Areesh
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NEW DELHI — As the coronavirus pandemic accelerates in the world's second-most-populous nation, India has crossed a once-unthinkable threshold: 1 million confirmed cases, joining the United States and Brazil in a club no country wants to enter.
Yet behind the figure lies a paradox. India has arrived at this milestone with about half the number of deaths — 25,000 — as those two countries recorded at the same point in their outbreaks.
India’s comparatively low death rates — both as a percentage of total cases and per million population — are something of a mystery. The Indian government has cited the figures repeatedly to reassure a worried populace, saying such statistics show the country is faring better than many others in the pandemic.
That optimism appears misplaced. Experts say government data on deaths is certain to be incomplete in a country where a large majority of people die in rural areas and without any medical attention, making them less likely to be tested or diagnosed. Already there are numerous signs that coronavirus deaths are being missed or misreported. Testing rates per capita in India remain low.
India is not the only country with a high number of reported cases and relatively low official fatalities. While Russia has more than 750,000 confirmed coronavirus cases, the country has reported about 12,000 deaths, sparking suspicion over counting methods.
“Have you ever thought about the possibility of Russia's health-care system being more effective?” Peskov asked.
The number of deaths against confirmed cases for Russia is 1.6 percent. India’s stands at 2.6 percent. The rate in the United States is 3.9 percent. But experts caution that such figures are highly sensitive to testing rates and death reporting, so they have limited value.
The actual risk of dying of a coronavirus infection may be lower than such figures suggest because many cases appear to be asymptomatic and undetected.
In India, one factor that experts say may indeed be lowering the death toll is its predominantly youthful population. According to the most recent census, only 5 percent of Indians were 65 or older, while more than half were under age 25. Although much remains unknown about the virus, studies have shown that older people are far more likely to experience severe or fatal outcomes.
A clutch of alternate theories has sprung up to explain India’s lower number of deaths, including widespread exposure to a tuberculosis vaccine that may stimulate the immune system, a different strain of the virus circulating here, and an undiscovered immunological or genetic factor present in the population. None are yet supported by evidence, experts say.
Meanwhile, the outbreak in India shows no sign of slowing, pushing some states and cities to reimpose lockdowns lifted weeks ago. Both the number of daily cases and daily deaths are rising and setting fresh records. India could be facing a “slow time bomb” as the virus continues to spread, said Prabhat Jha, an epidemiologist at the University of Toronto.
Jha previously led a major study to ascertain the causes of a million deaths in India, and he said a similar large-scale effort is needed if the country is to understand the true scope of infections. “The only way to walk out of this pandemic will be better data, and it’s not being collected,” Jha said.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...6aacac-c0a2-11ea-b178-bb7b05b94af1_story.html
Yet behind the figure lies a paradox. India has arrived at this milestone with about half the number of deaths — 25,000 — as those two countries recorded at the same point in their outbreaks.
India’s comparatively low death rates — both as a percentage of total cases and per million population — are something of a mystery. The Indian government has cited the figures repeatedly to reassure a worried populace, saying such statistics show the country is faring better than many others in the pandemic.
That optimism appears misplaced. Experts say government data on deaths is certain to be incomplete in a country where a large majority of people die in rural areas and without any medical attention, making them less likely to be tested or diagnosed. Already there are numerous signs that coronavirus deaths are being missed or misreported. Testing rates per capita in India remain low.
India is not the only country with a high number of reported cases and relatively low official fatalities. While Russia has more than 750,000 confirmed coronavirus cases, the country has reported about 12,000 deaths, sparking suspicion over counting methods.
“Have you ever thought about the possibility of Russia's health-care system being more effective?” Peskov asked.
The number of deaths against confirmed cases for Russia is 1.6 percent. India’s stands at 2.6 percent. The rate in the United States is 3.9 percent. But experts caution that such figures are highly sensitive to testing rates and death reporting, so they have limited value.
The actual risk of dying of a coronavirus infection may be lower than such figures suggest because many cases appear to be asymptomatic and undetected.
In India, one factor that experts say may indeed be lowering the death toll is its predominantly youthful population. According to the most recent census, only 5 percent of Indians were 65 or older, while more than half were under age 25. Although much remains unknown about the virus, studies have shown that older people are far more likely to experience severe or fatal outcomes.
A clutch of alternate theories has sprung up to explain India’s lower number of deaths, including widespread exposure to a tuberculosis vaccine that may stimulate the immune system, a different strain of the virus circulating here, and an undiscovered immunological or genetic factor present in the population. None are yet supported by evidence, experts say.
Meanwhile, the outbreak in India shows no sign of slowing, pushing some states and cities to reimpose lockdowns lifted weeks ago. Both the number of daily cases and daily deaths are rising and setting fresh records. India could be facing a “slow time bomb” as the virus continues to spread, said Prabhat Jha, an epidemiologist at the University of Toronto.
Jha previously led a major study to ascertain the causes of a million deaths in India, and he said a similar large-scale effort is needed if the country is to understand the true scope of infections. “The only way to walk out of this pandemic will be better data, and it’s not being collected,” Jha said.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...6aacac-c0a2-11ea-b178-bb7b05b94af1_story.html
