TheSolution
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Forget the idea of evidence, there is no proper rule of law for even our native citizens, and it will waste too much time filtering through, and even one wrong assumption could cost you.After reading this post, I went to go read a book on my shelf I’ve been wanting to read for some time. I’ll tell you what it is when I finish and can give a full opinion based on that and a few interviews about Afghan history I’ve been looking to watch.
From the book, I’m coming around to accepting your view that, no matter what we will do their aspirations will remain the same. I will concede offering easier movement is putting the cart before the horse. It’s not something to consider until we have a solid track record of years of relations that address our concerns with the Afghans. In the mean time, I agree deporting threats (or better yet jailing then, so they can’t join militant groups) if we have evidence and can convict them in a court of law, should definitely be implemented.
Anyone who you are even slightly suspicious of should be jailed, this saves time, and brings maximum stability & security. (This is what we need before truly shifting to economic growth)
Good suggestions.I agree, we should not be kicking the can down the road, in fact now is probably the best time, since 1947, to finally address this issue.
But I do want to caution that we should not try to stir up the Afghans but rather empower our own loyal Pakistani Pashtuns to be better able to police the region and bring economic development. Therefore we should keep raids into Afghanistan at a minimum but definitely do them as the Afghans also need to know when they have crossed red lines. Afghanistan should not be looked at like a country anymore, but various tribes, sub-tribes, and clans, all doing what is best for them, and we should be dealing with them accordingly.
I agree, economically empowering the Afghans at this stage is a fools errand. The Afghans have a seemingly endless supply of young men willing to fight that they ought to be putting into mining and farming but they don’t for their own sakes, so who are we to keep recommending solutions when they won’t help themselves. We can bring a horse to water but can’t make it drink.
So instead of playing whack a mole, we would be better suited by reinforcing the border, putting up a concrete wall in the worst effected areas and giving our troops MRAPs and better forts with remote gun and remote automatic grenade launchers, as well as heavy guided mortars.
Also for the time being, we should strictly enforce our border checkpoints, especially to screen out any potential threats, building field hospitals on the border, so domestic and international aid organizations can provide humanitarian healthcare on the border, without having to allow people to travel into Pakistan. Also, setting up trading markets in border posts, so traders from either side don’t have to move across the border.
In the context of history, Afghans have made raids across what is now the border for hundreds of years, so what has best worked, based on how far I am into the book, is strong static defenses and local Pashtun troops able to repulse Afghans trying to take territory. Reports the Pakistan Army is going to start procuring more remote gun systems is encouraging for the defense of the border.
A strong QRF force (including attack helicopters and transport helicopters, a highly effective technique in last 40 years of wars in Afghanistan) and intelligence network are also very necessary to eliminate militants in the moment and follow them back to their leadership when their corpses are processed for intel.
P.S. if all this is in place, and the Afghans see the resolve of Pakistan, we can then ease up on travel restrictions after some time from a position of layered security. Also, I still believe Pakistan must do this itself. It can not allow foreign troops in Pakistan, because this is basically part of a Pashtun cultural civil war, and foreign troops will delegitimize the entire efforts on our part. If Drone strike or helicopter raids need to be carried out, they should be done by the PAF and Pakistani troops, respectively. This approach will also make it easier for the tribes in Afghanistan to distance themselves from foreign militant groups like Daesh.
I'll paste what I suggested earlier for what I think has the highest chances of truly stabilising the region so we can put our entire focus onto economic growth:
a) Bring a Tajik government to power in Afghanistan who is not hell bent on expansionism or conflict with Pakistan. They could truly control terror elements that emanate from Afghanistan for us, given they have the military capabilities. They could suppress the group that has these goals, secure the border from their own side. They could eradicate any problematic elements on their side.
b) 10KM buffer zone ingressing into Afghan territory, and make that a no man's land - anyone who enters is a valid target for neutralisation. (Several factors to be considered and how far to ingress due to terrain)
Incredibly unlikely and questionable:
c) Take mass funding from somewhere and occupy vast territories of Afghanistan and use extreme force to take it under your control. This one is problematic and would probably require US/Chinese support but if you take it under your control - it ends the core purpose of expansionism and you can use brute extreme force on any problematic elements.
(It's easy to make dubious counter-claims to justify it, or provoke them where you can justify it.)
Ideally this here is our true path to secure the western border.Afghanistan should not be looked at like a country anymore, but various tribes, sub-tribes, and clans, all doing what is best for them, and we should be dealing with them accordingly.
Do everything we can internally like previously suggested in regards to a potential buffer zone, swift deportations, increasing COIN capabilities, maximum border surveillance & security at high-risk areas, building facilities like hospitals & markets close to the border, etc.
But the real solution will be using their diversity of interests to our advantage - and our natural allies will be Tajiks who are the only group that don't care about hostilities with Pakistan.
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