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Analysis- Trump's 'Deal of the Century' for the Middle East Might Live or Die in Cairo

HannibalBarca

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https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news...st-peace-might-live-or-die-in-cairo-1.6199973

Disagreeing with the Saudis, Egypt insists that East Jerusalem be the Palestinian capital, making it clear that any economic plan for Gaza is no substitute for a diplomatic plan accepted by the Palestinians
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Egypt's President Abdel-Fattah al-Sissi meets with Trump envoy Jason Greenblatt and adviser Jared Kushner at the presidential palace in Cairo, June 21, 2018,STRINGER/AFP

Saeb Erekat, the chief Palestinian negotiator, has no doubt about the goal of the American “deal of the century.” “Its purpose is to bring down the Palestinian leadership and replace Mahmoud Abbas,” he told a newspaper over the weekend. Erekat is also certain that the Americans plan to bypass the UN refugee agency, the UNRWA, so that money earmarked for refugees goes directly to the countries hosting them. In this way, they would pull the rug out from under the refugee problem, one of the toughest issues in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

As a senior PA official told Haaretz, “the Palestinian Authority’s fear is what Palestinian officials call the Israeli, American, Saudi and Egyptian conspiracy, whose goal is to divide Gaza from the West Bank and provide an economic solution for Gaza while strengthening Hamas, thus avoiding diplomatic negotiations over the future of Palestine.”

This fear is apparently justified. Based on reports in the Egyptian media that rely on Western diplomats, the American plan seeks to establish a free-trade zone between the Gaza Strip and El-Arish in Sinai where five large industrial projects will be established. In accordance with the Israeli demand, these projects will be established in Egypt, which will oversee operations and the passage of workers from Gaza to Sinai.


Two-thirds of the workers will come from Gaza and one-third from Sinai. Later, a joint Egyptian-Palestinian port and solar-energy station will be built, and if everything goes as planned, an airport will be built. The government in Gaza will remain under Hamas’ control but be in full coordination with Egypt, which in recent months has been in intense talks with Hamas on control procedures at the border crossings.

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Protesters demanding the lifting of sanctions on Gaza Strip, in the West Bank city of Ramallah, June 12, 2018.Majdi Mohammed/AP

Egypt, which opened the Rafah crossing in mid-May in honor of Ramadan, will keep the crossings open for two more months until the Id al-Adha holiday, with the intention of leaving it open indefinitely. The crossing is now open not only for people but also for goods and construction materials, against Israel’s wishes. Thus Egypt is making clear to Israel that the closure policy on Gaza might collapse if Israel doesn’t agree to make things considerably easier for the Gazans.

A bit of reconciliation

This is also a clear message to the PA that if President Abbas continues to hinder reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah, Gaza will be cut off from the West Bank and this will end the unification process for the two parts of Palestine.

It seems that the Egyptian message has been heard, and according to a senior Fatah official in the West Bank, Yahya Rabah, the PA will begin paying the salaries to Gaza officials that it had suspended. Also, in coordination with Egypt, Fatah-Hamas reconciliation talks will resume with the goal of reviving the national-unity government in Gaza.

Meanwhile, Egypt, which is particularly worried about developments in Gaza, doesn’t fully accept the U.S. initiative. On Thursday, after a meeting between Egyptian President Abel-Fattah al-Sissi, Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry and intelligence chief Abbas Kamel, who’s in charge of the Palestinian issue, presidential spokesman Bassam Radi announced: “Egypt supports all efforts and initiatives to reach a comprehensive agreement, based on international resolutions made in the past and on the principle of two states for two peoples in the 1967 borders, with East Jerusalem as the capital of Palestine.”

This position makes clear that Egypt doesn’t support the Saudi idea of Abu Dis as the Palestinian capital, and that any economic plan for Gaza won’t be a substitute for a diplomatic plan accepted by the Palestinians. Thus Egypt divides the continuation of the process into two parts: assistance to Gaza and development of its economy as part of bolstering the border between it and Gaza, and comprehensive diplomatic negotiations independent of Gaza’s economy.

Abdullah’s angst

King Abdullah of Jordan, who also met with U.S. envoys Jared Kushner and Jason Greenblatt, is worried mainly about the Saudi intent to remove Jordan’s patronage at the holy places in Jerusalem, which it was promised in the Israel-Jordan peace agreement. Jordan is also worried about Israeli control over the Jordan Valley as part of a peace agreement. In the short term, Abdullah doesn’t oppose the separate economic development of Gaza, but he supports the traditional Arab position that Gaza and the West Bank not be separate entities.

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Palestinians take part in a protest calling on Abbas to lift the sanctions on Gaza Strip, in Ramallah, June 23, 2018.\ MOHAMAD TOROKMAN/ REUTERS

According to Arab sources, Saudi King Salman and his son, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, seem to disagree over this issue. While Mohammed is an enthusiastic supporter of the American plan and the separation of Gaza from the West Bank, his father is concerned about the criticism he could expect if he relinquished the principles of the 2002 Saudi peace initiative by splitting the “Palestinian problem” into two parts and abandoning the position that East Jerusalem be the capital of Palestine.

But it’s not only the “deal of the century” that’s a source of dispute among Arab leaders. President Donald Trump’s statement that he will ask Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar to share in funding new projects in Gaza has encountered stiff opposition from Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The two countries have made clear to U.S. envoys that Qatar’s involvement will mean Iran entering Gaza by the back door. They say they can handle the funding – an estimated $1 billion – on their own if Egypt and Israel agree.

The UAE announced last year that it’s willing allocate $40 million for a power station, and that it would contribute some $15 million to fund the administration in Gaza.

While the Arab-American dispute over the final resolution of the Palestine problem is playing into Israel’s hands, Israel will have to decide about Gaza. Focusing a solution in Gaza on economic projects supposedly plays into Israel’s hands in that it makes Gaza a humanitarian issue and not a diplomatic one. But political wrangling in Israel might torpedo this move in a way that puts Israel into a military confrontation with Gaza, while also pitting Israel against Washington.

 
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We will have to see what is going to be presented, but it's obvious America is not a fair broker and the whole purpose of this effort is give legal backing to Israeli annexation of most of West Bank. Also trying to create atmosphere where there is a deadline for Palestinian cause. And finally with these developments try to ignore crucifix of conflict which is Palestinian independence and instead make it about regional ties even though there is not regional conflict between any of the US allies and Israel.

It's not going to work and US position is going to be ignored by whole public and probably whole world. Unless there is a genuine effort to work with Arab allies to bring about two state solution on 67 borders. Which from the reports seems highly unlikely.

EDIT:

The information about Saudi positions is all rumors and I'm positive they came out and clarified their position which is the same as Egypt's. It's pathetic attempt by US/Israeli media to cause rift between Arabs.
 
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The information about Saudi positions is all rumors
Ale Saud behavior reminds me of this ayeh
وَ إِذا لَقُوا الَّذينَ آمَنُوا قالُوا آمَنَّا وَ إِذا خَلَوْا إِلي‏ شَياطينِهِمْ قالُوا إِنَّا مَعَکُمْ إِنَّما نَحْنُ مُسْتَهْزِؤُنَ

Poor people of peninsula have no influence on this family. That's not a try to make rift between Arabs, that was the truth. There they say something, and then they come to tell us it's opposite.

Russian analyst says that this deal is a deal on submission of Arabs not on peace making. Third party always tells the truth
 
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Ale Saud behavior reminds me of this ayeh
وَ إِذا لَقُوا الَّذينَ آمَنُوا قالُوا آمَنَّا وَ إِذا خَلَوْا إِلي‏ شَياطينِهِمْ قالُوا إِنَّا مَعَکُمْ إِنَّما نَحْنُ مُسْتَهْزِؤُنَ

Poor people of peninsula have no influence on this family. That's not a try to make rift between Arabs, that was the truth. There they say something, and then they come to tell us it's opposite.

Russian analyst says that this deal is a deal on submission of Arabs not on peace making. Third party always tells the truth

Love you bro, but just because they are dictators or not sharing some positions with general public does not mean they will make mistakes like these. They clarified awhile back that they share same position with Egypt regarding 67 borders and East Jerusalem.
 
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The information about Saudi positions is all rumors and I'm positive they came out and clarified their position which is the same as Egypt's. It's pathetic attempt by US/Israeli media to cause rift between Arabs.

Absolutely, bro. It sounds like Sisi gave Kuchner the heave-hi-ho about this deal of the century on his way out to Jordan. Remember we were laughing about this a few months ago? There is no way this clown will bring anything remotely resembling 1967 borders. That's not what Israel would ever agree to and who is Kuchner really working for, besides Trump's ego?
 
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Where does the opening of US embassy in jerusalem fit into all this? If they are all discussing all these things so closely how come US made the move which is apparently unilateral? Or were they all on board? In which case what did arabs and palestinians get in return?

Doesn't make much sense. But what is clear is that saudi-qatar rift is playing in US's hands. Why can't arabs just sit together, generate a consensus, and negotiate as one party from a position of strength. And where is Turkey? They oight to have a role.
 
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Absolutely, bro. It sounds like Sisi gave Kuchner the heave-hi-ho about this deal of the century on his way out to Jordan. Remember we were laughing about this a few months ago? There is no way this clown will bring anything remotely resembling 1967 borders. That's not what Israel would ever agree to and who is Kuchner really working for, besides Trump's ego?

Yep, I'm glad Egypt made it clear to the Trump administration that they are not going to settle for whatever is being signified in reports. Which is pretty much short term relief or pause but with no end game which is not what Arab and Muslim world, along with international community want. What is needed is a permanent solution. Kushner is Jewish himself and is a supporter of right wing views in regards to Israel which will not be good for peace.

Where does the opening of US embassy in jerusalem fit into all this? If they are all discussing all these things so closely how come US made the move which is apparently unilateral? Or were they all on board? In which case what did arabs and palestinians get in return?

Doesn't make much sense. But what is clear is that saudi-qatar rift is playing in US's hands. Why can't arabs just sit together, generate a consensus, and negotiate as one party from a position of strength. And where is Turkey? They oight to have a role.

We need to wait and see what the proposal brings forth. By the looks of it, it will not even outline borders or support the creation of an Palestinian state. They want to relieve the siege on Gaza, and allow PA administration in some areas in West Bank. Which is basically what the status quo is now. Since when was relief of the siege considered part of comprehensive peace plan? The basis should be around a creation of Palestinian state along 67 borders with maybe some land swaps. Instead they want to make it around temporary short term relief for the current status quo with no end in sight.
 
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