ASEAN 2025 Projected GDP - Southeast Asia's Biggest Economy in 2025

[Song Hong]

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

10 years ago， the GDP of ASEAN was only the same of south Korea and only half of India, but now, bigger than India

South Korea GDP is already more than half of India.

 

[Indos]

10 years ago， the GDP of ASEAN was only the same of south Korea and only half of India, but now, bigger than India

Yup we are slightly bigger than India nominal GDP. Last year we still manage to reach 3.08 trillion USD despite pandemic. This year whole ASEAN countries are posting positive economic growth (except maybe Myanmar). While latest projection from IMF (November) shows India hasnt been able yet to reach 3 trillion USD this year (2021).

ASEAN countries GDP 2029 | Statista

In 2022, the estimated total GDP of all ASEAN states amounted to approximately 3.67 trillion U.S.

www.statista.com

Hi. This is the GDP(Nominal) ranking in 2021 for East Asian, Southeast Asian and South Asian countries. 동아시아, 동남아시아, 남부아시아 국가들의 2021년 명목 GDP 순위를 알려드립니다. Data Source : IMF(2021) https://www.imf.org/en/Home

 

[Song Hong]

Yup we are sligly bigger than India nominal GDP. Last year we still manage to reach 3.08 trllion USD despite pandemic. This year whole ASEAN countries are posting positive economic growth. While latest projection from IMF shows India hasnt been able yet to reach 3 trillion USD this year (2021).

I have more hope for Indonesia than India. Indonesian on the whole is honest and moral. Indians is a culture of very low social trust.

 

[Indos]

2021 FDI data

Trends in selected economies
FDI in the United States – the largest host economy – increased by 114% to $323 billion, while cross-border M&As almost tripled in value to $285 billion.

FDI in the European Union was up 8% but flows in the largest economies remained well below pre-pandemic levels.

China saw a record $179 billion of inflows – a 20% increase – driven by strong services FDI, while Brazil saw FDI double to $58 billion from a low level in 2020, but inflows remained just below pre-pandemic levels.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) resumed its role as an engine of growth for FDI in Asia and globally, with inflows up 35% and increases across most members.

FDI flows to India were 26% lower, mainly because large M&A deals recorded in 2020 were not repeated, while inflows to Saudi Arabia quadrupled to $23 billion, in part due to an increase in cross-border M&As.

Flows to South Africa jumped to $41 billion (from $3 billion in 2020) due to the $46 billion share swap between the South African multinational Naspers and its Dutch-listed investment unit Prosus.

Global foreign direct investment rebounded strongly in 2021, but the recovery is highly uneven

Global foreign direct investment (FDI) flows showed a strong rebound in 2021, up 77% to an estimated $1.65 trillion, from $929 billion in 2020, surpassing their pre-COVID-19 level, according to UNCTAD’s Investment Trends Monitor published on 19 January.

unctad.org

 

[beijingwalker]

10 years ago， the GDP of ASEAN was only the same of south Korea and only half of India, but now, bigger than India

Another life example that bragging and dreaming won't get you anywhere on the ground.

 

[Indos]

January 31, 2022​

​

ASEAN sales begin recovery in Q4​

ASEAN regional sales rebounded in Q4; Indonesia was region's best performing vehicle market in 2021.

Sales of new vehicles in southeast Asia’s six largest markets rebounded by almost 13% to 907,095 units in the fourth quarter of 2021 from 805,184 units in the same period of last year, according to data compiled exclusively for Just Auto.

The gain follows a 9% year-on-year decline in the third quarter after most countries in the region introduced new social and business restrictions to slow the fast-spreading covid Delta variant. Lockdown measures were mostly eased in September, resulting in a rebound in economic activity and a recovery in vehicle sales in the fourth quarter.

Over the full-year, regional sales increased by 15% to 2.86 million units from 2.49 million units in 2020, driven mainly by a sharp rebound in sales in Indonesia from very depressed year-earlier levels. Indonesia was the best performing market in 2021, with sales surging by 67% to 887,202 units – helped to record-low interest rates, tax cuts and a significant number of important new model launches. The country regained its position as the region’s largest vehicle market last year after it was overtaken by Thailand in 2020.


Thailand was the worst-performing market last year, with sales falling by 4.2% to 759,119 units after a 21% fall to 792,146 units in 2020, with economic activity held back by weak domestic confidence and restrictions on the all-important international tourism sector. Sales in Malaysia fell by almost 4% to 508,911 units in 2021, with the strict third-quarter lockdown having a significant impact on full-year sales.

New vehicle sales in the Philippines increased by just 2.6% to 94,883 units in the fourth quarter of 2021 from 92,520 units a year earlier, after declining by 7% in the third quarter.

Full-year sales rose by 20% to an estimated 330,445 units, including imports, driven mainly by a 56% rebound in the first half sales from depressed year-earlier levels. The market is currently struggling to regain momentum despite record-low interest rates, with the covid pandemic continuing to affect consumer confidence.

Vietnam‘s new vehicle sales increased by just 1.4% to 42,853 units in the fourth quarter of 2021, after a 50% plunge in the third quarter following the imposition of strict lockdown measures in response to surging Covid Delta infections. The economy contracted by over 6% year-on-year in the third quarter. Full-year sales were just slightly lower at 312,926 units, including sales of domestic startup VinFast, with a strong rebound in the first half of the year offset by a weak second half.

Most markets in the region are expected to continue to recover this year, supported by record low interest rates, new model launches and in some cases tax cuts that have been extended from last year. There is also still significant pent-up demand in the region following last year’s severe supply chain shortages.

All countries in the region are still closed to international tourism due to concerns over covid, which remains a significant drag on domestic economic growth and consumer sentiment, while the global semiconductor remains a significant issue for vehicle producers.

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Indonesia

New vehicle sales in Indonesia continued to rebound strongly in the fourth quarter of 2021, by 62% to 259,665 units from extremely depressed levels in the previous year. The market was seemingly unaffected by the strict covid lockdowns in the third quarter, with full year sales up by almost 67% at 887,202 units after plunging by 48% to 532,027 units in 2020. Passenger vehicle sales surged by 70% to 659,806 units, while commercial vehicle sales were up by 59% at 227,396 units.

Sales last year were lifted by the launch of important new models, record low interest rates and the suspension of the luxury tax on vehicles with engines up to 1500cc, while smaller tax discounts were also available on larger vehicles – with engines up to 2.5L. In January the government said it would extend these tax cuts until the end of March, as it looks to maintain the market’s strong growth momentum.

Toyota’s sales jumped by 83% to 295,768 units last year, with new models such as the Raize small crossover vehicle, the new Rush compact SUV and the all-new Avanza launched at the end of the year, helping to drive up volumes. Daihatsu’s sales were 82% higher at 164,908 units, lifted by the Rocky small crossover vehicle, new Terios compact SUV and the new all-new Xenia.

Mitsubishi’s sales surged by 86% to 107,605 units in 2021, lifted by upgrades to the Xpander and Xpander Cross models; followed by Suzuki with 91,793 units (+39%) and Honda with 91,122 units (+24%). In September Honda replaced its BR-V and Mobilio compact MPVs, although it is struggling to regain lost market share due strengthened competition.

At the end of last year China’s SAIC-GM-Wuling said it plans to launch a small electric vehicle (EV) in Indonesia in 2022, based on the purpose-built GSEV platform which is used for its best-selling Hongguang model. Hyundai too has indicated it plans to launch production of its Ioniq 5 EV in the second quarter at its newly built regional production hub in Bekasi, just east of Jakarta, in the hope that additional incentives will be made available for buyers of zero-emission vehicles.

Thailand

New vehicle sales in Thailand continued to decline in the fourth quarter of 2021, by over 6% to 233,206 units from 248,927 units in the same period of the previous year, based on data released by the Federation of Thai Industries.

The market failed to rebound in the fourth quarter after covid restrictions were eased from September, reflecting weak domestic sentiment as the all-important tourism sector continues to struggle due to ongoing restrictions on foreign arrivals. Leading manufacturers including Toyota said production was also affected by supply chain disruption caused by the covid pandemic, particularly semiconductor shortages.

The central bank kept its benchmark interest rate at a historic low of 0.5% in its January meeting, while the government recently introduced a number of measures to help stimulate the domestic economy – including soft loans and tax relief for small and medium companies, funding for local infrastructure projects, poverty relief and job creation programmes.

Over the full year vehicle sales fell by over 4% to 759,119 units from 792,146 units in 2020, with a positive first half more than offset by declining volumes in the second half of the year. Passenger vehicle sales fell by 3.4% to 374,763 units and pickup truck sales were down by 6.4% at 341,452 units, while sales of other vehicles including commercial vehicles increased by over 12% to 42,904 units.

Vehicle production in the country increased by over 18% to 1.68 million units last year, driven by a 36% increase in exports to 956,530 units.

The Federation is forecasting domestic vehicle sales to rise to between 800,000-850,000 units in 2022, barring any significant developments in the coronavirus pandemic and/or a major supply chain setback, with the domestic economy to be lifted by a gradual reopening of the international tourism sector and by stimulus measures.

Toyota Motor Thailand said it expects to see its sales rise by over 18% to 284,000 units in 2022 after declining by 2% to 239,723 units last year, while it expects the overall vehicle market to expand by 13% to 860,000 units.

Malaysia

Malaysia’s new vehicle market expanded by just 2.5% to 190,037 units in the fourth quarter of 2021 from 185,415 units a year earlier, according to registration data released by the Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA).

This follows a fall of almost 60% year-on-year in the third quarter, after the government introduced strict covid lockdowns in June in response to surging cases of the covid Delta variant. The market continued to be held back by supply chain shortages in the fourth quarter, while widespread flooding in large parts of the peninsula also disrupted economic activity in December.

Domestic sales fell by almost 4% to 508,911 last year from 529,514 units in 2020, with a strong first half more than offset by a weak second half of the year despite the suspension of the vehicle sales and service tax in June. Passenger vehicles sales fell by 6% to 452,663 units last year while commercial vehicles were up by 16% at 56,248 units.

Overall vehicle production was down by less than 1% at 485,186 units over the full year.

The MAA is forecasting an 18% rebound in total vehicle sales to 600,000 units in 2022, including 540,000 passenger vehicle and 60,000 commercial vehicles, reflecting significant order backlogs and as the economy begins to normalize after the pandemic disruption of the last two years. Local investment company Affin Hwang Capital was less upbeat, saying it expected the market to grow by just 3.4% this year.

The government has extended the vehicle sales tax holiday until the end of June 2022 to help support the market’s recovery and also announced full-tax exemption for electric vehicles (EVs).

Market leader Perodua reported a 14% sales decline to 190,291 vehicles in 2021 compared with 220,154 units in 2020, but said it expect volumes to recover to 240,000 units this year as supply chain shortages ease.

Proton confirmed its global sales increased by 4.5% to 114,708 last year, including 3,018 exports. The Saga was its best-selling model with 42,627 deliveries, followed by the Geely-based X50 and X70 SUVs with 28,774 and 16,375 units respectively and 16,153 Persona passenger cars. The company this week announced an agreement with China’s Smart Automobile to distribute its electric vehicles in Malaysia and Thailand.

Toyota and Lexus distributor UMW Toyota Motor’s sales increased by 22% to 72,394 units last year from 59,320 units in 2020, thanks to strong demand for its best-selling Vios compact passenger car. The company launched the Toyota Corolla Cross Hybrid in January.

ASEAN sales begin recovery in Q4 - Just Auto

ASEAN regional sales rebounded in Q4; Indonesia was region's best performing vehicle market in 2021.

www.just-auto.com

 

[Indos]

Indonesia’s Recovery Gains Pace, Virus Surge Clouds Outlook​

• GDP growth in the fourth quarter hit 5.02%, beating estimates
• Raw materials exports and renewed activity powers rebound

By
Claire Jiao
and Grace Sihombing
February 6, 2022, 8:20 PM PSTUpdated onFebruary 6, 2022, 10:50 PM PST

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Indonesia’s economic growth quickened in the final quarter of 2021, powered by resurgent domestic demand and the global commodity boom even as a virus resurgence looms.

Gross domestic product in the three months through December grew 5.02% from a year earlier, the country’s statistics agency said Monday, against the 4.81% median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists and 3.51% the previous quarter.

This brought full-year GDP growth to 3.69%, almost in line with the 3.7% analyst forecast and the government’s growth target of 3.7%-4.5%.

Indonesia’s benchmark stock index rose as much as 1.1% after the data was released, on course to close at a record high. The rupiah fell 0.16% to 14,403 to the dollar as of 1:48 p.m. Jakarta time, its weakest since Jan. 31.

Southeast Asia’s largest economy had benefited from a long stretch of low Covid-19 cases that allowed people to return to pre-pandemic habits in the final quarter of 2021. Consumption and public mobility rebounded, while firms responded in kind by ramping up manufacturing and imports of goods.

Exports also emerged as a growth engine for the resource-rich nation, as the recovery in developed nations created a rush for commodities from coal to metals.

“Higher international commodity prices pushed up Indonesia’s exports, which were impressive in the fourth quarter, and that impacted economic growth,” Margo Yuwono, head of the statistics office, said in a briefing, adding that economic activity and government spending accelerated again after being limited due to the virus wave in the previous quarter.

The government hopes the momentum can carry the economy through what could be its worst Covid-19 wave yet due amid the omicron strain. Daily cases are expected to reach as many as 285,000 this month, more than five times the peak of the delta outbreak. What Bloomberg Economics Says...

“Household spending may ebb in February and March as the omicron variant circulates more widely, but activity should recover and pick up further as the country approaches a 70% vaccination rate and loosens virus curbs. We still expect GDP to expand 5.5% this year and the central bank to start raising rates in 2Q, unless rupiah volatility forces it to move sooner.”

Tamara Mast Henderson, Asean economist

For the full note, click here

“It is a strong print that augurs well for recovery momentum going into 2022,” said Wellian Wiranto, economist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. “The ongoing omicron wave remains a tricky speed-bump, with Jakarta reporting its highest case tally recently. While the most stringent of social mobility restrictions may be avoidable, consumer confidence recovery might be less robust than before.”

Omicron Outbreak​

Indonesia sees a sharp increase in Covid-19 cases as omicron spreads

With cases at a six-month high, authorities raised movement restrictions to the second-highest level in Jakarta, Bandung and Bali in a separate briefing on Monday, cutting operating hours and maximum capacity for malls, supermarkets and restaurants.

Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto said that public optimism remains strong, estimating that GDP growth could register above 5% this quarter and increase further in the April-June period due to seasonal spending around the Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr festivities.

Details of the fourth-quarter performance, year-on-year, include:

• Private consumption +3.55%
• Government spending +5.25%
• Gross fixed capital formation +4.49%
• Exports +29.8%

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, GDP in the fourth quarter rose 1.06% from the previous three months, versus an estimate of 1.01%.

Indonesia’s Recovery Gains Pace, Virus Surge Clouds Outlook

Indonesia’s economic growth quickened in the final quarter of 2021, powered by resurgent domestic demand and the global commodity boom even as a virus resurgence looms.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[Indos]

Braving the Storms: East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, April 2022​

Just as the East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region was weathering recurrent COVID storms, 3 new clouds have gathered over the economic horizon: financial tightening in the U.S., structural slowdown in China, and the war in Ukraine. These difficulties should not, however, obscure the new avenues for growth in the region through trade and innovation. The April 2022 issue of the World Bank’s EAP Economic Update suggests bold reforms to avert the risks and grasp the opportunities.

The region’s economic recovery resumed in the fourth quarter of 2021. China’s economy grew by 8.1 percent in 2021, while the rest of the region grew by 2.6 percent. But the recovery has been uneven across EAP countries, with output still below pre-pandemic levels in many of the region’s economies. The worst affected and the slowest to recover are Myanmar and several Pacific Island countries.

The recovery is uneven across countries…
(percentage GDP growth between 2019-2021)

East Asia and Pacific Economic Update

In East Asia and the Pacific, three new challenges have gathered over the economic horizon: financial tightening in the U.S., structural slowdown in China, and the war in Ukraine. The report suggests bold reforms to avert the risks and grasp the opportunities.

www.worldbank.org

 

[Indos]

April PMI jumps to over 4-year high - BusinessWorld Online

THE PHILIPPINE manufacturing sector in April posted its best performance in over four years, reflecting the significant improvement in business conditions as pandemic restrictions eased.

www.bworldonline.com

 

[Bengal71]

Impressive numbers for Bangladesh

Alhamdulillah.

 

[Indos]

May 12, 2022

ASEAN vehicle markets surge 23% in Q1​

A first quarter demand surge means vehicle markets in southeast Asia have returned to pre-pandemic levels.

Vehicle sales in the ASEAN region’s six largest markets combined rose by almost 23% to 832,390 units in the first quarter of 2022 from 677,397 units a year earlier, according to data compiled by www.AsiaMotorBusiness.com from various industry sources including vehicle manufacturers, trade associations and government departments.

Indonesia led the rebound with vehicle sales surging by over 41% to 263,822 units, as most markets in the region returned to pre-pandemic levels despite new restrictions imposed in the region during the quarter in response to the latest surge in Covid infections.

Sales in Thailand rose by over 22% to 231,189 units in the first quarter, while in Malaysia the market was up by over 14% at 159,752 units, with stronger growth expected for the remainder of the year.


Interest rates have been kept at historically low levels and governments continue to provide fiscal stimulus to drive economic growth. A surge in commodity prices has also helped some economies, while consumer and business sentiment has been lifted by a gradual return of international tourism to the region.

Rising prices of energy and other commodities as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine are beginning to be felt, however, while its impact on exports has so far been limited.


Sales in Vietnam surged by 29% to 85,797 units in the first quarter of 2022 from already buoyant levels a year earlier, driven by 5% growth in economic activity in the country.

Sales in the Philippines, excluding data from members of the AVID importers’ association, rose by just over 6% to 74,754 vehicles in the first-quarter. Total sales were lifted by a 43% surge in March after a slow start to the year due mainly to restrictions imposed in January in response to the latest surge in the covid pandemic.

Indonesia


New vehicle sales in Indonesia continued to rebound in the first quarter of 2022, by over 41% to 263,822 from weak year-earlier sales of 187,021 units, according to data released by local industry association Gaikindo.

Passenger vehicle sales surged by over 46% to 197,762 units while commercial vehicle sales were up by over 28% at 66,060 units.

The country’s economy continued to rebound from weak year-earlier levels, although a surge in Covid infections in the country in March is expected to have dampened growth for the quarter. First-quarter GDP growth is estimated at over 4%, driven by strong domestic consumption and exports.

The vehicle market has benefited from historically-low interest rates, with Bank Indonesia holding its benchmark rate at 3.5%, as well as by a large number of important new model releases over the last year.

Toyota reported 41% sales rise to 81,095 vehicles in the first quarter, driven by the all-new popular Avanza compact MPV, the new Rush compact SUV and the Raize small crossover vehicle.

Daihatsu’s sales were up by over 44% at 50,820 units, lifted by the recent launch of the Rocky small crossover vehicle, the new Xenia compact MPV and the new Terios compact SUV.

Mitsubishi made the strongest gains among the country’s mainstream automakers, with sales rising by almost 55% to 33,654 units, thanks to strong demand for its Xpander and Xpander Cross models, while Suzuki’s sales increased by just 14% to 22,371 units.

Thailand

New vehicle sales in Thailand increased by over 22% to 231,189 units in the first quarter from 189,093 in the same period of last year, driven by strong demand for pickup trucks. The data exclude some significant brands, particularly commercial vehicles by Chinese and European manufacturers and also BMW and Mercedes-Benz passenger vehicles.

While economic activity has picked up in recent months, helped by government stimulus policies, a surge in Covid infections in March and the Russian invasion of Ukraine is expected to dampen economic activity in the country.

Bank of Thailand kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a historic low of 0.5% to help underpin domestic consumption amid rising uncertainty. The Finance Ministry cut its full-year GDP growth forecast to 3.5% from 4.0% as a result of the war in the Ukraine.

Vehicle exports fell by almost 6% to 243,124 units in the first quarter, which the Federation of Thai Industries blamed in part on the continued shortage of semiconductors for some car models.

In view of the strong first-quarter market performance, the FTI suggested full-year domestic sales could reach 900,000 units this year – up from its earlier forecast of between 800,000-850,000 units, after sales fell by 4% to 759,119 units in 2021.

Malaysia

Registrations of new vehicles in Malaysia rose by 14.5% to 159,752 units in the first quarter of 2022 from 139,499 unit a year earlier, according to registration data released by the Malaysia Automotive Association (MAA). Passenger vehicle sales rose by 14% to 140,140 units, while commercial vehicle sales surged by 21% to 19,612 units.

The market continued to be disrupted by last December’s floods in key parts of the country, with Proton the worst affected among the country’s mainstream automakers. Other manufacturers have since managed to ramp up production to fulfil strong order backlogs.

The country’s leading automaker Perodua saw its sales increase by over 6% to 61,624 units in the first quarter and UMW Toyota’s sales surged by 32% to 22,447 units, while Proton’s sales plunged by 19% to 26,706 units in the same period.

Economic growth is expected to approach 5% in the first quarter of 2022, driven by strong exports and domestic stimulus measures which is helping to drive up domestic consumption. Over the full year GDP growth is forecast to exceed 6% from weak 2021 levels.

The MAA has forecast the domestic market to expand by 18% to over 600,000 units in 2022 after the declines of the last two years.

Vehicle sales in the ASEAN region, 2019-2022​

Table with 7 columns and 7 rows. Currently displaying rows 1 to 7.

Country	2019	2020	2021	2021 Q1	2022 Q1	% Change
Indonesia	1,030,126	532,027	887,202	187,021	263,822	41
Thailand	1,007,552	792,146	759,119	189,093	231,189	22
Malaysia	604,281	529,434	508,911	139,499	159,752	15
Vietnam	322,322	313,463	312,926	73,333	92,525	26
Philippines	416,637	275,512	330,445	70,312	74,754	6
Singapore	86,939	45,511	58,413	18,139	10,413	−43
Total	3,467,857	2,488,093	2,857,016	677,397	832,455	23

Source: Industry sources

ASEAN vehicle markets surge 23% in Q1

Vehicle markets in southeast surged in the first quarter.

www.just-auto.com

 

[Indos]

SOUTHEAST ASIA's Economic Growth Leader : Q1 2022​

32,613 views
Premiered May 25, 2022

 

[Indos]

Which ASEAN Countries Will Be The Front-Runners To Decarbonize Their Power Sectors?​

Aug. 25, 2022 1:20 AM ETEWS, THD, EWM, IDX, EIDO, EPHE, VNM, VNAM

Summary​

• Given its location and proximity to oceans, ASEAN is one of the most vulnerable regions to the impact of global warming.
• In recognizing the risks, the region has set decarbonization targets, pledged reduction plans in their nationally determined contributions (NDCs), and passed laws and policies to address climate change.
• This report will briefly describe the region's national emission targets and then take an in-depth view of the power sector, ranging from PDPs and future generation fuel mix to emission perspectives.

sarawuth702/iStock via Getty Images

Given its location and proximity to oceans, ASEAN is one of the most vulnerable regions to the impact of global warming. In recognizing the risks, the region has set decarbonization targets, pledged reduction plans in their nationally determined contributions (NDCs), and passed laws and policies to address climate change.

This report will briefly describe the region's national emission targets and then take an in-depth view of the power sector, ranging from PDPs and future generation fuel mix to emission perspectives; in particular, which country or countries' power sector will be the front-runners leading the decarbonization pathway in the next 10-15 years.

ASEAN power sectors' emission perspective in relation to their climate targets​

Of the 10 ASEAN countries, 8 have announced national targets to achieve net-zero GHG emissions or to become carbon neutral by 2050, corresponding to the 1.5°C target set by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), except Indonesia, which committed to net zero by 2060, and the Philippines, which is the only ASEAN country that has not committed to a net-zero target.


However, despite these pledges, most ASEAN countries have not yet developed firm measures to help them achieve the targets. Also, an important part of net-zero actions is to reduce coal use in power generation, but current PDPs mostly do not reflect the coal phaseout plans, neither do they align with their net-zero targets.

According to the current PDPs and the region's ability to deploy clean energy, there will still be substantial coal power capacity, mostly already under construction, to be added in the major power systems. Therefore, ASEAN is expected to witness coal-fired generation growth in the next seven years.

Post-2030, the reliance on coal will ease over time, with more renewable projects coming online. Accordingly, the power sector's emission would reduce but not reach net zero by 2050. Figure 1 illustrates the region's power sector's carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) emission through 2050.

ASEAN power sector CO2e emissions will continue to grow and peak at 805 million metric tons (MMT) in 2029. Emissions will then plateau between 2029 and 2040, as the region retires 20 GW of coal capacity (40% from Malaysia) in this period while adding 54 GW of new gas capacity to provide stable power output and to balance the renewables.

The region's total emission will move downward only from 2041, owing to accelerated renewable growth combined with a phase-down of coal in total power generation.
The reduction will accelerate from 2045 owing to the implementation of multiple decarbonization measures in the region, including large-scale coal capacity retirement and the expectation of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies being installed largely on new thermal power plants.

Grid emission factors will improve significantly from 0.54 kg/kWh in 2019 to 0.18 kg/kWh by 2050. Besides, progress in attaining the emission peak remains uneven among individual countries.

Front-runner club analysis​

In the next 5-15 years, Singapore is positioned to be the leader in the decarbonization of the power sector. It is the only country that is projected to achieve a CO2e emission reduction (9%) in 2030 compared with the 2019 level (see Figure 2).

It is followed by Malaysia and Thailand, each representing an emission growth of 11% and 12%. Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines will lag owing to heavy dependence on coal-fired generation and reliance on external funding to support projects

Singapore power sector's CO2e emissions are expected to peak in mid 2020s, as the country not only set a net-zero target but also made tangible actions by deploying domestic renewable projects, planning for low-carbon/renewable imports, and applying carbon tax to incentivize low-carbon energy.

In alignment with the country's net-zero targets, the government launched various programs to aggregately deploy solar power. In addition, the country is actively exploring renewable import projects, with two rounds of requests for proposals (RFPs) launched to call for up to 4 GW of dispatchable low-carbon power imports, mostly to come online before 2035.

A positive decarbonization perspective will also be aided by efficiency improvements of gas-fired generators (some of which have already signed contracts with the equipment suppliers for upgrades) and the carbon tax that started with S$5 per metric ton of carbon dioxide equivalent between 2019 and 2023, with a plan to increase to S$50-80 by 2030.

Thailand is also in the front-runner club, after Singapore. Thailand power sector's emission will have a brief increase from oil during 2022-23 as some gas plants have temporarily switched to burning oil owing to gas price hikes. From 2024 onward, emissions will continue to grow but at modest rates as the country manages to cap the generation from coal-fired power plants.

Thailand stopped building new coal plants and will continue to promote renewable energy. Thailand has launched the Bio-Circular Green (BCG) economic model as the national agenda to promote renewable energy, and the National Energy Policy Committee (NEPC) approved the New RE Quota for purchasing 5.2 GW electricity from renewables under a feed-in-tariff (FIT) scheme between 2022 and 2030.

Coupled with the renewable expansion, Thailand has made significant progress toward smart grids and prepared the enactment of third-party access codes to the power grid systems. Thailand also intended to increase imports from Laos's hydropower and is accelerating legal and policy actions to implement enhanced carbon pricing.

Similar to Thailand, Malaysia is ranked high from a low-carbon perspective. The country has stopped building new coal-fired power plants and announced plans to retire the existing coal fleet in stages or once PPAs with each facility expire. In addition, Malaysia is endowed with abundant gas resources, and it could quickly ramp up gas capacity to make up for the capacity loss from coal.

Malaysia has represented strong renewable energy demand. To promote renewables, the country has awarded 2.2GW capacity in four rounds of large-scale solar (LSS) tenders and released the Malaysia Renewable Energy Roadmap (MyRER) to provide detailed plans for expanding the use of renewable energy sources and support further decarbonization of the electricity sector through 2035.

As a result, emissions will slowly increase for a few years and reduce significantly owing to gas replacing coal alongside the renewable boom, presumably from 2030.

Followers struggling between economic growth and decarbonization​

Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines are facing the same dilemma. They represent the strongest economic growth in ASEAN and require substantial new power capacity, including reliable thermal power plants, to sustain the growing demand. Meanwhile, they are the most coal-reliant countries and decarbonizing the existing power fleet appears to be a difficult task.

Vietnam has announced a net-zero target and made commitments to quit coal at COP26, but no strategic report has been issued to clarify the route to the net-zero target. The quit-coal statement was not joined by specific proposals.

In fact, despite PDP8 drafts showing that Vietnam's power system would center on gas and wind, the capacity of coal and wind moves up and down in different drafts (see Figure 3), and the final release has been delayed repeatedly.

Furthermore, the expansion of renewable capacity in the past three years came with great challenges to Vietnam's grid system. Therefore, in January 2022 Vietnam's National Load Dispatch Center (NLDC) announced not to add wind and solar power to the 2022 national plan.

In view of the investment deficiency in the grid not being able to accommodate the renewable expansion, Vietnam is to consider opening the grid sector to private and foreign investors.
Nevertheless, Vietnam has one wild card to play, that is its two big gas blocks: Block B and Cá Voi Xanh. Should prices of LNG imports continue to trend higher, Vietnam may try to push forward its domestic gas development more and accelerate the coal retirement accordingly.

Indonesia is heavily coal-reliant and has been slow to develop renewables. Therefore, CO2e emissions will grow quickly through 2041 owing to increasing power generation from coal-fired power plants. In the next five years, more coal capacity will still be added, and coal generation share will remain high.

Various plans around coal have been announced, but key ones (PLN coal retirement plan will be after the completion of 16GW planned mega coal projects; the country's low-carbon vision, LTS-LCCR 2050, still specifies that coal will continue to have an important role in the power sector; and recent New and Renewable Energy Bill classified liquified and gasified coal as "new energy" and is part of Indonesia's efforts to replace petroleum imports) delivered the same message that Indonesia is not ready to remove coal from the power sector in the medium term and even in the long term.

Meanwhile, instead of phasing out coal, Indonesia has been actively involved in biomass co-firing to phase down coal use. It also established a carbon tax, but the initial price of 30 Indonesian rupiah per kilogram of CO2e, or US$2.09, is viewed as being too low to incentivize decarbonization actions. All these actions could slow the emission growth rate before 2041 but would not move the peaking earlier.

The Philippines is the only ASEAN country that has not committed to a net zero target. It is well positioned for more renewable development in terms of policies, procurement, and economics. However, the only domestic gas source (Malampaya) is depleting, and the introduction of LNG has been slow. It appears difficult for the country to completely phase out coal soon.

In December 2020, the Philippines's energy secretary announced a moratorium of new coal plants. In 2021, power companies announced discontinuing some coal projects. However, at least half of the planned coal capacity stays on the table.

Therefore, the Philippines's emissions will likely grow following the coal-fired generation growth through 2028. It remains to be seen if the newly elected President Ferdinand Marcos Jr would commit to favor renewables and roll out decarbonization measures.
Original Post

Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.

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