Hassan Al-Somal
SENIOR MEMBER
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In 2015, several Syrian rebel forces led by Jaish Al-Fateh (Army of Conquest) seized Idlib province. Assad forces were routed. These rebel forces were about to overran Damascus; however, on September 30, 2015, Russia had militarily intervened in the conflict and save Assad regime from being defeated and driven out of power.
It looks like similar thing happened here. The Azerbaijani forces has recently overran Shusha and were about to overrun Khankendi (the capital). The Lancin corridor was also about to be cut-off. The Armenians were fleeing Khankendi. Their troops in Agdam and Aghere were cut off from getting any supplies and were under pressure from the Azerbaijani forces. The Armenians in Nagorno-Karabagh were on the brink of a military defeat.
Then suddenly this "treaty" was announced, where the Russians are supposed to take positions in deconflicting lines. The Russian's mercenary contracting firm Wagner was present in Shusha and were assisting the Armenian forces. So the crux of the matter is Russia had intervened in this conflict, and it looks like after the review of its options, Azerbaijani leadership has calculated they'll take this treaty given the prospect of a war with Russia and its impact on Azerbaijan proper.
It looks like similar thing happened here. The Azerbaijani forces has recently overran Shusha and were about to overrun Khankendi (the capital). The Lancin corridor was also about to be cut-off. The Armenians were fleeing Khankendi. Their troops in Agdam and Aghere were cut off from getting any supplies and were under pressure from the Azerbaijani forces. The Armenians in Nagorno-Karabagh were on the brink of a military defeat.
Then suddenly this "treaty" was announced, where the Russians are supposed to take positions in deconflicting lines. The Russian's mercenary contracting firm Wagner was present in Shusha and were assisting the Armenian forces. So the crux of the matter is Russia had intervened in this conflict, and it looks like after the review of its options, Azerbaijani leadership has calculated they'll take this treaty given the prospect of a war with Russia and its impact on Azerbaijan proper.
this is clearly fantasy. But I don’t know how you can justify this fantasy and why there is a need to lie about this. Nobody will overthrow aliyev because of this agreement.
Azerbaijan gets 65.5% of the occupied lands. This is so easily verifiable. Again. It’s not that bad comparing to what it had 6 weeks ago.
Azerbaijani sovereignty over 35% is very revocable. It can’t even enter the area. It can’t implement its laws there and it has no sovereignty or control over 35% of the disputed area.
the only difference now is that 90% of karabakh is no longer occupied by Armenia. It is occupied by Russia which will fight a war with Azerbaijan if Azerbaijan tries to recover it’s occupied 3,900 sq km of land.
this may be cause for celebration in Baku, but I do not think it is a good thing. It is not me that will have to fight russia. Thank god russia is 2,000 km away from my country.
yes you can ask russia to leave. Ukraine asked russia to leave a leased base in Sevastapol. Very soon after, it had little green men invading Crimea and Donbas and fighting for ancient Russian lands.
Aliyev of all people should know this. But he decided to play Russian roulette when he had Turkish and Pakistani backing.
maybe it’s a good deal. But be honest about what the deal is. No point hiding it. It will all surface sooner or later.
AZE has met perhaps 100% of its unstated objectives. But it has met only 65.5% of its stated objectives. (To free its land from occupation).
you can trade with no taxes if your good are jsut transiting a country like Georgia to get to turkey.
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