As the US stokes geopolitical flames with Pelosi’s Taiwan visit, China must be the bigger person

[GreatHanWarrior]

I think this is a good strategy. Everyday fly PLA jets over Taiwanese airspace, even above the parliament building in Taipei. It will put the ball in American's court. They have to choose between shooting down Chinese jets or doing nothing. If they shoot then China gets the license to bomb their airbases, naval bases, army bases, radars etc. If they don't do anything then they will have paid a very heavy price for a nonsense thing like Pelosi's visit.



Yes but should not send J-20. Send low grade fighters. If they shoot down then they won't get access to the latest tech China got. If China sends J-20, the US will be far more willing to shoot it down to inspect the technology in it.

All valid points, but miss the core of the argument.

1. China isn't the only provider of these elements, their shortage would cause short term problems for western markets but long term damage to Chinese exporters

2. You really think patents and copyright are strong enough not to be circumvented by minor modifications or for a determined nation to outright forego such laws in the name of national interests? Global law is only as powerful as those enforcing it.
Good luck trying to legalese the US into submission.

3. What good are all the goods produced by China if there is no one with similar buying capacity as western markets.

When China uses force to recover Taiwan. Will the US "protect" Taiwan?

 

[Beast]

US politics. Remember President Biden’s statement of May 23, 2022. In which he said yes to the question “Are you willing to get militarily involved to defend Taiwan?” If he didn’t act he would lose face, his party and America would face.

Both US parties will pressure the President to aid Taiwan to better defend itself, preferably without putting many US boots in the ground, once a proven taking of the Kinmen, Matsu and Wuqiu Islands have been shown.

For China to take these islands will be to challenge America’s assurance to Taiwan and allies in the Indo-Pacific that America will come to their defense.

This being a midterm election year, neither party can afford to look to voters as being soft on China



That’s the part China really needs to work on if it hopes to make its actions carry its full weight. China should be looking to not think of its partner nations as primarily markets for itse products but economies that can grow to be large enough to be able to absorb more Chinese exports and offset to a significant degree potential western sanctions. That’s what should be a major goal of BRI, similar to the Marshall plan. Helping countries like Sri Lanka, Venezuela and Pakistan fix their economies (and stay fixed) and staying out of the IMF packages will be the best way to have growing markets able to absorb these exports. If China does this across the global south, it could boost interdependence between itself and dozens of partner nations. It would also be more profitable then a lot of the investment in real estate in China.

The american already loses enough face when they failed to respond to Iran direct missile attack on US bases in Iraq. What makes another round losing to China matter?

 

[Krptonite]

1, We are almost the only supplier of rare earth and tungsten carbide, especially heavy rare earth.

2, If our navy is stronger than the USA, we can protect our routes and protect our interests overseas. It is only a matter of time before our navy surpasses the USA. I think you can live to see this day.

3, You still don't realize the impact of China's nationalization of all factories on the West. First, all Western currencies will become waste paper, currencies that cannot buy goods will not be accepted by any country. Secondly, the remaining factories in the West will soon be shut down and scrapped due to the fracture of the industrial chain. Third, China will provide essential goods and investment to countries in the non US camp, trade with CNY, re establish markets in these countries. China can also expand domestic demand. Don't forget that China has 1.4 billion people.

4, Without factories, there would be no goods. The lack of commodity support means the complete collapse of the western monetary system and the most vicious inflation.
You can use dollars to rebuild the industrial chain from scratch. But at that time, I'm afraid no country will accept the dollar. Because you can't provide any goods for these dollars.
You can imagine that Tesla's automobile factory, Apple's factory, patents and factories of various chips have suddenly become the property of Chinese state-owned enterprises overnight. Even some factories left in the West will stop production because of the rupture of the industrial chain. What will happen in the United States? You will be forced to rob necessities with a gun, just as blacks once did.
Without enough materials, American warships and tanks at that time were probably a pile of scrap iron, and even the Iraq war could not be repeated. Of course, it is more likely that the US military is busy quelling civil unrest. China will use necessities to require other resource countries to use RMB for trade settlement.

5, You come from the West and are not as familiar with industrial knowledge as the Chinese, so you really underestimate the difficulty and time of rebuilding the modern industrial system from scratch.
These are consumables for coal and oil mines. If the supply of consumables is stopped, these mines will be shut down within three days. If the work is stopped for more than three months, these machines need to be overhauled and then scrapped<So if China ZCC.CT group (factory 601, which produces 35% of the world's cemented carbide products) imposes sanctions on Russia, Russia will not be able to produce any resources.>.
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The modern industrial system is a result of the gradual upgrading and accumulation of human beings over a thousand years. If the industrial chain breaks, it will be scrapped quickly, but the reconstruction time will take generations.
For example, if you want to make penicillin, a necessity of modern mankind, you first need to be able to make freeze-dried powder. If you want to make lyophilized powder, you first need high voltage current. If you want high voltage current, you first need stainless steel, special steel, rubber and electric welding. Synthetic rubber needs organic chemical industry, which needs ethylene manufacturing and aromatics manufacturing. Welding requires electrical systems, which require capacitor manufacturing and mercury arc rectifiers, which require chlorine manufacturing and aluminum industry. Just one penicillin, you need to develop hundreds of industrial links. It takes only a week for China to get resource countries to abandon the dollar, because Chinese have mastered the necessities of life and production consumables they need. The west can't even make light bulbs in a week, because it needs vacuum pumps, and then vacuum pumps need hundreds of advanced technologies.
Even if Western countries are given a hundred years, they will not be able to rebuild the whole industrial chain from scratch. China is the only country on the blue planet with a complete manufacturing industry.

1. China posseses the largest amount of tungsten reserves no doubt, but it's not the only one. Currently it is the largest exporter but that doesn't translate to the only available exporter. Russia and Vietnam possess significant amounts not to mention Austria and uk have enough for current needs. The point being made is that China benefits from selling these just as the western markets benefit from purchasing them at economical rates. You include coersion into the equation and it incentivises western markets to seek suppliers elsewhere.

2. If any navy has a chance to opposing the US Navy, the Chinese navy would probably be a good bet. Currently The products and supply lines are focused into exporting goods to those who pay good money for them. China recieves foreign capital and buyers recieve products at agreed upon prices, both get what they want. In an adversarial or warlike situation with your main buyers (currently the western market) it would be highly difficult to engage in combat and sell them your products at the same time. It's not even about any other navy attacking your ships or supply lines, what I'm pointing out is that by simply engaging in economic destructive behaviour like high tarifs and banning of buying Chinese products can exert significant pressure on the Chinese economy. The situation would have been mitigated if there were other global powers that could buy from you and offset that disadvantage, but currently the USA buys a lot of goods and services and there is no comparable alternative to sell Chinese products if the US were to go down that route. That gives the US significant leverage. It's not about who's more militarily powerfull but who's purchasing your products in large quantities. The buyer holds an unusual advantage unless you find an alternative like Russia could weather the sanctions due to plenty of oil buyers other than the US.

3.China has significant assets in western markets that would be liable to hostile take over in retaliation. What China would gain in terms of physical factories, it would lose assets and trust overseas. Investors don't enjoy the fact that their investments could be nationalised and taken away, that would be unhealthy for the Chinese economy. The currency scenario you've outlined makes sense if the global trust in dollar decreases significantly and the reverse happens for the Chinese Yuan. So long as there are buyers for the US dollar it would continue to enjoy it's power. It is doubtfull or inconclusive that the act of confiscating foreign assets would lead to the downfall of US dollar. It's more probable that the Chinese Yuan faces stronger pressure as counter sanctions from such actions would leave the GoC without the means to stabalise its own currency. If there is Global demand for the yuan, it could weather those sanctions but currently the Yuan isn't strong enough to face challenges of those nature.

China can sell those goods and products to those in the non us camp but we again come back to the same problem, there is no alternative global power with similar purchasing capacity as the western markets. Those who you wish to sell to can't afford it beyond a certain limit. This also would mean that for healthy trade China would need to buy as much as it sells to those countries, the incompatible nature of such a trade would hinder China's economy more.

4. China is currently the global manufacturing hub, but it isn't the only one. In the short term (10-20 years) any supply disruption would undoubtedly be in China's control but then the effects of such a move means other countries would be willing, able and capable to replace it. In the long run China's market share would drop as it would exhaust available market capacity and unable to penetrate profitable western markets. It would be left with over capacity, your current cement industry is a comparable parable. China benefits as much as the western nations when its products are bought. Any disruption in that causes harm on both sides not just one.

5. I'm an Indian, our industrial capability is dwarfed, outmatched and outcompeted by China's. There is no doubt about the hard work and sheer inguinity that went into making China into the power house it is today but that doesn't translate to the impossibility of a repeat. Ironically it is China that has shown the path to rapid modernisation, with capital, incentivisation and correct policy it can be repeated. Neccessity would see to that. It will not take generations, when China was trail blazing its way to become a powerhouse it had to do so on its own with its own inguinity and it took you four decades to do so. Many others took notice, if necessary it isn't beyond the realm of possibilities that others could do so faster with enhanced help and the way already illuminated by China.

 

[Krptonite]

When China uses force to recover Taiwan. Will the US "protect" Taiwan?

I don't know.

I'm not really privy to what the Pentagon would do in a such a scenario.

Conjecture would say at the very least economic sanctions which would be devestating for the Chinese and global economy or military intervention which would be devestating for all.

 

[GreatHanWarrior]

I don't know.

I'm not really privy to what the Pentagon would do in a such a scenario.

Conjecture would say at the very least economic sanctions which would be devestating for the Chinese and global economy or military intervention which would be devestating for all.

But now (August 4). China is completely blocking Taiwan. And conduct large-scale military exercises. Why did the US aircraft carrier suddenly leave?

 

[SIPRA]

When China uses force to recover Taiwan. Will the US "protect" Taiwan?

I don't think.

 

[Krptonite]

But now (August 4). China is completely blocking Taiwan. And conduct large-scale military exercises. Why did the US aircraft carrier suddenly leave?

You're asking an Indian poster on a Pakistani forum as to why the US naval carrier group moved the way it did.

It was because I decreed it to.

 

[tower9]

Instead of whining about such things and bullying a defenseless baby like Taiwan, why doesn't China just ramp up arms sales to the rivals of said states? They can sell fighter jets and anti-aircraft missiles to Syria for example.

This whole thing is retarded honestly.

 

[GreatHanWarrior]

You're asking an Indian poster on a Pakistani forum as to why the US naval carrier group moved the way it did.

It was because I decreed it to.

So the Indian aircraft carrier is on fire again and this is also your decreed?

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

By the time Nansi Polosie will be eating dinner , China will be conquering the tiny Island

Taiwan is a very very very tiny land area

 

[Krptonite]

So the Indian aircraft carrier is on fire again and this is also your decreed?

Yes to all your queries.



P.s. I highly encourage you to learn about the bestest and latest Indian aircraft carrier the INS sarcasm.

 

[MH.Yang]

1. China posseses the largest amount of tungsten reserves no doubt, but it's not the only one. Currently it is the largest exporter but that doesn't translate to the only available exporter. Russia and Vietnam possess significant amounts not to mention Austria and uk have enough for current needs. The point being made is that China benefits from selling these just as the western markets benefit from purchasing them at economical rates. You include coersion into the equation and it incentivises western markets to seek suppliers elsewhere.

2. If any navy has a chance to opposing the US Navy, the Chinese navy would probably be a good bet. Currently The products and supply lines are focused into exporting goods to those who pay good money for them. China recieves foreign capital and buyers recieve products at agreed upon prices, both get what they want. In an adversarial or warlike situation with your main buyers (currently the western market) it would be highly difficult to engage in combat and sell them your products at the same time. It's not even about any other navy attacking your ships or supply lines, what I'm pointing out is that by simply engaging in economic destructive behaviour like high tarifs and banning of buying Chinese products can exert significant pressure on the Chinese economy. The situation would have been mitigated if there were other global powers that could buy from you and offset that disadvantage, but currently the USA buys a lot of goods and services and there is no comparable alternative to sell Chinese products if the US were to go down that route. That gives the US significant leverage. It's not about who's more militarily powerfull but who's purchasing your products in large quantities. The buyer holds an unusual advantage unless you find an alternative like Russia could weather the sanctions due to plenty of oil buyers other than the US.

3.China has significant assets in western markets that would be liable to hostile take over in retaliation. What China would gain in terms of physical factories, it would lose assets and trust overseas. Investors don't enjoy the fact that their investments could be nationalised and taken away, that would be unhealthy for the Chinese economy. The currency scenario you've outlined makes sense if the global trust in dollar decreases significantly and the reverse happens for the Chinese Yuan. So long as there are buyers for the US dollar it would continue to enjoy it's power. It is doubtfull or inconclusive that the act of confiscating foreign assets would lead to the downfall of US dollar. It's more probable that the Chinese Yuan faces stronger pressure as counter sanctions from such actions would leave the GoC without the means to stabalise its own currency. If there is Global demand for the yuan, it could weather those sanctions but currently the Yuan isn't strong enough to face challenges of those nature.

China can sell those goods and products to those in the non us camp but we again come back to the same problem, there is no alternative global power with similar purchasing capacity as the western markets. Those who you wish to sell to can't afford it beyond a certain limit. This also would mean that for healthy trade China would need to buy as much as it sells to those countries, the incompatible nature of such a trade would hinder China's economy more.

4. China is currently the global manufacturing hub, but it isn't the only one. In the short term (10-20 years) any supply disruption would undoubtedly be in China's control but then the effects of such a move means other countries would be willing, able and capable to replace it. In the long run China's market share would drop as it would exhaust available market capacity and unable to penetrate profitable western markets. It would be left with over capacity, your current cement industry is a comparable parable. China benefits as much as the western nations when its products are bought. Any disruption in that causes harm on both sides not just one.

5. I'm an Indian, our industrial capability is dwarfed, outmatched and outcompeted by China's. There is no doubt about the hard work and sheer inguinity that went into making China into the power house it is today but that doesn't translate to the impossibility of a repeat. Ironically it is China that has shown the path to rapid modernisation, with capital, incentivisation and correct policy it can be repeated. Neccessity would see to that. It will not take generations, when China was trail blazing its way to become a powerhouse it had to do so on its own with its own inguinity and it took you four decades to do so. Many others took notice, if necessary it isn't beyond the realm of possibilities that others could do so faster with enhanced help and the way already illuminated by China.

Move the factory out of China? That's not so easy.

Have you ever wondered why Trump has been unable to transfer manufacturing from China? Why do Chinese people earn six times as much as Indians, but goods made in India are much more expensive than those made in China? Because China is the only country with a complete industrial system.

Even in the last century, China has never been the country with the lowest labor cost. In fact, in addition to low-end labor-intensive industries, labor cost is not the largest commodity cost, and industrial chain and logistics are the biggest commodity costs, that is also the reason why the cost of goods in countries such as India is much higher than that in China. I am engaged in cemented carbide industry, if I want to sell a batch of drill bits, first I need to buy tungsten powder and cobalt powder from other enterprises, then I need other enterprises to help me press it into alloy rods, I also need enterprises to help me do wire cutting, and I also need enterprises to help me weld the alloy head to the steel bar. A total of more than 10 enterprises are required to cooperate together. If I am an Indian, I need to mail products more than ten times around the world and bear the logistics cost and time back and forth, the logistics cost will exceed the cost of the product itself by several times. In China, I can carry out all production links in one city.

China has the largest, most perfect and most reasonably designed industrial chain in the world, and the most advanced and efficient logistics system, that is the most important reason why capital cannot leave China. Sorry, I forgot that there is also the largest market in the world. Any enterprise leaving China will face fierce competition from China, and it will be difficult for such enterprises to survive.

70% of the world's factories gather in China, which is an inevitable result of the industrial chain, not an accident.

 

[Krptonite]

Move the factory out of China? That's not so easy.

Have you ever wondered why Trump has been unable to transfer manufacturing from China? Why do Chinese people earn six times as much as Indians, but goods made in India are much more expensive than those made in China? Because China is the only country with a complete industrial system.

Even in the last century, China has never been the country with the lowest labor cost. In fact, in addition to low-end labor-intensive industries, labor cost is not the largest commodity cost, and industrial chain and logistics are the biggest commodity costs, that is also the reason why the cost of goods in countries such as India is much higher than that in China. I am engaged in cemented carbide industry, if I want to sell a batch of drill bits, first I need to buy tungsten powder and cobalt powder from other enterprises, then I need other enterprises to help me press it into alloy rods, I also need enterprises to help me do wire cutting, and I also need enterprises to help me weld the alloy head to the steel bar. A total of more than 10 enterprises are required to cooperate together. If I am an Indian, I need to mail products more than ten times around the world and bear the logistics cost and time back and forth, the logistics cost will exceed the cost of the product itself by several times. In China, I can carry out all production links in one city.

China has the largest, most perfect and most reasonably designed industrial chain in the world, and the most advanced and efficient logistics system, that is the most important reason why capital cannot leave China. Sorry, I forgot that there is also the largest market in the world. Any enterprise leaving China will face fierce competition from China, and it will be difficult for such enterprises to survive.

70% of the world's factories gather in China, which is an inevitable result of the industrial chain, not an accident.

First off I would like to thank you for this engaging conversation, it's a breath of fresh air over here.

What China has achieved is undoubtedly impressive and praise worthy and I am in complete agreement with what you've stated but during war (the actions you've proposed would undoubtedly be perceived as hostile) the equation would change.

Western powers have the ability and purse to bear such a prohibitive expense and it would no doubt harm their economies but it would also harm China and that would be the crux of the problem.

 

[VkdIndian]

Threats do not necessarily refer to military threats.

Do you think China has no ability to threaten the American economy?

Everyone in this forum knows that a threat would encompass the entire spectrum.

Whatever Xi can do, he should do within the ambit of retaliation. Economic, military, space, diplomatic or xyz have to be done now and openly. Moreover, the scale of retaliation should also be significant.
It shouldn’t happen that Xi imposes some minor economic penalty and claim massive action.
I have my doubts about any forceful retaliation.

 

[MH.Yang]

First off I would like to thank you for this engaging conversation, it's a breath of fresh air over here.

What China has achieved is undoubtedly impressive and praise worthy and I am in complete agreement with what you've stated but during war (the actions you've proposed would undoubtedly be perceived as hostile) the equation would change.

Western powers have the ability and purse to bear such a prohibitive expense and it would no doubt harm their economies but it would also harm China and that would be the crux of the problem.

First of all, we need to understand that there are two modes of modern manufacturing. One is the American model, also known as the capital model. Its goal is to maximize profits, and all behaviors are profit driven. The other is the Chinese model, also known as the central model. Its goal is to maximize output and economies of scale. The US model determines the supplier based on who can provide the best quality components at the lowest price. One component may be in Japan, one component in South Korea and one component in China. Finally, they are collected in the assembly plant and distributed globally after assembly. This model can provide high-quality and expensive products. It can make high profits, but it cannot occupy the whole production chain. The Chinese model is just the opposite. Therefore, it is impossible for western countries to rebuild and control the whole production chain, which fundamentally violates their social operation mode. Only a few small countries such as Vietnam have the ability to replicate the Chinese model. As I said, they are too small.