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'Bangladesh population likely to stabilize at 20 crore by 2030'
Bangladesh Sangbad Sangstha (BSS)
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DHAKA, Nov 10, 2012 (BSS) -Bangladesh population is likely to stabilize at 200 million by 2030, much ahead of past predictions for 2050, a leading population scientist said here today.
"The population size of Bangladesh is likely to stabilize with a zero growth by 2030, when an estimated annual two million child births will be replaced by an equal number of deaths in the country," Ubaidur Rob, a Dhaka University visiting professor and the country director of Population Council, told BSS on the sidelines of an international conference on population and development here.
The Government and the Partners for Population and Development, an inter- governmental body, together organised the conference titled 'South-South Collaboration for ICPD Beyond 2014' at Ruposhi Bangla hotel here.
Ministers and high officials from 25 developing countries, including Indian Health Minister Golam Nabi Azad, are attending the two-day conference ending on Sunday. The event is expected to identify progress and achievements around the world as set out in the landmark International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) in Egypt in 1994.
Rob said Bangladesh has almost achieved replacement level of fertility of 2.1, down from 6.6 in early seventies, while four administrative divisions are already below the replacement level fertility. The annual child births are likely to come down to two million from an existing three million in next 20 years, while the total mortality would rise to two million from an average one million now, he said.
"So, the demographic and other indicators show that the country's population to stabilize at 200 million within 2030 when total births and deaths will be same," said the expert, adding, "this status quo would continue for another 30-40 years before it either reverses or goes otherwise."
Finance Minister Abul Mal Abdul Muhith, who opened the conference, has had a different view as he said the population increase would come to a halt by 2040 or 2050. He, however, said the family planning was on the right track, but it requires further attention with promotion of male sterilization and permanent methods.
Muhith dubbed population 'control' as one of the major development successes of Bangladesh since independence in 1971 and said the country was really overburdened with so many people in a small peace of land. Bangladesh is now world's densely populated country, after city states, he said adding the adverse impacts of climate change might turn it even denser further.
The finance minister reminded the delegates to promote a 'secular' or 'liberal' policy to promote family planning as Bangladesh has done in last 40 years. He also suggested resource mobilization, and ensure health and family welfare services both at the doorsteps of communities.
Indian Health Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad and Bangladesh Health and Family Welfare Minister Professor Dr Ruhal Haq both advocated for greater south-south collaboration in order to improve health and family for the majority, who live in developing world. They said collaboration among the developing countries, known as south-south collaboration, was a myth initially, but it has become a reality now.
Ghulam Azad said India was set to overtake China in terms of total population size and the government has been promoting programmes for birth spacing to keep population within limit. The involvement of males and family members were proved crucial to promote planned families around India and beyond, he said.
Delegates from different countries and international organizations made several presentations on programmes, challenges and outcomes on population in line with ICPD, which's 20 year strategy expires in 2014. They proposed different local, regional and world models for future, especially after 2015 when UN mandated development goals (MDGs) complete their first phase of implementation.
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'Bangladesh population likely to stabilize at 20 crore by 2030'
Bangladesh Sangbad Sangstha (BSS)
*
DHAKA, Nov 10, 2012 (BSS) -Bangladesh population is likely to stabilize at 200 million by 2030, much ahead of past predictions for 2050, a leading population scientist said here today.
"The population size of Bangladesh is likely to stabilize with a zero growth by 2030, when an estimated annual two million child births will be replaced by an equal number of deaths in the country," Ubaidur Rob, a Dhaka University visiting professor and the country director of Population Council, told BSS on the sidelines of an international conference on population and development here.
The Government and the Partners for Population and Development, an inter- governmental body, together organised the conference titled 'South-South Collaboration for ICPD Beyond 2014' at Ruposhi Bangla hotel here.
Ministers and high officials from 25 developing countries, including Indian Health Minister Golam Nabi Azad, are attending the two-day conference ending on Sunday. The event is expected to identify progress and achievements around the world as set out in the landmark International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) in Egypt in 1994.
Rob said Bangladesh has almost achieved replacement level of fertility of 2.1, down from 6.6 in early seventies, while four administrative divisions are already below the replacement level fertility. The annual child births are likely to come down to two million from an existing three million in next 20 years, while the total mortality would rise to two million from an average one million now, he said.
"So, the demographic and other indicators show that the country's population to stabilize at 200 million within 2030 when total births and deaths will be same," said the expert, adding, "this status quo would continue for another 30-40 years before it either reverses or goes otherwise."
Finance Minister Abul Mal Abdul Muhith, who opened the conference, has had a different view as he said the population increase would come to a halt by 2040 or 2050. He, however, said the family planning was on the right track, but it requires further attention with promotion of male sterilization and permanent methods.
Muhith dubbed population 'control' as one of the major development successes of Bangladesh since independence in 1971 and said the country was really overburdened with so many people in a small peace of land. Bangladesh is now world's densely populated country, after city states, he said adding the adverse impacts of climate change might turn it even denser further.
The finance minister reminded the delegates to promote a 'secular' or 'liberal' policy to promote family planning as Bangladesh has done in last 40 years. He also suggested resource mobilization, and ensure health and family welfare services both at the doorsteps of communities.
Indian Health Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad and Bangladesh Health and Family Welfare Minister Professor Dr Ruhal Haq both advocated for greater south-south collaboration in order to improve health and family for the majority, who live in developing world. They said collaboration among the developing countries, known as south-south collaboration, was a myth initially, but it has become a reality now.
Ghulam Azad said India was set to overtake China in terms of total population size and the government has been promoting programmes for birth spacing to keep population within limit. The involvement of males and family members were proved crucial to promote planned families around India and beyond, he said.
Delegates from different countries and international organizations made several presentations on programmes, challenges and outcomes on population in line with ICPD, which's 20 year strategy expires in 2014. They proposed different local, regional and world models for future, especially after 2015 when UN mandated development goals (MDGs) complete their first phase of implementation.
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you know what happen when countries expand for resources 
