As trade war looms, the US looks confident. China, not so much

[rott]

I think it is more because there is no fear of starvation or not having a roof over your head. Paying that $500 is just an inconvenience.

The original article said most people would simply eat out less at restaurants for a bit to make up for the quick shortfall. It didn’t mean people have no money.

No, not really. It's simply a white man's culture. It doesn't happen only in the US. It's just in their blood to live today and forget about tomorrow.

Enjoy your honeymoon

Haha... Always have enjoyed your short but sweet replies.

Zhou Enlai admit PLA is very stupid. Current CN officers admit US's sanction could trigger chaos. SO, I wont waste time wt some dish washer in some cheap-dirty CNese restaurant here.

I will put a dish washer like u on my ignore list till 2023, CN officers admit US's sanction could trigger chaos already. SO, nothign else to talk wt low life guy like u

----------------
China reportedly aims to tackle 'uncertainties' in employment with incentives to boost job creation

• China will offer incentives aimed at encouraging firms to create and maintain jobs as it tries to head off "uncertainties" in employment, the official China Daily said on Thursday.

@Kiss_of_the_Dragon, he called you a dish washer.
Go kick his ***.

 

[hoangsa74]

I guess the american gravy train has shut its door to the chinese.
The response of the normal chinese suspects here is interesting with hardly a squeak.
Bet they have been ordered to not rock the boat by their employers.

before this trade war, these slanty ingrates were so confident that America wouldn't do something like this. they believe that America's major corporations need their consumer market; hence America will sacrifice the entire American businesses for the sake of a few American's major corporations to have access to their market. what does America get in return for her good grace of giving these slanty ingrates hundred of billion of trade surplus a year in the past 20-plus year? nothing but the middle finger and backstabbing effort to dethrone America as the world leader. loyalty and gratefulness do not exist in their culture. now America is taking that 400 billion of trade surplus and give it to other loyal and worthy allies instead.

their employers are still picking their noses trying to find another market that can replace America's $400 billion a year of trade surplus. when their employers can't find a market to sell their products, these proud china man will be out of work and their spouse will leave them in a heart beat LOL

 

[Viva_Viet]

Vietnam should increase patrolling on its borders to prevent any chinese economic refugees from sneaking in.

They r welcome if paying 1million USD

 

[Broccoli]

nothing but the middle finger and backstabbing effort to dethrone America as the world leader.

I'd say your voters are doing that not anyone else.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

No, not really. It's simply a white man's culture. It doesn't happen only in the US. It's just in their blood to live today and forget about tomorrow.

No, I think the “no fear” is the problem. People definitely spend money on frivolous things. People get the $400/month cable tv with every premium channel, $200 sneakers, $100K+ on nice his & her cars, $15K+ on diamond wedding rings, $10K+ season tickets to their favorite sports team, etc.

All the while knowing when they retire the government is going to pay them maybe $1500+ month to sit on their butts (plus their retirement disbursement). If they lose their job the government will again pay up to $3000/mo for at least a year to them to sit on their butts. So there isn’t a fear of a “dire” situation occurring (other than medical...certainly not a fear of starvation). As for a sudden $500 expense they either cut down on some frivolous expense to pay it or far more likely just pay it off in installments (median household credit card debt is $2300) since they don’t want to change their status quo. When people plan that elaborate $8000+ trip to Disney World they basically do the same thing.

 

[LeGenD]

Trump Just Announced Tariffs on $200 Billion More Chinese Goods.

http://fortune.com/2018/07/11/trump-china-trade-war-200b/
https://www.theguardian.com/busines...ina-trade-war-200bn-new-tariffs-business-live

---

Trade war escalation rattles China stocks and currency

China’s stock market fell and its currency weakened on Wednesday after the Trump administration said it was moving forward with new tariffs on $200bn worth of Chinese imports, shattering the fragile calm that had returned in recent days. The CSI 300 index, which tracks Shanghai- and Shenzhen-traded blue-chips, closed down 1.7 per cent, leading a broad retreat in the Asia Pacific region. The renminbi was 0.4 per cent softer against the US dollar after dipping to its weakest intraday level since July 3. European stocks made narrower overall losses in morning trade, although those more exposed to China’s economy and the trade dispute led the declines. The Europe-wide Stoxx 600 fell 1.2 per cent. The index tracking miners, who rely on China’s economy to generate demand for much of their output, lost 3.7 per cent. The equivalent benchmark for industrial metals makers fell almost 3 per cent. Futures trade pointed to losses at the US open, signalling an opening decline of about 0.8 per cent for the S&P 500 and 1 per cent for the Nasdaq Composite. The escalating trade war is adding to downward pressure on China’s economy from a slowdown in infrastructure investment and reduced subsidies for the property market.

“When US actions surpass expectations, the entire market takes a hit, not just sectors that are specifically affected,” said Chen Yunyang, macroeconomic analyst at New Times Securities in Shanghai. For the renminbi, bearish sentiment is linked more directly to the trade war impact. Market participants are worried that tariffs or a negotiated settlement will erode China’s current account surplus, which has already narrowed in recent years. After suffering its worst month in June and extending its decline in early July, the renminbi had traded in a narrow range for the past four sessions amid signs that the central bank was intervening modestly to support the Chinese currency. Central bank governor Yi Gang and party secretary Guo Shuqing have both publicly stated that the renminbi is unlikely to slide significantly. The People’s Bank of China has also set its daily exchange-rate fixings somewhat stronger in recent days than the level implied by the central bank’s stated formula — a signal that the central bank is discouraging major depreciation.

But guidance from the sidelines has its limits and market participants are pondering how aggressively the PBoC can support the renminbi with direct dollar sales. Authorities spent nearly $1tn in reserves to resist a previous wave of depreciation in 2015-16 but room to manoeuvre is more limited now, given what analysts widely believe is the government’s desire to hold forex reserves above the $3tn barrier. Reserves were basically flat in June at $3.1tn, data showed on Saturday. Similarly, most investors believe that the government does not wish to repeat large-scale intervention in the stock market by the so-called “national team” of state investors that authorities deployed to arrest the market rout in summer 2015. “The central bank wants to send a message of support, but if they act too aggressively at this stage, it will send a signal that they are quite worried,” said one foreign exchange trader at a Chinese bank in Shanghai.

Source: https://www.ft.com/content/4c52b9ae-84d0-11e8-96dd-fa565ec55929

---

Holy cow.

 

[Nanga Tarzan]

I guess the american gravy train has shut its door to the chinese.
The response of the normal chinese suspects here is interesting with hardly a squeak.
Bet they have been ordered to not rock the boat by their employers.

There are hardly any real Chinese here. Most all Pakistanis posing as Chinese.

 

[saltyashell]

There are hardly any real Chinese here. Most all Pakistanis posing as Chinese.

I assure you Chinese in real life can be some of the most rude arrogant sobs you will ever meet.
Their behaviour in airports and shops has to be seen to be believed.
Had the misfortune to travel in a long distance flight with them , and they left the plane looking like a pig sty.

And totally crooked in their business dealings.

 

[ohmrlobalobayeh]

SCMP is a fake news media.

why do u say so?? it's owned by alibaba.

Just becos this single writer is having pessimistic views about his own country, does not mean the newspaper itself is not credible.

I read about columnist airing about his/her negatives views of Singapore in my local newspaper all the time.

To have a diversity of views is a good thing, otherwise, scmp becomes another Global times tabloid.

I assure you Chinese in real life can be some of the most rude arrogant sobs you will ever meet.
Their behaviour in airports and shops has to be seen to be believed.
Had the misfortune to travel in a long distance flight with them , and they left the plane looking like a pig sty.

And totally crooked in their business dealings.

ya i agree with u.

hence, trump hates the Chinese, business-wise. He thought he was already crooked enough with his own business acuity, yet the chinese are even crooker than him

there's a Chinese proverb:

There's always a taller mountain behind the mountain(tall)

 

[Logam42]

Really if the trade war happens between China and America, America would smash China. Simply said 4% of China's GDP is directly related to results of exports to America, while only 1% of American GDP is dependent on Chinese exports. America would 'win' easily if it was only China vs America.

But it isn't.

This is turning into America vs. The World.

China, EU, Indonesia, and any other country with a large trade surplus is being targeted. Trump is betting that he could bully most of us into accepting 'better terms' than risk an all out trade war but I very much doubt that any nation would be willing to simply accept being sucker punched in such an arrogant manner.

 

[Jlaw]

Really if the trade war happens between China and America, America would smash China. Simply said 4% of China's GDP is directly related to results of exports to America, while only 1% of American GDP is dependent on Chinese exports. America would 'win' easily if it was only China vs America.

But it isn't.

This is turning into America vs. The World.

China, EU, Indonesia, and any other country with a large trade surplus is being targeted. Trump is betting that he could bully most of us into accepting 'better terms' than risk an all out trade war but I very much doubt that any nation would be willing to simply accept being sucker punched in such an arrogant manner.

No. It would only reflect .02 growth of Chinese GDP if Murica put$500b tariffs on Chinese goods

 

[ohmrlobalobayeh]

Really if the trade war happens between China and America, America would smash China. Simply said 4% of China's GDP is directly related to results of exports to America, while only 1% of American GDP is dependent on Chinese exports. America would 'win' easily if it was only China vs America.

But it isn't.

This is turning into America vs. The World.

China, EU, Indonesia, and any other country with a large trade surplus is being targeted. Trump is betting that he could bully most of us into accepting 'better terms' than risk an all out trade war but I very much doubt that any nation would be willing to simply accept being sucker punched in such an arrogant manner.

is 13.35 billion 'large' compared to china's more than 375billion?
https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-china-trade-deficit-causes-effects-and-solutions-3306277

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/indonesia-unveils-plans-to-mitigate-impact-of-trade-war

Mr Airlangga said he did not foresee any imminent trade tension with Washington, as South-east Asia's largest economy ranks quite low in the list of countries with which the United States has a trade deficit.

The trade deficit with Indonesia dates back to at least 1985, according to US data. In the first five months this year, the US booked US$5.75 billion in deficits, compared with US$13.35 billion for the whole of last year.

Really if the trade war happens between China and America, America would smash China. Simply said 4% of China's GDP is directly related to results of exports to America, while only 1% of American GDP is dependent on Chinese exports.

and from where did u get these statistics from?

 

[nang2]

Trump Just Announced Tariffs on $200 Billion More Chinese Goods.

http://fortune.com/2018/07/11/trump-china-trade-war-200b/
https://www.theguardian.com/busines...ina-trade-war-200bn-new-tariffs-business-live

---

Trade war escalation rattles China stocks and currency

China’s stock market fell and its currency weakened on Wednesday after the Trump administration said it was moving forward with new tariffs on $200bn worth of Chinese imports, shattering the fragile calm that had returned in recent days. The CSI 300 index, which tracks Shanghai- and Shenzhen-traded blue-chips, closed down 1.7 per cent, leading a broad retreat in the Asia Pacific region. The renminbi was 0.4 per cent softer against the US dollar after dipping to its weakest intraday level since July 3. European stocks made narrower overall losses in morning trade, although those more exposed to China’s economy and the trade dispute led the declines. The Europe-wide Stoxx 600 fell 1.2 per cent. The index tracking miners, who rely on China’s economy to generate demand for much of their output, lost 3.7 per cent. The equivalent benchmark for industrial metals makers fell almost 3 per cent. Futures trade pointed to losses at the US open, signalling an opening decline of about 0.8 per cent for the S&P 500 and 1 per cent for the Nasdaq Composite. The escalating trade war is adding to downward pressure on China’s economy from a slowdown in infrastructure investment and reduced subsidies for the property market.

“When US actions surpass expectations, the entire market takes a hit, not just sectors that are specifically affected,” said Chen Yunyang, macroeconomic analyst at New Times Securities in Shanghai. For the renminbi, bearish sentiment is linked more directly to the trade war impact. Market participants are worried that tariffs or a negotiated settlement will erode China’s current account surplus, which has already narrowed in recent years. After suffering its worst month in June and extending its decline in early July, the renminbi had traded in a narrow range for the past four sessions amid signs that the central bank was intervening modestly to support the Chinese currency. Central bank governor Yi Gang and party secretary Guo Shuqing have both publicly stated that the renminbi is unlikely to slide significantly. The People’s Bank of China has also set its daily exchange-rate fixings somewhat stronger in recent days than the level implied by the central bank’s stated formula — a signal that the central bank is discouraging major depreciation.

But guidance from the sidelines has its limits and market participants are pondering how aggressively the PBoC can support the renminbi with direct dollar sales. Authorities spent nearly $1tn in reserves to resist a previous wave of depreciation in 2015-16 but room to manoeuvre is more limited now, given what analysts widely believe is the government’s desire to hold forex reserves above the $3tn barrier. Reserves were basically flat in June at $3.1tn, data showed on Saturday. Similarly, most investors believe that the government does not wish to repeat large-scale intervention in the stock market by the so-called “national team” of state investors that authorities deployed to arrest the market rout in summer 2015. “The central bank wants to send a message of support, but if they act too aggressively at this stage, it will send a signal that they are quite worried,” said one foreign exchange trader at a Chinese bank in Shanghai.

Source: https://www.ft.com/content/4c52b9ae-84d0-11e8-96dd-fa565ec55929

---

Holy cow.

That is where Trump draws his power in the trade war. Chinese government, due to its socialistic nature, like to overrun the market and dictate its own course. It floods the market with money supply to boost the economy, which often just helps some sectors by sacrificing others. The extra money supply creates inflation pressure but currency must not be depreciated because the leader has his grand project in progress that demands stable currency valuation (nobody likes to join the one-belt-one-road if Renminbi is going downhill). Now, we have a conflict between market force and political agenda. In China, it is always the political agenda that wins, which leads to much tougher capital outflow restrictions. But market cannot be ignored completely so the government is treading the water carefully and trying not to lose the balance. What Trump is doing is to create sufficient disturbance in Chinese economy to tip that balance off.

 

[saltyashell]

No. It would only reflect .02 growth of Chinese GDP if Muric put$500b tariffs on Chinese goods

You know it's ok to accept that the american actions will strongly impact the Chinese economy.
Their is no loss of face here , it's just business and politics.
Instead of being in denial , the discussion can be on the options with China.
1. Retaliate - but as in the link , since total export to China is only 170 b USD from USA , as compared to 500 from China to USA , the effect will be much less.
2. Negotiate - accept that some of the american demands are genuine like restricted access to Chinese mkt. Open up your mkt , do away with tech transfer conditions .
3. Do nothing. Does a 10 % duty on Chinese goods really make them non competitive ?
4. Fight the duties in WTO.

 

[Logam42]

is 13.35 billion 'large' compared to china's more than 375billion?
https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-china-trade-deficit-causes-effects-and-solutions-3306277

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/indonesia-unveils-plans-to-mitigate-impact-of-trade-war

Mr Airlangga said he did not foresee any imminent trade tension with Washington, as South-east Asia's largest economy ranks quite low in the list of countries with which the United States has a trade deficit.

The trade deficit with Indonesia dates back to at least 1985, according to US data. In the first five months this year, the US booked US$5.75 billion in deficits, compared with US$13.35 billion for the whole of last year.



and from where did u get these statistics from?

Look at the ratios.

While China is larger (way larger), Indonesia still has a surplus 2x larger than its imports (so we export 3x times more than import). China has a surplus 3x larger than its imports.

Both, according to Trump are 'abnormally high trade surplus'.

21% of China's GDP is based on exports. And 20% of its trade is with America. 0.21 x 0.2 = 0.042 X100% =4.2%

11% of America GDP is based on exports. Roughly 10% of its trade is with China. 0.11 x 0.1 = 1.1%