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As the US stokes geopolitical flames with Pelosi’s Taiwan visit, China must be the bigger person
Christopher Nixon Cox and James Arnold
Published: 6:45am, 4 Aug, 2022
Illustration: Craig Stephens
As the leaders of the Chinese Communist Party prepare to gather in the seaside resort of Beidaihe for their annual summer summit, US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi went ahead with her controversial visit to Taiwan, leaving on Wednesday.
With a strong likelihood that the Democrats will lose their House majority in November’s midterm elections, Pelosi is taking one last trip to the region. It is possible she hopes it will allow her to remain as Speaker.
The Speaker of the House does not have authority to conduct US foreign policy. Moreover, it is hard to imagine that Pelosi could do more damage to America’s global standing than President Joe Biden has already done by following the advice of Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Iran envoy Robert Malley and National Security official Maher Bitar, with regard to Yemen, Israel, Afghanistan, Ukraine, Saudi Arabia, and now China. But that doesn’t mean she will not contribute to the serial disasters.
US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (centre), walks with Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Joseph Wu (left) as she arrives with a US delegation in Taipei on August 2. Photo: Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs via AP
Emboldened by the inanity of the Biden administration’s foreign policy, the People’s Liberation Army plans to conduct military exercises, effectively surrounding Taiwan for the next four days. Pelosi’s trip has been long on the cards, giving the PLA plenty of time to put a plan together.
The risk of a military misunderstanding appears to be significant. Or, more likely, the PLA has a more complex Sun-Tzu-style approach in mind that will throw into doubt the whole notion of the Taiwan Strait as an international seaway.
We are seeing a significant escalation of the “Wolf Warrior diplomacy” that has arisen in Beijing in the past half a decade following the unveiling of the Made in China 2025 policy. Covid-19 lockdowns have taken their toll on leaders’ ability to withstand uncertainty.
America’s Ronald Reagan Carrier Strike Group and the USS Tripoli are now in the vicinity of Taiwan, while the PLA has deployed the aircraft carriers Liaoning and Shandong in preparation for the military drills.
A screen shows footage of People’s Liberation Army ships during an evening news programme in Beijing on August 2. Photo: Reuters
Pelosi and a handful of other senior Democrats are attempting to draw the focus away from economic and social issues at home as the US prepares for elections – a foolhardy game given ongoing geopolitical and social gyrations.
For half a century, the one-China policy has recognised Beijing’s claim on Taiwan but has also insisted that the eventual unification be peaceful. Taiwan is part of China, given its demography and geography, yet it enjoys a high degree of self-governance thanks to twists in history and a Schrodinger’s-Cat-style policy of strategic ambiguity between Washington and Beijing that has undoubtedly benefited all sides.
Indeed, given Taiwan’s proximity – the Quemoy and Matsu Islands are only 5km from the Chinese mainland – its autonomy reflects the Communist Party’s decision to pursue amicable relations between Chinese peoples, whether on the mainland or offshore.
Taiwan produces microchips that supply the modern world and consequently it remains a serious national security issue for the United States, as it does for China. However, the new Chips Act will lead US security concerns to subside over the coming decade. At the same time, it is still estimated that China’s GDP will surpass that of the United States and the geopolitical world may then inevitably become multipolar.
At the 1974 UN General Assembly, Deng Xiaoping stated that: “China is not a superpower, nor will she ever seek to be one. If one day China should change her colour and turn into a superpower, if she too should play the tyrant in the world, and everywhere subject others to her bullying, aggression and exploitation, the people of the world should identify it as social-imperialism, expose it, oppose it and work together with the Chinese people to overthrow it.”
As the years roll by, the PLA is sure to further develop its capabilities. Eventually, the island of Taiwan might decide that its commercial and security interests lie with its superpower neighbour, and choose to negotiate an entente that peacefully leads to a mutually agreeable form of unification.
As stated in the Shanghai Communique, issued by the US and China 50 years ago, “countries should treat each other with mutual respect and be willing to compete peacefully, letting performance be the ultimate judge”. Democrats should focus on their appalling economic performance rather than take cheap sabre-rattling shots to distract the US electorate.
Xi warns Biden that US ‘playing with fire’ as tensions soar over Pelosi’s proposed Taiwan visit
During the talks in Beidaihe, more risky pathways to Taiwan unification will undoubtedly be considered, yet these can serve no lasting purpose to Chinese economic and social development.
China’s client states are already struggling with the consequences of a self-inflicted Russian strategic miscalculation that will undoubtedly limit Chinese export growth and put belt and road investments at serious risk.
Indeed, Chinese ambassador to the US Qin Gang pointed out earlier this year that “our common enemy should be the major challenges concerning the survival and the development of both countries and mankind”.
Will China choose a confluent series of exogenous and endogenous economic shocks that would be felt worldwide? Or will it progressively overcome economic and geopolitical obstacles by controlled, sheer inertia? Beidaihe might be a moment for serious introspection to avoid the most unpleasant of all possible outcomes for China and the larger world.
As former US president Richard Nixon said, “what we must do is to find a way to see that we can have differences without being enemies in war”.
Christopher Nixon Cox is the grandson of president Richard Nixon. He is the CEO of Lightswitch Capital, a member of the board of directors of the Nixon Foundation and a trustee of the American University of Afghanistan
James Arnold is a British financier, geopolitical strategist and an investor in deep-learning technologies who writes on US politics and foreign affairs
- While on the US side, the timing of the trip suggests an attempt to distract voters from troubles at home, for Beijing it comes as a provocation amid already-high tensions
- The temptation for Beijing will be to speed up cross-strait unification, but the world needs at least one global power to show restraint
Christopher Nixon Cox and James Arnold
Published: 6:45am, 4 Aug, 2022
Illustration: Craig Stephens
As the leaders of the Chinese Communist Party prepare to gather in the seaside resort of Beidaihe for their annual summer summit, US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi went ahead with her controversial visit to Taiwan, leaving on Wednesday.
With a strong likelihood that the Democrats will lose their House majority in November’s midterm elections, Pelosi is taking one last trip to the region. It is possible she hopes it will allow her to remain as Speaker.
The Speaker of the House does not have authority to conduct US foreign policy. Moreover, it is hard to imagine that Pelosi could do more damage to America’s global standing than President Joe Biden has already done by following the advice of Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Iran envoy Robert Malley and National Security official Maher Bitar, with regard to Yemen, Israel, Afghanistan, Ukraine, Saudi Arabia, and now China. But that doesn’t mean she will not contribute to the serial disasters.
US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (centre), walks with Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Joseph Wu (left) as she arrives with a US delegation in Taipei on August 2. Photo: Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs via AP
Emboldened by the inanity of the Biden administration’s foreign policy, the People’s Liberation Army plans to conduct military exercises, effectively surrounding Taiwan for the next four days. Pelosi’s trip has been long on the cards, giving the PLA plenty of time to put a plan together.
The risk of a military misunderstanding appears to be significant. Or, more likely, the PLA has a more complex Sun-Tzu-style approach in mind that will throw into doubt the whole notion of the Taiwan Strait as an international seaway.
We are seeing a significant escalation of the “Wolf Warrior diplomacy” that has arisen in Beijing in the past half a decade following the unveiling of the Made in China 2025 policy. Covid-19 lockdowns have taken their toll on leaders’ ability to withstand uncertainty.
America’s Ronald Reagan Carrier Strike Group and the USS Tripoli are now in the vicinity of Taiwan, while the PLA has deployed the aircraft carriers Liaoning and Shandong in preparation for the military drills.
A screen shows footage of People’s Liberation Army ships during an evening news programme in Beijing on August 2. Photo: Reuters
Pelosi and a handful of other senior Democrats are attempting to draw the focus away from economic and social issues at home as the US prepares for elections – a foolhardy game given ongoing geopolitical and social gyrations.
For half a century, the one-China policy has recognised Beijing’s claim on Taiwan but has also insisted that the eventual unification be peaceful. Taiwan is part of China, given its demography and geography, yet it enjoys a high degree of self-governance thanks to twists in history and a Schrodinger’s-Cat-style policy of strategic ambiguity between Washington and Beijing that has undoubtedly benefited all sides.
Indeed, given Taiwan’s proximity – the Quemoy and Matsu Islands are only 5km from the Chinese mainland – its autonomy reflects the Communist Party’s decision to pursue amicable relations between Chinese peoples, whether on the mainland or offshore.
Taiwan produces microchips that supply the modern world and consequently it remains a serious national security issue for the United States, as it does for China. However, the new Chips Act will lead US security concerns to subside over the coming decade. At the same time, it is still estimated that China’s GDP will surpass that of the United States and the geopolitical world may then inevitably become multipolar.
At the 1974 UN General Assembly, Deng Xiaoping stated that: “China is not a superpower, nor will she ever seek to be one. If one day China should change her colour and turn into a superpower, if she too should play the tyrant in the world, and everywhere subject others to her bullying, aggression and exploitation, the people of the world should identify it as social-imperialism, expose it, oppose it and work together with the Chinese people to overthrow it.”
As the years roll by, the PLA is sure to further develop its capabilities. Eventually, the island of Taiwan might decide that its commercial and security interests lie with its superpower neighbour, and choose to negotiate an entente that peacefully leads to a mutually agreeable form of unification.
As stated in the Shanghai Communique, issued by the US and China 50 years ago, “countries should treat each other with mutual respect and be willing to compete peacefully, letting performance be the ultimate judge”. Democrats should focus on their appalling economic performance rather than take cheap sabre-rattling shots to distract the US electorate.
During the talks in Beidaihe, more risky pathways to Taiwan unification will undoubtedly be considered, yet these can serve no lasting purpose to Chinese economic and social development.
China’s client states are already struggling with the consequences of a self-inflicted Russian strategic miscalculation that will undoubtedly limit Chinese export growth and put belt and road investments at serious risk.
Indeed, Chinese ambassador to the US Qin Gang pointed out earlier this year that “our common enemy should be the major challenges concerning the survival and the development of both countries and mankind”.
Will China choose a confluent series of exogenous and endogenous economic shocks that would be felt worldwide? Or will it progressively overcome economic and geopolitical obstacles by controlled, sheer inertia? Beidaihe might be a moment for serious introspection to avoid the most unpleasant of all possible outcomes for China and the larger world.
As former US president Richard Nixon said, “what we must do is to find a way to see that we can have differences without being enemies in war”.
Christopher Nixon Cox is the grandson of president Richard Nixon. He is the CEO of Lightswitch Capital, a member of the board of directors of the Nixon Foundation and a trustee of the American University of Afghanistan
James Arnold is a British financier, geopolitical strategist and an investor in deep-learning technologies who writes on US politics and foreign affairs
