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Autonomous NEPRA, SBP a must to revive IMF deal

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Autonomous NEPRA, SBP a must to revive IMF deal
Pakistan will have to amend two laws to meet loan conditions


Shahbaz RanaNovember 13, 2020

an-afp-file-image-of-imf-logo

An AFP file image of IMF logo
ISLAMABAD:
In a bid to qualify for the third loan tranche of International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme, Pakistan will have to amend two laws to give autonomy to the central bank and legal mandate to the power sector regulator for notifying new electricity prices.
“Amendments to the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) Act and the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Act are expected to become prior actions for the approval of second review of the Fund programme,” said Kamran Afzal, special secretary and spokesman for the Ministry of Finance.
These two prior actions are in addition to the two main outstanding issues of new taxation measures and increase in power tariffs, said the finance ministry spokesman.
In an interaction with journalists on Wednesday, Afzal refrained from giving a definite timeline for reaching consensus with the IMF on all the outstanding issues. The consensus is a prerequisite to securing approval of the third loan tranche of roughly $450 million that as per the original schedule had to be approved in February this year.
Pakistan had entered into a $6 billion IMF programme in July last year but the programme derailed after the government refused to introduce a mini-budget and increase power tariffs.
In February, the government had asked the IMF to delay these measures till June. But due to the adverse impact of Covid-19 on the economy, Prime Minister Imran Khan again decided against taking these drastic steps.
According to original schedule of the IMF loan programme, by now Pakistan and the IMF should have begun preparations for the fourth review and the fifth loan tranche. So far, the IMF has disbursed roughly $1.5 billion in two tranches.
To a question about making amendments to the SBP Act and Nepra Act as prior actions instead of retaining them as structural benchmarks, Afzal said that there had also been incidences in the past where the missed structural benchmarks became prior actions.
It was the condition of the IMF under the bailout package to submit Nepra Act amendments in parliament by the end of December 2019 and amendments to the SBP Act in parliament by March 31, 2020.
“The government is in consultation with the IMF on the timing of some of the structural benchmarks,” said the special secretary finance. He said that the IMF and Pakistan were moving towards “some consensus”.
The government is still not in the negotiation phase with the IMF rather the engagements are “advisory” in nature, said the special secretary.
Afzal said that the second wave of Covid-19 had put so many things in a difficult situation. But he said that first signs of economic growth were emerging with the large-scale manufacturing sector growth turning positive.
Nepra amendments
In January this year, the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) of the cabinet had approved draft amendments to the Regulation of Generation, Transmission and Distribution of Electric Power Act 1997, generally known as the Nepra Act.
The amendments have been proposed to stop the recurrence of circular debt that stood at Rs2.15 trillion by June, including the addition of nearly Rs1.1 trillion during the PTI government’s first two years in power.
However, the problem with the amendments is that the debt, which is piling up because of government’s failure to ensure full recovery of electricity bills and control theft, will be paid by the consumers in the shape of tariffs and surcharges. These proposed amendments, if approved by parliament, carry far-reaching implications for those consumers who regularly pay their electricity bills.
One of the most important amendments has been proposed in Section 31 of the 1997 law that sets new parameters for determination of annual, quarterly and monthly tariffs by limiting the government’s powers to withhold notifications and passing on inefficiencies to the consumers.
The federal government will have to notify the annual tariff within one month and if it fails to do so, Nepra will automatically notify the changes in the official gazette, according to the proposal. In case of quarterly adjustments, the government will have to notify new tariffs within 15 days or else the job will be done by Nepra.
SBP Act
A draft bill prepared by the central bank seeks greater autonomy with no responsibility.
The SBP has proposed that it will be responsible for only price stability and has sought to abolish the dual objective of controlling inflation and supporting economic growth.
The central bank has moved the proposal as part of amendments to the SBP Act of 1956 but the term “price stability” has been kept vague to avoid full responsibility.
Under the existing law, the central bank is responsible for price stability and supporting economic growth. However, it has now proposed that inflation targeting would be its core objective but the amendments fall short of the goal.
The SBP wants the abolition of finance minister-led Monetary and Fiscal Policies Coordination Board, an end to the role of federal government in quasi-fiscal operations, the removal of secretary finance from the SBP board, a five-year secured term for the governor with an option to extend it by another five years and almost no option to remove him before the expiry of the term.
The SBP’s draft bill has also been reviewed by the Cabinet Committee on Legislative Cases (CCLC) where some federal ministers objected to giving unchecked powers to the central bank, a cabinet member told The Express Tribune in April this year.
=======================


what this means is that govt will no longer be able to manipulate growth via note printing
and power cost via circular debt(i.e delay increasing tarrifs without subsidy in budget)

these things should be already be in princple approved but the govt is in tough place economically
 
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Autonomous NEPRA, SBP a must to revive IMF deal
Pakistan will have to amend two laws to meet loan conditions


Shahbaz RanaNovember 13, 2020

an-afp-file-image-of-imf-logo

An AFP file image of IMF logo
ISLAMABAD:
In a bid to qualify for the third loan tranche of International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme, Pakistan will have to amend two laws to give autonomy to the central bank and legal mandate to the power sector regulator for notifying new electricity prices.
“Amendments to the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) Act and the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Act are expected to become prior actions for the approval of second review of the Fund programme,” said Kamran Afzal, special secretary and spokesman for the Ministry of Finance.
These two prior actions are in addition to the two main outstanding issues of new taxation measures and increase in power tariffs, said the finance ministry spokesman.
In an interaction with journalists on Wednesday, Afzal refrained from giving a definite timeline for reaching consensus with the IMF on all the outstanding issues. The consensus is a prerequisite to securing approval of the third loan tranche of roughly $450 million that as per the original schedule had to be approved in February this year.
Pakistan had entered into a $6 billion IMF programme in July last year but the programme derailed after the government refused to introduce a mini-budget and increase power tariffs.
In February, the government had asked the IMF to delay these measures till June. But due to the adverse impact of Covid-19 on the economy, Prime Minister Imran Khan again decided against taking these drastic steps.
According to original schedule of the IMF loan programme, by now Pakistan and the IMF should have begun preparations for the fourth review and the fifth loan tranche. So far, the IMF has disbursed roughly $1.5 billion in two tranches.
To a question about making amendments to the SBP Act and Nepra Act as prior actions instead of retaining them as structural benchmarks, Afzal said that there had also been incidences in the past where the missed structural benchmarks became prior actions.
It was the condition of the IMF under the bailout package to submit Nepra Act amendments in parliament by the end of December 2019 and amendments to the SBP Act in parliament by March 31, 2020.
“The government is in consultation with the IMF on the timing of some of the structural benchmarks,” said the special secretary finance. He said that the IMF and Pakistan were moving towards “some consensus”.
The government is still not in the negotiation phase with the IMF rather the engagements are “advisory” in nature, said the special secretary.
Afzal said that the second wave of Covid-19 had put so many things in a difficult situation. But he said that first signs of economic growth were emerging with the large-scale manufacturing sector growth turning positive.
Nepra amendments
In January this year, the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) of the cabinet had approved draft amendments to the Regulation of Generation, Transmission and Distribution of Electric Power Act 1997, generally known as the Nepra Act.
The amendments have been proposed to stop the recurrence of circular debt that stood at Rs2.15 trillion by June, including the addition of nearly Rs1.1 trillion during the PTI government’s first two years in power.
However, the problem with the amendments is that the debt, which is piling up because of government’s failure to ensure full recovery of electricity bills and control theft, will be paid by the consumers in the shape of tariffs and surcharges. These proposed amendments, if approved by parliament, carry far-reaching implications for those consumers who regularly pay their electricity bills.
One of the most important amendments has been proposed in Section 31 of the 1997 law that sets new parameters for determination of annual, quarterly and monthly tariffs by limiting the government’s powers to withhold notifications and passing on inefficiencies to the consumers.
The federal government will have to notify the annual tariff within one month and if it fails to do so, Nepra will automatically notify the changes in the official gazette, according to the proposal. In case of quarterly adjustments, the government will have to notify new tariffs within 15 days or else the job will be done by Nepra.
SBP Act
A draft bill prepared by the central bank seeks greater autonomy with no responsibility.
The SBP has proposed that it will be responsible for only price stability and has sought to abolish the dual objective of controlling inflation and supporting economic growth.
The central bank has moved the proposal as part of amendments to the SBP Act of 1956 but the term “price stability” has been kept vague to avoid full responsibility.
Under the existing law, the central bank is responsible for price stability and supporting economic growth. However, it has now proposed that inflation targeting would be its core objective but the amendments fall short of the goal.
The SBP wants the abolition of finance minister-led Monetary and Fiscal Policies Coordination Board, an end to the role of federal government in quasi-fiscal operations, the removal of secretary finance from the SBP board, a five-year secured term for the governor with an option to extend it by another five years and almost no option to remove him before the expiry of the term.
The SBP’s draft bill has also been reviewed by the Cabinet Committee on Legislative Cases (CCLC) where some federal ministers objected to giving unchecked powers to the central bank, a cabinet member told The Express Tribune in April this year.
=======================


what this means is that govt will no longer be able to manipulate growth via note printing
and power cost via circular debt(i.e delay increasing tarrifs without subsidy in budget)

these things should be already be in princple approved but the govt is in tough place economically
These are the bitter pills which we need to swallow today for the security and prosperity of our posterity period
 
. . . . . .
Energy companies could monopolize and change government if this move is not watched correctly it is a very dangerous demand
The move has only one purpose
For govt not to get invovle in purchase and thus eliminate a space for circular debt to begin with

Companies cant do anything NEPRA is regulatory authority it can fine charge or cancel liscense of any company who violate set rules including rules related to forming cartel and anticompetitions
What implications these might be?
Cost..

Now govt steps in ...freezes the cost ...and money goes into circular deficit..afterwards ..this wont happen

A black hole of money..
 
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Cost..

Now govt steps in ...freezes the cost ...and money goes into circular deficit..afterwards ..this wont happen

A black hole of money..

So basically cost to end consumers will go up? My understanding is that bill paying customers are currently not only paying for their own consumption but also for those stealing electricity, system inefficiencies, loopholes like capacity charges as well as general corruption all around. I am guessing these issues aren't going away anytime soon so middle class will have to take up the additional burden of circular debt blackhole as well directly.
 
. .
So the people of Pakistan WOULD LOOSE CONTROL over their own Central Bank. Absolutely pathetic how Foreign Powers want to take control over Pakistan's money, and how this government would allow this to happen. I always had doubts over IK. If he decides to do this, then he is no different to Nawaz, Zardari and others.
 
.
So basically cost to end consumers will go up? My understanding is that bill paying customers are currently not only paying for their own consumption but also for those stealing electricity, system inefficiencies, loopholes like capacity charges as well as general corruption all around. I am guessing these issues aren't going away anytime soon so middle class will have to take up the additional burden of circular debt blackhole as well directly.
yes they are...
so govt will have to come in fix the system or fail politically..
previously the govt will send the issue to the black hole a.k.a circular debt

my advise govt should hand over it to either private sector or the provincial govt as, federal govt doesn't hold hand on police
So the people of Pakistan WOULD LOOSE CONTROL over their own Central Bank. Absolutely pathetic how Foreign Powers want to take control over Pakistan's money, and how this government would allow this to happen. I always had doubts over IK. If he decides to do this, then he is no different to Nawaz, Zardari and others.
yes, the same way USA and Britain don't control their central bank directly
if you dont do that people like zardari, nawaz sharif will simply print note with the blessing of educated people
do we need to continue with the imf deal as of now ?
technically no..but practically yes..an abrupt end will seriously hamper our funding efforts from other mulit donors institutions ..why???

because it will signal that we are about to go to our past behavior i.e note printing(either to stimulate growth or/ to plug hole the huge fiscal deficit) which will inevitably cause a collapse as it has in last 30 years 4 times under PMLN and 3 times under PPPP
===
it takes decade to built confidence...
and days to destroy it..

we have destroyed confidence through decades of fake note printing..


the world doesn't has confidence in us that we will not go back to heroine drug abuse(state bank lending a.k.a fake note printing)

your main opposition leader just said that she would do it the other day on bbc i.e subsidize rupee back to 99

and it is a popular decision. People will not vote for her..she will win, do it and then leave after 5 years. Someone esle will come again and clean the mess..and the cycle will continue
 
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