Five possible outcomes:
A. India advances economically, loses more religious orientation; Pakistan checks its drift towards fundamentalism and gets the Army under civilian control: open market, brisk travel, inter-dependence in infrastructure and services - roads, railroads, air networks, communications networks, electric generation and supplies, hydrocarbon extraction and usage, water sharing, relaxed conditions of employment in each other's countries, freedom to invest and operate in each other's countries;
B. India advances, Pakistan falls under fundamental rule, loses struggle with Army: minimal interaction, continued hostility across borders, increasing alienation of each succeeding generation from idea of interdependence, possibility of short, sharp micro-wars breaking out, Kargil-fashion;
C. Status quo: repeated cycles of attempted peace-making, failures and frustration among forward looking sections, increase in military budgets by India, increased dependence on non-state players by Pakistan, increased pressure on Indian administration to retaliate;
D. India declines or slows down, Pakistan improves economically: sharp up-tick in incidents across the border, increased attacks on the economy of India by Pakistan (forged currency, for instance), increased expenditure on military, attempted coup de main in Kashmir.
E. India declines, Pakistan declines: status quo, with increased alienation of younger people, increased border incidents. Encounters at third party venues get increasingly acid and intransigent.
Comments on these scenarios are welcome.
