Bangladesh keen for establishing road, rail links with China, ASEAN countries

[Shorisrip]

India and MM already accepted the Asian Highway route from Kolkata to Dhaka/Sylhet to MM. There is no way India will not allow access of Chinese goods in this route in MM.

However, the long term benefits will come not from roads and highways, but from building railway connections that can transport goods at cheaper prices.

According to the feasibility study, it is 8-10 Taka per Km or around 2000-2500 Taka, which is reasonable when buses currently charge 1500-2000 Taka for 6-8 hours of travel. The project of course should not be a priority given we're missing a lot of other infrastructures that are badly needed. However, this is definitely a right step in the future, and it may not be needed now, but in 2030 onwards we're going to require it as consumption and purchasing power grows. The project at the earliest will be completed by 2032 from what I can see so I don't think it's a bad idea at all.

 

[bluesky]

Goodness 12,000 lol ?

Idek when this projects construction will start or finish , if it took years to do a MRT then idk how long this project might take.

Do you think with such a weak economy Bd can start such a project? As usual, it is a hoodwinking project without reality. Instead, Hasina Bibi should initiate double tracking of Dhaka-Chittagong railway line for which people have been waiting for the last 73 years.

Even then, one might ask if it is also necessary. The issue is if there will be enough passengers to pay for the construction. However, freight trains for export-import will be there to compensate the cost of construction.

Here Bullet trains run every 10-15 minutes with about 1300 passengers each time. It is a non-starter for a poor BD.

According to the feasibility study, it is 8-10 Taka per Km or around 2000-2500 Taka, which is reasonable when buses currently charge 1500-2000 Taka for 6-8 hours of travel. The project of course should not be a priority given we're missing a lot of other infrastructures that are badly needed. However, this is definitely a right step in the future, and it may not be needed now, but in 2030 onwards we're going to require it as consumption and purchasing power grows. The project at the earliest will be completed by 2032 from what I can see so I don't think it's a bad idea at all.

You are right. But, do you really think people from China, BD, ASEAN and India would travel in thousands if the AH is built.

I believe it will be cargo that will cross the borders in big number. People in this part of the world have little propensity to travel to other countries like it is in a smaller Europe.

 

[idune]

The project of course should not be a priority given we're missing a lot of other infrastructures that are badly needed. However, this is definitely a right step in the future, and it may not be needed now,

This Bangladesh-China connectivity project has utmost strategic importance and infact late already. Take a tour to the area, relevant infra, including widening N1 highway to Gundam is ongoing, major bridge construction over Bashkhali river is underway, Chittagong-coxsbazar road widening also underway. Marine drive upto Teknaf end point will be widen into 4 lanes. So, infra is progressing but at slow pace. Even for for turism and national security pupose these infa need to be built on priority basis. In short, this project has far more importance than Purbachal tri tower and projects facilatating indian transit.

 

[Dark1]

India and MM already accepted the Asian Highway route from Kolkata to Dhaka/Sylhet to Indian NE to MM. There is no way India will not allow access of Chinese goods in this route in MM.

However, the long term benefits will come not from roads and highways, but from building railway connections that can transport goods at cheaper prices.

Transport goods ? From Bangladesh to China or just in one direction ?
BD has the textile industry as its main export, while China is the world's largest textile producer.
So what exactly will BD export after investing billions in the project ?
Unless the aim is to give fast and easy access to Chinese goods , then its fine.
No magic will happen after 5 years .

 

[SpaceMan18]

Do you think with such a weak economy Bd can start such a project? As usual, it is a hoodwinking project without reality. Instead, Hasina Bibi should initiate double tracking of Dhaka-Chittagong railway line for which people have been waiting for the last 73 years.

Even then, one might ask if it is also necessary. The issue is if there will be enough passengers to pay for the construction. However, freight trains for export-import will be there to compensate the cost of construction.

Here Bullet trains run every 10-15 minutes with about 1300 passengers each time. It is a non-starter for a poor BD.

You are right. But, do you really think people from China, BD, ASEAN and India would travel in thousands if the AH is built.

I believe it will be cargo that will cross the borders in big number. People in this part of the world have little propensity to travel to other countries like it is in a smaller Europe.

12 billion dollars over a bullet train seems odd, with that money we can do something else with it.

Heck even get our MRCA aircrafts too lol

 

[Shorisrip]

This Bangladesh-China connectivity project has utmost strategic importance and infact late already. Take a tour to the area, relevant infra, including widening N1 highway to Gundam is ongoing, major bridge construction over Bashkhali river is underway, Chittagong-coxsbazar road widening also underway. Marine drive upto Teknaf end point will be widen into 4 lanes. So, infra is progressing but at slow pace. Even for for turism and national security pupose these infa need to be built on priority basis. In short, this project has far more importance than Purbachal tri tower and projects facilatating indian transit.

I'm talking about the high speed railway/bullet train project from Dhaka to Cox's Bazar, which isn't a priority for the Trans-Asian railway. Most countries in Asia don't operate high speed trains, nor do countries like Myanmar or North-east Indian states even have the capacity to. The project will cost 10-11 billion $ (vast majority of it going to land acquisition and relocation) so its not a priority as of now. The project will likely be completed in 2030s anyway.

 

[SpaceMan18]

I'm talking about the high speed railway/bullet train project from Dhaka to Cox's Bazar, which isn't a priority for the Trans-Asian railway. Most countries in Asia don't operate high speed trains, nor do countries like Myanmar or North-east Indian states even have the capacity to. The project will cost 10-11 billion $ (vast majority of it going to land acquisition and relocation) so its not a priority as of now. The project will likely be completed in 2030s anyway.

Eh not 2030 , I feel like since we aren't making pillars like the MRT and just laying the tracks the project might be quicker. Just making the stations might take time

 

[idune]

I'm talking about the high speed railway/bullet train project from Dhaka to Cox's Bazar, which isn't a priority for the Trans-Asian railway. Most countries in Asia don't operate high speed trains, nor do countries like Myanmar or North-east Indian states even have the capacity to. The project will cost 10-11 billion $ (vast majority of it going to land acquisition and relocation) so its not a priority as of now. The project will likely be completed in 2030s anyway.

Yes, agree on high speed train project, it should not be priority. Normal train with better line condition, better service, cleanliness and timeliness will be suffice for now, that is if they can achieve that.

 

[mb444]

Transport goods ? From Bangladesh to China or just in one direction ?
BD has the textile industry as its main export, while China is the world's largest textile producer.
So what exactly will BD export after investing billions in the project ?
Unless the aim is to give fast and easy access to Chinese goods , then its fine.
No magic will happen after 5 years .

I am certain goods and people will flow in both direction, not only from BD but perhaps from NE india and MM.

I am all for this. Greater communication and linkages are always good.

 

[Dark1]

I am certain goods and people will flow in both direction, not only from BD but perhaps from NE india and MM.

I am all for this. Greater communication and linkages are always good.

Very naive answer . How are you sure ?
Will the rail connection suddenly create millions of Chinese customers for BD produced goods ?
Or will the Chinese government start hoarding BD goods to help out BD exports ?
A lot of CPEC road connections are complete. Do you see the exponential increase in export of goods from.pakistan to China happening ? The use here will be mostly strategic.
When a transport facility opens , the target should be clear . Its either passengers or goods or it can be strategic as in the case of CPEC.
Chinese goods will surely flow into BD. Nothing wrong in that , as BOP on individual country basis is not good economics.
So if Chinese want BD as a easily accessible market, let them totally underwrite the project. Minimal investment from government of BD.

 

[mb444]

Very naive answer . How are you sure ?
Will the rail connection suddenly create millions of Chinese customers for BD produced goods ?
Or will the Chinese government start hoarding BD goods to help out BD exports ?
A lot of CPEC road connections are complete. Do you see the exponential increase in export of goods from.pakistan to China happening ? The use here will be mostly strategic.
When a transport facility opens , the target should be clear . Its either passengers or goods or it can be strategic as in the case of CPEC.
Chinese goods will surely flow into BD. Nothing wrong in that , as BOP on individual country basis is not good economics.
So if Chinese want BD as a easily accessible market, let them totally underwrite the project. Minimal investment from government of BD.

You are viewing this from an adversarial strategic lense.

BD will not invest in something without undertaking a cost benefit analysis. CPEC is more than economics for China and PK so not an applicable example.

China is an important country, perhaps the most important country for BD but that does not mean BD will implement a vanity project.

There are many reasons to believe the project may be viable for the following reasons:

- Sunset industries from China is relocating and will continue to relocate from china to BD.
- BD certaintly would want increase in people to people contacts.
-BDs currently exports over a billion dollars worth of goods per year and raising. These are transported to China by sea or air. Rail would offer a faster option than sea and cheaper option than air. Rail option will make many more products viable for export.
- Will improve logistics linkages between Chinese and BD manufacturers opening up new avenues of economic partnership.
-China has now offered duty free access to 97% of BD goods. This can only increase BD exports to china.

Bottom line the proposal would be judged on its economic merit only. BD follows super conservative fiscal policy....there is no possibility whatsoever getting in any kind of debt trap, thats not how BD works. Our debt to GDP ratio is half that of india or pakistan and this wont change, it is BDs long term policy to maintain this ratio at or near 40% and this is not changing even in the covid scenario. It wont change for a rail line.

 

[Dark1]

You are viewing this from an adversarial strategic lense.

BD will not invest in something without undertaking a cost benefit analysis. CPEC is more than economics for China and PK so not an applicable example.

China is an important country, perhaps the most important country for BD but that does not mean BD will implement a vanity project.

There are many reasons to believe the project may be viable for the following reasons:

- Sunset industries from China is relocating and will continue to relocate from china to BD.
- BD certaintly would want increase in people to people contacts.
-BDs currently exports over a billion dollars worth of goods per year and raising. These are transported to China by sea or air. Rail would offer a faster option than sea and cheaper option than air. Rail option will make many more products viable for export.
- Will improve logistics linkages between Chinese and BD manufacturers opening up new avenues of economic partnership.
-China has now offered duty free access to 97% of BD goods. This can only increase BD exports to china.

Bottom line the proposal would be judged on its economic merit only. BD follows super conservative fiscal policy....there is no possibility whatsoever getting in any kind of debt trap, thats not how BD works. Our debt to GDP ratio is half that of india or pakistan and this wont change, it is BDs long term policy to maintain this ratio at or near 40% and this is not changing even in the covid scenario. It wont change for a rail line.

My reply was totally economics , nothing adverserial.
Only your last point is grounded , rest are head of state big talk. People to people contacts...

 

[idune]

My reply was totally economics , nothing adverserial.
Only your last point is grounded , rest are head of state big talk. People to people contacts...

You can keep your indian "economics" to yourself. Bangladesh neither needs advise nor subscribes to indian way of thinking. Besides, Bangladesh China connectivity through Myanmar has nothing to do with india.

 

[SpaceMan18]

My reply was totally economics , nothing adverserial.
Only your last point is grounded , rest are head of state big talk. People to people contacts...

Buddy this is about mostly Bangaldesh and China trade through Myanmar not really India.

Idk why India has to constantly stalk us

 

[bluesky]

Transport goods ? From Bangladesh to China or just in one direction ?
BD has the textile industry as its main export, while China is the world's largest textile producer.
So what exactly will BD export after investing billions in the project ?
Unless the aim is to give fast and easy access to Chinese goods , then its fine.
No magic will happen after 5 years .

A road that crosses international borders is meant for transporting goods both ways. We will export whatever China needs. China is not like Baniya India. It has already declared tax benefit for a few thousand items.

However, India will be most benefited once the Asian Highway connects Kolkata-BD-Indian NE-MM and China/ASEAN. Indian exports are supposed to rise. BUt, no one is sure of the quality produced by protein-less Indians. It is possible that more Chinese exports from Kunming area will flood Indian market. So, brace for it instead of worrying about what BD can export.