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Asessment of Lal Masjid operation by Pakistani think tank BRASSTACKS

Mujahid

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The author Zaid Hamid (Founding Consultant of BRASSTACKS) was asked certain questions about the whole affair by a journalist and here we would like to give a brief and quick review of some of them which help us to see the whole perspective. The interview was given immediately after the operation was completed and the casualty figure was being hotly debated as even now.

* In the aftermath of the Lal Masjid operation by the army, in retrospect how do you view the whole episode? What repercussions will it have in the long term?

This group is a renegade militant group called Takfiri who are quick to declare war on Muslims if they disagree with them. They are ideologically anarchists and outcastes even in other Jihadi groups. Did you not notice that none of the mainstream Jihadi groups like Lashkar Taiba, Hizbul Mujahideen and alikes did not support them and even their own board of seminaries had excommunicated them? Such groups are rare but are often created due to fanatic cleric looking for self glorification. All mainstream religious and jihadi groups have distanced themselves from these idiots, hence the reaction is not that violent as one would expect. The subtle difference between them and others is critical to understand. The reaction would come on government’s hiding the casualty figures when missing person list would sharply increase. The only militant groups openly supporting them are already declared terrorist groups like SSP and TNSM.


* Do you really believe there was a failure on the part of intelligence agencies and that they did not foresee the militant power?

100%. This was not a drama or fake scenario created by the security agencies as many are suggesting. This is a massive security failure and extremely embarrassing indeed. Some heads
should roll on this.


* Do we know the number of people killed, how many women?

I feel about 200 to 250 would be the total casualty figure. With 75 militants’ acknowledged by the government, rest will have to be accounted for it seems. We will know when missing persons list will increase. The Mullahs are increasing pressure that there were 1000 people inside. That is crap and non-sense as their dead leader was saying that 1800 are inside. This is bluff and the government played into it as it had no way of confirming it. Again, poorest intel.


Weapons and Militants:

Yes the weapons shown to the media do belong to the militants and there was a huge stock pile in the complex consisting of machine guns, rocket launchers, land mines, grenades, gas masks, Molotov cocktails and suicide vests. Since this equipment has also been captured on live footage and photographs on July 3rd, even before the military operation began, we have no doubt that government version is ok here. The dead cleric had himself claimed having stockpile of weapons for a month. These militants offered most fierce resistance to Special Forces for 30 hours in the Masjid complex killing 10 and wounding about 45 of top most elite commandoes. The Masjid was a weapons dump no doubt prepared for a long war and an armed rebellion. The accidental clash with the security forces and their over confidence in under estimating the General scuttled their long term game plan. The government has been open from the beginning about the number of militants killed as hiding their figure served no purpose. About 50-60 militants have been reported killed and about 150 have been captured alive. So far there is no confirmation of any foreign militants but indeed these men were all battle hardened ruthless die hard types. If the government can prove foreign militants or any previously wanted criminal in their ranks, it will strengthen its case.

be7d316133b0ad925d9b4f5173996a90.jpg

This picture was taken on July 13th when first Ranger was killed along with 19 others and Ministry of environment was set on fire by these men using Molotov cocktails. He seems to be holding an American weapon similar to M-14. Does that suggest anything??


The number of Casualties of women, Children and hostages:

Though the clerics are kicking dust that 1000 casualties have taken place within students of the seminary, there are reasons for us to believe that this is mass level disinformation. For one, no
one has yet come forward with any proof, list, names, addresses or the roll register of the seminary to prove that what the actual number of students in the seminary was. No one knows that yet! Almost everyone is giving this figure without any proof at all!! This is ridiculously fantastic. With almost 3000 already walked out before the operations, the number of remaining students remains a guess only but would surely be in few hundreds only maximum. Even that is on the higher side.

But there are circumstantial evidence as well as based on our own sources which suggests that there are very few civilian (women and children) casualties, may be in dozens only which the government is also acknowledging now but tried to hide earlier.

Why we say that is due to the fact that if there were 1000 missing students, we should also be having 1000 families or parents searching for their children!! But in Islamabad today, since the last 10 days, the number of parents searching for their children is reducing by the day and today we only find 60 or so families still searching for their children. Where are the 950 parents whose children are supposed to be missing as claimed by the clerics???? We find it extremely difficult to believe that those parents have still refused to come and search for their kids. The
only thing which we believe now is that there we no hostages in reality but only about 50 to 60 women and children belonging to the group itself when the operation started.

Pakistan Think Tank
 
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gr8 thnktank i wpuld like to talk to these people myself !!!

its been great to know these people exist in here
 
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Hi,

I am a Musharraf supporter, but I will tell you, when you get politicians involved in a millitary operation, it is a recipe for disaster. The biggest culprit was Ch Shujaat Hussain. This guy has no concept of strategy, gamesmanship, using the adversaries show of arms and strength to your advantage and getting involved in the last minute peace dialogue---where failure of negotiations was imminent, which put the govt in a very weak position. Just because you head the Muslim league Q, does not mean that you have automatically become a hostage or siege crisis negotiator.

The failure:----

1. The govt failed to control the situation right from day one by stating that these were girls and boys who were just creating agitation. No, these were not girls and boys, but rather brainwashed foot soldiers---the men and women of Lal Masjid who had taken the vow to fight til death. The govt should have treated them as such from day one-----if you listened to Ch Shujaat and Tariq Aziz on tv interviews---they were portraying them like lost lambs in the forest.

Tariq Aziz and Ch Shujaat-----guys---these people were not " hamarey bacchay " but rather they were enemy combatants, who right to the end vehemently defended their stand and stated that they would rather destroy the house that they live in----but won't accept anything different----and threw the egg on your faces.

2. The government let them use the cellular phone to talk to anyone and everyone at their discretion. The mullah was on the phone with all the tv stations----and the govt let them get away with that----showed that the govt was ill-prepared to take a manly stand against the issue---atypical Ch Shujaat / Tariq Aziz recipe for disaster.

3. The cellular phone recording that Tariq Aziz came up with about the discontinued conversation with the mullah---I believe was a fake. Why-------it took too long for the govt to come up with the recording---I am led to believe that there was no recording of the conversation.

4. The mullah was talking on the cell phone to the tv personal right till the end when he met his demise. That was a total failure on part of the govt for not rcognizing the power of the air-waves and free media. Even when they right, the govt was made to look like fool.

5. The half hearted assault---just to save lives of murderous brainwashed fanatics, the govt again showed its failure to overcome major crisis right in the middle of the capitol city.

They should have looked at what the saudi govt did in the siege of Khana-a Kaaba. They had a presedent under similiar circumstances, and they also knew what happened to those who took over the siege.

Secondly, they knew about what happened to fanatics in Texas, where one Mr Koresh got wholed up in a prayer house with his believers---they had weapons---shot at fbi agents---killed one---got stormed and none came out alive.

A job left incomplete and not done wholeheartedly leaves severe consequences about the planning capacity of the govt and its associated branches.

6. The last---the worst---and not the least----A Lt Colonel dies of an enemy sniper's bullet----the Lt col is supposedly doing what a no-com in the american or british millitary does. Where is tragedy going to end.

Final word----the mullahs should never have ben allowed to carry this issue so far.

Result---

Pakistani millitary---pakistani govt---pakistani president Ch Shujaat etc----need a better marketing strategy, need a better sales pitch----need a better and aggressive approach towards any nincompoop who wants to stand up against the willof the govt. Pakistan zindabad.
wrtten by MASTANKAN:08/28/07
 
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We must not forget the role of Ijazul Haq. IMO he is main culprit. I heard on the Capital talk that he went to negotiate with Maulvi Abdul Aziz along with Hamid Mir and he touched Abdul Aziz'z feet !! One negotiates as an equal, as a subservient, one can only request. No wonder the negotiations failed.

I also find it very hard to believe that all these weapons could have been brought into Islamabad without any covert support from die hard Islamists inside the police and ISI. ISI HQ is not far and am certain that bigot Hamid Gul has some followers still among the ISI who are symathizers of the Islamic extremist groups.
 
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Ejaz ul Haq is not a culprit !!!!

What do you mean by touching the feet ???
 
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Ejaz ul Haq is not a culprit !!!!

What do you mean by touching the feet ???

Obviously you have not followed the various events. Ejazul Haq was on Geo TV Capital Talk. Where Hamid Mir asked him why he touched the feet of Abdul Aziz as if in submission. Ijazul haq told that Adbul Aziz's father was a friend of Zia ul Haq ( it was Zia who alloted the land for Lal Masjid) and that he ( Ijaz) respected Abdul aziz immensely.

Ijaz ul Haq is the key culprit. He got FIR against Abdul Aziz squashed when weapons were found in his car. When the two brothers grabbed plots meant for Auditorium and Book Foundation, Ijaz ul Haq stopped the action by CDA against the construction of Jamia Hafsa.

Original allocation was only kanal and half for the mosque. The complex now covers 17 kanals of land; all illegally occupied and despite court ruling by CDA, no action taken. Thanks to Ijazul Haq. Bigot son of a bigot father.
 
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if its true !! Molana Abdul Aziz would have definetely got happy when Ejaz ul Haq touched his feet.

This is what mullah wants from us...make us keep sitting in his gathering and keep listening to any thing he says !!!
 
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ISI HQ is not far and am certain that bigot Hamid Gul has some followers still among the ISI who are symathizers of the Islamic extremist groups.

Niaz sahib,

I think you are stretching things a bit too far. ISI does not have to provide arms to folks against whom the Army or the paramilitaries have to move. There was ample time and opportunity available to the folks at LM to gather weapons as Police and Rangers did not start checking ingress into the mosque up until a month before the operation. Things were being brought in and on top of that, weapons were captured from police (AK-47s for which ample 7.62mm ammo is available in Pakistan).

Also Hamid Gul can be a sympathizer for Taliban etc., but he is no bigot! When Hamid Gul talks about the issues that he has, he does make sense. My father had known Hamid Gul in the Army days (well before his ISI days) and Hamid Gul was/is as much a patriot of Pakistan as anyone else. Due to the Afghan Jihad and his role in running part of that campaign, he has developed an affinity for the Mujahideen but he does not condone or support the extremists/terrorists...his only point is that the GoP should talk to these folks instead of confronting them militarily.

On MastanKhan's post
6. The last---the worst---and not the least----A Lt Colonel dies of an enemy sniper's bullet----the Lt col is supposedly doing what a no-com in the american or british millitary does. Where is tragedy going to end.

While its unfortunate that such an experienced officer of the Army died, however its not too hard to understand the circumstances of the situation. The mission tasked to the CT unit of the SSG was to extricate as many people as possible without harm, there was a lot of scrutiny at the very highest level (the operation was run out of the office of Commander X Corps) with even Musharraf being provided up to date status. In such circumstances, the commander of the CT unit is bound to get around and look at the siting and planting of explosives and even carry out recce (this is a very common thing in the SSG and officers at all levels are involved in it). The other factor contributing to the loss of the officer was that the Lt Col had been conducting recce in the masjid in the past months in order to make sure that should a need arise for an operation, the SSG would be ready. This probably meant that he needed to be up in the front to show his troops where and how to breach the compound an where to place snipers and MoE teams etc.

It indeed is unfortunate that we lost a very good officer, however looking at the complexity of the problem, it does not surprise me that an officer at the level of Lt Col was running around siting and doing recce.

Here is a snippet from Ikram Sehgel:

A chance encounter with those who actually took part in the final assault on the militants in Jamia Hafsa was fascinating, and frustrating. Words cannot describe the selfless bravery of the troopers of Zarrar Battalion in "close quarter battle" (CQB), fully one-third of the attacking force of 164 becoming casualties in the face of horrific fire from rooms made into well-sited and inter-connected bunkers. One incident stands out, Captain Salman Butt and two troopers obtaining shahadat (with five others injured) in one room while evacuating the women and children by shielding them with their bodies. Every woman and child was got out safely. Mixed with the pride of having done their duty, there is consternation at not being recognised by the masses for their outstanding bravery, their absolute commitment at the price of their lives. Such men seldom need any eulogies, their raw courage stands out as eloquent witness of the sacrifice they gave (and are ready to give) for their nation. Those of us who have grown old without carrying the scars of battle owe a debt of gratitude to those who do. One may well ask, where have all the flowers gone?


lastly, compared to any other unit of the Pakistan Army, the SSG has the highest ratio of officers:men lost in combat.
 
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Assalamu Alaykum,

blain2,

Can you give me the complete article of Ikram Sehgel which you have posted ??
 
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WA,

Here it is (its not specifically about LM, just a whole bunch of things that he has commented about):

Preventing anarchy

By Ikram Sehgal

A tragic incident highlights a major public concern in Pakistan, that of personal insecurity. On Saturday 20 July, a friend and a colleague, Major (Retd) Saeed went for an after dinner walk. Less than 100 metres from his residence in Defence Officers Housing Colony in Mardan, he was accosted, ostensibly by a robber (or robbers) who tried to snatch at gunpoint the mobile he was using. Or were they trying to kidnap him, that being the lucrative business of the day in Sarhad Province? A courageous man having considerable pride, Saeed did the wrong thing, he resisted and was shot and killed, four bullets pumped into him, at least two in the head. The number of bullets fired and the precision thereof would give credence to a hit by a hired assassin.

In Mardan for the funeral next day, one could feel the palpable fear and insecurity prevailing in the entire area, eloquently expressed by a number of mourners who gently mobbed me. My wonderful course-mate (34th PMA Long Course), someone who it is a privilege and honour to call a close friend, Colonel (Retd) Iftikhar, runs both a private school and college in Mardan, giving also free education to many destitutes, accomplishing in his small way what many madressahs are doing. 34th PMA should be proud of Iftikhar! Poverty and unemployment being major reasons for crime in the area, the misuse of religion for political purposes is becoming a major force-multiplier for a rapid descent into anarchy. Providing education for the under-privileged is vital to getting out of this misery and crime cycle.

Pakistan has a major law and order problem; it is no comfort that it could have been worse. Professional criminals are taking advantage of the situation. Kidnappings are rampant in Mardan as is the occasional murder, hitmen not being hard to find. Operating from Takht Bai 10-12 kilometres away, criminal groups kidnap people for ransom and keep them 20-25 kilometres in Sakhakot, a safe haven for criminals and/or those escaping justice. Sakhakot boasts of one-stop roadside stalls, an "Arms Bazaar" having weapons on display ranging from AK-47s to anti-aircraft machine guns, as well as grenades, landmines, explosives of all kind, etc, and at very competitive prices. One can also place orders in this "Arms R Us", with fairly short delivery time, and at your doorstep anywhere in Pakistan. So much for law enforcement, primarily a subject of the provincial government! One can understand the frustration of the US at our ineptitude, or as they maintain, why are we choosing to be blind?

One should not expect the MMA Government to act. North of Mardan in the Swat Valley Maulana Fazlullah, a follower of Maulana Sufi Mohammad (founder of the Tehrik-e-Nifaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi, TNSM) and a son-in-law of late Rasheed Ghazi, holds sway with his so-called "horse-army" comprising several hundred (even if one is sceptical about his claim of thousands) of followers. They do not hide their affiliation to Al Qaeda. The challenge to the writ of the state is from an unholy alliance between politico-religious elements and outright criminals, the former into it for power and money, and the latter as behoves all criminals, for money and money alone.

Given the Fazlullah connection, the weapons found in Jamia Hafsa could have come from Sakhakot, a strong Al Qaeda connection. That explains not only the presence of hardened fighters but also the tactics used. Unless this logistics chain emanating from Sakhakot is eliminated and/or disrupted, we can expect many more explosions and suicide bombers. If any government surrenders its writ to vacillation, the lawlessness will lead to utter anarchy. How long before this expertise becomes urban home grown with mayhem similar to cities of Iraq, especially in Baghdad? Bannu was attacked on Tuesday by rockets, 15 were killed, many more were seriously injured. One success for the security forces, a major Taliban commander, Abdullah Mahsud, blew himself up in Zhob. What was he doing in Zhob in the residence of a JUI (F) leader, Ayub Mandokhel?

The administration's media team has been ham-handed, and that is being charitable. The extent of damage can only be understood when even sane and mature people who should know better question even facts, where is the credibility of the government? A chance encounter with those who actually took part in the final assault on the militants in Jamia Hafsa was fascinating, and frustrating. Words cannot describe the selfless bravery of the troopers of Zarrar Battalion in "close quarter battle" (CQB), fully one-third of the attacking force of 164 becoming casualties in the face of horrific fire from rooms made into well-sited and inter-connected bunkers. One incident stands out, Captain Salman Butt and two troopers obtaining shahadat (with five others injured) in one room while evacuating the women and children by shielding them with their bodies. Every woman and child was got out safely. Mixed with the pride of having done their duty, there is consternation at not being recognised by the masses for their outstanding bravery, their absolute commitment at the price of their lives. Such men seldom need any eulogies, their raw courage stands out as eloquent witness of the sacrifice they gave (and are ready to give) for their nation. Those of us who have grown old without carrying the scars of battle owe a debt of gratitude to those who do. One may well ask, where have all the flowers gone?

For once there was good news for everyone, including the president, the restoration of the Chief Justice of Pakistan (CJP) to his seat. The question was not whether the Reference was right or wrong but whether the CJP (or anyone in the judiciary) could be treated in this atrocious manner, and the supremacy of judiciary thereof. While the lawyers and political activists can certainly celebrate, the president should be ecstatic he thankfully lost this battle. This was the only way to get the CJP off the streets, the Reference succeeding would have invited mass reaction in the streets. Any good commander fights for time when he is under pressure, the legal fraternity may dish out all the sweets they want, Pervez Musharraf has got the respite he badly needed. One hopes he will use this breather wisely, taking the initiative on a broad front in acting upon the mood of the people rather than abdicate that to the Supreme Court. Make no mistake, the CJP will come after him, tigers become man-eaters on tasting human blood!

This country has all the portents of sliding into anarchy, this slide can only be stopped by ensuring the rule of law and eliminating aberrations like Sakhakot. The lawyers' celebrations were mostly joined by the intelligentsia (and the media), the silence in the streets was deafening, the primary concern of citizens centring on preventing explosions of the wrong kind. While dealing with the growing militancy, Pervez Musharraf must restore unfettered democracy, starting by his doffing the uniform and holding free and fair elections. Having "lost" this tactical battle, Pervez Musharraf (and the nation) could well come out better in the strategic sense by negotiating a genuine power-sharing arrangement.

As for Saeed, friend and colleague, rest in peace, soldier brave!



The writer is a defence and political analyst.
 
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Blain,

I appreciate your comments about the Lt Col. Here is how I look at it---the country has spent millions of ruppees / dollars to make an ssg Lt Col. A leader--a man amongst men. One of his primary jobs is to train and develop 20 individuals per say to do the job of 20 individuals. A non commisioned officer of pakistani ssg should have had the ability, technique and training to accomplish that job. If a non comm could not do that job, then the ssg is hyped about its abilities and capabilities.

A col level person is not supposed to do the recce. A command and control level of person has a lost of information in his head. For that reason, they are not sent into a vulnerable position. The place to plan and send the troops and place the snipers is the command and control center.

Guess what---the enemy sniper had a better vantage point, which the colonel missed in his assessment.

If I have my Lt Col killed right at the begining of the skirmish, because he wants to take a peek to be sure what the non comm is saying and not trusting that man's judgement, then what am I going to be left with to fight the rest of the war.



Hameed Gul-----some people are great assets during a certain time----like the russian afghan war and after the war is over, they have a very difficult time adjusting their priorities. They are unable to come out of the past, for that reason, they are unable to find a place for themselves in the present. These talibans and al-qaeda were Hameed Gul's babies---they were a part of his creation. He nurtured the afghan Mujahideen and made them into a cohesive fighting force---any pain afflicted to them is an injury to Hameed Gul.

Niaz, you are right. I missed out Ijaz ul Haque.

Pakistan and pakistanis were so fortunate that the session judge came out and made the announcement over the loud speaker that the mullah would be arrested---this happened when the phone meetings was at its conclusion between the Mullah and CH Shujaat trio. The mullah stopped the phone conversation. The trio went to the president house----talked to the legal---and found out that any agreement with the mullah for a safe passage for all, would be like making agreements with the terrorists----the wrath of the UN resolution was about to fall on pakistan. We just dodged the bullet by a whisker.

I keep saying that pakistan needs a american style corporate culture for its elective members----even if the politicians are not that knowledgeable, they must have world class attorneys to help them in their moment of need.
 
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If I have my Lt Col killed right at the begining of the skirmish, because he wants to take a peek to be sure what the non comm is saying and not trusting that man's judgement, then what am I going to be left with to fight the rest of the war.

Mastan Khan,

Sometimes, Commanding Officers have to see things for themselves before they order others to act, especially when the issue is sensitive, be it political or military.

To take action against own citizens is not an easy affair and that too when there is a large number who support the Mullahs and can get agitated enough to make things difficult for the govt.

I don't think it was an incorrect action on the part of the Lt Col to check out the facts on ground.

Maybe I would have done it too, if I were in his place.

Political sensitivity, unfortunately, has become a part of even normal Internal Security activities under the international and human rights glare!

Be more kind to the poor men in uniform who do a difficult task!

Try to see from their point of view too. They have a very difficult task to perform when tasked for Internal Security!
 
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If I have my Lt Col killed right at the begining of the skirmish, because he wants to take a peek to be sure what the non comm is saying and not trusting that man's judgement, then what am I going to be left with to fight the rest of the war.
I echo what the Brigadier has stated. There are situations where you do not have time to wait for the intel to pass up the CoC. This rescue was one of them. The situation was too fluid and I, too, would be within shooting distance simply because if I waited 5 minutes for the intel to get to me, children might have died.

It's one thing to prepare the proper fire support to rain steel down on an enemy bunker. It's quite another to see when it's safe to get the children out of harm's way or when you need to get into between the children and the bullets.
 
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Blain,

I appreciate your comments about the Lt Col. Here is how I look at it---the country has spent millions of ruppees / dollars to make an ssg Lt Col. A leader--a man amongst men. One of his primary jobs is to train and develop 20 individuals per say to do the job of 20 individuals. A non commisioned officer of pakistani ssg should have had the ability, technique and training to accomplish that job. If a non comm could not do that job, then the ssg is hyped about its abilities and capabilities.

A col level person is not supposed to do the recce. A command and control level of person has a lost of information in his head. For that reason, they are not sent into a vulnerable position. The place to plan and send the troops and place the snipers is the command and control center.

Guess what---the enemy sniper had a better vantage point, which the colonel missed in his assessment.

If I have my Lt Col killed right at the begining of the skirmish, because he wants to take a peek to be sure what the non comm is saying and not trusting that man's judgement, then what am I going to be left with to fight the rest of the war.

You are def. entitled to your opinion. Given the complexity and sensitivity of the operation, I would not be surprised if the commander SSG (Maj Gen) was also involved. Lt Col is a minor thing in such types of operations. There have been other cases where SSG has lost senior officers and in some cases I would say it was carelessness, however in this case it was sheer bad luck or a game of "Qadr".

Any which way you look at it, if the Zarrar AT outfit had been commanded by someone else from the SSG, they too would have been right at the front.


Hameed Gul-----some people are great assets during a certain time----like the russian afghan war and after the war is over, they have a very difficult time adjusting their priorities. They are unable to come out of the past, for that reason, they are unable to find a place for themselves in the present. These talibans and al-qaeda were Hameed Gul's babies---they were a part of his creation. He nurtured the afghan Mujahideen and made them into a cohesive fighting force---any pain afflicted to them is an injury to Hameed Gul.

I think there is considerable misinformation in your above statement. Taliban and AQ have NOTHING to do with Hamid Gul. The part of nurturing Afghan "Muj" was done by Gen Akhter Abdul Rehman. Hamid Gul simply donned on the mantle after Gen Akhter was posted out of ISI. The ISI had already built up its network.

Now coming to the part of Taliban, Hamid Gul had been booted by the time this militia came into existance. The formation of Taliban was done under the patronage of Benazir Bhutto who had directed her Interior Minister Lt Gen Naseeruallh Babar to ensure that Pakistani interests in Afghanistan were safeguarded. The ISI chief at that time was Lt Gen Shamsur Rehman Kallue (a BB appointee pulled out of retirement).

For the Taliban, the only thing you can pin on Hameed Gul is that he is a pathan just like the Taliban :lol: nothing else!!! The stories you read in the press are motivated BS pulled out of people's behind.

Also please lets not get carried away by attributing this Al-Qaeda thing to ANY Pakistani officer. These guys were part of the internation brigade who made it to Afghanistan on the prodding of Saudis and many others. Pakistani ISI treated them no differently than any other Afghan outfits fighting the jihad against the Soviets. They were attached to various Afghan groups and tended to handle their own finances and supplies independent of the ISI. So I am almost offended by you suggesting that Pakistan had anything to do with the creation of AQ. :tsk: :tsk:
 
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