Are Imran Khan’s Days as Pakistan’s Prime Minister Numbered?

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

So what?

No one's gonna vote for him just coz he "tackled the coronavirus" well. Lol.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1231455058199547904

The actual results

1. The performance of a political party in dealing with major crises has an impact on how people will vote. The COVID-19 pandemic is far from over, but if the polling continues to show that a majority of people approve of the way in which the PTI has handled the crisis, that will play a part in the elections.

2. Polling this far out from the elections is pretty meaningless, but if you're going to bring it up, there are a lot of variables that play a part, the government's handling of COVID-19 being the biggest one currently.

 

[Syed1.]

Election dates can change, and there does not need to be an election for IK to be removed as PM per se. In the event of the latter, someone within his own party will most likely be his successor.

Parliamentary arithmetic both makes his government weak and but also ironically leaves him some hope of surviving any vote of no confidence, opposition arithmetic is nowhere near enough either. If IK's allies move, then there's a slight chance that a no confidence motion might work. But realistically it might take at least a handful of people within PTI to betray IK and sink their knives in his back for him to be taken out.

Irrespective of how much you desire, Nawaz and Shahbaz or NS's daughter won't be PM. Deal with it.

 

[Pak_Zindabad7]

Irrespective of how much you desire, Nawaz and Shahbaz or NS's daughter won't be PM. Deal with it.

The current trends show that Shahbaz will.
Deal with it.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

The current trends show that Shahbaz will.
Deal with it.

Current trends show nothing of the sort, and even if they did, are meaningless this far out from the elections.

 

[Jungibaaz]

So what?

No one's gonna vote for him just coz he "tackled the coronavirus" well. Lol.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1231455058199547904

The actual results

These numbers are actually really solid for IK and PTI. His support is showing resillience, one might expect them to poll well below the 2018 election level of 31.8%.

Despite the financial crisis, huge inflation rate, and early failure to deliver on the welfare state. And actually, while I agree that a poll on Covid response doesn't mean much on its own, usually a time of national crisis or war makes people to unite behind leadership, that might actually be boosting PTI's poll numbers right now.

 

[Syed1.]

The current trends show that Shahbaz will.
Deal with it.

Hahah ok... if Pakistanis wanted to be ruled by a looter and plunderer it will be their choice. Currently he is begging the establishment and licking their boots, but not getting any answer to his calls. I'm dealing with it adequately.

 

[Jungibaaz]

Irrespective of how much you desire, Nawaz and Shahbaz or NS's daughter won't be PM. Deal with it.

I was talking about IK's chances of surviving a no confidence measure. And I said his odds are decent as long as some in his own party doesn't betray him. Why respond with irrelevant nonsense?

 

[Syed1.]

I was talking about IK's chances of surviving a no confidence measure. And I said his odds are decent as long as some in his own party doesn't betray him. Why respond with irrelevant nonsense?

Why is there even a discussion of a no-confidence motion? What has IK done wrong that he should be removed? Your political loyalties are well known and I've answered your post considering where you are coming from. IK will remain PM till 2023, that was the crux of my original post till you butted in and starting talking about no-confidence bull shit. In 2023 you will get a chance to vote for your favourite "khata hai tu lagata bhi hai" types. Good luck in your endeavors.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

One other thing to consider - regardless of how much importance you want to give to the polls right now, the PTI is clearly and comfortably one of the 2 largest/strongest political parties in the country right now, which is a far cry from before the 2018 elections.

That said, the PTI needs to deliver as much as possible on its agenda and get reelected to cement it's position. The other two political parties have staying power (unfortunately) in their respective strongholds of Punjab & Sindh by virtue of being political dynasties. Imran Khan has no political successor from his family ready to be next in line, so the second rung of leadership really needs to be groomed and given a chance to shine. The PTI has several impressive politicians in its ranks, but I'm not sure any single one has really captured the imagination of a large part of Pakistan (Asad Umar perhaps?).

A comparison, in terms of strengthening non-dynastic leadership, can be made with the BJP in India, but the problem there is that the second line of BJP leadership is popular because of being extremist religious ideologues - and those are not leadership characteristics that appear to have mass appeal in Pakistan.

If not the BJP, because of its dependence on extremist ideologues, then a comparison can be made with the Jamaat-e-Islami in Pakistan in terms of their strong grassroots organization and base. A combination of the PTI's centrist, pro-poor message and JI's grassroots organization could possibly help the PTI overcome the lack of dynastic leadership to a degree.

Why is there even a discussion of a no-confidence motion? What has IK done wrong that he should be removed? Your political loyalties are well known and I've answered your post considering where you are coming from. IK will remain PM till 2023, that was the crux of my original post till you butted in and starting talking about no-confidence bull shit. In 2023 you will get a chance to vote for your favourite "khata hai tu lagata bhi hai" types. Good luck in your endeavors.

I think Jungibaaz was just discussing various possibilities - he's not endorsing a no-confidence motion.

 

[Sheepistanis]

nobody cares

Seriously, the best comment .

 

[El Sidd]

Seriously, the best comment .

do not tell immie this. he starts crying these days on everything

 

[Jungibaaz]

Why is there even a discussion of a no-confidence motion?

Look at the thread title. Do you know what the most common vehicle is for ousting a sitting PM before a full term (and before the next election) in most democracies? Vote of no confidence and early elections.

I shouldn't have to point out such basic things for you.

You perhaps unknowingly made two assumptions in your post; that elections can only happen in 2023 and not before, and that this would be the only way that IK might be leaving premiership. I simply stated that when people talk about IK's days being numbered, logically it makes sense to assume that they mean before 2023, whether you agree with them or not, or whether you think his days are numbered or not. Hence the two ways that is possible is either an early election (pending a simple act of parliament), or with a no confidence measure. In both of which I have said that arithmetic might favour IK's side, so no need for your to get so upset.

Please use some sense next time and try to follow along with what's being discussed and why. Thanks.

 

[Sheepistanis]

do not tell immie this. he starts crying these days on everything

I don't know about him shedding tears publicly, but his fandom definitely will shred anyone to pieces who dare as much mock him.

 

[El Sidd]

I don't know about him shedding tears publicly, but his fanfare definitely will shred anyone to pieces who dare as much mock him.

Billo and Immie sitting in a tree. B H U T T I N G

 

[Sheepistanis]

Billo and Immie sitting in a tree. B H U T T I N G

Gear up man, an assault is imminent.