ASEAN should have four countries with over a trillion dollar GDP by 2030

[pr1v4t33r]

PWC also published interesting report "the long view" that predict how Global economic order change by 2050. What's interesting regarding ASEAN is, while Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, and Malasia jump the ladder quite successfully, Thailand fall quite miserably here. How's that possible? What's currently brewing in Thailand that would possibly holding back their economic advancement?

 

[Nike]

Actually sounds like a genius.

I have always said this, china's true successor in economic growth will be Vietnam.

There's a reason why most Chinese factories moving overseas find Vietnam the best.

The simple reason being it is like China. Skilled, literate, disciplined workforce. Desire to succeed. Etc.



You forget that the figures cited here are nominal.

These countries are already growing at 5-7%.

If you add inflation it already becomes double digit growth.

And the if currency inflates, then the growth may as well exceed far beyond just double digit.



10% in nominal terms.

They are already growing more than that.

Nominal includes inflation and currency appreciation

sounds your prediction will not come to fruitition in near terms, Vietnam had been named at such prediction since doi moi reform in early 90's but what? their yearly nominal growth never exceed 8 percent per year and since early 2010 through 2015 their nominal growth is only around 4 to 5 percents due to persistence miss managament in macro economic and beurocracy at central government level. Even lately Bangladesh with their faulty had more robust growth compared to Vietbegnam

 

[Viet]

sounds your prediction will not come to fruitition in near terms, Vietnam had been named at such prediction since doi moi reform in early 90's but what? their yearly nominal growth never exceed 8 percent per year and since early 2010 through 2015 their nominal growth is only around 4 to 5 percents due to persistence miss managament in macro economic and beurocracy at central government level. Even lately Bangladesh with their faulty had more robust growth compared to Vietbegnam

well congrats you are rich you don´t need foreign assistance. World Bank has given $1.8 billion in aid to Vietnam in this year for poverty reduction, while you receive how much? World Bank can give the money to Bangladesh instead.

 

[Mista]

Actually sounds like a genius.

I have always said this, China's true successor in economic growth will be Vietnam.

There's a reason why most Chinese factories moving overseas find Vietnam the best.

The simple reason being it is like China. Skilled, literate, disciplined workforce. Desire to succeed. Etc.



You forget that the figures cited here are nominal.

These countries are already growing at 5-7%.

If you add inflation it already becomes double digit growth.

And the if currency inflates, then the growth may as well exceed far beyond just double digit.



10% in nominal terms.

They are already growing more than that.

Nominal includes inflation and currency appreciation

Nope, I didn't forget that it's nominal figures we are talking about.

'These countries' conveniently excludes Malaysia and Thailand. Malaysia grew 4.2% and Thailand grew 2.5% last year.

Nominal GDP also includes currency depreciation against the USD, which is very common among developing countries. Asian currencies have been hit hard since the US raised the rates. You won't have currency appreciation against the USD consistently for 13 years.

PWC also published interesting report "the long view" that predict how Global economic order change by 2050. What's interesting regarding ASEAN is, while Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, and Malasia jump the ladder quite successfully, Thailand fall quite miserably here. How's that possible? What's currently brewing in Thailand that would possibly holding back their economic advancement?

Political instability.

And aging population. Despite being a developing country, Thailand only has a TFR of 1.5 according to the UN. That's comparable to Japan's TFR of 1.4.

 

[Nike]

well congrats you are rich you don´t need foreign assistance. World Bank has given $1.8 billion in aid to Vietnam in this year for poverty reduction, while you receive how much? World Bank can give the money to Bangladesh instead.

si what if Viet get aid or so, does it matter for me? nope. But what is the implication for Vietnamese, your long cherished HSR project will get more time until World Bank and ADB valued Vietnam more highly before they can disburse more loan to finance such ptoject in Vietnam.No one is willing to give loan or financing such projects in a poor country who received donation every year to financing their basic necessities

 

[AndrewJin]

No PPP pls.
Pls don't get such thread supapowarised

 

[Viet]

si what if Viet get aid or so, does it matter for me? nope. But what is the implication for Vietnamese, your long cherished HSR project will get more time until World Bank and ADB valued Vietnam more highly before they can disburse more loan to finance such ptoject in Vietnam.No one is willing to give loan or financing such projects in a poor country who received donation every year to financing their basic necessities

Why Vietnam HSR plan concerns you?

Indonesia furniture industry lost $300m in export sales last year because many foreign companies such as Maitland Smith relocates factory to Vietnam. you may stop to rant and begin to worry of indonesia losing competitiveness. so many people get fooled by GDP numbers that can be manipulated by a finger on keyboard. More reliable data are export/import figures, energy generation/consumption, forex, overseas investments, retail sales.

http://www.indonesia-investments.co...-pressure-companies-move-to-vietnam/item7654?

 

[pr1v4t33r]

Nope, I didn't forget that it's nominal figures we are talking about. 'These countries' conveniently excludes Malaysia and Thailand. Malaysia grew 4.2% and Thailand grew 2.5% last year. Nominal GDP also includes currency depreciation against the USD, which is very common among developing countries. Asian currencies have been hit hard since the US raised the rates. You won't have currency appreciation against the USD consistently for 13 years.

Would be interesting if someone could lend a hand to compile a list of ASEAN' countries GDP nominal growth here, at least for the last year..

Political instability. And aging population. Despite being a developing country, Thailand only has a TFR of 1.5 according to the UN. That's comparable to Japan's TFR of 1.4.

Yeah, looks like it. The contraction on population growth and aging workforce would definitely take a big bite on Thailand' economic performance and growth.

 

[fadine]

Don't create conflict between Vietnam and Indonesia, please.