Armitage on Pakistan's Tactical Nukes & Afghanistan's Future

[UmarJustice]

Best Defense: Do you think Pakistan turned against the United States in Afghanistan in 2005? What makes you think that?

Richard Armitage: "When I was deputy secretary [of state], from 2001 to February 2005, I looked constantly for information that the Pakistanis were aiding the Taliban.... I did see liaison, but I could not find" strong evidence of more.

"2005, if you look at casualties [in the Afghan war]. There was the beginning of a sharp rise. I believe two things happened. The Talibs started digging up their weapons and the Pakistanis thought, Maybe the Americans will prove short of breath, and so maybe we should keep our hand in.

"There was a background to this. From our point of view, it was black and white. From a Pakistani point of view, it wasn't. In their view, we are a very unfaithful partner, with four or five divorces since 1947. So in the back of their minds is always, When are they going to cut and run?"

BD: How does that inform your view of the current situation?

Armitage: "My present view of the situation is that the Pakistan government is persuaded of the ultimate ability of the Taliban to form a deal with the Afghan government, with a rough return to corners -- the Tajik in the north, Pashtun in the south and east, the Hazaras in the middle getting kicked by everybody, and so on.

"I think in addition, Pakistan dramatically increased its nuclear arsenal after 2008-2009. They fear that we will swoop in and take them.

"With India, they now are looking at tactical nuclear weapons." [Their fear, Armitage said, is that if there is another Mumbai-like attack, India will respond with a corps-sized attack on Pakistan.] "Tactical nukes is what you'd use against a corps." [This might provoke India to escalate further.] "But Pakistan would say that its tactical nukes would deter that."

BD: I saw today (Monday) that 3 SAMs were reported intercepted near the Pakistani border. What do you make of that?

Armitage: If it were true, "That would be seen as a very unfriendly act," one directed not against Afghan forces but against our airpower. "I'd be skeptical of that" report -- it more likely is MANPADs than larger SAMs.

BD: As the United States tries to draw down its presence in Afghanistan and turn over security to Afghan forces, what do you expect Pakistan to try to do?

Armitage: "I think they will remain on the trajectory they are on" -- that is, supporting Talibs in the south and east, and keeping an eye on Indian (and possibly Russian) dealing with the Tajiks.

If internal unrest grows in Pakistan, "they may have to spend a little more time at home," but still will likely remain on the same trajectory in Afghanistan.

BD: If you had lunch with President Obama today, what would you tell him about the Afghan war and about Pakistan?

Armitage: "Twenty-five years from now, Mr. President, I can assure you there will be a nation called Afghanistan, with much the same borders and the same rough demographic makeup. I probably couldn't say that about Pakistan."

On the Afghan war, "I would say, Mr. President, it is not worth one more limb." Perhaps just leave enough for counterterror missions and maybe some trainers.

The Best Defense Interview: Armitage on Pakistan's Tactical Nukes, Afghanistan's Future, and Why We Should Withdraw Now | The Best Defense

 

[OrionHunter]

"With India, they now are looking at tactical nuclear weapons." Their fear, Armitage said, is that if there is another Mumbai-like attack, India will respond with a corps-sized attack on Pakistan. "Tactical nukes is what you'd use against a corps." This might provoke India to escalate further. "But Pakistan would say that its tactical nukes would deter that."

And that ladies and gentlemen is the biggest mistake in PA's thought process. I don't think they have read India's nuclear doctrine which very clearly lays out that even if a tactical nuke is used against Indian assets, India will respond with full force of its nuclear arsenal. Not only would there be a counter force response but a counter value strike (counter city as some would call it).

Therefore Pakistan using tactical nukes under the impression that a nuclear exchange with India would be a localized affair is way off the mark and a bad idea. There would be no graduated response from the Indian side. It would be total all out nuclear war with India responding with all its nuclear assets.

 

[iajj]

Armitage: "Twenty-five years from now, Mr. President, I can assure you there will be a nation called Afghanistan, with much the same borders and the same rough demographic makeup. I probably couldn't say that about Pakistan."

evil designs against pakistan, not afghanistan, were, are, and always will be angloamericans' true purpose of stirring up trouble in afghanistan

 

[muse]

A few responses to this thread - but as usual at Defense.pk, they seem to miss the forest for the trees - The Indian focused on tactical nukes, the Chinese get an A for reading and comprehension, while the Pakistanis, well, less said the better

 

[Jango]

And that ladies and gentlemen is the biggest mistake in PA's thought process. I don't think they have read India's nuclear doctrine which very clearly lays out that even if a tactical nuke is used against Indian assets, India will respond with full force of its nuclear arsenal. Not only would there be a counter force response but a counter value strike (counter city as some would call it).

Therefore Pakistan using tactical nukes under the impression that a nuclear exchange with India would be a localized affair is way off the mark and a bad idea. There would be no graduated response from the Indian side. It would be total all out nuclear war with India responding with all its nuclear assets.

And that is the exact reason why there won't be a Corps sized attack in the first place.

 

[surya kiran]

A few responses to this thread - but as usual at Defense.pk, they seem to miss the forest for the trees - The Indian focused on tactical nukes, the Chinese get an A for reading and comprehension, while the Pakistanis, well, less said the better

I have held this view for a long time, that Iran US relations is only a matter of time before it improves. The next few months will prove me right. As far as Pak is concerned, the US view, in my humble opinion is that of first line cannon fodder for Afghanistan. How? Who financed the initial resistance to soviets? SA and the US. Who bore the brunt? Pakistan. Who abandoned the strategy? US. Who held on and paid the price? Pakistan. The fast Pak realises that it needs to dismantle the terror system it initially created for the US, the better for everybody. The only people who can do this? The PA. The people who need to ensure the PA does it? The GoP.

Anyways, once the current role is fulfilled its back to sanctions and what not. And the only thing they will need for this is a small excuse. With the financial deficit looming, the GoP will be forced to go in for more debt financing, which will mean more kowtowing the American line. The faster the Pakistanis realise that the better its for everybody in the region.

 

[That Guy]

A few responses to this thread - but as usual at Defense.pk, they seem to miss the forest for the trees - The Indian focused on tactical nukes, the Chinese get an A for reading and comprehension, while the Pakistanis, well, less said the better

A few incidences don't indicate trends. Yes, it is true that every nationalist will look for things in the articles that relate to his or her own nation, but in the end, the topic remains the same.

 

[Cyberian]

Is Armitage still alive? I thought that dinosaur was a fossil by now.

 

[Slayer786]

It is an American fantasy that in the next 20-25 years Pakistan disintegrates. It is upto us to show how wrong they are. This is not going to happen easily. A lot of enemies are planning this scenario. Pakistan has many enemies and very few friends. We should forget internal disagreements about who we are and concentrate on making Pakistan stronger. We dont have to wait for the govt to do something for the society. Try to do something yourself. If we all start taking action to uplift our society then others will follow.
The enemies are eying Pakistan, lets make them work really hard until they realize their folly and leave us alone.

Pakistan First.

Pakistan Zindabad.

 

[Tehmasib]

Urdu version is here =

 

[Pabbi]

I have held this view for a long time, that Iran US relations is only a matter of time before it improves. The next few months will prove me right. As far as Pak is concerned, the US view, in my humble opinion is that of first line cannon fodder for Afghanistan. How? Who financed the initial resistance to soviets? SA and the US. Who bore the brunt? Pakistan. Who abandoned the strategy? US. Who held on and paid the price? Pakistan. The fast Pak realises that it needs to dismantle the terror system it initially created for the US, the better for everybody. The only people who can do this? The PA. The people who need to ensure the PA does it? The GoP.

Anyways, once the current role is fulfilled its back to sanctions and what not. And the only thing they will need for this is a small excuse. With the financial deficit looming, the GoP will be forced to go in for more debt financing, which will mean more kowtowing the American line. The faster the Pakistanis realise that the better its for everybody in the region.

Keep having dreams.

 

[surya kiran]

Keep having dreams.

Which part of the conversation? Could you please point out?

 

[muse]

It is an American fantasy that in the next 20-25 years Pakistan disintegrates. It is upto us to show how wrong they are. This is not going to happen easily. A lot of enemies are planning this scenario. Pakistan has many enemies and very few friends. We should forget internal disagreements about who we are and concentrate on making Pakistan stronger. We dont have to wait for the govt to do something for the society. Try to do something yourself. If we all start taking action to uplift our society then others will follow.
The enemies are eying Pakistan, lets make them work really hard until they realize their folly and leave us alone.

Pakistan First.

Pakistan Zindabad.

US is no enemy of Pakistan, Pakistan is not up to the standard of being an Enemy for the US. Because it is such an immensely powerful country, US policy seeks the furtherance of her national interests as they are perceived at any given time, by bending the policies of other states to further US interests - in our region those interests include the disruption of terrorist networks, keeping open sea lanes to commerce, ensuring supplies of hydrocarbon energy at REASONABLE prices, the protection of allies and ensuring US preeminence (commercial, military and cultural) - Pakistan cannot seriously negatively effect any of these objectives and so Pakistan is not an enemy, on the other hand, it's no friend either.

Pakistan's enemies are inside Pakistan, it's major enemy is the ideology of Islamism, that the state itself perpetuates and which is mothers milk to the Army, it corrupts the mind and spirit of nation, robbing it of it's history, culture and even it's future.

 

[RazorMC]

US is no enemy of Pakistan, Pakistan is not up to the standard of being an Enemy for the US. Because it is such an immensely powerful country, US policy seeks the furtherance of her national interests as they are perceived at any given time, by bending the policies of other states to further US interests - in our region those interests include the disruption of terrorist networks, keeping open sea lanes to commerce, ensuring supplies of hydrocarbon energy at REASONABLE prices, the protection of allies and ensuring US preeminence (commercial, military and cultural) - Pakistan cannot seriously negatively effect any of these objectives and so Pakistan is not an enemy, on the other hand, it's no friend either.

Pakistan's enemies are inside Pakistan, it's major enemy is the ideology of Islamism, that the state itself perpetuates and which is mothers milk to the Army, it corrupts the mind and spirit of nation, robbing it of it's history, culture and even it's future.

Agree to most of the text. We are victims of our own visions of grandeur and imagining that somehow the US can be threatened by Pakistan's nukes or cotton exports etc etc.

Islam, on the other hand, is a personal choice for millions. And those millions are where the soldiers come from. Plus Islam offers some link to the Muslim nations without which Pakistan's disastrous foreign and internal policies would have left her utterly friendless.

-- RazorMC

 

[RazorMC]

I have held this view for a long time, that Iran US relations is only a matter of time before it improves. The next few months will prove me right. As far as Pak is concerned, the US view, in my humble opinion is that of first line cannon fodder for Afghanistan. How? Who financed the initial resistance to soviets? SA and the US. Who bore the brunt? Pakistan. Who abandoned the strategy? US. Who held on and paid the price? Pakistan. The fast Pak realises that it needs to dismantle the terror system it initially created for the US, the better for everybody. The only people who can do this? The PA. The people who need to ensure the PA does it? The GoP.

Anyways, once the current role is fulfilled its back to sanctions and what not. And the only thing they will need for this is a small excuse. With the financial deficit looming, the GoP will be forced to go in for more debt financing, which will mean more kowtowing the American line. The faster the Pakistanis realise that the better its for everybody in the region.

Good analysis. Except that this view is largely ignored by the majority of Pakistanis. We have become accustomed to extremes in the sense that a portion of the population loves being dominated by American wishes while another portion loathes it to bits (Both love dollars though). Moderation is just a far-fetched dream atm.

-- RazorMC