Babur Han
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Azerbaijan sees 'great war' risk with Armenia
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stratfor.com
Brief: Azerbaijan, Armenia Tensions Heating Up
February 25, 2010
Azerbaijani Defense Minister Safar Abiyev said Feb. 25 there is a serious threat of war between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabkh region, stating that “Azerbaijan cannot wait another 15 years for Karabakh conflict settlement. Now it is the army’s turn, and this threat is impending.” Abiyev said that “a great war in the South Caucasus is inevitable” if a settlement with Armenia has not been reached soon. STRATFOR has previously noted that tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia have been escalating due to negotiations between Armenia and Turkey over normalizing their relations without a clear settlement on the Nagorno-Karabkh issue between Baku and Yerevan. Indeed, Abiyev’s statement comes only days after senior Azerbaijani military officials were in Turkey to discuss the possibility of war and test Turkey’s commitment to their alliance. Azerbaijan has been in the process of building up its military in the event that a war between the two countries — last one was fought from 1988 to1994 — should erupt again. Though Azerbaijan has been held back by Russia, which has been increasing its influence with both Armenia and Azerbaijan and holds an interest in preventing military conflict in the region, Baku has made it clear that the current trajectory of stalled negotiations over the Nagorno-Karabakh region is unacceptable and that it will be willing to act if the situation is not changed.
Brief: Azerbaijan, Armenia Tensions Heating Up
February 25, 2010
Azerbaijani Defense Minister Safar Abiyev said Feb. 25 there is a serious threat of war between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabkh region, stating that “Azerbaijan cannot wait another 15 years for Karabakh conflict settlement. Now it is the army’s turn, and this threat is impending.” Abiyev said that “a great war in the South Caucasus is inevitable” if a settlement with Armenia has not been reached soon. STRATFOR has previously noted that tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia have been escalating due to negotiations between Armenia and Turkey over normalizing their relations without a clear settlement on the Nagorno-Karabkh issue between Baku and Yerevan. Indeed, Abiyev’s statement comes only days after senior Azerbaijani military officials were in Turkey to discuss the possibility of war and test Turkey’s commitment to their alliance. Azerbaijan has been in the process of building up its military in the event that a war between the two countries — last one was fought from 1988 to1994 — should erupt again. Though Azerbaijan has been held back by Russia, which has been increasing its influence with both Armenia and Azerbaijan and holds an interest in preventing military conflict in the region, Baku has made it clear that the current trajectory of stalled negotiations over the Nagorno-Karabakh region is unacceptable and that it will be willing to act if the situation is not changed.
Azerbaijan Should attack and Claim what is Rightfully Their's.One Thing that Pakistan has learned from Indians that Unless you have some solid Bargaining chip the Occupying side never vacates.
So this occupation by Armenia should end as soon as Possible.I have studied a little bit about this issue and Armenians are the Occupying Force.
So this occupation by Armenia should end as soon as Possible.I have studied a little bit about this issue and Armenians are the Occupying Force.
Marxist
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February 26–Azerbaijan stepped up its threats to win back Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenian-controlled territories surrounding it by force on Thursday, with Defense Minister Safar Abiyev speaking of a growing likelihood of “a great war” with Armenia.
“For 15 years diplomacy has not achieved any concrete results and Azerbaijan cannot wait another 15 years,” Abiyev said, according to an Azerbaijani Defense Ministry statement reported by local and international media.
“Now it’s the military’s turn and the threat is growing every day,” Abiyev was quoted as telling the French ambassador to Baku, Gabriel Keller. “If Armenia does not end its occupation of Azerbaijan’s territory, the beginning of a great war in the South Caucasus is
inevitable.”
Azerbaijani leaders and President Ilham Aliyev in particular have for years been threatening to resolve the Karabakh conflict by military means if the long-running Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiations fail to yield a settlement acceptable to Baku. Abiyev’s comments seemed to take this bellicose rhetoric, criticized by international mediators, up a notch.
Armenian leaders dismiss such threats. President Serzh Sarkisian warned late last month that an Azerbaijani assault on Armenia and Karabakh would trigger “serious counterattacks” with unspecified elements of surprise.
Defense Minister Seyran Ohanian issued a similar warning earlier in January. He said Armenian forces have significantly beefed up defense fortifications around Karabakh in recent years and are prepared for renewed fighting.
The mutual threats contrast with the American, French and Russian mediators’ hopes to broker an Armenian-Azerbaijani framework accord on Karabakh in the course of this year. “The understanding [between the conflicting parties] is growing and the number of issues that must be tackled by the top leaders is decreasing,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said early this month.
Still, the top U.S. intelligence official, Dennis Blair, warned just days before Lavrov’s statement that chances of another Armenian-Azerbaijani war have grown because of the U.S.-backed rapprochement between Armenia and Turkey strongly opposed by Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijan In New War Threat - Yerevan Report
“For 15 years diplomacy has not achieved any concrete results and Azerbaijan cannot wait another 15 years,” Abiyev said, according to an Azerbaijani Defense Ministry statement reported by local and international media.
“Now it’s the military’s turn and the threat is growing every day,” Abiyev was quoted as telling the French ambassador to Baku, Gabriel Keller. “If Armenia does not end its occupation of Azerbaijan’s territory, the beginning of a great war in the South Caucasus is
inevitable.”
Azerbaijani leaders and President Ilham Aliyev in particular have for years been threatening to resolve the Karabakh conflict by military means if the long-running Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiations fail to yield a settlement acceptable to Baku. Abiyev’s comments seemed to take this bellicose rhetoric, criticized by international mediators, up a notch.
Armenian leaders dismiss such threats. President Serzh Sarkisian warned late last month that an Azerbaijani assault on Armenia and Karabakh would trigger “serious counterattacks” with unspecified elements of surprise.
Defense Minister Seyran Ohanian issued a similar warning earlier in January. He said Armenian forces have significantly beefed up defense fortifications around Karabakh in recent years and are prepared for renewed fighting.
The mutual threats contrast with the American, French and Russian mediators’ hopes to broker an Armenian-Azerbaijani framework accord on Karabakh in the course of this year. “The understanding [between the conflicting parties] is growing and the number of issues that must be tackled by the top leaders is decreasing,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said early this month.
Still, the top U.S. intelligence official, Dennis Blair, warned just days before Lavrov’s statement that chances of another Armenian-Azerbaijani war have grown because of the U.S.-backed rapprochement between Armenia and Turkey strongly opposed by Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijan In New War Threat - Yerevan Report
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Old tactics of colonialims. They created tension between Pakistan and India over Kashmir so that these 2 countries will fight each other and use their power and energy against each other until Qayamat. Same things to Armenia and Azarbaijan, and also Tajikistan and Uzbekistan over Samarqand and Bukhara. Such a shame.
Marxist
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with both from the ancient times and still continues
S-2
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"Old tactics of colonialims."
What explains Azerbaijan's reaction to a Turkey-Armenia rapproachment? Baku seems upset at this possibility. How is that a "colonialist" tactic?
It seems odd to point fingers at colonialism for the inability of these nations in this region to find peace with one another despite decades of self-rule. None are the abject colonies of others nor have been since acquiring their independance from their COMMUNIST masters (hardly colonial unless you subscribe to a bizarre definition of neo-socialism).
These regional wars and disputes seem to have their roots in local irridentist intrigue and borders designed by the former USSR.
Thanks.
What explains Azerbaijan's reaction to a Turkey-Armenia rapproachment? Baku seems upset at this possibility. How is that a "colonialist" tactic?
It seems odd to point fingers at colonialism for the inability of these nations in this region to find peace with one another despite decades of self-rule. None are the abject colonies of others nor have been since acquiring their independance from their COMMUNIST masters (hardly colonial unless you subscribe to a bizarre definition of neo-socialism).
These regional wars and disputes seem to have their roots in local irridentist intrigue and borders designed by the former USSR.
Thanks.
Parashuram1
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And what is your definition of the fashion word "colonialism" here? It is more than 60 years I believe that any colonial power left your part of Asia--if we were to consider that Afghanistan was never occupied by any European forces for long and remained a free buffer zone between the Russian empire and the British.
The tension between each of these countries is a bilateral matter between two countries where neither Russia nor USA nor any European country has a part in. If you are talking about arms purchase, I think it has not sunk into some people; Europe, Russia and United States are the leading arms manufacturers in arms and weapons technology. All these 3 countries have state of the art technology, and it is not our problem if two countries want to use our technology to destroy each other. They give us money; we(Europe in this case as an example).
This is the problem with you Southwest and Central Asians---everything you have a problem with; starting with your government's corruption, to your mass poverty, to militancy, to hunger, to lack of development and social benefits--- you keep blaming outsiders instead of acknowledging your own faults, admitting and realizing what has been going on wrong in your countries, taking the initiative to get rid of wrong elements in your society and improving your country.
Until you take the responsibility of your own actions, your countries will continue going along the current path.
Parashuram1
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Don't view everything the same way as your conflict with New Delhi, friend. There is totally different situation between Baku and the Armenians. Currently, the tense situation between these two countries is considered by the world community as a matter where both can be blamed for a military result.
Negotiations and diplomacy is always the best soution.
Negotiations and diplomacy
We offered Armenians of Karabakh autonomy within Azerbaijan. Only thing Armenians want are to separate Karabakh from Azerbaijan and make it an "independent Republic". We will not let a second Armenian state to be created in our territorities. There is no diplomatic solution because the sides have completly different opinions.
Refugees should return to Upper Karabakh and occupied districts around it, and it should be an autonomous region of Azerbaijan. But Armenians there will be given every rights. Thats the only diplomatic solution. But Armenians are never going to agree, thats why there is no diplomatic solution.
We offered Armenians of Karabakh autonomy within Azerbaijan. Only thing Armenians want are to separate Karabakh from Azerbaijan and make it an "independent Republic". We will not let a second Armenian state to be created in our territorities. There is no diplomatic solution because the sides have completly different opinions.
Refugees should return to Upper Karabakh and occupied districts around it, and it should be an autonomous region of Azerbaijan. But Armenians there will be given every rights. Thats the only diplomatic solution. But Armenians are never going to agree, thats why there is no diplomatic solution.
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What i am about to say is bizarre but Practical.
There is no Peaceful Solution to this dispute and Especially because both countries do not have Nuclear Weapons so the Ideal Solution is war.Just Finish the Issue for good.
There is no Peaceful Solution to this dispute and Especially because both countries do not have Nuclear Weapons so the Ideal Solution is war.Just Finish the Issue for good.
Interesting, I find it very difficult situations after Georgia/Russia.
There are very serious matters in between Greece, Turkey, Armenia, and Azerbaijan than Pakistan/India only Kashmir.
Not only 1988-1994 wars, Amernia (backed by British) and Azerbaijan (backed by Turkey) war previously in between 1920-1922 in which Azerbaijan won battle in Nagorno-Karabakh region.
It was during 1918. Armenians had the Russian support aswell. Russians directly invaded Azerbaijan but we managed to kick them out and win the war against Armenians at the same time.
About Israel. Israel has no good relations with Armenia. Its the other way around. Israel are Azerbaijan's ally. Much of Azerbaijan's military hardware are purchased from Israel. Drones, MLRS systems, Tavor etc...
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Well, you know Iran? They help Armenia against us. And they call themselves "Islamic" Republic.
While our relations with Israel are only for our own interests.
I and all of us condemn Israel's actions against Palestinians, but like said, has nothing to do with our relations.
Especially when there are hypocrites around like "Islamic" Republic of Iran.
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