Its interesting topic. Here are my thoughts.
I would like to divide my post in sections below:
Ideology:
Time has proved that both Pakistani Taliban (PT or TTP) and Afghan Taliban (AT) are ideologically the same. In other words, they are the two heads of the same monster. This analogy is based on the following undeniable, observed and reported facts:
1. They both adhere to extremist Deobandi and Salafi or Wahabi school of thoughts.
2. During the rule of AT, they denied women education, beat them in streets, killed those who did not follow their instructions, set up their own so called Shariat courts where some rural idiot who would have not gone under the laborious work of Islamic scholarship issue death sentences, they forbid clean shave and so barber shops were closed, they closed down CD shops and banned music and other arts, they destroyed archeological heritages like Buddha statues, they did not have any educated social scientists or economist in their ranks, they did not allow any opposition of views, they rule by the harsh use of force. The same is true about PT when they ruled in Swat and until recently in SW. Opponents were slaughtered, clean shave was forbidden, girls’ education was forbidden, CD shops destroyed, artists either killed or threatened, Shariat courts established, women beaten up in streets, suppressed any opposing view with harsh use of force. They also blew up the Buddha statue in Miandam, Swat.
3. Both AT and PT lack religious scholarship.
4. Both get support and training from Al Qaeda.
5. AT wants to establish sharia rule in Afghanistan while PT wants the same in Pakistan, both have expressed this goal in their repeated statements. This Sharia rule is based on the same ideology.
Having said that lets see their relations in the past and present:
Past:
PT has always supported AT. They were often class mates in the seminaries of Pakistan. Baituallah had fought alongside AT and had visited Afghanistan several times. Fazlullah and Nek Muhammad did the same. Other foot soldiers also used to go to Afghanistan to fight along side their brothers in Afghanistan. Till 2001 when Pakistan took a U turn on AT, it was quite common and accepted norm in Pakistan to help AT. After 2003, AT when finding it hard to cross over to Afghanistan started to focus on Pakistan. The agenda remained the same for both the organizations. PT was doing AT’s work in Pakistan: 1) to force GoP to abandon its support in the War on Terror; 2) to provide strategic depth to AT; 3) to try to cut the supply line of NATO troops in Pakistan; 4) and lastly which came very late, is to impose Sharia in Pakistan too. This last change of heart was not something new. There were reasons for this: 1) Al Qaeda, this whole coordination was being done by al Qaeda. AQ was provided brains, training, money and weapons for strengthening PT. AQ’s found fertile ground for its objectives in Tribal Areas in special and Pakistan in general. AQ gave them hope that they could in fact take over Pakistan. Their moral went up by the repeated failures of PA in SW and Swat. It is the goal of AQ to take over at least one Islamic country in order for bringing Caliphate system. Readers can refer to Syed Qutub’s book for this. They had tried this in Sudan but failed, then in Afghanistan and lately they saw this opportunity in Pakistan; 2) power syndrome: some PT leaders like Nek Muhammad, Baituallah and Fazlullah saw their rise to power and tasted the fruits of ultimate power. When they started to enjoy power they became corrupt of their original ideology and wanted to perpetuate their power. But relationship between AP and TP although reduced was still there. This reduction was caused by: 1) US drones hovering over their heads all the time; 2) PA blocking their way on Pakistani side while NATO on the Afghan side; 3) AQ’s role in focusing them on Pakistani front in the new geo strategic situation; 4) leadership did not want to lose power by sending men and ammunition to Afghanistan. This was largely true for TTP.
Present:
The present situation is very complex and need though analysis. In my view, to untangle this, lets divide PT. One groups is TTP: 1) TTP for various reasons I cited above lost direct interest in Afghanistan and focused on Pakistan. But they have repeatedly said that they want to help their Afghan brothers by attacking PA to stop support of War on Terror. They attack NATO supply line, and attack GoP and PA to pressurize it to stop support for WoT and stop operations in Tribal Areas so that they could do whatever they want. 2) Al Qaeda is the link between TTP and AT. AQ taught them making explosives like IEDs, suicide vests, landmines, Car bombs to TTP as well as AT. AQ had perfected these skills in Iraq and brought them to these areas. AQ is the mind behind both AP and TTP. Some TTP guys can still cross over to Afghanistan in order to escape operation by PA. They can get shelter at AT. AT tried to dissociate itself from TTP when it saw that it will be finally knocked down by Pakistan and they it will lose its strategic depth in Pakistan. In fact, in the past, not long ago, they called in TTP to come over to Afghanistan.
Other Talibans, under the umbrella of TTP, like those in Bajaur, Mohmand have close ties with AT in Kunar and Nuristan. Qari Zaiur Rehmand who is the commander of those areas have clearly showed his support for them. There is active coordination among them.
If you minus TTP from PT then you are left with guys like Gul Bahadur, Haqqani, Maulvi Nazir, who still help AP. And this is the second group. it is mostly based in North Waziristan. These guys have peace deals with GoP under which they will not attack PA as long as PA doesn’t interfere in their affairs. They openly support AT.
The third group is the independent or volunteers ‘jihadis’. They also include some foreigners. This group doesn’t know much of the complexity of the situation but they want to carry out ‘jihad’. They, if, get into contact with LeT are most probably pushed into Afghanistan or if get in touch with Gul Bahadur and other guys, again to Afghanistan, but if come in touch with Ghazir force, LeJ, SSP or TTP may end up with TTP. They are free swingers and can offer their services anywhere in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Future Scenarios:
I will try to predict some scenarios in the future:
1) Pakistan remains partner in WoT, takes on TTP and will defeat it. But terror incidents will continue for some years in different parts by splinter groups and members of TTP. The real test will come when the US will put pressure on Pakistan to take on those Taliban like Gul Bahadur and Maulvi Nazir. Pakistan will either have to convince them to not cross the border or will take action. The first case can be achieved if Pakistan convincingly defeat TTP which will give message to these Taliban that they can be routed if they don’t listen. In the second case, another front will be opened and will take a heavy toll on Pakistanis. Political support may dwindle for PA. and those Taliban may also resort to terrorism in Pakistan. It means we are talking anther four to five years of operations and violence.
2) NATO and ISAF leaves, and AT takes over. This would be a nightmare for Pakistan. Their previous stubbornness have shown that AT will not serve Pakistan’s interests. They did not listen to Pakistan then in cases of handover of OBL, not accepting Durand line as international border and not listening to Pakistan request to not destroy Buddha statues. It will mean for Pakistan that everything is back to square one. AT ideology will spillover to Pakistan. They have a lot of sympathizers and supporters in Pakistan who will become their assets. These assets will get their strategic depth in Afghanistan. They will demand the same system in Pakistan. Why would they not wish the same system for themselves which they supported for Afghans. But this scenario is unlikely to happen.
3) ISAF and NATO pulls out and Afghan government is able to take affairs into its hands. AT take part in process, and hardcore elements are separated and hunted down. They are also denied sanctuaries in Pakistan. This scenario is unlikely to happen in near future.
4) The likely scenario would be, if NATO pulls out, bloody civil war. Taliban will not be able to take over Afghanistan again: 1) they have resorted to terrorist activities and no terror movement has so far been able to succeed in the world; 2) AT do not represent minority. The fact that their who support comes from Pashtuns who are 40 per cent. And they have hardly an support of the majority of the Pashtuns. Which means their support comes down to less than 20 percent. In the past and in the present, thanks to their harsh policies, they have alienated much of the Afghans. They do have some support in different pockets and their they still terrorise people and make them support them. It is just like the same TTP, which represent less than five percent of Swat or SW but took effective control of it. 3) World will not allow again Afghanistan to be ruled by these barbarians.
The civil war will have very adverse effects on Pakistan. Refugees, trade, terror, gun culture, opium, war economy, al Qaeda all will come together to play havoc in Pakistan.
Options for Pakistan and ISAF
For Pakistan:
To make a comprehensive counter terrorism strategy including prevention, preempting, and coordination. All kinds of extremists shall be denounced and effective measures shall be taken both on ideological, political and military fronts to tackle extremists. Sound coordination shall be established with ISAF and NATO. Capacity building of police, FC and intelligence agencies shall be done on war footing. Borders with Afghanistan shall be fenced.
For ISAF and NATO:
Troops shall be increased to give AT final blow. ANA shall be strengthened and development shall be achieved on fast track basis. They should help Pakistan in capacity building and technological needs. Once, ANA and Afghan police are made capable of fighting AT they should start phased withdrawal.
I would be glad to have your comments and criticism. But pl avoid cheap shots and argue with sound analysis and logic.
Thanks for your time!