As the US stokes geopolitical flames with Pelosi’s Taiwan visit, China must be the bigger person

[Beast]

If they fire, then we can shoot them down and destroy ancillary facilities, and even expand to warships and headquarters. Such a war limited to the destruction of military assets will not cause geopolitical problems.


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If J-20 fly pass the skies of Taipei unscathed, it will be a victory for PLAAF.

 

[Bengal71]

If they fire, then we can shoot them down and destroy ancillary facilities, and even expand to warships and headquarters. Such a war limited to the destruction of military assets will not cause geopolitical problems.


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I think this is a good strategy. Everyday fly PLA jets over Taiwanese airspace, even above the parliament building in Taipei. It will put the ball in American's court. They have to choose between shooting down Chinese jets or doing nothing. If they shoot then China gets the license to bomb their airbases, naval bases, army bases, radars etc. If they don't do anything then they will have paid a very heavy price for a nonsense thing like Pelosi's visit.

If J-20 fly pass the skies of Taipei unscathed, it will be a victory for PLAAF.

Yes but should not send J-20. Send low grade fighters. If they shoot down then they won't get access to the latest tech China got. If China sends J-20, the US will be far more willing to shoot it down to inspect the technology in it.

 

[MH.Yang]

If J-20 fly pass the skies of Taipei unscathed, it will be a victory for PLAAF.

I think this is a good strategy. Everyday fly PLA jets over Taiwanese airspace, even above the parliament building in Taipei. It will put the ball in American's court. They have to choose between shooting down Chinese jets or doing nothing. If they shoot then China gets the license to bomb their airbases, naval bases, army bases, radars etc. If they don't do anything then they will have paid a very heavy price for a nonsense thing like Pelosi's visit.



Yes but should not send J-20. Send low grade fighters. If they shoot down then they won't get access to the latest tech China got. If China sends J-20, the US will be far more willing to shoot it down to inspect the technology in it.

Not only fighter planes, China's long-range rocket shells and DF17 missiles are crossing Taiwan's airspace.

The Taiwan army will either fire first, or there will be no territorial air and sea in the future.

 

[casual]

Not only fighter planes, China's long-range rocket shells and DF17 missiles are crossing Taiwan's airspace.

The Taiwan army will either fire first, or there will be no territorial air and sea in the future.

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don't think so. probably just some 370mm/750mm rockets from a PHL-191

 

[MH.Yang]

don't think so. probably just some 370mm/750mm rockets from a PHL-191

Many people in this forum do not know that Taiwan is only 130km away from China, and China's long-range rockets can cover Taiwan Island. The range of China's long-range rocket is longer than that of the USA' HIMARS.

 

[FuturePAF]

Why need to take the main island? Taking kinmen will be a good warning and bring the ball back to the western party. Didn't the western and Taiwan greepan party brah about western backing them up and help them defend Taiwan if war started?

Plus Biden just talk only. You think he will commit full forces to engage PLA for Taiwan? He will immediately call the stupid woman in Taiwan and lash her up. Asking not to further agitated the situation. As usual the western media will find whatever excuse to claim a victory for themselves despite failing the promise to defend Taiwan in case of a PLA attack.


Nobody talks about killing Taiwanese. Taking kinmen will be the least. If not, engage 2 F-16V and shot them down will be good enough.

Taking of kinmen (and the Matsu and Wuqiu Islands, bot on the mainland side of the straits) would defiantly send a signal, but then the US will build up its own forces or at least platforms on Taiwan island. Similar to Ukraine after the 2014 annexation of Crimea.

 

[Beast]

Taking of kinmen (and the Matsu Islands, bot on the mainland side of the straits) would defiantly send a signal, but then the US will build up its own forces or at least platforms on Taiwan island. Similar to Ukraine after the 2014 annexation of Crimea.

US can't build up forces on Taiwan. If so, China will immediately invade whole Taiwan. If US don't directly involved repel of PLA taking Kinmen. What make you think US would want to further engage PLA for whole of Taiwan?

 

[Krptonite]

1, Americans hope to suppress and attack China when the US military is still dominant. China should not enter the step that Americans envision.

2, The current economic situation of the USA is not good. We should attack the American economy. The specific method should be to raise the price of rare earth, tungsten carbide and other resources through new taxes. Thus, it once again drives the sharp rise of global bulk goods and significantly prolongs the inflation time of the USA. Second, sell US Treasuries and dollars and buy currencies such as gold and the euro. Forcing the US govt to raise interest rates substantially for a long time. Let the economic crisis come in advance. Third, the Bank of China cut interest rates and increased issuance to stimulate domestic consumption, and inspected several enterprises on major North American shipping routes to reduce exports to North America.

3, Let NGO sue the U.S. govt in Chinese courts for high compensation. The lawsuit will not be accepted for the time being. Once the USA loses its military advantage, we can use this lawsuit to legally confiscate and nationalize all American assets in China, including factories, investments and patents. China has 70% of the world's factories, and we can force the USA into a desperate situation by confiscating all factories.

2. The US has sufficient rare earth materials to tap into, extracting them causes high levels of pollutants. The US Congress is satisfied with trading them from China and in a way outsourcing that source of pollution. They have a mine operational at all times for such a scenario with contingencies to scale up if needed. Raising their prices gives others incentives to mine their own deposits and sell them, cutting into China's market share.

3. China has one of the largest US foreign reserves for a reason, to incentivise its own exports by stabalising its own currency and focusing on exports. As long as there are buyers for the US dollars it would not have any long term significant impact on US economy. You guys sell your stuff to the US, in a global market the buyer holds the leverage. Unless you can find another market for your goods, good luck trying any of your suggestions.

3. Confiscate all the factories, use whatever excuses you can come up with, as long as you can find someone to buy what the factories are producing. The largest consumer in the world is the US, without that buyer and the western markets who will buy in the amount necessary to offset the amount sold to western markets? The list of countries with all weather friends of China don't have significant buying powress.

All your suggestions hamper and harm the Chinese economy more. In the short term the western markets would face difficulties but there are other nations itching to replace China on the supply Chain, does China have alternative buyers to replace the western markets?

 

[FuturePAF]

US can't build up forces on Taiwan. If so, China will immediately invade whole Taiwan. If US don't directly involved repel of PLA taking Kinmen. What make you think US would want to further engage PLA for whole of Taiwan?

US politics. Remember President Biden’s statement of May 23, 2022. In which he said yes to the question “Are you willing to get militarily involved to defend Taiwan?” If he didn’t act he would lose face, his party and America would face.

Both US parties will pressure the President to aid Taiwan to better defend itself, preferably without putting many US boots in the ground, once a proven taking of the Kinmen, Matsu and Wuqiu Islands have been shown.

For China to take these islands will be to challenge America’s assurance to Taiwan and allies in the Indo-Pacific that America will come to their defense.

This being a midterm election year, neither party can afford to look to voters as being soft on China

does China have alternative buyers to replace the western markets?

That’s the part China really needs to work on if it hopes to make its actions carry its full weight. China should be looking to not think of its partner nations as primarily markets for itse products but economies that can grow to be large enough to be able to absorb more Chinese exports and offset to a significant degree potential western sanctions. That’s what should be a major goal of BRI, similar to the Marshall plan. Helping countries like Sri Lanka, Venezuela and Pakistan fix their economies (and stay fixed) and staying out of the IMF packages will be the best way to have growing markets able to absorb these exports. If China does this across the global south, it could boost interdependence between itself and dozens of partner nations. It would also be more profitable then a lot of the investment in real estate in China.

 

[MH.Yang]

2. The US has sufficient rare earth materials to tap into, extracting them causes high levels of pollutants. The US Congress is satisfied with trading them from China and in a way outsourcing that source of pollution. They have a mine operational at all times for such a scenario with contingencies to scale up if needed. Raising their prices gives others incentives to mine their own deposits and sell them, cutting into China's market share.

3. China has one of the largest US foreign reserves for a reason, to incentivise its own exports by stabalising its own currency and focusing on exports. As long as there are buyers for the US dollars it would not have any long term significant impact on US economy. You guys sell your stuff to the US, in a global market the buyer holds the leverage. Unless you can find another market for your goods, good luck trying any of your suggestions.

3. Confiscate all the factories, use whatever excuses you can come up with, as long as you can find someone to buy what the factories are producing. The largest consumer in the world is the US, without that buyer and the western markets who will buy in the amount necessary to offset the amount sold to western markets? The list of countries with all weather friends of China don't have significant buying powress.

All your suggestions hamper and harm the Chinese economy more. In the short term the western markets would face difficulties but there are other nations itching to replace China on the supply Chain, does China have alternative buyers to replace the western markets?

First of all, we need to understand that rare earth is divided into two kinds, one is light rare earth, the other is heavy rare earth.

Light rare earth has seven elements, the main component is cerium. Light rare earths are widely distributed, with large reserves in China, Mongolia, Brazil, Vietnam and other countries. China's reserves account for 23% of the world's rare earth reserves.

The main component of heavy rare earth is yttrium. Heavy rare earths are mainly used in satellite, missile, aircraft engine, laser and other industries. The reserves of heavy rare earths are small, mainly distributed in Jiangxi and Anhui provinces of China. China's heavy rare earth reserves account for 92% of the global reserves.

China now monopolizes the global rare earth industry. Whether Brazil, Australia, Canada or the USA, almost all their rare earth mines are mined by Chinese enterprises. That is because China has monopolized the rare earth mining technology and patents.

The greater threat than rare earth is China's control over tungsten carbide. China controls 80% of the world's tungsten carbide minerals, and 50% of the minerals are in China's territory. Tungsten carbide is a material for making cemented carbide. And any commodity you need in your life cannot be separated from cemented carbide.

Is China more in need of markets, or is the West more in need of commodities. I don't know. I only know that human industrial chain comes from the accumulation of human civilization for thousands of years. Once the West loses all its factories, it will take more than 100 years to build them from scratch to their current scale.

 

[Beast]

Battle of Yijiangshan Islands - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[Krptonite]

First of all, we need to understand that rare earth is divided into two kinds, one is light rare earth, the other is heavy rare earth.

Light rare earth has seven elements, the main component is cerium. Light rare earths are widely distributed, with large reserves in China, Mongolia, Brazil, Vietnam and other countries. China's reserves account for 23% of the world's rare earth reserves.

The main component of heavy rare earth is yttrium. Heavy rare earths are mainly used in satellite, missile, aircraft engine, laser and other industries. The reserves of heavy rare earths are small, mainly distributed in Jiangxi and Anhui provinces of China. China's heavy rare earth reserves account for 92% of the global reserves.

China now monopolizes the global rare earth industry. Whether Brazil, Australia, Canada or the USA, almost all their rare earth mines are mined by Chinese enterprises. That is because China has monopolized the rare earth mining technology and patents.

The greater threat than rare earth is China's control over tungsten carbide. China controls 80% of the world's tungsten carbide minerals, and 50% of the minerals are in China's territory. Tungsten carbide is a material for making cemented carbide. And any commodity you need in your life cannot be separated from cemented carbide.

Is China more in need of markets, or is the West more in need of commodities. I don't know. I only know that human industrial chain comes from the accumulation of human civilization for thousands of years. Once the West loses all its factories, it will take more than 100 years to build them from scratch to their current scale.

All valid points, but miss the core of the argument.

1. China isn't the only provider of these elements, their shortage would cause short term problems for western markets but long term damage to Chinese exporters

2. You really think patents and copyright are strong enough not to be circumvented by minor modifications or for a determined nation to outright forego such laws in the name of national interests? Global law is only as powerful as those enforcing it.
Good luck trying to legalese the US into submission.

3. What good are all the goods produced by China if there is no one with similar buying capacity as western markets.

 

[GreatHanWarrior]

Yes but that's part of their diplomatic ambiguity. The moment China tries to take any Taiwanese land by military means they will call it an invasion. I personally don't believe in the invasion, I think Taiwan is part of China and it should be reunified but that's not how the west is going to play.

But China is now blocking Taiwan. From sea to air. National reunification can be completed at any time... Now who is calling China an "invasion" of Taiwan?

The whole world. Who announced the protection of Taiwan?? Like they "protect" Ukraine?

Few dozen (if that) +60 year old people is now seen as massive protest?

one 054A can massacre the Israeli navy on a large scale. really?

All valid points, but miss the core of the argument.

1. China isn't the only provider of these elements, their shortage would cause short term problems for western markets but long term damage to Chinese exporters

2. You really think patents and copyright are strong enough not to be circumvented by minor modifications or for a determined nation to outright forego such laws in the name of national interests? Global law is only as powerful as those enforcing it.
Good luck trying to legalese the US into submission.

3. What good are all the goods produced by China if there is no one with similar buying capacity as western markets.

So. Because of these elements. Do you think China will not use force to recover Taiwan?

I think that China can do a lot. The question is -Will it do?
Some experts (Chinese of course) are saying that China will retaliate few years later when it has decisive edge over the US.
If that was so then Xi shouldn’t have issued a warning now. It should have kept quite and sucked it up till it was sure to be able to take some action.

From now on (August 4), China has completely blocked Taiwan. At present. No country in the world claims to "protect" Taiwan. Just like they "protect" Ukraine.

 

[FuturePAF]

Perhaps China will take Pratas Island, about 300 km southwest of Taiwan and barely inhabited. Or China could also make a move for the Taiwanese controlled island in the Spratelys. Both possibly below the threshold of a US response to aid Taiwan.

This could be instead of or alongside moves to take Kinmen, Matsu and Wuqui Islands, but not the Penghu Islands on the Taiwanese side of the straits

 

[MH.Yang]

All valid points, but miss the core of the argument.

1. China isn't the only provider of these elements, their shortage would cause short term problems for western markets but long term damage to Chinese exporters

2. You really think patents and copyright are strong enough not to be circumvented by minor modifications or for a determined nation to outright forego such laws in the name of national interests? Global law is only as powerful as those enforcing it.
Good luck trying to legalese the US into submission.

3. What good are all the goods produced by China if there is no one with similar buying capacity as western markets.

1, We are almost the only supplier of rare earth and tungsten carbide, especially heavy rare earth.

2, If our navy is stronger than the USA, we can protect our routes and protect our interests overseas. It is only a matter of time before our navy surpasses the USA. I think you can live to see this day.

3, You still don't realize the impact of China's nationalization of all factories on the West. First, all Western currencies will become waste paper, currencies that cannot buy goods will not be accepted by any country. Secondly, the remaining factories in the West will soon be shut down and scrapped due to the fracture of the industrial chain. Third, China will provide essential goods and investment to countries in the non US camp, trade with CNY, re establish markets in these countries. China can also expand domestic demand. Don't forget that China has 1.4 billion people.

4, Without factories, there would be no goods. The lack of commodity support means the complete collapse of the western monetary system and the most vicious inflation.
You can use dollars to rebuild the industrial chain from scratch. But at that time, I'm afraid no country will accept the dollar. Because you can't provide any goods for these dollars.
You can imagine that Tesla's automobile factory, Apple's factory, patents and factories of various chips have suddenly become the property of Chinese state-owned enterprises overnight. Even some factories left in the West will stop production because of the rupture of the industrial chain. What will happen in the United States? You will be forced to rob necessities with a gun, just as blacks once did.
Without enough materials, American warships and tanks at that time were probably a pile of scrap iron, and even the Iraq war could not be repeated. Of course, it is more likely that the US military is busy quelling civil unrest. China will use necessities to require other resource countries to use RMB for trade settlement.

5, You come from the West and are not as familiar with industrial knowledge as the Chinese, so you really underestimate the difficulty and time of rebuilding the modern industrial system from scratch.
These are consumables for coal and oil mines. If the supply of consumables is stopped, these mines will be shut down within three days. If the work is stopped for more than three months, these machines need to be overhauled and then scrapped<So if China ZCC.CT group (factory 601, which produces 35% of the world's cemented carbide products) imposes sanctions on Russia, Russia will not be able to produce any resources.>.

The modern industrial system is a result of the gradual upgrading and accumulation of human beings over a thousand years. If the industrial chain breaks, it will be scrapped quickly, but the reconstruction time will take generations.
For example, if you want to make penicillin, a necessity of modern mankind, you first need to be able to make freeze-dried powder. If you want to make lyophilized powder, you first need high voltage current. If you want high voltage current, you first need stainless steel, special steel, rubber and electric welding. Synthetic rubber needs organic chemical industry, which needs ethylene manufacturing and aromatics manufacturing. Welding requires electrical systems, which require capacitor manufacturing and mercury arc rectifiers, which require chlorine manufacturing and aluminum industry. Just one penicillin, you need to develop hundreds of industrial links. It takes only a week for China to get resource countries to abandon the dollar, because Chinese have mastered the necessities of life and production consumables they need. The west can't even make light bulbs in a week, because it needs vacuum pumps, and then vacuum pumps need hundreds of advanced technologies.
Even if Western countries are given a hundred years, they will not be able to rebuild the whole industrial chain from scratch. China is the only country on the blue planet with a complete manufacturing industry.