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As U.S. Leaves Afghanistan, India Reconsiders Iran Policy

That is not true.

Trouble in Afghanistan started when their elite invited communism, while their people did not want it.

Not exactly , the people didn't wanted foreigners. They had no problem when their government had communist tendency .

In their fight against USSR extreme views of Islam and intolerance had no place . But later when arab fighters decided to make afghanistan base of their operations and they started to preach their version of islam . Everything become problematic
 
Now a days I am really not reading much about Afganistan...because it is in such a mess that the people of that country to do not evolve themselves...God only knows about what will happen next to them..
 
Well, iran intrest in Afghanistan is more in line with having a secure border in east of our country . also when it come to iran - pakistan inttest in Afghanistan honestly I don't see much hope that they see matters in the same light .for some reasons Iran tends to favor hazareh and tajic ethnicity in Afghanistan and Pakistan tends to favor pashtoons in it's calculations about Afghanistan . Another problem is the ideology that is not indigenous to afghanistan and exported from some some countries in south of persian gulf into pashtoons dominate area of Afghanistan it seems pakistan can live with this ideology but Iran see it as a major deestabilizing factor in the region .

If these two difference somehow don't get solved I can't see how in future Pakistan and Iran follow the same approach in Afghanistan. And honestly it would be hard to imagine we can have a peaceful and stable Afghanistan in future without solving these differences or afghan government fix it's act and actually do something about corruption in it's rank and start to solve the big problem of warlords. Right now it seems in afghanistan everybody is investing in one warlord to increase its influence and share

i don't know the exact religious, ethnic mix that so complicates iran-pakistan relations and complicates any possible coordination of their postures in afghanistan. i only know that it is far more complex than i can possibly know (it is continental eurasia, after all, when all borders are results of long-drawn and long-entrenched ethnic and religious forces, unlike in africa and latin america where borders can be arbitrarily painted and repainted on european whims).

i only ask that iran and pakistan consider the simple fact that neither iran nor pakistan could ever hope to secure themselves against each other. and there are two layers to what i mean. first, there is no need for iran and pakistan to seek alliances that can shore up oneself against and at the expense of the other because there is no amount of self-augmentation that either iran or pakistan could do that can put one or the other definitively above the other and completely, irreversibly prevail over the other. therefore, iran-pak relation isn't like pak-india relationship: with the latter, india clearly aspires to total domination and is always just one successful campaign away from totally dominating pakistan and the entire subcontinent. with iran-pak relationship, it would be more like france and germany: there is no amount of conflict, no amount of self-augmentation that can put either definitively and permanently on the top, and it is utterly meaningless for either iran or pakistan to even try to do that by creating certain ethnic alliances or political coalitions in afghanistan close to iranian or pakistani borders. In the case of iran-pak relations, iranians can think it is nice to have tajiks seize more territory and power in afghanistan and pakistanis can think it is nice to reinforce the pathans, but ultimately the balance of power is between the demographic and economic strengths of iranians and pakistanis and not the smaller ethnicities and nations in the area. So iran and pakistan both think it is nice to have their respective allies gain more ground in afghanistan, even though ultimately iranians and pakistanis can both fend for themselves even if all their smaller allies fail. So this jockeying in afghanistan is helpful to both iran and pakistan but is ultimately unnecessary to iran and pakistan’s security vis-a-vis each other.

this leads to the second layer of my meaning. afghanistan in this sense is more like belgium: the absorption of belgium by either france or germany would be too small of an impact to tilt the balance of power permanently and decisively in favor of either germany or france but too big NOT to provoke a reaction from the other party and thus a total war, which nevertheless will never settle anything between france and germany (exactly because absorption of belgium is really not that a big deal and the party that lost belgium would not be hurt so much that it could not mount a comeback). So any advantage iran and pakistani can seek over each other will be temporary and fleeting and will necessarily provoke a response from the other party to do something else in afghanistan. Because neither iran nor pakistan can strike a blow so fatal that it can completely disable the other side (again, this is NOT like the indian threat to pakistan), then both sides will forever exchange blows after blows. Each blow will hurt, just not so much that the party that suffered the blow couldn’t return a blow. So iran and pakistan can never secure themselves against each other not only because they don’t need to but also because they really cannot: if they keep hitting each other, then they will keep hitting each other to no end, both in terms of time and of purpose.

with their physical promixity, iran and pakistan can also really hurt each other; as two neighbors of similar size and capabilities, iran and pakistan can never overthrow each other. So it is always to be a “hurt, but not that hurt” cycle. Again, this is the difference between iran-pak and india-pak relations: pakistan must secure itself with nuclear weapons against india because india really does want to overthrow pakistan and any blow from a conventional, large scale indian attack can be annihilitory for pakistan.

Therefore, it would be silly if the two sides don’t try to work something out and accommodate each other (just like it would be silly for pakistan and india – or china and vietnam, china and taiwan, or US and mexico, or russia and georgia - to try to accommodate each other because these pairs are not geopolitical and military equals). Now pak-iran relation is also going to be different from pak-china relationship because china wants almost nothing from afghanistan and doesn’t lose much if china completely subordinates its own diplomatic goals in afghanistan to pakistani goals in afghanistan. Iran does have independent security interests - and very big ones at that, unlike china, which only wants to mine the whole damn country (and as a chinese I don’t even feel the need to be defensive about it) - in afghanistan, and so pakistan cannot simply expect iran to accept pakistan’s diktats and terms in afghanistan. The iranian and pakistani sides really need to have a cordial talk about what constitutes each’s most vital interests in afghanistan and how these interests can be mutually accommodated. As the two biggest stakeholders in afghanistan – bigger than russians and chinese, bigger than all the afghans themselves, and much, much bigger than angloamericans and yindoos – iran and pakistan need to show the sense of responsibility, maturity and mutual respect to settle their differences in afghanistan. If they can do that, then all other chips will fall into place because combined, iran and pakistan exercise unparalleled influence in afghanistan that can decisively shape how other players fare in afghanistan. For two countries unequal in size, security competition brings total dominion for the big power (e.g., india) and brings independence and dignity for the small (e.g. pakistan), but for two equals that can really hurt each other because of geographic access and ethnic and religious intercourse, security competition will only bring endless frustration to all parties, just like europe in the modern era. I am sure the age and wisdom of the two civilizations of persia and indus valley can figure out ways to coexist and fairly divide their interests in afghanistan and central asia.
 
In truth nobody gives a damn about Pakistan in International Community anymore.In the eyes of the world it has lost it's self respect and position and is in the same boat as North Korea , Syria and Somalia. Today Pakistan's only bargaining chip is Terrorist activity which they used to use for protection money from USA, Afghanistan. But as was shown by recent border clashes Afghans are fed up of this attitude.

Undoubtedly India and China are rising great powers in the world. Pakistan cannot bear this and resorts to "asymmetric" assets for the Indian stakeholders. After China's investment of 3bn$ , India has contributed 2 bn$ to Afghanistan. I have hope in Nawaz Sharif who is sensible and forward thinking but will the Army lobby and ISI - Taliban nexus allow it?
 
That is not true.

Trouble in Afghanistan started when their elite invited communism, while their people did not want it.

Dude, Pakistan started interfering in Afghanistan just after Daoud Khan's coup.
 
History /Records tell takes and rest is history

Provide a credible proof for your claim of Taliban consisting of 95% Pakistani military men instead of trying to change the topic or else admit that you were talking without having even an iota of knowledge of the situation and ground realities in that country .

As simple as that , kid . I am not interested in your so called record . You cant get away with a second twisted example in support of your hollow first claim .
 
With Nawaz Sharif winning in Pakistan, the India-Iran relationship will now reach new heights.
 
PLENTY!!!
Why do you think that Paksitan gets the itch when India is involved in Afghanistan?

Insignificant and not even worthy to be mentioned influence on the Tajiks and Hazaras who live in the Northern areas - that part of Afghanistan doesn't share border with Iran . The Ayatollahs do not want to do business with the majority Pashtuns in that country and have refused transit trade in the past sadly .

Compare that with the Pakistani influence on the Pashtuns living in that country which share border with us as well as Tehran - tell me yourself who has got the advantage here ?

In truth nobody gives a damn about Pakistan in International Community anymore.In the eyes of the world it has lost it's self respect and position

In truth , look what happened to the Bonn conference and Chicago summit when Pakistan refused to participate .

Next , open the atlas and have a look at Pakistan's map and then google the strategic importance of our location .

Instead of making childish statements without knowing anything .
 
America i snot leaving. They will have a dozen bases with drone capability. They will bomb any training camps in the future and aim for high value targets. ALWAYS BET ON AMERIC....THE WORLD'S BEST TERROR FIGHTER!

Sometimes , I really laugh at this kind of statements enlightening us how US will suddenly turn the tide after the withdrawal whether partial or complete . It hardly matters , whether your US is leaving or not from Afghanistan , the war is lost and its only damage limitation now . Did they not have drones before 01's ? Do they not have them now ? So if it couldn't made a difference then , what are you expecting in your fool's paradise now ? The million men strong coalition with all its might couldn't do jack in Afghanistan in their decade long campaign wasting trillions and loosing thousands of soldiers and now they are leaving , literally begging the Taliban to come to the negotiating table to the extent that they have been offered to be part of Govt and allowed offices in Qatar and you expect a couple thousand soldiers stranded in bases around Afghanistan with UAV support to magically turn things right overnight :azn:

What should I call it ? Delusional thinking , perhaps ?
 
Americans will be utter fools if they think that the Region in general and Afghanistan have any hopes of stabilisation without Iranian involvement.
Iran is a big player in the region and must be recognized as such. That is the way forward.

Americans were fool when they attacked Afghanistan for no reason what so ever. After losing trillions and 1000s of soldiers not to mention millions of afghans in this fruitless war they have realized its a non win able war .The only parties who actually benefited from this ordeal was new Delhi and Tehran.New Delhi which used its influence with Kabul mayor to try to destabilize pakistan via afghan Intelligence and 100s of its consulates plus not to mention lucrative mining contracts.

India voted against Iran to get civilian nuclear tech plus other economic goodies from yanks ans now are throwing a bones Tehran way by announcing this 100 million dollars expansion which is excellent for Iranian as it improves there port without spending a dime of there own money.

Question is how Building these roads and railway links going to help India. As soon as Kabul mayor is gone Tehran influence on whole of Afghanistan will also weaken or move on to northern alliance areas only?

Can some one please explain this to me

The pipeline’s potential extension to China is a nightmare scenario for policymakers in New Delhi.
 
Sometimes , I really laugh at this kind of statements enlightening us how US will suddenly turn the tide after the withdrawal whether partial or complete . It hardly matters , whether your US is leaving or not from Afghanistan , the war is lost and its only damage limitation now . Did they not have drones before 01's ? Do they not have them now ? So if it couldn't made a difference then , what are you expecting in your fool's paradise now ? The million men strong coalition with all its might couldn't do jack in Afghanistan in their decade long campaign wasting trillions and loosing thousands of soldiers and now they are leaving , literally begging the Taliban to come to the negotiating table to the extent that they have been offered to be part of Govt and allowed offices in Qatar and you expect a couple thousand soldiers stranded in bases around Afghanistan with UAV support to magically turn things right overnight :azn:

What should I call it ? Delusional thinking , perhaps ?


I think you underestimate the US. They have completely destoryed the top leadership of such groups. As new faces arise, they will be taken out in due time. It is quite convenient to use drones, as the collateral damage is minimum. The Taliban is not being begged to come abroad. Its being used as a tool to get other nations to step up to the plate. I guess sort of like a threat....
 
I think you underestimate the US. They have completely destoryed the top leadership of such groups. As new faces arise, they will be taken out in due time. It is quite convenient to use drones, as the collateral damage is minimum. The Taliban is not being begged to come abroad. Its being used as a tool to get other nations to step up to the plate. I guess sort of like a threat....

Yeah , still there is no such thing as Central Govt in Afghanistan , the writ of the so called Afghan puppet Govt hardly extends beyond Kabul , ANA isn't even remotely ready as per the US commanders themselves operating under US supervision and air support and a force with poor morale and extremely low levels of training and the International groups themselves admit that majority of areas are still under insurgent's control . In these militant group's ideology , the top leadership doesn't mean a damn because another one is ready to take the place of the former to fulfill his incomplete mission . The situation is as worse as ever just that the Taliban aren't in power in Kabul . Bravo on your great achievement in 10 years . Does this look like a victory to you or mission accomplished ? Has Afghanistan became peaceful ? Is it on the way to economical prosperity and development ? What is there to overestimate or praise the coalition the Americans put together ? Tell me yourself .

US has been using drones since ages and the situation's the same . How exactly is it going to turn the tide in your favor after the withdrawal in 2014 when the bulk of the forces or all leave is beyond me ! This isn't the first time I am hearing that how some thousand soldiers in bases across Afghanistan with UAV support are going to win the coalition this war when it couldn't be won with the full might of the world's most powerful fighting machine and its million strong army .

The Talibans were literally begged to come to the negotiation table and open offices in Qatar , why do you see " Pakistan should co-operate with Afghan Govt for peace process " from the US top leadership if the war's won as per you ? Or the Taliban are co-operating as per the plan ?
 

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