AN IAF WITHOUT THE RAFAEL MMRCA

[klub]

Rafale by year end or so. Congi will try to win over arms lobby.

 

[MilSpec]

Let Me Stick My Neck Out!!!

Rafale is not going to be cancelled, Dassault is already running full swing in production planning for the initial batch of fully built units for India, the only difference is going to be, french are going to get twice the number of initial built in france rafale. DB is also going to get a bigger share of tooling setup for HAL's rafale Line....

My request to members here would be stop infusing doubts on rafale in the mind of other members, and I would highly recommend newer members to stop pitiching ridiculous ideas about PMF FGFA and Su35BM ever coming into picture to offset MMRCA.

thanks

 

[Invincible INDIAN]

Let Me Stick My Neck Out!!!

Rafale is not going to be cancelled, Dassault is already running full swing in production planning for the initial batch of fully built units for India, the only difference is going to be, french are going to get twice the number of initial built in france rafale. DB is also going to get a bigger share of tooling setup for HAL's rafale Line....

My request to members here would be stop infusing doubts on rafale in the mind of other members, and I would highly recommend newer members to stop pitiching ridiculous ideas about PMF FGFA and Su35BM ever coming into picture to offset MMRCA.

thanks

Taking you for granted in faith. Thanks again. I was really feeling bad about MMRCA... now its fine

For bold part, it means we are going to have 200+ rafales in that case?

 

[Sergi]

Let Me Stick My Neck Out!!!

Rafale is not going to be cancelled, Dassault is already running full swing in production planning for the initial batch of fully built units for India, the only difference is going to be, french are going to get twice the number of initial built in france rafale. DB is also going to get a bigger share of tooling setup for HAL's rafale Line....

My request to members here would be stop infusing doubts on rafale in the mind of other members, and I would highly recommend newer members to stop pitiching ridiculous ideas about PMF FGFA and Su35BM ever coming into picture to offset MMRCA.

thanks

If everything you write is true then its the best deal for IAF and would be a faster induction than expected
I am just wondering how did HAL accept that ??? Or they were just cut short by MOD ???

 

[MilSpec]

If everything you write is true then its the best deal for IAF and would be a faster induction than expected
I am just wondering how did HAL accept that ??? Or they were just cut short by MOD ???

this is what is being pushed, In the ideal world if I was in the process I would have pushed back for at least the tooling part of the deal, I dont care how many aircraft DB builds. But then again there are some issues also with getting DMG, NT, OKK, KTM etc too and their maintenance becomes an issue too.. I can understand the french position too, it's not always about getting the best manufacturing setup in the plant, it is all about getting a machine tooling which your maintenance team can support and calibrate without have to bring in specialists from Germany or japan everytime something goes wrong.

I dont know on the official level what has been accepted, but if you get the gist, this might be one of the options in store...

 

[Sergi]

this is what is being pushed, In the ideal world if I was in the process I would have pushed back for at least the tooling part of the deal, I dont care how many aircraft DB builds. But then again there are some issues also with getting DMG, NT, OKK, KTM etc too and their maintenance becomes an issue too.. I can understand the french position too, it's not always about getting the best manufacturing setup in the plant, it is all about getting a machine tooling which your maintenance team can support and calibrate without have to bring in specialists from Germany or japan everytime something goes wrong.

I dont know on the official level what has been accepted, but if you get the gist, this might be one of the options in store...

That's a bad news then. AFAIK HAL is against increasing the off shelf numbers as they want to do it all by themselves.

Second option was to go for follow on clause in main tender 126+ 64 and get 42 off-shelf from DB. But didn't know what happen to at as well.

There is no doubt rafale is going to come but only question is how fast. Hope HAL look at IAF too rather than just their production line.

 

[shiv]

Dassault has a huge office near M.G Road in bangalore !

 

[Pakistanisage]

Increasinglu unlikely that rafael may not happen at all i just wanted to share what the IAF may end up looking like as result between now and 2022 which is when the FGFA will hopefully arrive

272 su30mki (include 42 super sukhoi) = 15 sqds by 2019
Current fleet is 170 fighters and 9 sqds approx

51 mirage2000-9 massively upgraded at $40 million each with radars. mica BVRS and ecms etc. BY 2019 = 3 sqds
Current just MIRAGE2000H

63 MIG29 SMT by 2015 = 3 Sqds

40 Tejas mk1 = 2 SDQS hopefully by 2018

72 jaguar upgraded to darin 2 and new engines by 2019

= 486 fighters in just 27 sqds

PS this is as bad as i see it getting and will stil be a much larger air force than all
BUT USA USSR CHINA ...

My Indian Friends you do know that the French Fighter is called RAFALE and NOT RAFAEL.

 

[Sergi]

Don't you INDIANS know that the French Fighter is called RAFALE and NOT RAFAEL.

No we didn't till you tell us. Thanks for enlightening us.

 

[Abingdonboy]

Don't you INDIANS know that the French Fighter is called RAFALE and NOT RAFAEL.

Fair point- if you can't even get the most basic things right then how can you expect anyone to read your analysis with an open mind?


I'm just going to post what I wrote in another thread which pretty much sums up my thoughts on this issue:

And that would be? Seriously I feel it is Rafale of bust. If the Rafale deal calls through for whatever reason the IAF is going to be stuck with the current situation- LCA trudging along, MKIs on order (maybe a few more SQDs if the Rafale deal is called off), FGFA under devlopment and the AMCA just on the horizon. Faced with a self-imposed 2019 deadline for all MIG-21 and 27 and many Jags to be phased out the IAF is facing a very acute SQD numbers crunch and unless the intake increases the SQD strength is going to plummet come 2019 and won't recover for a good 4-6 years to pre-2019 levels (which are already way below the sanctioned strength of the IAF).The IAF said it wanted and is planning for 45-50 fighter SQDs by 2027-30.

The EFT is a no go IMHO despite it being the L2 bidder.

Even if the EFT goes through you're looking at post 2019 deleiveries IMHO as it will take a good 2-3 years just to hammer out a deal and then another 3 years for first delivery. The case would be the same for additional MKI orders, you're not going to get delivers of these extra units for a good 4-5 years and then one has to ask what damage would an extension to HAL's MKI production lines do to the IAF's FGFA production as the FGFA is set to use the exact same MKI production lines and the FGFA's current production timelines are based on MKI prodcition coming to an end by the end of this decade for which re- tooling and expansion at Nasik has already begun. The knock-on effect to the FGFA program (an incredibly important project for the IAF) could be signifcant.

Then one has to say that neither the MKI nor EFT to adequately meet the IAF's vision for their Rafale's ie multi-role assets focusing primarily on the strike role. The MKI's is designated an "Air Dominace" fighter by the IAF. The EFT's A2G Capabilties or rather lack thereof have been clearly exposed and the all-solving Tranche 3 upgrade is a long way off and mostly unfunded by the partner nations as of now. The EFT too is designed to fight more in the A2A domain. The Rafale really is what the IAF wants and needs.


Like I said, it really is Rafale or bust for India/the IAF too (just don't tell the French that ).

Actually I would really like @sandy_3126 thoughts on this specifically what adverse affect a follow on order for more MKIs being built at HAL's Nasik plant would have on FGFA production? Of course there would be a knock-on effect but how serious do you see the FGFA profject being hit if MKI production is eked out for a few more years?

 

[MilSpec]

That's a bad news then. AFAIK HAL is against increasing the off shelf numbers as they want to do it all by themselves.

Second option was to go for follow on clause in main tender 126+ 64 and get 42 off-shelf from DB. But didn't know what happen to at as well.

There is no doubt rafael is going to come but only question is how fast. Hope HAL look at IAF too rather than just their production line.

Bad or good might be the way where you plant your shoes. Sure if you were the looking through HAL's perspective, it might be loss of oppurtunity, but then again they have given away larger oppurtunities by sheer magnitude of institutional inaction. I used to have a similar swadeshi attitude but actions of governmental agencies have long burst that bubble. I do care about the sqdn strength (both quantitative and qualitative), if achieving that goal at the fastest possible time means going through a critical path method which suggests sourcing more jets from DB for rafale and more jets from RAC for MKI, I am all for it.... HAL has been given meat on the platter, if they can't cook it in time , it's thier shortfall and there is no need for MoD to bail em out of this.

 

[Sergi]

Bad or good might be the way where you plant your shoes. Sure if you were the looking through HAL's perspective, it might be loss of oppurtunity, but then again they have given away larger oppurtunities by sheer magnitude of institutional inaction. I used to have a similar swadeshi attitude but actions of governmental agencies have long burst that bubble. I do care about the sqdn strength (both quantitative and qualitative), if achieving that goal at the fastest possible time means going through a critical path method which suggests sourcing more jets from DB for rafale and more jets from RAC for MKI, I am all for it.... HAL has been given meat on the platter, if they can't cook it in time , it's thier shortfall and there is no need for MoD to bail em out of this.

I was talking for IAF. I don't care HAL miss out on anything. They never ever have kept any timeline and I am not going to believe them unless and until they prove me wrong.

Taking good number of jets from DB will make IAF to prepare operational doctrine ASAP and they can make more pilots familiar with the platform.

Say we get 42/46 off-shelf and leave the rest to build in HAL then situation wont be too bad. HAL will get to produce 120+ and IAF will get 3 Suds so before 2018 we could have 5/6 operational Sqds
Win win for all parties. Just HAL should agree or MOD should make them

 

[MilSpec]

Actually I would really like @sandy_3126 thoughts on this specifically what adverse affect a follow on order for more MKIs being built at HAL's Nasik plant would have on FGFA production? Of course there would be a knock-on effect but how serious do you see the FGFA profject being hit if MKI production is eked out for a few more years?

(I will try to answer this but please be aware I dont have any information on how many units are planned for P1, p2 and p3 transition, so I have a big handicap in exactly balancing the line formations.)

Sometimes the right answer is the most obvious one. If there are follow on order for MKI, and thier timeline clashes with early launch containment of PMF FGFA, there are three distinct options:

1> Build additional facilities for Phase 1 tech transfer for PMF,
Theoretically assume - 20 sets of manufacturing stations create one aircraft in 23 days, then 40 sets should build two and 400 sets should build 20 a/c in the same lead time. But that also means 40 sets of a/c will enter overhaul together. from both economic and operational standpoint you need have 12-20 aircraft built every year.
Nasik divsion will complete MKI production and move assembly tooling to overhaul hangar to support mki operations, building additional facilities for PMF and then adapting the same manufacturing system in existing MKIlines will be extremely painful but is not impossible- It will provide you additional maunfacturing capability as the solution suggests but it will not be economical and will cost you a lot of money.

2> Build initial 25 units of PAKFA single seat in RAC and let MKI finish it's production run.
RAC will be very happy, will cost us higher prices, as the solution suggests and HAL will get a free pass...

3> My preffered option would be:
plan for final number of MKI and establish a finish date, Assume at 2014 you know that you need to make 120 aircrafts by the end of 2017,and you know HAL has production capability for 60. We need to source out either 60 a/c's straight out to RAC, and 60 by HAL, or even better would be start moving HAL's manufacturing lines and hold on to assembly lines and start ordering CKD's for 100 MKI's from MKI and assemble them in HAL, and transition in PMF FGFA.

Unfortunately, all governmental agencies are marred by reactionary steps rather than any foresight in proaction, so the most likely scenario will be delay...

 

[Gessler]

Rafale is not going to be cancelled. At most it will be delayed post-2014 in which case IAF will ask
France to build atleast ~40 Rafales in Dassault's plants itself, while HAL builds up indigenous production
capabilities at Bangalore. Which will only translate into faster induction.

 

[Pakistanisage]

No we didn't till you tell us. Thanks for enlightening us.

I guess English grammar is not your strong suit !