Bangladesh outshines neighbours, ADB forecasts 6.9pc GDP growth this fiscal

[UKBengali]

Good policy from the government.

Ideally there should be HSR between major division level cities, like Dhaka, Chittagong, Sylhet, Rajshahi, Barrisal etc. Begin with the route between Dhaka and Chittagong.

If there are car factories they should be export oriented. Private cars ownership should be discouraged. Public transport and bicycle is optimal for BD.

If BD goverment allows car factories then there would be a immense pressure to allow cars to be sold locally.

No need and BD has plenty of other industries to provide the needed skilled jobs.

 

[mb444]

Bangladesh is a very special country.
In the coming decades people will understand what i mean. Its practically worlds largest metropolitan area. By many standards one can consider entire BD to be a continious human habitat.

So Bangladeshi people dont prioritize car.
Goverment dont want people to buy cars.
Road system is not built to handle massive private owned cars.

If it was up to me i would have banned ownership of private cars and gone all in with massive public transport development. Bangladesh is the perfect country for Intercity railways, buss lines, Metro, trams etc.

Hopefylly the government of BD can develop 10-20 cluster of mega megacity outside Dhaka.

This is patently not true. See below road for every 100 square km data globally.

https://www.nationmaster.com/countr...ensity/Km-of-road-per-100-sq.-km-of-land-area

BD requires roads and private transports to thrive. Only reason the govt has kept private ownership of cars low as we had no capacity to produce them incountry. As this industry develops so should tarrif and para-tarrifs be bought down.

Rapid increase in ownership of motorcycles followed by private cars is what has happened everywhere else and BD will follow suit.

There are reasons to have public transport such as trains, trams and what not, but that can not solve all issues. Private vehicles and public transports must complement to serve the overall need of a growing and developing economy.

 

[Surya 1]

Only country that did not have its economy contract during Covid

Bengali exceptionalism perhaps?

Mind you, Bangladesh is not exactly outshining its neighbors with regard to the growth rate. The average growth rate of south Asia for 2022 is 7%. Bangladesh's projected growth is 0.1% lower than that.=

According to ADB's data, Bangladesh is expected to grow by 6.9% in FY22, and 7.1% in FY22. India is expected to grow to 8.9% in 7.5% in FY22, and as high as 8% in FY23. Partially due to their colossal dip in 2023 and the corresponding recovery, but also because they're much more industrialized. I think post-2023, both countries will have a similar growth rate, if not slightly higher for Bangladesh (at least going by Oct 2021 IMF outlook).

With exports soaring, the growth rate may exceed 7% this year, assuming domestic consumption recovers. But we will probably still grow slower than India until 2023. But Bangladesh's growth rate historically (even in the last 12 years) were a lot more stable

The good thing about BD is that they compete for progress. They are not in a competition to be a more Islamic nation than Arabs. This is the reason why I like BD and never discourage our BD friends by saying them that their whole country's export is not even 2/3 rd of the export of one Indian company or their whole country's market capitalization is less than may compaies of India or BD is nowhere in Unicorn start up or their defence budget is not even half of the valuation of IPL. However, BD is on the path of progress. Their tomorrow eill always better than their today.

 

[satyamev]

BD is doing well focussing on its economy and putting its nose to the grindstone.
The only intangible is that being a democracy, a new government might not be so laser focused on growth and jobs like the present one.
India's problem is too much freedom in the hands of incompetent state governments. States like Bengal, attracting negligible investment and only blaming the center for everything. This is led by a woman who ejected a half built tata auto plant from Bengal. Gujarat grabbed it with both hands. Tata is growing very fast now in India.
Then we have states like Punjab with their politics and governance from the 70s. No growth industries, just looking for government jobs or migrating to work as labor abroad. Always asking for handouts.
Then UP with its devisive CM , doing some good job in infrastructure and direct aid to the poor but losing out on massive investment due to maverick behavior.
Some places in India have very high standards of living, while some are 2 centuries behind.
Bane of India is over population and unequal growth.

 

[UKBengali]

The good thing about BD is that they compete for progress. They are not in a competition to be a more Islamic nation than Arabs. This is the reason why I like BD and never discourage our BD friends by saying them that their whole country's export is not even 2/3 rd of the export of one Indian company or their whole country's market capitalization is less than may compaies of India or BD is nowhere in Unicorn start up or their defence budget is not even half of the valuation of IPL. However, BD is on the path of progress. Their tomorrow eill always better than their today.

BD will hit 55-60 billion US dollars exports this year and so your data is out of date. Sure that is the around the total exports of Reliance industries but that is just mainly oil and gas and not industrial products.


Food for thought - Over the last 15 years BD GDP per capita nominal has risen from half to equal India's.

 

[Indos]

BD will hit 55-60 billion US dollars exports this year and so your data is out of date. Sure that is the around the total exports of Reliance industries but that is just mainly oil and gas and not industrial products.


Food for thought - Over the last 15 years BD GDP per caputa nominal as risen from half to equal India's.

Just for addition, refinery business actually has lower margin, much of their revenue will go to Saudi, UAE, and other oil exporting countries.

 

[UKBengali]

Just for addition, refinery business actually has lower margin, much of their revenue will go to Saudi, UAE, and other oil exporting countries.

Exactly as otherwise India will be more wealthier country - probably on the level of Indonesia.

 

[Surya 1]

BD will hit 55-60 billion US dollars exports this year and so your data is out of date. Sure that is the around the total exports of Reliance industries but that is just mainly oil and gas and not industrial products.


Food for thought - Over the last 15 years BD GDP per capita nominal as risen from half to equal India's.

That is why I love BD and consider it to be a very progressive country. I love Bengali culture.

BD is doing well focussing on its economy and putting its nose to the grindstone.
The only intangible is that being a democracy, a new government might not be so laser focused on growth and jobs like the present one.
India's problem is too much freedom in the hands of incompetent state governments. States like Bengal, attracting negligible investment and only blaming the center for everything. This is led by a woman who ejected a half built tata auto plant from Bengal. Gujarat grabbed it with both hands. Tata is growing very fast now in India.
Then we have states like Punjab with their politics and governance from the 70s. No growth industries, just looking for government jobs or migrating to work as labor abroad. Always asking for handouts.
Then UP with its devisive CM , doing some good job in infrastructure and direct aid to the poor but losing out on massive investment due to maverick behavior.
Some places in India have very high standards of living, while some are 2 centuries behind.
Bane of India is over population and unequal growth.

Mamta made Tatas leave WB. Modi wrote Suswagatam (Well come). Today, Gujarat Produces 1/3rd of the cars produced in India.

BD is doing well focussing on its economy and putting its nose to the grindstone.
The only intangible is that being a democracy, a new government might not be so laser focused on growth and jobs like the present one.
India's problem is too much freedom in the hands of incompetent state governments. States like Bengal, attracting negligible investment and only blaming the center for everything. This is led by a woman who ejected a half built tata auto plant from Bengal. Gujarat grabbed it with both hands. Tata is growing very fast now in India.
Then we have states like Punjab with their politics and governance from the 70s. No growth industries, just looking for government jobs or migrating to work as labor abroad. Always asking for handouts.
Then UP with its devisive CM , doing some good job in infrastructure and direct aid to the poor but losing out on massive investment due to maverick behavior.
Some places in India have very high standards of living, while some are 2 centuries behind.
Bane of India is over population and unequal growth.

Mamta made Tatas leave WB. Modi wrote Suswagatam (Well come). Today, Gujarat Produces 1/3rd of the cars produced in India. Gujjus know how to business. In US, Indian family's income is more than double the national average and Gujju's family income is 3 times. They have US's more than half of the motels worth Hundreds of Billion USD. For Gujarati's relations have prime importance.

 

[UKBengali]

That is why I love BD and consider it to be a very progressive country. I love Bengali culture.

I think that BD and India are moving to a very beneficial economic relationship now.

Exports from BD to India are likely to hit 2 billion US dollars from just 1 billion 3 years ago, transit has been arranged for electricity from hydroelectric plants in Nepal and I think Bhutan to BD.

People should not worry too much about the still huge massive trade deficit with India as due to geography, BD will probably forever be reliant on imports of agricultural products from India running into the many billions of dollars every year.

As long as India opens it's markets to BD in a fair manner which it increasingly seems to be doing then that should make the relationship advantageous to both parties.

 

[Wergeland]

I think that BD and India are moving to a very beneficial economic relationship now.

Exports from BD to India are likely to hit 2 billion US dollars from just 1 billion 3 years ago, transit has been arranged for electricity from hydroelectric plants in Nepal and I think Bhutan to BD.

People should not worry too much about the still huge massive trade deficit with India as due to geography, BD will probably forever be reliant on imports of agricultural products from India running into the many billions of dollars every year.

As long as India opens it's markets to BD in a fair manner which it increasingly seems to be doing then that should make the relationship advantageous to both parties.

There is no reason BD and India should or would become enemies.
Mutual beneficial trade relationship is the way to go.

But the relationship has to be grounded on respect on a fundamental level.
That mean no more hate speech against Bengali people from Indian parlamentarians.
No more one-sided trade practices.

 

[UKBengali]

There is no reason BD and India should or would become enemies.
Mutual beneficial trade relationship is the way to go.

But the relationship has to be grounded on respect on a fundamental level.
That mean no more hate speech against Bengali people from Indian parlamentarians.
No more one-sided trade practices.

I truly believe that both BD and India are on the same page as regards mutually beneficial economic relationship.

India has probably realised that imposing unjustified tariffs on BD exports will only harm it in the end as it's industry becomes more uncompetitive and delivers sub-par products at higher prices.

2 billion US dollars of exports to India is higher than all countries bar developed Western ones like USA and Germany. The growth rate over the last 3 years has been 20-30% a year and if this continues then India could be one of the top 5 export markets for BD in the latter part of the 2020s.


Friction-free trade between India, BD, Nepal and Bhutan can only raise the economies of the 4 countries for mutual benefits.

 

[satyamev]

There is no reason BD and India should or would become enemies.
Mutual beneficial trade relationship is the way to go.

But the relationship has to be grounded on respect on a fundamental level.
That mean no more hate speech against Bengali people from Indian parlamentarians.
No more one-sided trade practices.

If only politicians had brains and principles.
For short term electoral gains , its common to create issues.
But Bangladeshis should look at the on the ground cooperation and deals which the 2 countries have made since the present government came to power. Some quite in blatant favor of Bangladesh.
Issue is of usa and China trying to get footholds in BD , usa by using human rights and China through money.
The present bd government is practical and has handled both countries well till now.
Not given to over reaction.

 

[Bilal9]

BD is doing well focussing on its economy and putting its nose to the grindstone.
The only intangible is that being a democracy, a new government might not be so laser focused on growth and jobs like the present one.
India's problem is too much freedom in the hands of incompetent state governments. States like Bengal, attracting negligible investment and only blaming the center for everything. This is led by a woman who ejected a half built tata auto plant from Bengal. Gujarat grabbed it with both hands. Tata is growing very fast now in India.
Then we have states like Punjab with their politics and governance from the 70s. No growth industries, just looking for government jobs or migrating to work as labor abroad. Always asking for handouts.
Then UP with its devisive CM , doing some good job in infrastructure and direct aid to the poor but losing out on massive investment due to maverick behavior.
Some places in India have very high standards of living, while some are 2 centuries behind.
Bane of India is over population and unequal growth.

What you have stated are more or less factual.

However I'd like to point out that having multiple states with differing industrial policies (like WB example you mentioned) are also a bane to growth in India. Getting containerized export goods from one state to another state just to put on a ship presents multiple bureaucratic blocks which cost a lot of time and effort.

I ordered something from India via Internet recently and India is the only large country which has no workable tracking in its postal system (China of course does with multiple hundreds of private carriers). These are issues which need to be looked at.

Most of the time govts. in South Asia are a hindrance to industrial growth - just so happens we got lucky in Bangladesh that industrialists were able to manipulate politicians successfully to get growth accomplished somewhat easier over the last couple of decades. Lack of red tape and worker laws also helped. in Export zones - one cannot form unions or conduct work stoppage for any reason.

India is a self-contained economy producing and selling things largely for its own consumption. Exports are not a critical thing to Indian economy IMHO, but to countries like Bangladesh, it is vital and a major component of the economy.

The secret to China's export success is of course strong central govt. control and swift adaptation to market demand in export manufacturing, both helped by focused govt. processes and functionaries.