An Indian's Analysis

[Syed Mukkarram]

I think we Pakistanis should counter the topic through economic viability and logically instead of trolling and idiotically, people like me join this forum for learning but i am finding no serious reply from My Pakistan members here. I must say excellent analysis through economics and need a counter reply which this thread lacks due to non availability of knowledge by Pakistani members.

 

[Sliver]

i really thought there was going to be a counter reply to each of the points raised by the OP. kind of disappointed that I read through most of it only to find it being rubbished in a few words. can someone form Pak please give a rebuttal to the OP? I want to understand both sides.

 

[武成王]

This article implicitly claimed that the author is rational and neutral by putting lots of references published by Pakistan medias at the end of the article, however he made a basic logic error. He is assuming that all references are logically correct and reliable. That's simply wrong. Most articles either lack of acknowledges from high ranked officials relevant with CPEC projects or just expressed various concerns from various Pakistan stakeholders, the latter is especially understandable.

However, whenever we try to understand the purpose of CPEC, we have to put this under a big picture of diplomatic relationship of these 2 nations.

Q1, which one is more important? 46 billions $ or the relationship of between Pakistan and China ? Will China force Pakistan to pay the debts if say, Pakistan had an economy crisis in future?

Q2, will the Chinese goods flood into Pakistan from Xinjiang, western China? (Please do basic investigation on Karakoram Highway and economy along this road before answer this question).

Q3, what's the big problems in Pakistan? How to deal with, or resolve the problems?
Q4, If the projects are successfully implemented, what's the impact to Pakistan and India respectively?

Q5, The role of Gwadar Port?
Q6 Why China pour big money in BD, Sri Lanka, SEA, Africa, this time, it's turn of Pakistan?
Q7 ...


It's a good method to understand the purpose of CPEC by raising questions. Lots of impractical delusions will be eradicated by this way.

 

[ito]

You know that GB is the only land border that China has with Pakistan?

Tell me, how can CPEC exist if there is no land connection?



Yes, we have lost India's dear presence in the NSG and the UNSC. Also our trade surplus with India has been soaring, as well as grabbing dominance in India's domestic markets like taking over 50% of India's smartphone market.

This hurts a lot, but you should watch out for your borders which are currently running with blood (as well as decapitations and mutilations) as we speak.

Who cares about UN and NSG. Yes, India wants to be in both, but it is not something that is so important. As on Chinese smartphone, at one stoke if India bans Chinese makers...all their billions of investment goes down the drain.

More importantly, now you are certain to not get any of part in the $150 billion tenders that are floating for new high speed rails routes, And then there is almost $1 trillion infrastructure projects for building roads, rails, ports, renewable energies and traditional energy projects in next ten years. You are out of those now.

Also, I am sure China doesn't want a hostile enemy which as strong as India at its doorsteps.

 

[Kabira]

This article implicitly claimed that the author is rational and neutral by putting lots of references published by Pakistan medias at the end of the article, however he made a basic logic error. He is assuming that all references are logically correct and reliable. That's simply wrong. Most articles either lack of acknowledges from high ranked officials relevant with CPEC projects or just expressed various concerns from various Pakistan stakeholders, the latter is especially understandable.

However, whenever we try to understand the purpose of CPEC, we have to put this under a big picture of diplomatic relationship of these 2 nations.

Q1, which one is more important? 46 billions $ or the relationship of between Pakistan and China ? Will China force Pakistan to pay the debts if say, Pakistan had an economy crisis in future?

Q2, will the Chinese goods flood into Pakistan from Xinjiang, western China? (Please do basic investigation on Karakoram Highway and economy along this road before answer this question).

Q3, what's the big problems in Pakistan? How to deal with, or resolve the problems?
Q4, If the projects are successfully implemented, what's the impact to Pakistan and India respectively?

Q5, The role of Gwadar Port?
Q6 Why China pour big money in BD, Sri Lanka, SEA, Africa, this time, it's turn of Pakistan?
Q7 ...


It's a good method to understand the purpose of CPEC by raising questions. Lots of impractical delusions will be eradicated by this way.

CPEC is seen as current ruling party PML-N project, their opponents in media and opposition have been written articles like these without much though process. One opposition party didn't even come on board till couple of years later when they saw CPEC was real thing.

 

[武成王]

CPEC is seen as current ruling party PML-N project, their opponents in media and opposition have been written articles like these without much though process. One opposition party didn't even come on board till couple of years later when they saw CPEC was real thing.

Understandable. My point is, whatever arguments should base on solid information and sound logic.

 

[Sine Nomine]

I think we Pakistanis should counter the topic through economic viability and logically instead of trolling and idiotically, people like me join this forum for learning but i am finding no serious reply from My Pakistan members here. I must say excellent analysis through economics and need a counter reply which this thread lacks due to non availability of knowledge by Pakistani members.

i really thought there was going to be a counter reply to each of the points raised by the OP. kind of disappointed that I read through most of it only to find it being rubbished in a few words. can someone form Pak please give a rebuttal to the OP? I want to understand both sides.

Though many Indians are badly butt hurt folks when it comes to Pakistan but they seem right over here.
I have'nt came across any manufacturing unit or any industrial project which is going to be back bone of our country,it's at best a Road Project that too at expense of Pakistan by our political bastards.
PMLN is only over hyping it to earn some brownie points.
Being a common man i know only one thing never take loan,die with hunger instead of paying debt.

 

[Kamikaze Pilot]

contd/--

Note : I have collected above all the information only and only from Pakistani News sites and references are provided it each and every info. I am also thankful to courageous Pakistani Reporters specially Khurram Husain[112] who publish these facts in public. So please if any one have any problems or suggestion regarding these figures or information please use comment section.

Another shocking fact is when you check the wikipedia page of China–Pakistan Economic Corridor, number of facts are forged with improper and false references, when I have tried to change the info they continuously undoing the changes.

For the Pakistani Readers who want comment on this topic, I am clearly mentioning that these facts and figures mentioned above are based on figures released by State Bank of Pakistan and Government of Pakistan. If you found any incorrect figures please let me know in comments. Please debate on my answer which covers Pakistan Economy and Debt Crisis, and nowhere I have mentioned any Indian perspective. If you think so please read the references properly, they tell you right story.

Thanks for this overwhelming response and I cannot imagine after writing such a long answer I have got 4000+ Upvotes, 80+ Comments, 250+ shares and 120k+ views. With this article I have tried to cover most of the stuffs regarding this question, but if you think I have missed something or you have any suggestion to add anything please suggest me in comment. If you think this answer is justified this topic correctly, please share it on social media, so other people also come to know these facts.

Footnotes

[1] Pakistan lands $46 billion investment from China

[2] CPEC investment pushed from $55b to $62b - The Express Tribune

[3] CPEC cost build-up

[4] Pakistan’s next economic crisis

[5] Financing burden of CPEC

[6] Pakistan will be paying China $90b against CPEC-related projects - The Express Tribune

[7] CPEC enclaves

[8] Venezuela falls behind on oil-for-loan deals with China, Russia

[9] Should China Let Venezuela Collapse?

[10] Financing burden of CPEC

[11] Blacklisted firm still involved in mega projects

[12] Nandipur power turning out to be most expensive

[13] Bridge at Khanpur canal collapses before inauguration due to heavy water flow | Dunya News

[14] CPEC: The devil is not in the details

[15] CPEC claims and doubts

[16] Windfall for Chinese on coal fired projects - The Express Tribune

[17] Creeping tax exemptions

[18] Tax breaks for Chinese won’t hit economy: govt

[19] FBR to prevent misuse of tax concessions for CPEC imports

[20] CPEC-inspired economic zones

[21] CPEC: Looking a gift horse in the mouth

[22] Economic cost of terrorism - Pakistan Observer

[23] Accountability at last?

[24] Pakistan improves slightly to 116 rank on global corruption index

[25] World Bank tribunal rules against Pakistan in Reko Diq project case

[26] Reko Diq ruckus

[27] Despite govt support, Pakistan’s textile industry lags behind - The Express Tribune

[28] Power consumers bear big part of subsidy cost - The Express Tribune

[29] Understanding your Electricity Bill in Pakistan | Loadshedding.pk

[30] Mother China: A 'Chinese revolution' sweeps across Pakistan

[31] Some Pakistani power firms stuck in slow lane on China's Silk Road

[32] Electricity shortfall reaches 5000MW - Pakistan - Dunya News

[33] Aptma warns of de-industrialisation in Punjab

[34] Textile tycoons eye booming retail business

[35] Load-shedding and an election

[36] Minister blames high temperatures for loadshedding

[37] Falling Exports

[38] Pakistan rapidly heading towards severe debt trap: economists

[39] Pakistan’s external debt likely to swell to $110b in four years - The Express Tribune

[40] Declining remittances

[41] Saudi Arabia deported 39,000 Pakistanis in last four months: report

[42] Cover story: Black into white — inside money laundering

[43] Pakistan’s taxation crisis

[44] Pakistan’s taxing problem

[45] Pakistan’s next economic crisis

[46] Back in crisis

[47] Why 25 million children are out of school in Pakistan - The Express Tribune

[48] Education emergency: Why Ahsan Iqbal’s desire of increasing literacy rate to 90% by 2025 is mere wishful thinking

[49] Zia-ul-Haq and the ‘Islamization’ of Pakistan’s Public Universities

[50] National education emergency - The Express Tribune

[51] What are we teaching our children? - The Express Tribune

[52] 10 alarming statistics about Pakistan’s out-of-school children

[53] 6% graduation rate is too low: GCUF VC - The Express Tribune

[54] Chinese firm gets Nandipur plant’s operation contract

[55] Chinese company to lift garbage in Karachi

[56] Chinese firm to start cleaning up Karachi by early February

[57] Waste lifting in Rawalpindi contracted to Turkish firm

[58] Waste management: Turkish companies to help clean Lahore - The Express Tribune

[59] Opposition leader criticises 'Punjab-centric' CPEC projects

[60] The importance of Karachi - The Express Tribune

[61] Victim of unethical politics

[62] Pakistan: What Stands in CPEC’s Way?

[63] Punjab gets lion’s share in Chinese projects - The Express Tribune

[64] Senators say CPEC turned into ‘China-Punjab’ corridor

[65] Threat perceptions

[66] Pakistani victims: War on terror toll put at 49,000 - The Express Tribune

[67] Terrorism has cost Pakistan $100 billion in past 11 years

[68] 80,000 Pakistanis killed in US 'War on Terror': report - The Express Tribune

[69] Defence budget hiked by usual 11pc

[70] 'Corruption remains a systemic problem in Pakistan' - The Express Tribune

[71] NAB: From one controversy to another

[72] Pakistan's thriving culture of corruption

[73] No coordination between NAB, ACE, FIA delaying corruption cases: sources

[74] Anti-corruption myths

[75] IMF warns of looming CPEC bill

[76] Six concerns PML-N government must address about CPEC - The Express Tribune

[77] Think tank calculates GDP growth at 3.1% - The Express Tribune

[78] Pakistan receives $4.6b as new loans

[79] National debt, liabilities cross Rs22 trillion

[80] Debt servicing eats up 66pc of tax money

[81] Fiscal deficit widens as IMF warns of challenges ahead

[82] Pakistan’s current account deficit widens 121% - The Express Tribune

[83] Pakistan’s debt profile

[84] Pakistan signs 43-year lease with China for Special Economic Zone in Gwadar

[85] The giddy brigade

[86] Extreme weather: Astore in grip of snowstorm for four days - The Express Tribune

[87] Snow, rain in April: Six injured in G-B landslides - The Express Tribune

[88] What can guarantee CPEC’s success - The Express Tribune

[89] Is CPEC a 'game changer' for Pakistan?

[90] The global implications of China’s terrorism problem

[91] 15,000 troops of Special Security Division to protect CPEC projects, Chinese nationals

[92] Power consumers to pay for CPEC security - The Express Tribune

[93] NA panel cautions govt over CPEC use by Chinese trucks

[94] Before the CPEC

[95] Beyond CPEC

[96] CPEC: The devil is not in the details

[97] Cable, wire manufacturers say tax breaks under CPEC hurting industry

[98] Another bailout package for PIA allowed

[99] The big debate: to sell or not to sell PIA?

[100] PTV, Nadra made irregular appointments, says audit report

[101] The demise of Pakistan Steel Mills

[102] Pakistan Steel Mills financial woes continue

[103] AGP questions OGDCL’s performance

[104] Pakistan Railways suffers another loss-making year - The Express Tribune

[105] In three years, Pakistan has taken on $25b in fresh loans - The Express Tribune

[106] SBP borrowing dollars to arrest fall in reserves

[107] External debt, bankruptcy and Pakistan

[108] Sukuk issue: Karachi airport offered as security - The Express Tribune

[109] The Growth Story

[110] China's debt is 250% of GDP and 'could be fatal', says government expert

[111] China should ensure Pakistan doesn't face financial crisis

[112] News stories for Khurram Husain

I am a layman and I don't know about economics. So what are you saying? Is CPEC good or bad for Pakistan?

 

[Bharat Muslim]

Though many Indians are badly butt hurt folks when it comes to Pakistan but they seem right over here.
I have'nt came across any manufacturing unit or any industrial project which is going to be back bone of our country,it's at best a Road Project that too at expense of Pakistan by our political bastards.
PMLN is only over hyping it to earn some brownie points.
Being a common man i know only one thing never take loan,die with hunger instead of paying debt.

So what are you going to do about it? Oppose the project by organizing protests or leave the country for abroad so that you as individual and your family are kept safe?

 

[GURU DUTT]

I am a layman and I don't know about economics. So what are you saying? Is CPEC good or bad for Pakistan?

they would say ... China sadda yaar hai uspe har pakistani dil o jaan nisaar hai ....

point is they actually do not know the answer to what you just asked themselfs cause most of them do not know weather so cllled "46+ billion US dollars " is investment or LOAN which has to be paid back with interests

and why does a bank gves you a loan in the first place ?


and why do you take a buissness loan and if you do not have a competive industry and working envoirment and skilled labour to offer you will become a buyers market and what will it lead to but im sure the mods and admin wont read into detail and jump to erase this comment cause it speaks bitter truth kyon haina @WebMaster , @Irfan Baloch

 

[Bharat Muslim]

point is they actually do not know the answer to what you just asked themselfs cause most of them do not know weather so cllled "46+ billion US dollars " is investment or LOAN which has to be paid back with interests

Actually they do know very well about the harmfulness of CPEC. But the corrupt Pakistani media is misleading the Pakistani public because the the common Pakistanis are too busy being absorbed in their personal lives and struggles of survival. They don't have time to study economics. Those Pakistanis who are in the know and have the power to take right decisions have been purchased by Chinese. It is evident here on PaDefForum. Way back in 2013 the member named Argus Panoptes had dismissed this project as non-viable.

It (the misinformation campaign) can happen to Indian public also.

@Kaptaan @django

Below is the thread where a Pakistani warns about harmfulness of CPEC (in the replies he posted).

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/china-pakistan-economic-corridor-cpec-updates-discussions.259273/

@naveedullahkhankhattak

 

[GURU DUTT]

Actually they do know very well about the harmfulness of CPEC. But the corrupt Pakistani media is misleading the Pakistani public because the the common Pakistanis are too busy being absorbed in their personal lives and struggles of survival. They don't have time to study economics. Those Pakistanis who are in the know and have the power to take right decisions have been purchased by Chinese. It is evident here on PaDefForum. Way back in 2013 the member named Argus Panoptes had dismissed this project as non-viable.

It (the misinformation campaign) can happen to Indian public also.

@Kaptaan @django

well i care less what happens to those who have a habit of shooting themslefs in foot just because to show there so called enemy "see we have friend's too who are investing with us" its another matter as to why

point is muslim elite never learnt its lessons and like 18th centuarry when is first asked ahmed shah abdali to attack marthas and then saught british help against marthas to keep its jageers and age old hold on its "riyayyaa" as "barkarar" 150 year long english rule followed but in a way united all india and finished muslim rule for good to its core but these muslim feudals dint learn and look what they did in pakistan first they sided with USA & Saudi arabia and destroyed indian sub contenints age old tolerrent sufi islamik culture and gave birth to wahabbi+klashnikov+opium culture and i wonder what this new round of romance with China will bring good luck pakistan and pakistanies my best wishes

 

[Bharat Muslim]

well i care less what happens to those who have a habit of shooting themslefs in foot just because to show there so called enemy "see we have friend's too who are investing with us" its another matter as to why

point is muslim elite never learnt its lessons and like 18th centuarry when is first asked ahmed shah abdali to attack marthas and then saught british help against marthas to keep its jageers and age old hold on its "riyayyaa" as "barkarar" 150 year long english rule followed but in a way united all india and finished muslim rule for good to its core but these muslim feudals dint learn and look what they did in pakistan first they sided with USA & Saudi arabia and destroyed indian sub contenints age old tolerrent sufi islamik culture and gave birth to wahabbi+klashnikov+opium culture and i wonder what this new round of romance with China will bring good luck pakistan and pakistanies my best wishes

It is not about Pakistan shooting itself in foot. It is is about corrupt watchman taking bribe from rich robbers.

Remember when British colonized India through bribery, they were small in numbers when compared to Indians but still they easily managed to colonize us. Hence what we did to ourselves by letting British colonize us is worse and more shameful than what Pakistanis are allowing to happen.

 

[GURU DUTT]

It is not about Pakistan shooting itself in foot. It is is about corrupt watchman taking bribe from rich robbers.

Remember when British colonized India through bribery, they were small in numbers when compared to Indians but still they easily managed to colonize us. Hence what we did to ourselves by letting British colonize us is worse and more shameful than what Pakistanis are allowing to happen.

why are you botherred about it pakistanies are happy about CEPC and what there elite did about CEPC both past and present why should any indian be botherred in a way it good for us

 

[Bharat Muslim]

why are you botherred about it pakistanies are happy about CEPC and what there elite did about CEPC both past and present why should any indian be botherred in a way it good for us

Just as today Pakistanis are happy about CPEC, in times gone by, Indians too may have been happy about British Raj and it paved way for British taking over India.

My point is corruption and not Pakistanis is to be blamed for this decisions which are harmful to Pakistan.