graphican
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It is visible that India is itching for a war.
As a pretext, I am laying my reading of India's possible path to it. In order to offend, rage and prepare its countrymen against Pakistan and get a justification before international audience, Modi would need a terrorist incident in India of similar scale like 26/11, (could be of a religious nature. An attack on hindu temple is likely in which the temple god will be insulted or it could be about Kashmir and support from Pakistan will be shown).
However, Modi will use this terrorist attack to gather International sympathies and pile pressure on Pakistan to act against those terrorists or face war - and America too will pressurize Pakistan to give in to Indian terms and these terms will secretly include reversing/halting Pak-China Economic Corridor and Gawadar Port. Pakistan will be given its option to decide if it wants a war or reversal and also action against terrorists. (USA has already stopped appreciating Pakistan's effort on terrorism and has started complaining again that action against all terrorists is not being taken.)
If Pakistan chooses not to reverse its cooperation with China, expect another terrorist incident or high levels of skirmishes at border specifically in Kashmir region - all blamed at Pakistan and these will be the last one before war. India needs to stop Pakistan from economic corridor as otherwise, it will be an Indian neck-strap... and to reverse/deny that India is most likely to approach it on the pattern I mentioned above.
USA has been silent on this economic corridor and lease of Gawadar Port to China, yet its reaction can be witnessed by its recent generosity and offers of military hardware to India. From these developments, you can read who's side is USA going to stand.
Expect China to come-up with a defence pact with Pakistan sometime soon and expect it would interfere with Indian border in Arunachal Perdesh as a distraction tactic - which after assurance from America, India won't fall to. USA would use its pressure but would not participate in this war. Russia would stay neutral.
I think there is still some time before this starts happening, India needs Rafale and few more off the-shelf procurements before it thinks its ready. Mind the speed at which Indian defence deals are being cleared.
I am not for war but I see it coming and being imposed on Pakistan.
Its just my reading of reality but Allah knows the best.
As a pretext, I am laying my reading of India's possible path to it. In order to offend, rage and prepare its countrymen against Pakistan and get a justification before international audience, Modi would need a terrorist incident in India of similar scale like 26/11, (could be of a religious nature. An attack on hindu temple is likely in which the temple god will be insulted or it could be about Kashmir and support from Pakistan will be shown).
However, Modi will use this terrorist attack to gather International sympathies and pile pressure on Pakistan to act against those terrorists or face war - and America too will pressurize Pakistan to give in to Indian terms and these terms will secretly include reversing/halting Pak-China Economic Corridor and Gawadar Port. Pakistan will be given its option to decide if it wants a war or reversal and also action against terrorists. (USA has already stopped appreciating Pakistan's effort on terrorism and has started complaining again that action against all terrorists is not being taken.)
If Pakistan chooses not to reverse its cooperation with China, expect another terrorist incident or high levels of skirmishes at border specifically in Kashmir region - all blamed at Pakistan and these will be the last one before war. India needs to stop Pakistan from economic corridor as otherwise, it will be an Indian neck-strap... and to reverse/deny that India is most likely to approach it on the pattern I mentioned above.
USA has been silent on this economic corridor and lease of Gawadar Port to China, yet its reaction can be witnessed by its recent generosity and offers of military hardware to India. From these developments, you can read who's side is USA going to stand.
Expect China to come-up with a defence pact with Pakistan sometime soon and expect it would interfere with Indian border in Arunachal Perdesh as a distraction tactic - which after assurance from America, India won't fall to. USA would use its pressure but would not participate in this war. Russia would stay neutral.
I think there is still some time before this starts happening, India needs Rafale and few more off the-shelf procurements before it thinks its ready. Mind the speed at which Indian defence deals are being cleared.
I am not for war but I see it coming and being imposed on Pakistan.
Its just my reading of reality but Allah knows the best.
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