Asean GDP all set to surpass the UK this year after Brexit

[Bussard Ramjet]

China is still adding 2 trillion dollars every 3 years.
You have mixed growth with growth rate.
One country could grow at 6%, but still adding one third of 2 trillion dollars.
One country could grow at 10%, but the distance with the the country growing at 6% is getting bigger and bigger.

China, in 2016, didn't add anything to its GDP in dollar terms.

It's currency declined in 2016, by around 8%, wiping out the growth of the economy.

You have mixed growth with growth rate.
One country could grow at 6%, but still adding one third of 2 trillion dollars.
One country could grow at 10%, but the distance with the the country growing at 6% is getting bigger and bigger.

In 2000, China had a GDP of 1.2 trillion dollars, with a real 8.5% growth rate.
From this, in 2000, it added around 120 billion dollars to its economy.

In 2000, US had a GDP of 10.2 trillion dollars, with a real growth rate of 4%.
From this, in 2000, it added around 340 billion dollars to it's economy.

Does this then mean that US was growing faster and the gap increasing btw US and China in 2000?

Absolute gap is not the correct way to see trends. What is important is the ratio.

Obviously, a 10 times larger economy growing at even half the pace of an economy will add more absolute amount than the smaller economy. But this doesn't show the trend.

2016
India GDP 6.6%
China GDP 6.7%

These are IMF predictions.

World Bank predictions for India's economy are higher.

So are, RBI's predictions. You are just picking and choosing the data that you want to choose.

Then India is truly an exceptional case as no other fastest growing economies in history has ever had to deal with this issue before.

These are the proportion of people having access to sanitation, in the first column in 1990, and in the second column in 2015.

China in 1990 was growing at 10% and yet only 48% of its people had access to sanitation.

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.STA.ACSN

What is more worrying on part of India is that size of the GDP seems to be levelled at around 2 trillion USD.

How is that?
The apparent leveling off in the last 2-3 years is due to the decline of the value of ruppee. Earlier, one dollar was equal to 45 ruppee, now one dollar is equal to 68 ruppee.

In 2000, India's GDP was only 460 billion dollars.

 

[Lil Mathew]

China is still adding 2 trillion dollars every 3 years.
You have mixed growth with growth rate.
One country could grow at 6%, but still adding one third of 2 trillion dollars.
One country could grow at 10%, but the distance with the the country growing at 6% is getting bigger and bigger.

There is an another side of that..
1.In 2016 alone your banks lend a whopping $3 trillion credit to the market for achieving 6.7% growth..
2. China's debt to GDP ratio rose to 277pc at the end of 2016 from 254pc the previous year..
3.More than $700 billion outflown from your country..
4.Forex reserves plunged to $3 trillion..
5. Yuan devalued almost 7%..

 

[terranMarine]

1990 China's annual growth rate 10% ? Even when China's growth rate in 1990 was that low almost 50% of the population already had sanition. When double digit growth rate kicked in i don't have to tell you that China made fast improvement in that area. India now one of the fastest growing economy means the number of open defecation should be starting to decrease then. But ofcourse you don't believe there's a relation to that.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

View attachment 371008

1990 China's annual growth rate 10% ? Even when China's growth rate in 1990 was that low almost 50% of the population already had sanition. When double digit growth rate kicked in i don't have to tell you that China made fast improvement in that area. India now one of the fastest growing economy means the number of open defecation should be starting to decrease then. But ofcourse you don't believe there's a relation to that.

Growth doesn't create sudden change.

India from 1990-2015 grew at about 7-8% growth rate each year.
And from 17% in 1990, the access has grown to 40% in 2015.

In a decade, I can guarantee you that it will increase to about 60%.

 

[randomradio]

In a decade, I can guarantee you that it will increase to about 60%.

It could happen sooner, what with Modi promising housing for every Indian.

 

[AndrewJin]

There is an another side of that..
1.In 2016 alone your banks lend a whopping $3 trillion credit to the market for achieving 6.7% growth..
2. China's debt to GDP ratio rose to 277pc at the end of 2016 from 254pc the previous year..
3.More than $700 billion outflown from your country..
4.Forex reserves plunged to $3 trillion..
5. Yuan devalued almost 7%..

@Shotgunner51 You r absolutely right. This forum has very few people who can understand finance in the global picture.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

It could happen sooner, what with Modi promising housing for every Indian.

No, it won't.

Modi and the Indian Government in general have the habit of boasting and overstating.
Why?

Because it gets you votes.

You can see this through out times.

@Shotgunner51 You r absolutely right. This forum has very few people who can understand finance in the global picture.

How is that?

All facts stated by Lil Mathew are correct.

The IMF, World Bank, and even your own PBOC are warning about debt levels.

Your own president Xi Jinping stated that China will try to bring down leverage levels.

Why is it that you shut your mind, and refuse to see any evidence for anything that runs counter to your view?

 

[randomradio]

No, it won't.

Modi and the Indian Government in general have the habit of boasting and overstating.
Why?

Because it gets you votes.

You can see this through out times.

I know. But my point was if he's promising housing for all, then at least he may end up improving the sanitation conditions more than we expect.

Anyway, the current plan is to make India open defecation free by 2019. Even if half the goal is reached, it will surpass your figure of 60% in 10 years.

http://indianexpress.com/article/in...villages-become-open-defecation-free-4429817/

https://yourstory.com/2016/10/swacch-bharat-report/

 

[Lil Mathew]

@Shotgunner51 You r absolutely right. This forum has very few people who can understand finance in the global picture.

Actually you are failing to understand the global picture because of Internet censorship in China.. If you need to know the truth, I will post a number of articles about this from fobes,Bloomberg,The Economist,Barron's etc..by eminent economists..

 

[ahojunk]

Actually you are failing to understand the global picture because of Internet censorship in China.. If you need to know the truth, I will post a number of articles about this from fobes,Bloomberg,The Economist,Barron's etc..by eminent economists..

.
You have to try harder. Are you aware that you are quoting the "standard western media narratives", the so-called free press. Or could it be that you are brainwashed by them.
There is not much point showing you and countering the statistics as anyone can always use one part of statistics, distort them to argue their case.

We just need to look at the economic indicators.

https://defence.pk/threads/china-regains-first-place-in-imf’s-world-economic-growth-report.473463/#post-9124864

After looking at this post, tell me how is China doing.

 

[randomradio]

.
You have to try harder. There is not much point showing you the statistics as anyone can always use them to argue their case.

We just need to look at the indicators.

https://defence.pk/threads/china-regains-first-place-in-imf’s-world-economic-growth-report.473463/#post-9124864

After looking at this post, tell me how is China doing.

A lot of that was built on insane amounts of debt.

Imagine in your own life if you kept borrowing money, unlimited money. You can buy any kind of house you want, any kind of car etc. It's easy to build up an economy that way. But what will happen when the time comes to pay it back? Now the question is whether you can afford the debt you have taken.

Even the CCP has publicly talked about the mounting debt.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-warning-comes-via-communist-party-mouthpiece
Even China's Party Mouthpiece Is Warning About Debt

Your own leadership is saying there is a high risk of negative economic growth.

 

[ahojunk]

There are two types of debts. One debt is where you borrow to fund non revenue generating activities (such as buying a car, fighting wars, etc). The other one is to use the debt as an investment which will generate income. In the case of China, it is the latter case.

It seems that you are not aware that China (Japan, Germany and SK) are net creditor nations but US and most other countries are net debtor nations. India is in this list but you have a manageable debt, I hope.

As I have said, you can focus on one small section of the statistics and harp on it all day to argue your case but that still does not change the overall picture.

 

[Lil Mathew]

.
You have to try harder. Are you aware that you are quoting the "standard western media narratives", the so-called free press. Or could it be that you are brainwashed by them.
There is not much point showing you and countering the statistics as anyone can always use one part of statistics, distort them to argue their case.

We just need to look at the economic indicators.

https://defence.pk/threads/china-regains-first-place-in-imf’s-world-economic-growth-report.473463/#post-9124864

After looking at this post, tell me how is China doing.

You are right.. China is doing good in each and every above fields.. But that was not the core problem.. I will take one of that point and explain..
China is largest producer of cement (or steel).. But China produces much excess than current demand.. So you need to create demand.. Excessive lending will create demand.. For example real estate bubble in China.. Last year alone value surged almost 40%... In China, real estate is responsible for 15% of GDP, 15% of fixed asset investment, 15% of urban employment, and 20% of all bank loans, according to the IMF..
But the problem is this type of growth is not stable.. At one point you will be forced to cut production..

 

[Shotgunner51]

1.In 2016 alone your banks lend a whopping $3 trillion credit to the market for achieving 6.7% growth..

2. China's debt to GDP ratio rose to 277pc at the end of 2016 from 254pc the previous year..

What "debts"?

First and most important of all, externally, China owes debts to whom? Aliens? Cos on this planet, China is a creditor nation, owning net external assets, not net liabilities like US or PIIGS. China is even THE largest creditor in the world, so anyone from debtor nations wanna lecture China?

https://defence.pk/threads/whos-worlds-4th-largest-creditor-nation.455610/​

On domestic market, check "Domestic Credit Provided by Financial Sector", by 2015 as percentage of GDP, Japan 376.7%, US 236.5%, Netherlands 219.5%, Hong Kong 212%, China 194.4%, obsessed with China? By the way Lesotho 2.6%, Afghanistan 0.3%, what does that tell you, these are paradise? By end 2016, bank deposits balance at ¥150.59 trillion (YOY increase ¥14.88 trillion, yeah that's massive), credits balance at ¥106.6 trillion (YOY increase ¥12.65 trillion, why you lied $3 trillion?). China has world's highest savings rate, credit-deposit ratio (loan-to-deposit ratio, LTD) is only 70.1%, all banks do do business on LTD ratio, which commercial bank on planet earth looks at garbage GDP data when assessing loans? Deposits will rise, our banks have room to grow credits even further, not less.

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FS.AST.DOMS.GD.ZS?view=map&year_high_desc=true
http://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2017-01-20/doc-ifxzunxf1558065.shtml​

3.More than $700 billion outflown from your country..
4. Forex reserves plunged to $3 trillion..
5. Yuan devalued almost 7%..

Of course capital flow outward when China massively increase outbound FDI and outbound loan, isn't that even common sense? When others do the same it's called "outbound investment", when Chines does it the term suddenly becomes "outflow"? MSM taught you finance?

Are you illiterate not knowing Forex reserves is just one of many items in overall assets, one item in overall balance sheet (IIP statement), why not show a full picture that includes other items? Or are you just trolling? Cut the MSM crap and go straight to IIP statement:

• Overall IIP aka net assets increased by $101.7 billion to reach $1.7471 trillion by 2016Q3 as compared to Q2, overtaking Germany (Euro 1.5865 trillion or $1.6658 trillion, 2016Q3) as world's second largest creditor nation (Mainland only), trailing only behind Japan.
• Reserve assets reduced to 50.28% of total assets (peak time was 60%+), still a long way to trim down, citing Japan is 14%. Taking into account of trade surplus (or current account surplus), my own estimation is that it will take another 5~7 years to trim down to Japan's level.
  
• Outbound FDI stock increase to $1.3101 trillion or 20.18% of total assets, again long way to go citing inbound FDI stock is as heavy as 62.4% of total liabilities. Among all assets, outbound FDI is the most urgent item to increase, like mentioned above, considering values are in $ trillions, it takes at least another 5~7 years to rebalance.
  
• Other investments (loans, trade credits to other nations, etc) increase to $1.5722 trillion or 24.22% of total assets, still room to increase. For many cash-strapped nations, China is increasing become an alternative source to IMF, see https://defence.pk/threads/cash-strapped-call-imf-or-china.472694/
  
• Portfolio investments, financial derivatives, these only carry small weights and I don't see any urgency to increase given RMB is not freely convertible under capital account. As Hong Kong-Shanghai Stock Connect progress these investments may expand.
  
• Inbound FDI stock increase to $2.961 trillion (70%+ came from Hong Kong), as mentioned above it's 62.4% of total liabilities, China must match this weight level in outbound FDI.
  
• Excellent progress in trimming other liabilities (mostly external loans), reduced by a staggering $107.0 billion vs last quarter.

http://www.safe.gov.cn/wps/portal/sy/tjsj_tzctb

​

If you need to know the truth, I will post a number of articles about this from fobes,Bloomberg,The Economist,Barron's etc..by eminent economists..

You mean MSM? They might be your holy textbook but we see them as plain garbage, instead of worrying for their own explosive federal debt, unfunded liabilities, or sinking external IIP position, they are all on steroid about China domestic credit market when loan-to-deposit ratio here is only 70%. Get a life, or is it diversion tactic to keep illiterate public from looking at US debts? Even more hilarious when China is just reshuffling external portfolio, aka dumping low-yield T-bills and go for hi-yield FDI, give massive loans to new markets in OBOR instead funding US debts, why the panic? On one hand they claim China is defending exchange rate on the other they say China manipulates currency, perhaps they suffer dissociate disorder?

https://defence.pk/threads/us-singl...s-for-special-monitoring.457610/#post-8843860

 

[Place Of Space]

how come the self declared fastest growing country happens to lack basic human necessities e.g. toilets all over the place?

The supapowa spend all its money buying arms to race with China.