Analysis: PAF's Fighter Modernization Roadmap (Part-1)

[Tipu7]

That's Purely Misconception U See Every Air Superiority Fighter in IAF Has HOBS Missile Firing Capability with HMDS (Elbit DASH III)Su-30MKI ,Mig-29UPG.M2K And Even LCA.. Even if the Rafale's Coming or Not.Its Part of IAF ASR


PS:One Capability U Missed Here is Passive IRST Sensor which Also Key Capability in Present Modern Dogfight Scenario.

HOBS CCM Missile Currently in Service of IAF Inventory Presently

1. R-73E
2. MICA RF/IR(IIRCCM) with TVC
3. Python-5 (IIRCCM)
4. ASRAAM

IRST is not part of PAF yet.
It will appear in Block III of Jf17 though

 

[Zarvan]

Part 1: An analysis of the Pakistan Air Force’s decision to focus on F-16s

22 February 2016

By Bilal Khan

A recent episode of ‘Defence and Diplomacy’, a policy news and analysis show hosted by retired Pakistan Air Force (PAF) Group Captain Sultan Hali, offered a number of interesting insights into the PAF’s apparent modernization roadmap, particularly with regards to its fighter fleet. This analysis will touch upon a few key points raised in the episode (which also included retired Air Marshals Shahid Lateef and Yousuf Chaudhry), especially in regards to the PAF’s rationale for pursuing the F-16 as well as its reluctance to induct a comparable alternative, such as the Chengdu FC-20 (i.e. J-10).

For the foreseeable future, the PAF will center its fighter acquisition plans on the JF-17 and F-16. Before continuing into how the PAF would pursue each fighter, it is important to understand the driving forces behind the PAF’s decision. To put it frankly, the main issue is Pakistan’s troubled economy. In other words, the PAF has very limited financial flexibility to depend on in order to replace its heavily aged fighters, i.e. the Dassault Mirage III/5 and Chengdu F-7P. The next several years will be critical for the PAF as it intends to phase-out a significant number of its legacy fighters by 2020.

In terms of the F-16, the PAF is currently looking to procure eight new F-16C/D Block-52+ from the U.S. It is important to note that the PAF is hoping to acquire these fighters with considerable Foreign Military Financing (FMF) support. In other words, it expects the U.S. to subsidize nearly half of the total cost (which is $700 million U.S.). If acquired, this batch would raise the PAF’s total F-16 fleet to 84 aircraft: 26 F-16C/D Block-52+, 45 F-16A/B MLU [Mid-Life-Update], and 13 F-16A/B ADF (Air Defence Fighter).

Through a mix of new-built and used aircraft, the PAF is probably looking to expand the F-16 fleet to 110, which it had originally planned for in the late 1980s, before the U.S. placed sanctions on Pakistan over the latter’s nuclear weapons program. Additional new-built F-16s could be acquired on an incremental and gradual basis whereby the PAF orders numerous small batches over a period of several years. If future acquisitions were to cost in the realm of $350 million U.S. per-order (especially with FMF support), the PAF could succeed in building a relatively sizable Block-52+ fleet by 2020.

The PAF may also pursue used F-16s from the U.S. through the Excess Defence Articles (EDA) program, which would enable it to buy airframes for very cheaply. It could also speak to other air forces, just as it did with Jordan in 2013-2014. It could opt to push these F-16s through a service-life extension program (SLEP), which would add life to their aged airframes. It might also consider upgrading them with a radar and avionics package identical to that found on its existing Block-52+ and MLUs.

However, the cost of replenishing and upgrading these F-16s ($30-35 million U.S. per unit) would basically amount to the cost of a new-built JF-17. The PAF could ultimately acquire used airframes without upgrading them, which would enable it to quickly replace outgoing F-7s and Mirages. In fact, a non-upgraded F-16 would be a substantial upgrade over old F-7 units involved in basic air defence duties (i.e. without the use of beyond-visual-range air-to-air missiles or BVRAAM).

In terms of capability, the PAF’s F-16s are equipped for precision-strikeas well as air-to-air warfare. The PAF has 500 AIM-120C5 BVRAAMs, Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM), and Paveway Guided Bomb Units (GBU) in its inventory. Unfortunately, despite having its F-16s equipped with the Joint Helmet Mounted Cueing System (JHMCS), a helmet-mounted display and sight system (HMD/S), it has not yet acquired the AIM-9X high off-boresight (HOBS) within-visual-range air-to-air missile (WVRAAM). At present, the F-16’s WVRAAM capabilities are centered on the AIM-9M-8/9, which is a fairly capable current-generation all-aspect missile. Moreover, the PAF’s F-16s lack stand-off munitions and anti-ship missiles.

Since the PAF intends to continue procuring additional F-16s, especially new-built fighters such as the Block-52+, it is imperative that it secure these munitions. The main inhibitor would be the U.S., which will avoid tipping the balance of air warfare capabilities between India and Pakistan in Pakistan’s favour. That said, this technology is making into Pakistan via the JF-17, which – by Block-III – will be equipped with a HOBS AAM (and it is already being integrated with various stand-off munitions). The release of the AIM-9X, AGM-154 JSOW and AGM-84L Harpoon Block-II ought to be on the PAF’s roadmap.

With these limitations and issues in mind, one may ask why the PAF is not looking at the Chengdu FC-20 (i.e. J-10), especially as an alternative to the F-16. The reasoning is quite simple. If the PAF were to procure the J-10, it would simply be acquiring another medium-weight fighter. In other words, its inclusion does not necessarily add to the PAF’s existing capabilities, at least in a significant enough way to warrant the induction of an entirely new platform. Yes, the J-10 would offer additional range, payload, and capability boosts (e.g. radar output) compared to the JF-17, but are these advantages significant enough to warrant the costs of introducing a completely new maintenance channel, especially for what will inevitably be a relatively small number of aircraft (i.e. two squadrons)? It will not.

If this is the case, one might ask why the PAF is focusing on the F-16 at all, why not double-down on the JF-17? The question assumes that the PAF is not doubling down on the JF-17. At this point, the PAF is not even looking to buy a significant number of new-built F-16s. It only has eight aircraft on the table, and that too with substantial financial support from the U.S. If one were to consider what is in store for the JF-17 Block-III, then it would be evident that much of the PAF’s fighter budget is in fact going towards the development and induction of the JF-17.

Beyond the JF-17, the PAF has scarcely little financial flexibility. If it were not for FMF, it is unlikely the PAF would even procure the new F-16s. However, the addition of these new F-16s will add to its existing fleet, which will enable the PAF to exploit its existing maintenance infrastructure as well as build its fleet, until such time that a true next-generation fighter is available. Next week, we will take a look at that as well as review the JF-17’s role as the future backbone fighter.

Analysis: Pakistan’s Fighter Modernization Roadmap (Part-1)

@Horus

We need a third 4.5th Generation platform and we have no many options. We have to go for a Fighter Jet from Europe or Russia. After that focus on J-31 development

 

[rockstar08]

I have to use my phone right now, so pardon me for the brevity in my response. But the PAF will acquire additional F-16s through mostly used airframes, either via EDA or via other air forces. If not upgraded, 20 of these planes can be had for the price of a single Rafale. If given SLEP and upgraded, then the PAF could get up to 10 for the price of 1 Rafale.

As for U.S policy in South Asia, this will not change. The U.S understands that it needs to offer the Pak military something in order to maintain its support for U.S regional aims. Cut this, and the U.S will lose that influence, and that would be a strategic blunder. Won't happen. That said, the U.S won't do anything o alter India's advantage, hence the unlikelihood of PAF getting newer AMRAAM, AIM-9X, etc.

As for not adding another platform, the issue is money. For one thing, the J-10B/C hasn't been cleared for export, the FC-20 is actually J-10A. Second, if you add J-10, which is an entirely new fighter, you're merely adding another medium weight fighter. Are you sure your gains would offset the heavy cost of adding a new platform in relatively small numbers, and that too without adding to the PAF (in terms of range and payload)?

Su-35 would be an ideal addition because it gives the PAF a heavyweight design. Unfortunately, getting that will depend on Russia's willingness to extend a financing plan, which it probably won't since it needs cash, with its economy under stress and all.

for the bold part, adding up F-16's old blocks , certainly there is a price difference , but the question remain unanswered that we will be retiring our half of fleet by 2020, which we have to .. recent crashes can not be taken lightly . so by 2020 we are looking at PAF with some 100+/- F-16s and 150 +/- JF's .. still just two Platforms to protect our Air space .. will it be a wise decision ?

for second part , lets just pray that there wont be a major terrorist Attacks in US mainland or their forces in any Foreign state that leads them to Pakistan..

as i mentioned , we cant just play with the rule of Quality always matters , sometimes Quantity matters too .. we need numbers , as we have a chunk of Fleet will be retiring soon . adding J-series , may not add anything huge to Existing Capabilities but at least give us Numbers right ? why not just buy straight from China and no Production line required for it ? is it possible ?

well i think Russian wont be Letting Pakistan for just few hundred Million Dollars , they can afford to offer us a soft way of paying for 1-2 Sq's of Su-35's . China settling in Gwadar , Russian can benefit from CEPC routes , we can provide them much more business they might be expecting form us . as i mentioned we need Good and maybe Back door Diplomacy . it all depends on how we play our cards ..

Can you explain a bit how J-31 or any other 5th Gen fighter is far from PAF reach ? i mean some members like Araz and Blue merlin are talking about PAF getting 5th , is it that easy ? we have just one Operation 5th gen Fighter right now, Raptor .. J-31 will more be 4th++ right ?

 

[Quwa]

for the bold part, adding up F-16's old blocks , certainly there is a price difference , but the question remain unanswered that we will be retiring our half of fleet by 2020, which we have to .. recent crashes can not be taken lightly . so by 2020 we are looking at PAF with some 100+/- F-16s and 150 +/- JF's .. still just two Platforms to protect our Air space .. will it be a wise decision ?

for second part , lets just pray that there wont be a major terrorist Attacks in US mainland or their forces in any Foreign state that leads them to Pakistan..

as i mentioned , we cant just play with the rule of Quality always matters , sometimes Quantity matters too .. we need numbers , as we have a chunk of Fleet will be retiring soon . adding J-series , may not add anything huge to Existing Capabilities but at least give us Numbers right ? why not just buy straight from China and no Production line required for it ? is it possible ?

well i think Russian wont be Letting Pakistan for just few hundred Million Dollars , they can afford to offer us a soft way of paying for 1-2 Sq's of Su-35's . China settling in Gwadar , Russian can benefit from CEPC routes , we can provide them much more business they might be expecting form us . as i mentioned we need Good and maybe Back door Diplomacy . it all depends on how we play our cards ..

Can you explain a bit how J-31 or any other 5th Gen fighter is far from PAF reach ? i mean some members like Araz and Blue merlin are talking about PAF getting 5th , is it that easy ? we have just one Operation 5th gen Fighter right now, Raptor .. J-31 will more be 4th++ right ?

If the PAF is concerned about numbers, it'll just ramp up JF-17 production and add more used F-16s. Now as to why it'll depend on just two platforms, why is this surprising? A single modern platform is capable of taking on a wide range of roles, e.g. the JF-17 is being equipped with AShM, ARM, SOW, and ALCM. As long as the platform is capable of utilizing modern electronics and munitions, it is fine. Moreover, the reduction in aircraft types is a normal phenomenon, and a good one since it enables the PAF to save costs on maintenance and infrastructure.

As for Su-35. That is going to depend on Pakistan's structural economic position in the next several years. If the proportion allocated to debt servicing in the fiscal budget falls in the next several years, then Russia will feel more comfortable extending a line of credit or financing plan to Pakistan.

J-31 is an experimental program, the real 5th gen system is FC-31. AVIC is looking for a partner to help finance the development of the fighter, and the PAF is probably considering it. If anything, this would be the jet Pakistan would produce after the JF-17, but from the 2030s...

 

[Haroon Baloch]

What about the IMF Debt ? We have to pay that in August they will not let us to spend anymore in our defense if we don't pay that 80$ Billion Debt.

 

[volatile]

In my view this is going to happen

1. 110 F16 Inshallah by 2020 (36 Block 52 ,45 MLU +13 Jordanian + 15 from other sources Possibly Dutch,Turkey or any other friendly nation.
2. 150 JF-17 with increased production rate all to block 3 specs no compromise by PAF (Money is being pumped)
3. 40 Rose Mirages with precision strike capability
4. 30-40 F7 PG for point interception ,Just remember F7 PG will always have accompany probably with thunder so PG guys will be in good hand .

Total = 110+150+40+40 = 340 in which other than PGs all are quite formidable platforms.
After 2020 road map will be induction of JF 31 with money spared from existing you will see 4-5 5th Gen plane coming every year so in a decade it will be around 50 with current budget .seems like a rational and sensible plan

At the end of the day this is quite good arrangement for 2030 .

We need a third 4.5th Generation platform and we have no many options. We have to go for a Fighter Jet from Europe or Russia. After that focus on J-31 development

We need 5th Gen we already have 4+ if not 4++ generation fighters (F16 & Jf17 3rd block) induct F31 by 2020 in small numbers

 

[Shariq786]

I really don't think that we need to rush and bring the timeline down to 2020 where as we can have it untill 2025....

I mean we won't be phasing out all of those F-7's and Mirage III/V at once... We would be doing that squadran by squadran which will give us time and ease because few of F-7PG and Mirage III/V's with Rose upgrades can still be used and as Kamra stated that the production and be taken upto 25 Jets a year so i don't think we need to rush it up we can have 150 JF's till 2020 110 or 120 F-16's that makes around 260 or 270 fighters and around 130 newest made F-7PGs and Mirage III\V's with ROSE upgrades and if we could get our hands on SU-35's so 40 would be enough.....

Or to be more realistic we could order 50 more block 2's with AESA and 50 more block 3's (which would be like a mini F-16)and wait for J-31 and get them with TOT and production line in PAK till 2030 simple ........

because i don't think that INDIAN AIR FORCE would get anything out of Rafale deal till 2018 if it can and even after that the complete package to be delivered by France would be done by 2021 and About super Sukhoi's i mean trust me till 2025 you don't have to worry about that either and about TEJAS come on we all know that TEJAS is ISI's Secret weapon .....

 

[cerberus]

Please provide pictorial evidence of Asraam in IAF

Its Classified Information But It Will be Equipped in Darin III upgraded Jaguars the Contact Itself Was Signed in 2014 Confirmed by MBDA

MBDA signs Indian ASRAAM contract


It RAF Already Tested it on there Labs in
Test firings took place with the UK Royal Air Force in 2011 and the Indian Ministry of Defence chose ASRAAM as the L1, or preferred, option in late 2012.
Fit checks for ASRAAM were carried out on a UK RAF Jaguar at Boscombe Down in 2012.
India to arm Jaguar with ASRAAM missile « SEPECAT Jaguar in detail

ASRAAM. Of these, though, only MBDA together with its partners Elbit Systems (supplier of the Dash V helmet-mounted sight) and Cobham (provider of the Jaguar overwing missile launcher, or JOWL) has to date succeeded in integrating the AIM-132 ASRAAM with the Jaguar IS.

TRISHUL: Ambitious Upgrade Plans For IAF Jaguars

PS: Any other Query Feel Free to Ask
@Quwa Sorry For Going Off-topic Mate

 

[hussain0216]

I said this before, the J10 is good but its the same class of fighter and whilst it is good it dosent warrant the cost of induction, training, support staff.

The JF17 has beaten all our expectations, it is still a light fighter aircraft but we will load it with everything we need and in numbers with BVR, AESA etc it ain't bad as our basic core fighter. Expect it to go beyond block 3 and keep improving so in times of sanction and trouble we wont be caught out like the Iranians.

By 2020

150+ JF17s (100 Block 2s, 50 block 3s and I expect confirmation of another order of 50 jets by then, we will have between 200-300 JF17s)

100+ F16s, we will order new, or old from any source we can get them

We will continue to fly some legacy fighters 100 to 150 until we have JF17s in major numbers

We will take a final decision post 2020 but I expect a heavily customised J31, China wont be buying this plane so we will have a arrangement with the Chinese company to put in investment and funds, the company to get profit and PAF to have immense leeway to push development in whichever directions it wants

This will happen with the only caveat being if our economy takes off snd we are flush with funds, we could go with some heavies and a dedicated plane for anti ship role apart from JF17s

 

[araz]

Part 1: An analysis of the Pakistan Air Force’s decision to focus on F-16s

22 February 2016

By Bilal Khan

A recent episode of ‘Defence and Diplomacy’, a policy news and analysis show hosted by retired Pakistan Air Force (PAF) Group Captain Sultan Hali, offered a number of interesting insights into the PAF’s apparent modernization roadmap, particularly with regards to its fighter fleet. This analysis will touch upon a few key points raised in the episode (which also included retired Air Marshals Shahid Lateef and Yousuf Chaudhry), especially in regards to the PAF’s rationale for pursuing the F-16 as well as its reluctance to induct a comparable alternative, such as the Chengdu FC-20 (i.e. J-10).

For the foreseeable future, the PAF will center its fighter acquisition plans on the JF-17 and F-16. Before continuing into how the PAF would pursue each fighter, it is important to understand the driving forces behind the PAF’s decision. To put it frankly, the main issue is Pakistan’s troubled economy. In other words, the PAF has very limited financial flexibility to depend on in order to replace its heavily aged fighters, i.e. the Dassault Mirage III/5 and Chengdu F-7P. The next several years will be critical for the PAF as it intends to phase-out a significant number of its legacy fighters by 2020.

In terms of the F-16, the PAF is currently looking to procure eight new F-16C/D Block-52+ from the U.S. It is important to note that the PAF is hoping to acquire these fighters with considerable Foreign Military Financing (FMF) support. In other words, it expects the U.S. to subsidize nearly half of the total cost (which is $700 million U.S.). If acquired, this batch would raise the PAF’s total F-16 fleet to 84 aircraft: 26 F-16C/D Block-52+, 45 F-16A/B MLU [Mid-Life-Update], and 13 F-16A/B ADF (Air Defence Fighter).

Through a mix of new-built and used aircraft, the PAF is probably looking to expand the F-16 fleet to 110, which it had originally planned for in the late 1980s, before the U.S. placed sanctions on Pakistan over the latter’s nuclear weapons program. Additional new-built F-16s could be acquired on an incremental and gradual basis whereby the PAF orders numerous small batches over a period of several years. If future acquisitions were to cost in the realm of $350 million U.S. per-order (especially with FMF support), the PAF could succeed in building a relatively sizable Block-52+ fleet by 2020.

The PAF may also pursue used F-16s from the U.S. through the Excess Defence Articles (EDA) program, which would enable it to buy airframes for very cheaply. It could also speak to other air forces, just as it did with Jordan in 2013-2014. It could opt to push these F-16s through a service-life extension program (SLEP), which would add life to their aged airframes. It might also consider upgrading them with a radar and avionics package identical to that found on its existing Block-52+ and MLUs.

However, the cost of replenishing and upgrading these F-16s ($30-35 million U.S. per unit) would basically amount to the cost of a new-built JF-17. The PAF could ultimately acquire used airframes without upgrading them, which would enable it to quickly replace outgoing F-7s and Mirages. In fact, a non-upgraded F-16 would be a substantial upgrade over old F-7 units involved in basic air defence duties (i.e. without the use of beyond-visual-range air-to-air missiles or BVRAAM).

In terms of capability, the PAF’s F-16s are equipped for precision-strikeas well as air-to-air warfare. The PAF has 500 AIM-120C5 BVRAAMs, Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM), and Paveway Guided Bomb Units (GBU) in its inventory. Unfortunately, despite having its F-16s equipped with the Joint Helmet Mounted Cueing System (JHMCS), a helmet-mounted display and sight system (HMD/S), it has not yet acquired the AIM-9X high off-boresight (HOBS) within-visual-range air-to-air missile (WVRAAM). At present, the F-16’s WVRAAM capabilities are centered on the AIM-9M-8/9, which is a fairly capable current-generation all-aspect missile. Moreover, the PAF’s F-16s lack stand-off munitions and anti-ship missiles.

Since the PAF intends to continue procuring additional F-16s, especially new-built fighters such as the Block-52+, it is imperative that it secure these munitions. The main inhibitor would be the U.S., which will avoid tipping the balance of air warfare capabilities between India and Pakistan in Pakistan’s favour. That said, this technology is making into Pakistan via the JF-17, which – by Block-III – will be equipped with a HOBS AAM (and it is already being integrated with various stand-off munitions). The release of the AIM-9X, AGM-154 JSOW and AGM-84L Harpoon Block-II ought to be on the PAF’s roadmap.

With these limitations and issues in mind, one may ask why the PAF is not looking at the Chengdu FC-20 (i.e. J-10), especially as an alternative to the F-16. The reasoning is quite simple. If the PAF were to procure the J-10, it would simply be acquiring another medium-weight fighter. In other words, its inclusion does not necessarily add to the PAF’s existing capabilities, at least in a significant enough way to warrant the induction of an entirely new platform. Yes, the J-10 would offer additional range, payload, and capability boosts (e.g. radar output) compared to the JF-17, but are these advantages significant enough to warrant the costs of introducing a completely new maintenance channel, especially for what will inevitably be a relatively small number of aircraft (i.e. two squadrons)? It will not.

If this is the case, one might ask why the PAF is focusing on the F-16 at all, why not double-down on the JF-17? The question assumes that the PAF is not doubling down on the JF-17. At this point, the PAF is not even looking to buy a significant number of new-built F-16s. It only has eight aircraft on the table, and that too with substantial financial support from the U.S. If one were to consider what is in store for the JF-17 Block-III, then it would be evident that much of the PAF’s fighter budget is in fact going towards the development and induction of the JF-17.

Beyond the JF-17, the PAF has scarcely little financial flexibility. If it were not for FMF, it is unlikely the PAF would even procure the new F-16s. However, the addition of these new F-16s will add to its existing fleet, which will enable the PAF to exploit its existing maintenance infrastructure as well as build its fleet, until such time that a true next-generation fighter is available. Next week, we will take a look at that as well as review the JF-17’s role as the future backbone fighter.

Analysis: Pakistan’s Fighter Modernization Roadmap (Part-1)

@Horus

The effort is laudable. I would add that the acquisition of new F16s is conditional to PAF acquiring some older platforms for MLU. IF it is something like the ADFs of RJAF for which PAF paid very little then it would be a welcome addition and allow a squadron to be formed with some older MLUES. The capability boost for the PAF would be amazing. I also suspect osmewhere along the line perhaps with the acquisition of the next lot of newer 16s will come if not more axvanced then certainly more BVR missiles. As to HOBS WRAAM,I strongly suspecy it will be from some other source and the acquisition would be common for the fleet. These are my own assum0tions of what makes sense to me and if I am right we may well see some progress on the front in 6- 12 months.
Araz

 

[hussain0216]

One more thing about the F16 its a great fighter and it serves our purposes to keep inducting even a old airframe in our pilots hands not only give a capabilities boost compared to what we have now but is deadly.


The U.S is a problem we will use the F16s against any enemy we see fit, spares will not be a issue during war only after, PAF will hope to better JF17s to the point where even if it is not equal to a e.g a Raphael it is a whole package that we can conduct most operations with e.g taking out terrorists in Waziristan


If the U S becomes a problem then we can use the F16s until they die a natural death then fuc off the USA, the U.S however wont want to lose one of the last bits of influence they have over us

The JF17 will be improved to a point to get it as close to in capabilities as a F16

 

[araz]

It won't be a 1:1 replacement, but used F-16s via EDA could be acquired to quickly phase out the F-7s. If not upgraded these used F-16s won't be advanced, but they'll be a step up from the F-7s, and can be had for very cheap. If need be, the PAF could drop $25-30mn on each used F-16 and put them through SLEP and MLU or CCIP, which would place them on par with the Block-52+ in terms of avionics.

I dont see F16s progressing beyond 2030- 35. The progressive lack of trust between US and Pak and the advances on the Chinese side might make it a non viable option. The money could possibly be utilized better with newer airframes of JFT and fifth generation acquisitions.
A

 

[Quwa]

The effort is laudable. I would add that the acquisition of new F16s is conditional to PAF acquiring some older platforms for MLU. IF it is something like the ADFs of RJAF for which PAF paid very little then it would be a welcome addition and allow a squadron to be formed with some older MLUES. The capability boost for the PAF would be amazing. I also suspect osmewhere along the line perhaps with the acquisition of the next lot of newer 16s will come if not more axvanced then certainly more BVR missiles. As to HOBS WRAAM,I strongly suspecy it will be from some other source and the acquisition would be common for the fleet. These are my own assum0tions of what makes sense to me and if I am right we may well see some progress on the front in 6- 12 months.
Araz

Ideally speaking, the PAF would acquire the Diehl BGT IRIS-T and Turkish SOM ALCM for use on the F-16, but despite being certified for use on the F-16, the PAF may have trouble getting the U.S. to agree. Onerous end-user requirements is probably the most trying aspect of the F-16, more so than cost or availability of new munitions. That said, the moment the JF-17 is equipped with HMD/S and HOBS AAM, I am sure the U.S. will agree to release the AIM-9X.

As I see it, the PAF is almost certainly looking to bring the Block-52+ fleet to 36 (potentially 50-55) and MLU fleet to 60, which was the pre-2005 plan. Beyond that, there could be any number of non-upgraded used F-16s, which could be acquired from the U.S. or other countries. At this point the total F-16 fleet will cross 100, but there's a chance that it will touch 150 (including attrition and cannibalization spares).

As for 2030 on wards, we'll see the PAF procure advanced variant JF-17s and FC-31/5th gen fighters.

 

[Wolf]

I would have liked if Bilal Khan should have explained the pros and cons of induction of J 11Ds or J16s.

Regarding J10s,

1) J10C with aesa, F16s without aesa.
2) Cost effective against F16s
3) Sanction free, F16s are not.
4) Non stop supply of spares, no guarantee in case of F16s
5) Possibility of getting HOBS capability, in case of F16s slight chance.

So, in view of the above, if PAF is interested in getting F16s as a medium category aircraft then why cant it induct J10s in the medium category aircraft especially when we have aforementioned advantages in the procurement of J 10Cs.

 

[Quwa]

I would have liked if Bilal Khan should have explained the pros and cons of induction of J 11Ds or J16s.

Regarding J10s,

1) J10C with aesa, F16s without aesa.
2) Cost effective against F16s
3) Sanction free, F16s are not.
4) Non stop supply of spares, no guarantee in case of F16s
5) Possibility of getting HOBS capability, in case of F16s slight chance.

So, in view of the above, if PAF is interested in getting F16s as a medium category aircraft then why cant it induct J10s in the medium category aircraft especially when we have aforementioned advantages in the procurement of J 10Cs.

Regarding the J-10. It's important to understand that neither the J-10B or J-10C have been cleared for export, even to the PAF. This was plainly stated by Alan Warnes and was actually demonstrated, very clearly, during the Singapore Air Show. The only J-10 variant available for sale is the J-10A, i.e. the first version.

With that in mind, how much of a jump would the J-10A offer over the existing F-16s? Think about it from the following perspective. We are asking the PAF to raise an entirely new infrastructure and maintenance channel, from engine to electronics to airframe, for the J-10. Based on that, the PAF would not be able to induct an initial batch of more than two squadrons.

So, for spending all that money for 2 squadrons, what are we getting? It's just another medium weight fighter that will add onto our existing medium weight fighters, i.e. F-16. The issue isn't sanctions, for that we have JF-17, which is taking up a huge proportion of the PAF's fighter budget. The issue is cost-benefit. How much benefit are you getting from 28-36 J-10s after paying a significant amount of money and time for inducting a new fighter type? What does the J-10 (in small initial numbers) bring over the JF-17 and F-16 that justifies such a cost?

The PAF wants the latest technology, but it's looking to bring them via the JF-17 Block-III (and future versions). This is where the vast majority of the PAF's funds are actually going, it isn't really sparing that much for the F-16s. The main reason why the F-16s are even on the table is because the PAF has the infrastructure to smoothly induct them, and that the U.S. is willing to partially subsidize them.