Anyone willing to be PM after 2018 election, when external debt, liabilities touch $89 billion

[RoadRunner401]

One who pulls this nation out of this Manhoos Soodi kala chakar will indeed be the true leader of Pakistan.

It's not as easy as this sound, but a policy shift at the center is required, bringing in undocumented parts of the economy(Transport, retail& wholesale) into documented will add to GDP.

policy shift, more export oriented and punishing duties on imports of luxury goods, plus the encouragement of local production is required and needed.

Some of the borrowed money did go towards energy producing plants plus other infrastructure once complete will pay the dividend.

Above are some simple steps that will reduce the debt to GDP ratio and make debt more manageable. so IK does have options.

 

[HAIDER]

It's not as easy as this sound, but a policy shift at the center is required, bringing in undocumented parts of the economy(Transport, retail& wholesale) into documented will add to GDP.

policy shift, more export oriented and punishing duties on imports of luxury goods, plus the encouragement of local production is required and needed.

Some of the borrowed money did go towards energy producing plants plus other infrastructure once complete will pay the dividend.

Above are some simple steps that will reduce the debt to GDP ratio and make debt more manageable. so IK does have options.

Any coming govt need a good team of technocrats . Both govt of Nawaz and Zardari wasted billions of dollar only on power generation projects. They initiated those project with inflated forecasting , later when those project reach the execution point , govt already used more then 50 percent of provided funds for that particular projects . There are hundreds of project , which are victim of bad govt planning.

 

[RoadRunner401]

Any coming govt need a good team of technocrats . Both govt of Nawaz and Zardari wasted billions of dollar only on power generation projects. They initiated those project with inflated forecasting , later when those project reach the execution point , govt already used more then 50 percent of provided funds for that particular projects . There are hundreds of project , which are victim of bad govt planning.

Good news!

Zardari or Nawaz got nothing to show for as they did nothing and can't blame the military for their corruption their chances of making a comeback are Zero, yes it cost some money, but trash is gone for good.

 

[Fledgingwings]

It's not as easy as this sound, but a policy shift at the center is required, bringing in undocumented parts of the economy(Transport, retail& wholesale) into documented will add to GDP.

policy shift, more export oriented and punishing duties on imports of luxury goods, plus the encouragement of local production is required and needed.

Some of the borrowed money did go towards energy producing plants plus other infrastructure once complete will pay the dividend.

Above are some simple steps that will reduce the debt to GDP ratio and make debt more manageable. so IK does have options.

Exactly !

 

[ziaulislam]

Sir buhat kaam ki baat batai hai aam ne.. yeh hoga kaisay? It is not a question to be answered in an examination hall.

Simple copy what mushi did...when he came over the debt was 86%he brought it down to 56%by doubling the GDP ..he also brought a new law to enforce a limit if 60% which has been Ignored by current govt..basically the govt is breaking the law by taking more loans !!!! But who cares about the law

this is funny.

Anyway Imran Khan knows about economy as much as any other Pakistani. This is why people like him, he talk like any ignorant Pakistani out there.

Debt isn't bad, depend where it was spent and GDP to dept ratio. CPEC debt is not bad at all...

N-league wasted billions of $ trying to keep rupee artificially over valued. Because common Pakistani is stupid and believe value of rupee must stay low for reason even if it hurt economy. Nawaz who's another ignorant and intellectually dumb politician said rupee value decreased because he was removed.

He is a politicans but listen to him in more detail you will notice he is more well versed than Mr Nawaz and even Mr dar...who were complete idoits

On this forum go back 2 years and see what I was saying exactly that happened..exports have been trending down for 5 years now..yes trending down that didn't even happened in PPPP era when they were going up

It's not as easy as this sound, but a policy shift at the center is required, bringing in undocumented parts of the economy(Transport, retail& wholesale) into documented will add to GDP.

policy shift, more export oriented and punishing duties on imports of luxury goods, plus the encouragement of local production is required and needed.

Some of the borrowed money did go towards energy producing plants plus other infrastructure once complete will pay the dividend.

Above are some simple steps that will reduce the debt to GDP ratio and make debt more manageable. so IK does have options.

IK is in trouble debt is way more because it doesnt count 1300 billion circular debt more than half was accumulated by PML N and another 700 billion in PIA and steel mills
That is 7% of GDP so real figure is near 75%..give another 5 years and PML N will bankrupt Pakistan

This is not new or surprising...I was kid when back in day Mr Nawaz bankrupted Pakistan and took the debt to historically high 86%..luckily mushi came and brought it down to 55% PPPP kept it around 60% and achieved a decent grow 4% with better fiscal dicipline..there only error was not allowing imported coal and fully allowing only local thar coal..this let loadshedding spiral out of control ofcourse this was done to benefit sindh..LNG was too expensive back than..otherwise crisis of 1990s was solved by PPPP by allowing IPPs


But Pakistanis have poor memory I believe ...
Comparing all facts and figures will mean that had PMLN had tuff days of international financial crisis, all time high oil prices and historical high floods it would have done way worse than PPPP

No wonder we are going for bigger 16b bail out this time

PMLN failure is circular debt, PIA, steel mills AND lack of any reforms what so ever in power sector, keeping artificial high rupee and killing exports , buying expensive LNG, refusing to allow oil blocks in KPK high return areas , high value added taxes on exports, in direct taxation and giving too many incentives too Chinese investors yet not giving similar incentives to other investors

 

[El Sidd]

@Bratva Mila Koi neeli ankhon wala. Time kam ha muqabla sakhat hai

 

[defence_analyst]

He is a politicans but listen to him in more detail you will notice he is more well versed than Mr Nawaz and even Mr dar...who were complete idoits

On this forum go back 2 years and see what I was saying exactly that happened..exports have been trending down for 5 years now..yes trending down that didn't even happened in PPPP era when they were going up

I mean have you seen his interview? He's as well versed as Nawaz if not worse. Only Zardari sound some what intelligent out of 3. Exports were tending down because of stupid N-league policies. Especially keeping rupee value artificially overvalued by dumping billions of dollars in open market. Imports hit all time high and exports low because of that.

Now things are bit better. Exports are growing at 30% and imports will eventually start decreasing because of higher cost. But for rupee to settle down we need to do much more. For once curb imports of unncesary things as soon as possible. Get rid of oil power plants and with it reduce oil imports.

But if Imran Khan want to follow same policy of keeping rupee overvalued just for sake of Pakistani public opinion then Pakistan will keep digging same hole.

 

[ziaulislam]

I mean have you seen his interview? He's as well versed as Nawaz if not worse. Only Zardari sound some what intelligent out of 3. Exports were tending down because of stupid N-league policies. Especially keeping rupee value artificially overvalued by dumping billions of dollars in open market. Imports hit all time high and exports low because of that.

Now things are bit better. Exports are growing at 30% and imports will eventually start decreasing because of higher cost. But for rupee to settle down we need to do much more. For once curb imports of unncesary things as soon as possible. Get rid of oil power plants and with it reduce oil imports.

But if Imran Khan want to follow same policy of keeping rupee overvalued just for sake of Pakistani public opinion then Pakistan will keep digging same hole.

I doubt he will..the devaluation is already done and I trust Asad Umar is not that big of idoit

Asad Umar is very passionate about privatization that alone will solve half of the problem

But only time will tell

Cars, oil, steel, chemicals can go very quickly that alone will reduce it by 7-8 billion each year
Plus zero tax the exports

 

[ziaulislam]

The Chinese will just take ownership of the projects though.



Simple. More debt will pay previous debt.

Which projects..nearly all are private sector project that is they are already owners and are building it via BOT, i.e they will hand over it to Pakistan in 20 years..can you name a few govt owned projects...? There is only 1 project that is Karachi nuclear plants...which has cost less than similar Indians and bangladeshis projects

Every country takes debt...CAD has nothing to do with debt ..debt is not a issue..exports and imports are

Key is to outrun the debt via accelrated growth

 

[Bratva]

@Bratva Mila Koi neeli ankhon wala. Time kam ha muqabla sakhat hai

I dont care about Pakistan and Pakistani AWAM. Neeli ankho wali mil jaye bas mjhay koi

 

[RoadRunner401]

IK is in trouble debt is way more because it doesnt count 1300 billion circular debt more than half was accumulated by PML N and another 700 billion in PIA and steel mills
That is 7% of GDP so real figure is near 75%..give another 5 years and PML N will bankrupt Pakistan

This is not new or surprising...I was kid when back in day Mr Nawaz bankrupted Pakistan and took the debt to historically high 86%..luckily mushi came and brought it down to 55% PPPP kept it around 60% and achieved a decent grow 4% with better fiscal dicipline..there only error was not allowing imported coal and fully allowing only local thar coal..this let loadshedding spiral out of control ofcourse this was done to benefit sindh..LNG was too expensive back than..otherwise crisis of 1990s was solved by PPPP by allowing IPPs


But Pakistanis have poor memory I believe ...
Comparing all facts and figures will mean that had PMLN had tuff days of international financial crisis, all time high oil prices and historical high floods it would have done way worse than PPPP

No wonder we are going for bigger 16b bail out this time

PMLN failure is circular debt, PIA, steel mills AND lack of any reforms what so ever in power sector, keeping artificial high rupee and killing exports , buying expensive LNG, refusing to allow oil blocks in KPK high return areas , high value added taxes on exports, in direct taxation and giving too many incentives too Chinese investors yet not giving similar incentives to other investors

I am not familiar with all this, So i'll take your word for it, but the problem is what to do next, no point discussing the past.

We have a Circular debt problem (Circular debt occurs when one entity facing problems in its cash inflows holds back payments to its suppliers and creditors).

1) OUTSTANDING BILLS & PAYMENTS
Many entities,various private and public sectors are defaulted to pay huge electricity bills and other payments.

2) TARIFFS AND SUBSIDIES
Government is unable to pay the power tariffs subsidies to electricity companies.

3)LIQUIDITY TRAP
When people expected rate of return from investments insecurities and other assets become low,investments go down.Circular debt increases due to lack of supply of money in the market.


4)IMPORT AND EXPORT(TRADE BALANCE)
Higher amount of import leads the Federal reserves to be getting low which further leads the government to take loan from IMF(International Monetary Fund)and World Bank.


Here is my question to you:

1)Why did the PPP government guaranteed payments to private business and subsidized fuel supplies to IPP, we are not oil producing country.


Please feel free to correct me, if I am wrong here, My personal view, this is all a big scam In Pakistan created by Politicians and influential friends to make billions.

Here is why I think that's the case, lack of transparency. No financial and technical audits have been carried out with regards to payments received and paid by the power purchaser.
The transition of the power purchaser’s role from one public sector entity to the other without a legal and contractual trail has added to this non-transparency. The numbers of units that have been billed and paid by consumers are not required to be verified by independent sources, or subjected to regulatory checks.

There is almost no transparent probabilistic trend or comparative analysis that is analysing power plant generation, resource availability and transmission data at the relevant time to ensure checks and balances.

All these niceties have been taking place in a shroud of mystery as the Ministry of Water and Power and its allied entities — the transmission and distribution companies — are not susceptible to independent audit or oversight.

There is no legal definition of circular debt except that it is technically non-payment by the power purchaser for generated electricity.

generators get paid even for electricity they have not generated. Unavailable private power plants are paid by the power purchaser due to a lack of transparency, regulatory oversight and third party audit or field inspection of the generation facility.

A very large quantum of money is paid in terms of deemed capacity payments which means that even though consumers do not receive the energy they are still required to pay as if the plant was available for generation. That is why most private power plants declare themselves available..

2) Crown corporations are cost billions GOP doesn't have, so why not sell it or close it down

Because Crown Corporations are being used by politicians to reward party workers with jobs and other benefits


Conclusion, I am pretty sure IK will have Lots of surprises.

 

[ziaulislam]

I am not familiar with all this, So i'll take your word for it, but the problem is what to do next, no point discussing the past.

We have a Circular debt problem (Circular debt occurs when one entity facing problems in its cash inflows holds back payments to its suppliers and creditors).

1) OUTSTANDING BILLS & PAYMENTS
Many entities,various private and public sectors are defaulted to pay huge electricity bills and other payments.

2) TARIFFS AND SUBSIDIES
Government is unable to pay the power tariffs subsidies to electricity companies.

3)LIQUIDITY TRAP
When people expected rate of return from investments insecurities and other assets become low,investments go down.Circular debt increases due to lack of supply of money in the market.


4)IMPORT AND EXPORT(TRADE BALANCE)
Higher amount of import leads the Federal reserves to be getting low which further leads the government to take loan from IMF(International Monetary Fund)and World Bank.


Here is my question to you:

1)Why did the PPP government guaranteed payments to private business and subsidized fuel supplies to IPP, we are not oil producing country.


Please feel free to correct me, if I am wrong here, My personal view, this is all a big scam In Pakistan created by Politicians and influential friends to make billions.

Here is why I think that's the case, lack of transparency. No financial and technical audits have been carried out with regards to payments received and paid by the power purchaser.
The transition of the power purchaser’s role from one public sector entity to the other without a legal and contractual trail has added to this non-transparency. The numbers of units that have been billed and paid by consumers are not required to be verified by independent sources, or subjected to regulatory checks.

There is almost no transparent probabilistic trend or comparative analysis that is analysing power plant generation, resource availability and transmission data at the relevant time to ensure checks and balances.

All these niceties have been taking place in a shroud of mystery as the Ministry of Water and Power and its allied entities — the transmission and distribution companies — are not susceptible to independent audit or oversight.

There is no legal definition of circular debt except that it is technically non-payment by the power purchaser for generated electricity.

generators get paid even for electricity they have not generated. Unavailable private power plants are paid by the power purchaser due to a lack of transparency, regulatory oversight and third party audit or field inspection of the generation facility.

A very large quantum of money is paid in terms of deemed capacity payments which means that even though consumers do not receive the energy they are still required to pay as if the plant was available for generation. That is why most private power plants declare themselves available..

2) Crown corporations are cost billions GOP doesn't have, so why not sell it or close it down

Because Crown Corporations are being used by politicians to reward party workers with jobs and other benefits


Conclusion, I am pretty sure IK will have Lots of surprises.

1. Yes and No. Ipps get a VERY LUCRATIVE upfront tariff return of 15-20%.they can earn a good money...the calculation of upfront tariff is complicated and flawed ...in future it should competited bidding

IPPs are using furnace oil which inherently is expensive..they are also earnings huge interest on late payments but dont pay interest to PSO for late payments...
The solution is simple force IPPs to convert to LNG and NEVER ALLOW CIRCULAR debt to accumulate..ministries / provinces that dont pay should immediately lose there federal funding as federation has to pay huge interests
Other defaulters properties should be confiscated..problem is baluchistan heavy tube wells owned by strong politicians (200billion) sugar mills, industries and provincial ministries..domestic users are a very small neglible portion of this but it is the domestic consumers that pay interest surcharge
Replace large transformers with mini transformers with smart meters

2. Correct

 

[Yaseen1]

we need to stop spending on non profitable activities for some years and focus on profit generating spending.promote rapid industry growth by changing laws and electricity generation and waving off tax on electricity and fuel to industry.unnecessary spending and imports should be avoided until we pay half of this debt

 

[ziaulislam]

1. Force defaulters to pay
2. Tax small industry and small commercial avenues 10-15%
3. Decrease cor operate tax to 20-25%
4. Everyone buying foreign tickets, cars, houses should be audited by third party if FBR cant do it..punish FBR
5. Zero tax on exports, govt should take initiative in industry which is high volume import. Example is modern Refineries (ban old tech Refineries, no one should be allowed to use scrap Refineries) and steel mills
6. Privitze remove and jail people in PIA, steel mills, DESCOs which consume 2 trillion annually more than defence budget
7. Introduce solar tube wells and drip irrigation should be enforced in baluchistan to prevent water crisis in Quetta
8. Small dams that are pending need for investment immediately started..refer to WADA site 8-10 of these is equal to one large one
9. Bhasha Muda immediately should be built
10. Either expedite Chinese railway upgrade project or use the AB/WB offer..
11. All power projects should be competitive bidding
12.on external front opt for IMF loan and afterwards 3-5 billion in bonds to promp up foreign reserves
13. Transfer of technology should be encouraged and tax breaks for joint ventures..
14. Focus should be job creation
15. Move away from traditional to drip irrigation especially when it's very easy like in fruit trees
16. Massive education and health spending
17. Privatize everything
18. New cotton and rice variety of China with better yield should be forcefully introduced not voluntary
19. Convert kpk olive oil and new focus on canola, pulses and tea instead of tobacco and wheat 20. More blocks and liberal policy in oil gas

 

[El Sidd]

I dont care about Pakistan and Pakistani AWAM. Neeli ankho wali mil jaye bas mjhay koi

You will become a successful politician.