As trade war looms, the US looks confident. China, not so much

[Jlaw]

You know it's ok to accept that the american actions will strongly impact the Chinese economy.
Their is no loss of face here , it's just business and politics.
Instead of being in denial , the discussion can be on the options with China.
1. Retaliate - but as in the link , since total export to China is only 170 b USD from USA , as compared to 500 from China to USA , the effect will be much less.
2. Negotiate - accept that some of the american demands are genuine like restricted access to Chinese mkt. Open up your mkt , do away with tech transfer conditions .
3. Do nothing. Does a 10 % duty on Chinese goods really make them non competitive ?
4. Fight the duties in WTO.

The .02 growth rate was from a professor of ecoomics. I trust him more than some Indian oretening to be white pulling stats out of things air.

 

[saltyashell]

The .02 growth rate was from a professor of ecoomics. I trust him more than some Indian oretening to be white pulling stats out of things air.

China 'shocked' by US actions in trade dispute
China said it is "shocked" after the US announced plans for fresh tariffs, escalating a trade war between the two countries.

The US listed $200bn (£150bn) worth of additional products it intends to place tariffs on as soon as September.

The move comes just days after the two countries imposed tit-for-tat tariffs of $34bn on each other's goods.

Beijing described Washington's latest threat as "totally unacceptable," saying it would harm the world.

"The behaviour of the US is hurting China, hurting the world and hurting itself," a spokesperson for China's commerce ministry said in a statement.

The spokesperson also said the government would have to take the "necessary counter-measures".

The list names more than 6,000 items including food products, minerals and consumer goods such as handbags.

The public will have until the end of August to comment on the list before the new tariffs - to be imposed at 10% - come into effect.

Analysis: Andrew Walker, economics correspondent

China says it will respond to the new tariffs that President Trump has asked his administration to prepare. But how?

It cannot directly match the total of $234bn worth of goods that the US has in its sights, because it does not import enough American goods (another fact which the US president complains about). Last year, US goods exports to China were worth $130bn.

What Beijing could do instead is to make life more difficult for American business interests, with more aggressive action by regulators, such as safety inspections or financial investigations. China could also try to force its currency lower to gain competitiveness.

There has even been speculation that China could sell some of the $1 trillion worth of US government debt (or bonds) that it holds. If it sold enough, that could drive up the cost of borrowing in the US, but it would also inflict losses on China, by forcing down the value of those bonds.

Asian stock markets fell sharply on Wednesday as investors shunned risk amid escalating trade tensions between the two economic giants.

In China, Hong Kong's Hang Seng index dropped 1.5%, while the Shanghai Composite fell 1.8%. Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 index shed 1.2%.

White House says the tariffs are a response to unfair trade practices by China.

The US wants China to stop practices that allegedly encourage transfer of intellectual property - design and product ideas - to Chinese companies, such as requirements that foreign firms share ownership with local partners to access the Chinese market.

US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said there was "no justification" for China's retaliation.

"As in the past, the United States is willing to engage in efforts that could lead to a resolution of our concerns about China's unfair trade practices and to China opening its market to US goods and services," he said.

"In the meantime, we will remain vigilant in defending the ability of our workers and businesses to compete on a fair and reciprocal basis."

I guess these are not my figures.

Today in BBC.

 

[Tauren Paladin]

China will grow to become a developed country and the largest economy. Haters can go repeat the same crap over and over again for the next 100 years.

 

[Viva_Viet]

China says it will respond to the new tariffs that President Trump has asked his administration to prepare. But how?
It cannot directly match the total of $234bn worth of goods that the US has in its sights, because it does not import enough American goods (another fact which the US president complains about). Last year, US goods exports to China were worth $130bn.



Today in BBC.

SO hilarious

Just imagine when US slap 500 billion tariff, hundred million Cnese lose jobs, no food, starving in every winter while King XI cant do anything to US.

Risk of big CN chaos coming so close wt 500 billion tariff

 

[ohmrlobalobayeh]

Look at the ratios.

While China is larger (way larger), Indonesia still has a surplus 2x larger than its imports (so we export 3x times more than import). China has a surplus 3x larger than its imports.

Both, according to Trump are 'abnormally high trade surplus'.

21% of China's GDP is based on exports. And 20% of its trade is with America. 0.21 x 0.2 = 0.042 X100% =4.2%

11% of America GDP is based on exports. Roughly 10% of its trade is with China. 0.11 x 0.1 = 1.1%

we are looking at the amount in this context- not the ratio. This is why the US has left those countries it is trading with, with smaller deficits- alone. Almost every nation trading with the US have a trade surplus- they are the largest consumers in the world(more than they can produce)- has been, up until now and foreseeable for the immediate future though China would likely take this position in 2030+/-, maybe even earlier.




https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2016-us-vs-china-economy/ <== there's even an interactive slider to change the predictable year China will overtake the US to become the world's top based on growth rates



"China’s GDP will overtake the U.S. level in 2029 at these projected average growth rates:
U.S.
2.0%

China
6.5%"





Even Indonesia's industry minister stated:

"Mr Airlangga said he did not foresee any imminent trade tension with Washington, as South-east Asia's largest economy ranks quite low in the list of countries with which the United States has a trade deficit."

yet u paint of picture of indonesia currently maintaining a hostile trading relationship with the US when other than natural resources-driven exports typical of Africa and the Middle East such as natural gas, palm oil, crude oil, etc- she is hardly even an industrial powerhouse exporting any significant excess amount of goods to the US(to the American's perception). In fact, Indonesia exports more to China than she did to the US:

http://www.worldstopexports.com/indonesias-top-15-import-partners/

"Below is a list showcasing 15 of Indonesia’s top trading partners, countries that imported the most Indonesian shipments by dollar value during 2017. Also shown is each import country’s percentage of total Indonesian exports.

1. China: US$23 billion (13.7% of total Indonesian exports)
2. United States: $17.8 billion (10.6%)
3. Japan: $17.8 billion (10.5%)
4. India: $14.1 billion (8.3%)
5. Singapore: $12.8 billion (7.6%)
6. Malaysia: $8.5 billion (5%)
7. South Korea: $8.2 billion (4.8%)
8. Philippines: $6.6 billion (3.9%)
9. Thailand: $6.5 billion (3.8%)
10. Taiwan: $4.2 billion (2.5%)
11. Netherlands: $4 billion (2.4%)
12. Vietnam: $3.6 billion (2.1%)
13. Germany: $2.7 billion (1.6%)
14. Australia: $2.5 billion (1.5%)
15. Pakistan: $2.4 billion (1.4%)"

I do appreciate the premium keretek Gudang garam cigarettes that Indonesia produces though. I have a personal love for them. 1 stick can last for 30mins to 45mins compared to the 5-6mins that a typical cig lasts. i can leave a smoked stick by my ash tray at the side of my computer table, play 2 rounds of PUBG and come back to see that there's still 1/2 a stick of Gudang garam left.

21% of China's GDP is based on exports. And 20% of its trade is with America. 0.21 x 0.2 = 0.042 X100% =4.2%

i repeat: where did u get this from? im asking cos im looking at a different set of data from what u have stated.

not to mention if if anything, China is currently in the process of transiting into consumer economy. It's aim is to generate a consumer critical mass at home. There's almost a Chinese equivalent for everything else that the rest of the Western-dominated world is using. There's this article done by DHL for global world trade from China by freight volume. All signs are indicating that China's ocean-bound exports by volume are going on a downward trend, meaning that less goods are leaving Chinese shores and being consumed within China itself.

http://www.asiaone.com/corporate-news-media-outreach/consumptiondriven-economy-to-drive-china’s-continued-trade-growth

 

[Nan Yang]

Look at the ratios.

While China is larger (way larger), Indonesia still has a surplus 2x larger than its imports (so we export 3x times more than import). China has a surplus 3x larger than its imports.

Both, according to Trump are 'abnormally high trade surplus'.

21% of China's GDP is based on exports. And 20% of its trade is with America. 0.21 x 0.2 = 0.042 X100% =4.2%

11% of America GDP is based on exports. Roughly 10% of its trade is with China. 0.11 x 0.1 = 1.1%

That is only true if you assume US consumer will stop buying because it costs 10% more.

 

[Mista]

No. It would only reflect .02 growth of Chinese GDP if Murica put$500b tariffs on Chinese goods

The RMB's credibility is highly dependent on the USD the PBoC holds. It uses the USD to back the printing of the RMB and that is the reason why China keeps on buying US bonds.

The number one source of USD is obviously the $300b trade surplus with the US every year. The problem here is that China has printed too much RMB and released too much liquidity into the economy since 2009, which is then soaked up by the property market.

坦率地说，近十年来，中国M2的发行量几乎是世界第一。我们的M2对GDP之比为2.1：1，而美国为0.9：1。发了这么多货币，为什么大家感觉不到呢？有很多原因，但有两个原因最为重要。

一是我们的基础货币发行很大程度是用外汇占款来实现的。也就是央行收购企业和公司个人手中的美元，按照市场汇率再释放出人民币，通过这种方式把流动性释放出来。

外汇占款占到央行释放流动性的比例最高时达到80%以上，目前也在60%到左右。也就是说，美元储备是人民币发行的重要的信用基础，这在很大程度上确保了人民币汇率的稳定。

当然还有一个重要原因就是房地产扩张，使得央行释放出来的相当大一部分流动性被房地产套住了。

所以，贸易战果真打下去，接下来的影响就会涉及到货币金融领域。

美国人非常清楚，如果我们的美元储备大幅度减少，那么人民币发行的信用基础就会出问题。还有一点，就是我们赚取外汇的能力也将受到影响。

The stability of property prices is paramount to the Chinese economy.

Of course, the trade war won't stop the supply of USD to China completely. But it concerns the credibility of RMB internationally, the liquidity problem, housing prices etc; the health of the entire financial system. If shit hits the fan, the damage will definitely be more than 0.02% of GDP. If the damage is so minuscule, Chinese officials wouldn't have come out so frequently to condemn the US of 'bullying'.

 

[Logam42]

snip

Bub, the hell are you talking about? You do realise that "The USA is leaving nations with smaller deficits alone" in no way excludes Indonesia?

Like lets use the data FROM THE SAME WEBSITE YOU QUOTED:

"Below is a list showcasing 15 of Indonesia’s top trading partners, countries that imported the most Indonesian shipments by dollar value during 2017. Also shown is each import country’s percentage of total Indonesian exports.
2. United States: $17.8 billion (10.6%)

http://www.worldstopexports.com/indonesias-top-15-import-partners/

"Overall Indonesia garnered an $11.9 billion trade surplus during 2017, up 34.5% from $8.8 billion in black ink in 2016.

Based on Investopedia’s definition of net importer, a country whose total value of all imported goods is lower than its value of all exports is said to have a positive trade balance or surplus.

1. India: US$10 billion (country-specific trade surplus in 2017)
2. United States: $9.7 billion

So... lets do some grade school maths shall we?

If our exports to USA is 17.8 Billion, and our surplus is 9.7 Billion, then our imports are 17.8 - 9.7 = 8.1 Billion, which means that we export nearly 2x than we import.

In case you haven't noticed, Indonesia is the largest economy in South-East Asia, and the 16th largest in the world... Yeah we aren't China, but we do 'matter'.

I see you've found ONE article where a minister states that we aren't going to be a target of a trade war.

Let me show you my sources:
https://www.indonesia-investments.c...lso-eyes-tariffs-on-indonesian-goods/item8881
Trade War Kicks Off, Trump also Eyes Tariffs on Indonesian Goods
06 Juli 2018 |

• Trade War
• Enggartiasto Lukita
• Donald Trump
• Protectionism
• Trade

Trade War between Indonesia and USA?

>Meanwhile, Indonesia is also on Trump's radar as he detected a "suspicious" trade deficit in US-Indonesia trade relations. Back in April 2017 Trump had already called for an investigation into the "trade imbalance" between the US and 16 countries, including Indonesia.<

>Therefore, the US is currently studying whether to impose import tariffs on 124 Indonesian products that are shipped to the USA.< It specifically involves goods that are imported under the generalized system of preference (GSP), including plywood and cotton. This program, which was introduced in 1976, aims to support developing countries by reducing import duties and taxes. Normally, the program is extended each year. This time, however, the US said it is reviewing the goods' tariffs.

Non-GSP products that are being reviewed by the US government include textiles, agricultural products, shrimp, and crab.

Based on data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the US is among Indonesia's top three export destinations (in the non-oil & gas segment). In the first four months of 2018, non-oil & gas exports that were shipped to the USA reached USD $5.85 billion (up 3.6 percent on a year-on-year basis), and accounting for 10.9 percent of Indonesia's total (non-oil & gas) exports in the January-April 2018 period...

...Shinta Widjaja Kamdani, Chairman of International Relations and Investment at the Indonesian Employers Association (Apindo), said domestic industries are concerned about the possible implementation of import tariffs on 124 Indonesian goods. Kamdani said she hopes that the Indonesian government can organize a successful lobby and reassure the US government that the goods that are exported under the GSP are not the cause of the US trade deficit.

>Indonesian Trade Minister Enggartiasto Lukita stated that Indonesia would be ready to prepare a retaliatory move provided the USA indeed imposes import tariffs on 124 Indonesian products.< However, before that time arrives, Lukita supports a soft approach to prevent the breakout of a trade war between both countries.

_____________________

Not enough? How about this? AN ARTICLE PUBLISHED BY SINGAPORE'S STRAITS TIMES
https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/s...eeks-to-reduce-deficits-with-trading-partners

Indonesia under US trade radar as Trump seeks to reduce deficits with trading partners

JUL 7, 2018, 11:03 AM SGT

JAKARTA (ASIA NEWS NETWORK) - >Indonesia may no longer be able to remain a spectator of the ever-escalating global trade war with the country now on the radar of the United States government, which under the administration of President Donald Trump is seeking to reduce its deficits with its trade partners.<

The Indonesian government has been anticipating the domino effect that could result from a trade war between the US and China, which finally began this week.

However, the government may have been cautious about entering into a trade spat with the US as it was revealed recently that Mr Trump in April pointed to Indonesia as having a trade surplus with the US.

>The Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR) announced in April it would launch a review into Indonesia's Generalised System of Preferences (GSP), a program that offers exemptions from trade barriers, along with the trade policies of India and Kazakhstan.<

"Indonesia has implemented a wide array of trade and investment barriers that create serious negative effects on US commerce," the USTR wrote in a statement posted on its website.

The USTR pointed out that the review would be based on concerns related to Indonesia's GSP criteria for market access, services and investment.

Commenting on the matter, President Joko Widodo said on the sidelines of the Indonesia Livestock Expo in Jakarta on Friday (July 6) that he would hold a meeting on Monday (July 9) to discuss the possibilities of a trade war.

Separately, Foreign Minister Retno L.P. Marsudi said that while Indonesia had a trade surplus with the US, other factors needed to be taken into account, such as services and investment.

"If we include them (services and investment), we want it to be a win-win," she said on the sidelines of a Joint Commission Meeting with her Thai counterpart in Yogyakarta on Friday.
Ms Retno, however, expressed skepticism about the possibility of a trade war with the US, stressing that relations between both countries remained warm.

"As of my latest meeting with the US secretary of state in Washington on June 6, they are still committed to implementing strategic partnerships between Indonesia and the US," she said.

According to US Census Bureau data, US apparel and accessories imports from Indonesia reached US$4.69 billion in 2016, 4.91 per cent lower year-on-year than the US$4.94 billion recorded in 2015. The category is the top Indonesian export to the US...

>...Trade Minister Enggartiasto Lukita said on Thursday that Indonesia would prepare a retaliatory policy if the US moved forward with its plan to impose tariffs on 124 products imported from Indonesia, saying that the country's ambassador to the US "had pursued a [SOFT]approach".<

"I have communicated with the US because, basically, we do not want a trade war as it will cause losses for all parties. We'd prefer collaboration," Enggartiasto said as quoted by kompas.com, adding that retaliation was still possible should the US pressure continue and that it could resemble that occurring between the US and China. When contacted by The Jakarta

Post on Friday, the Trade Ministry's International Trade Negotiations Director General Iman Pambagyo declined to comment on the matter given the "sketchy information" coming from the US.

Meanwhile, Shinta Kamdani, the Indonesian Employers Association's (Apindo) head of international relations and investment, said on Thursday that local businesspeople were aware that hundreds of commodities were currently under the US GSP review, including cotton, plywood and agricultural products.

Shinta said that, in the coming months, Indonesia's trade representatives would attend hearings in the US that would be witnessed by supporting and opposing panels, adding that the soonest would take place later this July.

>"We will lose our key [to having a trade surplus] if we have to cease our GSPs because we will face higher tariffs," she said.<
_______________________

Yes, Indonesia doesn't WANT to be in a trade war, but Trump isn't giving us an option either. As stated by our Vice-President:
_______________________
https://en.tempo.co/read/news/2018/...to-Retaliate-if-Donald-Trump-Starts-Trade-War

I won't bore you with the actual article, but I think its painfully evident how real the threat of trade war is when even the vice president makes a speech on it.

Look, I get it, you're ignorant, and from your comments its painfully obvious that you don't understand the fundamentals of trade.

Yes, America is only the second largest export destination for Indonesia and is only the second largest trade surplus partner.

You realise thats still significant don't you?

I'm reading your comments with a sense of "WTF? So just because America is number two somehow it doesn't matter anymore?" Would you say that Russia's military doesn't matter just because it's the second largest? What type of non-sensical logic is that???

And shit, I don't need to argue with you. Just read the Straits Time article! Or you know, maaaaayyybeee we do have delusions of grandeur, thank God Trump agrees with us!

>Meanwhile, Indonesia is also on Trump's radar as he detected a "suspicious" trade deficit in US-Indonesia trade relations. Back in April 2017 Trump had already called for an investigation into the "trade imbalance" between the US and 16 countries, including Indonesia.<

Indonesia doesn't believe we have a 'hostile' trade relationship with America, we have a trade surplus. The one who believes that is Donald Trump, and he's already treating us in a hostile manner. When one side is hostile, then yes, THE TRADE RELATION BECOMES HOSTILE. This isn't about feelings of grandeur, its about being aware of the facts.

TL;DR:
Indonesia: We have a trade surplus with America
Trump: That means you have a hostile trade relationship with us!
Indonesia: What?! Can't we talk this out! It's just a trade surplus!
Trump: I'm gonna rape you with trade tarrifs!
Indonesia: ... Well shit, guess we're in a trade war then.
YOU: Stop having delusions of grandeur! Your nation doesn't matter and its just a trade surplus!
Indonesia: ...

 

[ohmrlobalobayeh]

Bub, the hell are you talking about? You do realise that "The USA is leaving nations with smaller deficits alone" in no way excludes Indonesia?

Like lets use the data FROM THE SAME WEBSITE YOU QUOTED:


http://www.worldstopexports.com/indonesias-top-15-import-partners/

"Overall Indonesia garnered an $11.9 billion trade surplus during 2017, up 34.5% from $8.8 billion in black ink in 2016.

Based on Investopedia’s definition of net importer, a country whose total value of all imported goods is lower than its value of all exports is said to have a positive trade balance or surplus.

1. India: US$10 billion (country-specific trade surplus in 2017)
2. United States: $9.7 billion

So... lets do some grade school maths shall we?

If our exports to USA is 17.8 Billion, and our surplus is 9.7 Billion, then our imports are 17.8 - 9.7 = 8.1 Billion, which means that we export nearly 2x than we import.

In case you haven't noticed, Indonesia is the largest economy in South-East Asia, and the 16th largest in the world... Yeah we aren't China, but we do 'matter'.

I see you've found ONE article where a minister states that we aren't going to be a target of a trade war.

Let me show you my sources:
https://www.indonesia-investments.c...lso-eyes-tariffs-on-indonesian-goods/item8881
Trade War Kicks Off, Trump also Eyes Tariffs on Indonesian Goods
06 Juli 2018 |

• Trade War
• Enggartiasto Lukita
• Donald Trump
• Protectionism
• Trade

Trade War between Indonesia and USA?

>Meanwhile, Indonesia is also on Trump's radar as he detected a "suspicious" trade deficit in US-Indonesia trade relations. Back in April 2017 Trump had already called for an investigation into the "trade imbalance" between the US and 16 countries, including Indonesia.<

>Therefore, the US is currently studying whether to impose import tariffs on 124 Indonesian products that are shipped to the USA.< It specifically involves goods that are imported under the generalized system of preference (GSP), including plywood and cotton. This program, which was introduced in 1976, aims to support developing countries by reducing import duties and taxes. Normally, the program is extended each year. This time, however, the US said it is reviewing the goods' tariffs.

Non-GSP products that are being reviewed by the US government include textiles, agricultural products, shrimp, and crab.

Based on data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the US is among Indonesia's top three export destinations (in the non-oil & gas segment). In the first four months of 2018, non-oil & gas exports that were shipped to the USA reached USD $5.85 billion (up 3.6 percent on a year-on-year basis), and accounting for 10.9 percent of Indonesia's total (non-oil & gas) exports in the January-April 2018 period...

...Shinta Widjaja Kamdani, Chairman of International Relations and Investment at the Indonesian Employers Association (Apindo), said domestic industries are concerned about the possible implementation of import tariffs on 124 Indonesian goods. Kamdani said she hopes that the Indonesian government can organize a successful lobby and reassure the US government that the goods that are exported under the GSP are not the cause of the US trade deficit.

>Indonesian Trade Minister Enggartiasto Lukita stated that Indonesia would be ready to prepare a retaliatory move provided the USA indeed imposes import tariffs on 124 Indonesian products.< However, before that time arrives, Lukita supports a soft approach to prevent the breakout of a trade war between both countries.

_____________________

Not enough? How about this? AN ARTICLE PUBLISHED BY SINGAPORE'S STRAITS TIMES
https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/s...eeks-to-reduce-deficits-with-trading-partners

Indonesia under US trade radar as Trump seeks to reduce deficits with trading partners

JUL 7, 2018, 11:03 AM SGT

JAKARTA (ASIA NEWS NETWORK) - >Indonesia may no longer be able to remain a spectator of the ever-escalating global trade war with the country now on the radar of the United States government, which under the administration of President Donald Trump is seeking to reduce its deficits with its trade partners.<

The Indonesian government has been anticipating the domino effect that could result from a trade war between the US and China, which finally began this week.

However, the government may have been cautious about entering into a trade spat with the US as it was revealed recently that Mr Trump in April pointed to Indonesia as having a trade surplus with the US.

>The Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR) announced in April it would launch a review into Indonesia's Generalised System of Preferences (GSP), a program that offers exemptions from trade barriers, along with the trade policies of India and Kazakhstan.<

"Indonesia has implemented a wide array of trade and investment barriers that create serious negative effects on US commerce," the USTR wrote in a statement posted on its website.

The USTR pointed out that the review would be based on concerns related to Indonesia's GSP criteria for market access, services and investment.

Commenting on the matter, President Joko Widodo said on the sidelines of the Indonesia Livestock Expo in Jakarta on Friday (July 6) that he would hold a meeting on Monday (July 9) to discuss the possibilities of a trade war.

Separately, Foreign Minister Retno L.P. Marsudi said that while Indonesia had a trade surplus with the US, other factors needed to be taken into account, such as services and investment.

"If we include them (services and investment), we want it to be a win-win," she said on the sidelines of a Joint Commission Meeting with her Thai counterpart in Yogyakarta on Friday.
Ms Retno, however, expressed skepticism about the possibility of a trade war with the US, stressing that relations between both countries remained warm.

"As of my latest meeting with the US secretary of state in Washington on June 6, they are still committed to implementing strategic partnerships between Indonesia and the US," she said.

According to US Census Bureau data, US apparel and accessories imports from Indonesia reached US$4.69 billion in 2016, 4.91 per cent lower year-on-year than the US$4.94 billion recorded in 2015. The category is the top Indonesian export to the US...

>...Trade Minister Enggartiasto Lukita said on Thursday that Indonesia would prepare a retaliatory policy if the US moved forward with its plan to impose tariffs on 124 products imported from Indonesia, saying that the country's ambassador to the US "had pursued a [SOFT]approach".<

"I have communicated with the US because, basically, we do not want a trade war as it will cause losses for all parties. We'd prefer collaboration," Enggartiasto said as quoted by kompas.com, adding that retaliation was still possible should the US pressure continue and that it could resemble that occurring between the US and China. When contacted by The Jakarta

Post on Friday, the Trade Ministry's International Trade Negotiations Director General Iman Pambagyo declined to comment on the matter given the "sketchy information" coming from the US.

Meanwhile, Shinta Kamdani, the Indonesian Employers Association's (Apindo) head of international relations and investment, said on Thursday that local businesspeople were aware that hundreds of commodities were currently under the US GSP review, including cotton, plywood and agricultural products.

Shinta said that, in the coming months, Indonesia's trade representatives would attend hearings in the US that would be witnessed by supporting and opposing panels, adding that the soonest would take place later this July.

>"We will lose our key [to having a trade surplus] if we have to cease our GSPs because we will face higher tariffs," she said.<
_______________________

Yes, Indonesia doesn't WANT to be in a trade war, but Trump isn't giving us an option either. As stated by our Vice-President:
_______________________
https://en.tempo.co/read/news/2018/...to-Retaliate-if-Donald-Trump-Starts-Trade-War

I won't bore you with the actual article, but I think its painfully evident how real the threat of trade war is when even the vice president makes a speech on it.

Look, I get it, you're ignorant, and from your comments its painfully obvious that you don't understand the fundamentals of trade.

Yes, America is only the second largest export destination for Indonesia and is only the second largest trade surplus partner.

You realise thats still significant don't you?

I'm reading your comments with a sense of "WTF? So just because America is number two somehow it doesn't matter anymore?" Would you say that Russia's military doesn't matter just because it's the second largest? What type of non-sensical logic is that???

And shit, I don't need to argue with you. Just read the Straits Time article! Or you know, maaaaayyybeee we do have delusions of grandeur, thank God Trump agrees with us!



Indonesia doesn't believe we have a 'hostile' trade relationship with America, we have a trade surplus. The one who believes that is Donald Trump, and he's already treating us in a hostile manner. When one side is hostile, then yes, THE TRADE RELATION BECOMES HOSTILE. This isn't about feelings of grandeur, its about being aware of the facts.

TL;DR:
Indonesia: We have a trade surplus with America
Trump: That means you have a hostile trade relationship with us!
Indonesia: What?! Can't we talk this out! It's just a trade surplus!
Trump: I'm gonna rape you with trade tarrifs!
Indonesia: ... Well shit, guess we're in a trade war then.
YOU: Stop having delusions of grandeur! Your nation doesn't matter and its just a trade surplus!
Indonesia: ...

I'm having difficulty reading your gigantic text wall from start to end on my mobile.

I did however managed to catch hold of the start n the memes.

I stand by my statement n that is Indonesia's 10+ billion trade deficit is insignificant compared to China's 375billion.

U wanna talk about math? How hard is it to see the difference between 10billion n 375billion?

Haha thanks.

The US is the we worlds largest consumer nation n almost every nation on Earth has a trade surplus with her. Indonesia, just like the rest of the world- belongs to the norm. U conveniently chose to ignore this fact. U pretend to think Indonesia is 'special' that it commands a trade surplus with the US.

U think too highly of your own country that for a population of 261million, generates only a meagre n substandard 1.01trillion gdp economy n even then, it is largely through exploitation of natural resources n maids( = lol) and yet even then, those resources r being controlled by Western n Chinese mncs like Dutch Shell n Chinese Sinopec.

Just like other 3rd world nation's, the only speciality that indonesian natives r capable of- are producing more n more babies.

Also, for the indonesian ministers statement, i quoted bloomberg. How credible that is is up to everyone's judgement.

Im lazy to read the rest. I had to scroll half the length of the page to see your post's end. If U want, summarize each different section of your super long-winded rant separately into organized posts.

 

[Jlaw]

The stability of property prices is paramount to the Chinese economy.

Not according to economist Yukon Huang. New delhi has higher average property price than Shanghai with 5x the smaller economy. If anything the bubble burst will happen in India.

 

[Logam42]

I'm having difficulty reading your gigantic text wall from start to end on my mobile.

I did however managed to catch hold of the start n the memes.

I stand by my statement n that is Indonesia's 10+ billion trade deficit is insignificant compared to China's 375billion.

U wanna talk about math? How hard is it to see the difference between 10billion n 375billion?

Haha thanks.

The US is the we worlds largest consumer nation n almost every nation on Earth has a trade surplus with her. Indonesia, just like the rest of the world- belongs to the norm. U conveniently chose to ignore this fact. U pretend to think Indonesia is 'special' that it commands a trade surplus with the US.

U think too highly of your own country that for a population of 261million, generates only a meagre n substandard 1.01trillion gdp economy n even then, it is largely through exploitation of natural resources n maids( = lol) and yet even then, those resources r being controlled by Western n Chinese mncs like Dutch BP n Chinese Sinopec.

Just like other 3rd world nation's, the only speciality that indonesian natives r capable of- are producing more n more babies.

Also, for the indonesian ministers statement, i quoted bloomberg. How credible that is is up to everyone's judgement.

Im lazy to read the rest. I had to scroll half the length of the page to see your post's end. If U want, summarize each different section of your super long-winded rant separately into organized posts.

Not gonna do your job for you. If you want to leave it at that and pretend that you're lazy, then please be my guest

I do want to leave a closing statement:

>Meanwhile, Indonesia is also on Trump's radar as he detected a "suspicious" trade deficit in US-Indonesia trade relations. Back in April 2017 Trump had already called for an investigation into the "trade imbalance" between the US and 16 countries, including Indonesia.<

Its hard to argue that you're insignificant to the US gov when even the US gov admits it

 

[Mista]

Not according to economist Yukon Huang. New delhi has higher average property price than Shanghai with 5x the smaller economy. If anything the bubble burst will happen in India.

What has my post got to do with India?

 

[ohmrlobalobayeh]

Not gonna do your job for you. If you want to leave it at that and pretend that you're lazy, then please be my guest

I do want to leave a closing statement:




Its hard to argue that you're insignificant to the US gov when even the US gov admits it

What s there to pretend? My job doesn't involve digesting ur massive textwall of rant.

In fact, ur fiery verbosity in composing such a super long post like post #68 only serves to prove that i struck a sore spot n demonstrate your defensiveness n resulting desperation to convince people here.

Ur very first post insinuatinuated China 'needs' indonesia to stand up to the US n China will defintely lose' in this trade conflict withouther(Indonesia). All my responses were directed at that f**king funny statement. Your backwards country aren't even a major player in trade, yet u talk of Indonesia as one.

Continue being delusional. Indonesia may have 261million people, but she is a kitten in terms of global trade n economy- not a lion that you paint her out to be. Your closest cousin would be Nigeria- so much people but all are unproductive citizens n being exploited by others.

With an abyssmal manufactured goods industry(list anything that is 'Made in Indonesia', except keretek cigarettes),her only asset is an abudance of natural resources such as palm oil, crude oil, natural latex and natural gasses that are being controlled n exploited by foreign mncs- just like how Africa n the Middle east are.

U guys are lazy n only care about making babies all day long. Indonesia a major trading power?

In ASEAN = yes, by virtue of population n natural resources.

In the league that East Asia, North America and the EU are? Hahahaha gimme a break

Thanks.





PS* I forgot to add in tin as an abundant natural resource that indonesia exports. Not to mention Royal Dutch Shell, the world's largest crude oil conglomerate- started in North Sumatra in the Dutch East Indies that is today's Indonesia. How do i know? It's all in our school history textbooks about our neighbours history.

 

[Jlaw]

What has my post got to do with India?

You mentioned a China bubble burst and I used the higher ND price as a reference.

 

[Mista]

You mentioned a China bubble burst and I used the higher ND price as a reference.

I talked about excessive liquidity and the potential risk the trade war entails because of the high dependence of RMB's stability on the USD, since you mentioned that only 0.02% of GDP will get affected.

I'm not sure whether ND is more expensive than SH (all figures I just Googled show otherwise) or whether high property prices are common across Indian cities, but India is your benchmark?