As China ‘will definitely retaliate’ military provocation, experts warn US not to escalate tensions

[Feng Leng]

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1195968.shtml

South China Sea

The rising tensions between the two countries and increased military activities from both sides even raised speculations that the US could attack China's islands in the South China Sea, since US military presence in the region has increased. But Chinese military experts said the US has no advantage in the South China Sea.

On potential military conflicts in the region between China and the US, Hu Bo, director of SCSPI, told the Global Times on Tuesday that the chance of a large-scale conflict between China and the US is minimal because both countries are nuclear powers. Even if the US frequently flexes its muscles in the South China Sea, it does not mean it is materially and mentally prepared for a major conflict.

However, the possibility of small and medium-sized clashes, which could involve ship collisions and occasional firing incidents, is rising, Hu said, noting that the uncertainties mainly come from the US, including its upcoming presidential election, influence of domestic hard-liners, and potential escalations of aircraft and vessel encounters in the South China Sea.

But if US aircraft or ships in the region cross the bottom line of China's security and sovereignty, and also ignore the warning, small-scale "firing incidents" could erupt, Song told the Global Times on Tuesday.

Taiwan more risky

But US politicians believe that Taiwan is a card that can effectively influence the Chinese mainland, and the US Congress has already authorized the White House to boost military ties with the island. So it is very likely to see Taiwan military forces join drills organized by the US, or US military ships could visit Taiwan ports, Song noted.

Jin said patience is needed to handle US provocations on politics, trade and diplomacy, and wait until the next US administration.

"But there is no room for Chinese policymakers to compromise on sovereignty and security issues. The US could face a direct military operation from the PLA if it provokes China," Jin noted.

At this point, deterrence is extremely important, Jin said. "Some US politicians who support a hawkish approach to China don't even know China is armed with nuclear arsenals. This is truly dangerous, because it means your rivals have no idea about your strength, and then they will make stupid moves. We need to make our deterrence more visible, transparent and direct, to effectively deter any US military provocation."

If the US crosses the red line and activates the Anti-secession Law of China, the PLA will give a stronger response than during the 1995-96 Taiwan Straits crisis, as the PLA is getting much more powerful and modern, analysts said.


Beijing expects some warship ramming in the South China Sea and possibly some naval artillery exchanges. It also expects some kind of military clash over Taiwan in the next three months.

 

[Figaro]

I can safely assure you going to war with the United States is not in China's political, economic, or above all military interest. As much as the Global Times would like to suggest China can easily win a war against the US in the SCS, this is not true.

 

[Feng Leng]

I can safely assure you going to war with the United States is not in China's political, economic, or above all military interest. As much as the Global Times would like to suggest China can easily win a war against the US in the SCS, this is not true.

All great powers get to where they are by defeating their enemies in a climatic battle. This is the inevitable conclusion to the China-US conflict. I expect China to experience the same glory as Britannia's defeat of the Spanish Armada and Soviet Union's defeat of the Third Reich. Or Joe Biden might get elected and the US will retreat back to North America to lick its wounds.

 

[Figaro]

All great powers get to where they are by defeating their enemies in a climatic battle. This is the inevitable conclusion to the China-US conflict. I expect China to experience the same glory as Britannia's defeat of the Spanish Armada and Soviet Union's defeat of the Third Reich. Or Joe Biden might get elected and the US will retreat back to North America to lick its wounds.

Come on do you really believe this? How many modern wars have been won by a climactic battle? There is no way IMO for either the PLAN or the USN to defeat each other in a Tsushima-like battle. As much as the PLAN has improved in recent years, the USN is still the dominant naval force in East Asia. Even if the Chinese are to match the USN in East Asia in the next couple years, the USN's decades of experience and combat should not be discounted. In the beginning stages of WW2, the USN's capabilities lagged far behind those of Japan's, especially in carrier aviation. And yet look what happened. The Japanese too thought they could deliver a "decisive blow" to the USN and that never happened. What makes you think the PLAN would too?

 

[Dalit]

US would do well to just continue flying circles over SCS. That is the only jurisdiction US has over SCS.

 

[zectech]

They want to lose in the SCS, so China:

(1) is gutted of manufacturing
(2) loses EU friends
(3) end of BRI
(4) no import of raw materials into China

So even if China wins in the SCS, they lose their economy.

This is what they hate:

This is the VERY reason why the US did the Ft Detrick bioweapon attack.

 

[zectech]

Douchebag bullies don't want to be replaced in school as number one, so they are trying to pick a fight with China.

China is the popular new kid, and the rest of the bullied kids in Europe and Latin America and Middle East would side with the bully in a fight against China because they don't want to get beat up again.

China loses if they fight and win.

 

[Dil Pakistan]

I can safely assure you going to war with the United States is not in China's political, economic, or above all military interest. As much as the Global Times would like to suggest China can easily win a war against the US in the SCS, this is not true.

And! do you think it is in the political, economic and military of interest of US to go to war with China?

 

[Figaro]

And! do you think it is in the political, economic and military of interest of US to go to war with China?

Definitely not but this Global Times article seems to be extremely confident of victory should war break out in the SCS ... make no mistake, if war does break out between the US and China, both countries will go all in just like the US vs Japan in WWII. It will not be a limited conflict.

 

[Feng Leng]

Come on do you really believe this? How many modern wars have been won by a climactic battle? There is no way IMO for either the PLAN or the USN to defeat each other in a Tsushima-like battle. As much as the PLAN has improved in recent years, the USN is still the dominant naval force in East Asia. Even if the Chinese are to match the USN in East Asia in the next couple years, the USN's decades of experience and combat should not be discounted. In the beginning stages of WW2, the USN's capabilities lagged far behind those of Japan's, especially in carrier aviation. And yet look what happened. The Japanese too thought they could deliver a "decisive blow" to the USN and that never happened. What makes you think the PLAN would too?

The Spanish Armada thought they owned the world too. See what happened to them? History is going to repeat itself here on the other side of the globe.

The Japanese were fighting China for 5 years and stuck in a quagmire so they had to attack the US to gain a free hand in Southeast Asia. There is nothing magical about the US navy. They bleed just like everybody else. They can't even take 10,000 deaths at sea I bet without public pressure forcing a surrender.

 

[Figaro]

The Spanish Armada thought they owned the world too. See what happened to them? History is going to repeat itself here on the other side of the globe.

The Japanese were fighting China for 5 years and stuck in a quagmire so they had to attack the US to gain a free hand in Southeast Asia. There is nothing magical about the US navy. They bleed just like everybody else. They can't even take 10,000 deaths at sea I bet without public pressure forcing a surrender.

Please tell me who wiped out arguably the strongest navy in the world, the Imperial Japanese Navy? You are sounding like Saddam here. Ohhh the US will not attack Iraq because its soldiers cannot handle deaths/suffering ... come on man.

 

[Feng Leng]

Dude tell me who wiped out arguably the strongest navy in the world, the Imperial Japanese Navy?

If China surrendered, the combined might of East Asia would have driven the US back to Hawaii at least. And an attack through Mongolia would render the Soviet Far East defenseless.

 

[Figaro]

If China surrendered, the combined might of East Asia would have driven the US back to Hawaii at least.

You are talking about the Japanese Army! The full force of the IJN was available to fight the USN ... it's not like the IJN was also fighting the Soviet or Chinese navies at the same time. Had China surrendered, it would have made taking Japanese islands much more difficult and costly. But the naval operations would still be similar.

 

[Feng Leng]

You are talking about the Japanese Army! The full force of the IJN was available to fight the USN ... it's not like the IJN was also fighting the Soviet or Chinese navies at the same time. Had China surrendered, it would have made taking Japanese islands much more difficult and costly. But the naval operations would still be similar.

If Japan was a continental power with 400 million people it would not have lost to USA. The Japanese islands don't even have mines. There is nothing magical about the US navy. The Pacific Ocean is not labeled "property of the US government". The US can and will be defeated. We will bask in the glory of Britannia and Soviet Union combined after defeat of Spanish Armada and Third Reich.

 

[tower9]

I can safely assure you going to war with the United States is not in China's political, economic, or above all military interest. As much as the Global Times would like to suggest China can easily win a war against the US in the SCS, this is not true.

The US will provoke the war, not China. Pompeo is ramping up aggression just to do this.