America's 7 mistakes in Afghanistan

[MandarK]

Adoption of Indian policy and synchronized vision was the biggest blunder US has made so far in Afghanistan. You can't afford to have India in Afghanistan while you want Pakistan to be on your side.

US adopted Indian policy??

 

[hunter_hunted]

Well it means Pakistan rules and the game start and end with Pakistan so bharti STFU and get lost. If u bhartis can do better than US and Pakistan then u r welcome to come onboard otherwise go back to ur hole we all know what u r capable of.

 

[Shardul.....the lion]

After reading the opinion of Pak posters, I am feeling proud of desi babus in ministry of foreign affairs.

Americans following Indian policy in Afghanistan, vow..

But unfortunately its not the case, its just that 9/11 converged american and Indian interests in South Asia.

 

[VCheng]

In this connection i would also like to add that the US spends approx $11.2 Billion (thrice the Defence Budget of #Pakistan) to train, equip and feed free burgers and cokes to ANA (strength 0.2M) annually. My concern is that how Afghanistan will sustain these soldiers who have become habitual of Western standards, American equipment and their food, especially if Afghanistan dont even has an established 'Taxation System'?.............

Afghan forces will get about $4.1 billion direct aid annually from ISAF/NATO, plus another $4 billion annually for civil support, well beyond 2014.

 

[Alienoz_TR]

I was in the last class of high school, when 9/11 happened. I remember saying to my German English-teacher: "Osama Bin Laden is my hero". Woman was shocked.

Jokes aside, 10 years are lotsa time.

 

[Kompromat]

US adopted Indian policy??

Support of Ex communist N.Alliance who "welcomed" an Invasion force into their country. N.Alliance was fully funded by India, while taliban offered to hand over Osama after the US provides the evidence, US hooked up with India to get N.alliance support instead. for what?

Bush rejects Taliban offer to hand Bin Laden over | World news | guardian.co.uk

Imagine if the simply took, bin laden, how many Afghans would have been breathing today - but they didn't because they would rather spend 4 trillion dollars to chase and kill him in a dubious zombie hunt in Pakistan - or the americans have an agenda that goes beyond everyone's imagination.

Afghan forces will get about $4.1 billion direct aid annually from ISAF/NATO, plus another $4 billion annually for civil support, well beyond 2014.

That translates into $4 billion dollars being given to an Army made up of ex- communist rebels which systematically has excluded, majority Pashtuns. That is a civil war recipe.

 

[VCheng]

..............
Imagine if the simply took, bin laden, how many Afghans would have been breathing today - but they didn't because they would rather spend 4 trillion dollars to chase and kill him in a dubious zombie hunt in Pakistan - or the americans have an agenda that goes beyond everyone's imagination.

So what is this "unimaginable" US agenda? Let's hear your thoughts about it in detail, if you please.

 

[Kompromat]

So what is this "unimaginable" US agenda? Let's hear your thoughts about it in detail, if you please.

Advantage 1

"US has two big advantages over China"


1: China is world's largest producer of goods.
2: US is its biggest buyer = According to the laws of economics , buyer is stronger than the supplier and therefore has political leverage over the supplier.

Chinese industrial machine is focused on lower and middle class products. American economy is collapsing and has been for quite a while considering their borrowing mechanism from the Fed which is a private bank and has the right to print the money. Every single US dollar is printed by FRB and then "lent" to the US govt one 1% interest/dollar. The govt makes it a legal tender and the note flows in the economy. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand that its a never ending cycle of debt because the money US pays back to FRB is also printed by FRB and is lent through the same process.

Chinese are too dependent on the US for sales of their goods which is a bad thing in the future and also it allows the US and EU to exercise power projection over China. Now China wanted to counter that by creating the Shanghai Cooperation Organization SCO in 1996 to counter the US hold over trade. What Chinese planned to do is to enter into free market/currency swap agreements with the govts in Asia which would have benefited everyone in the region through the creation of an "alternative market".

SCO countries have a huge growing middle class and can therefore offer China the opportunity to cut its dependence over America and EU for doing trade by becoming the future alternative market.

By looking at the map, of the SCO member states it doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand that we are talking about more than 50% of global population,70% or so of global youth population

---

, all of them have enormous amounts of mineral,gas,oil,water resources as well as a mammoth agricultural potential to deal with the food security which according to UN is the next big challenge. All of these countries are geographically linked to each other, which means highways, railways for logistics instead of ships which means cheaper transport,which means cheaper products,which means more consumption and more production. All in all a win win situation for all member states, and for China as they would cut their dependency on the US for trade to a great extent hence lowering the level of leverage US holds over China.

Advantage II

What runs Chinese economy? Factories- what runs factories ? - energy which comes from oil which comes from the middle east, Africa and S.America. That may sound casual, but Chinese economy will start consuming 1.5 billion barrels of crude per year from 2015. 70% of Chinese oil comes from the middle east, which sounds casual but how does that oil get to China?- Through ships, how do the ships get to China? -sea route.

The straight of hormoez is a bottleneck, so is Persian/Arabian gulf, Chinese oil gets laid on ships and sails across the shore lines of all middle eastern states, Pakistan, Indian ocean, Malaka straights, S.China sea, then it reaches Shanghai gets off loaded, processed and distributed uninterrupted in a country as big as China. It is a highly inefficient way of getting oil as you pay for ships,their fuel, labor,insurance,security,ecological disasters and yes it takes about 20-25 days to reach China.

It all sounds casual until you find out that US Navy has a Naval base in Bahrain, Army bases in Qatar, Kwait , Iraq USAF has an air base in UAE, then you have around 2500kms long Indian Coastline around which this oil sails and yes not to forget the USAF has an air base in Deiago Garcia islands, then you have Vietnam, Philippines, Taiwan, countries that are all hostile to China, lastly US is now seeking naval bases in Bangladesh, Australia, Philippines and Vietnam for what?If you didn't ride my drift yet, the advantage two is that the US completely dominates China's "energy security" by systematic trans national partnerships with countries who have subscribed to the US strategy of Chinese containment.

Chinese want to have an alternative, keeping this situation in mind. That alternative is called the Eurasian logistic and energy corridor project. They want pipes through land routes because the USN dominates the seas.

1: TAPI pipeline
2: Iran Pakistan India China oil pipeline
3: Tajikistan Afghanistan China gas pipeline
4: Russia , CAR , Afghanistan , Pakistan , India logistical transit route which will link Karakoram highway which links China too.
5: China, Pakistan , Iran , Turkey Railway and highway project [Operational from Turkey to Pakistan already]
6: Gawadar deep sea port, for oil transit from Saudi Arabia, Kwait , Iraq into Pakistan and China.


Conclusion: It doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand that the war in Afghanistan has bigger goals for America and if the above project comes true the US will lose its leverage over China which means big things. They control the seas, Chinese moved to the ground, they want to hold the ground in Afghanistan because all of the above projects either directly go through Afghanistan or are geographically located as such that the US can still try and project power through its proxies be it the Afghan govt or Terrorist groups in Pakistan.

US wants to use Afghanistan's geographical important to stop the Asian century project or delaying it until they can recover their economy. US loves its superpower status which was achieved after bombing millions of innocent human beings to death either overtly or covertly. The US neocons have an agenda of an "American century" which will not come true until they contain the SCO economies in the next 25 years. For that they need physical presence in the region, ie permanent bases in Afghanistan to fight a long lasting covert economic battle against the SCO.

Chinese economy in 2040 would be 123 trillion dollars, which is more than the global GDP put together in 1999. Not to forget the other SCO economies like Russia, CAR , India , Iran , Pakistan, Mongolia have huge potential and would be bigger than the economies of many US allies.

Now that is what i call a threat and this is where i see the 4 trillion USD war investment is going. The return on investment is definitely much bigger than, dislodging a regime US helped put into place, trained and armed itself , or useful idiots like Al-Qaeda members. They are no threat to the US or its allies, Taliban can barely become an efficient deterrent or an insurgent group as per their military capabilities plus they don't pose any economic threat to the US. Therefore they are not worth such a big investment, as the US can bomb the crap out them anytime they desire. The SCO project is worth such a huge investment, containment of the SCO is worth such an investment.

Pakistan: Keeping the rest in mind, you should be able to see why BLA has started terrorism campaign in Pakistan, why it was debated in the US congress and why Chinese support Pakistan so much. Its because we are central to everything happening around us.

Although, in my noob humble view much is left to be played out, we are at the interval, the last scene of the movie is yet to be played. The end in my view is not going to look nice for the US and its hegemonic agenda nor for its naive,redneck neocon think tanks and policy makers.

My two cents.

Regards:

 

[Ticker]

sometimes i really think that you are really asleep or pretend to sleep while typing all these....Keeping country together is always the topmost priority for any country in the world.And for poverty Jumla i 'll say i would have my poverty and freedom then prostituting myself for money. Thats what india did and did rightly stherwise with easy money its like chaar din ki chandani fir andheri raat.Going to russia had nothing to do with indian economic policies.India always kept its distance from superpowers and still doing so.Cold war days it was necessary to keep distance from west..looking at pakistan today i must appreciate nehru did made right choice in 1947-1963.Russia was last resort to balance USA threats in 1971 hence USSR-indian friendship treaty was inked and worked well for india.but India never fought any super powers's war.Nationalization and licence raj i wonder who learnt from who was it bhutto first to implement it or Indira.Poverty sure india has but those many crores india pulled out of poverty since 47 is sure commendable job.I worked in this field so i know how much india has done in poverty elevation and no my information dont come from economist or bbc my information is compiled right on ground by us..
Stairs india built is not rickety its as strong and getting stronger haan its old but there are some termite but hay we have termite spray for that. And yes when i say i say with confidence that india dont have habit of dancing to usa tunes in strategic fields.Right Now NAM-2 is shaping shape in iran.And its your dreams that usa can pull india in its games like it pulled pakistan.India always keeps strategic independence.

with time chotay haathi avoid baday haati but jab woh bady ho jate hain to thokar bhi maar dete hain purane haathi ko.

I wish I could sleep through the trying moments of a nation. And I wish, I could call myself free and remain free while living under poverty. The emotions, exuberance of rhetoric and cold realism are all different notions and present different and varying environment.

India and Pakistan followed different paths after independence. India having established systems, needed to maintain itself and grow as a country to the vision of its leaders. Contrarily, Pakistan being a new country on the horizon had not only to survive but also needed to sustain and build its systems to grow out of India’s shadow.

Both countries prostituted for money and security. India, while remaining under the false pretence and cover of NAM, prostituted for Soviet Union, Pakistan joined the opposing system and did the same for the US and the West. Incidentally, India’s bashful lover and provider, the Soviet Union died of ignominy and Pakistan’s, lost interest in it.

Your emotional and exuberance of rhetoric notwithstanding, after the sadness of losing the bashful lovers, both were seeking a fresh aficionado. However, this time there was only one to choose from. The US of A.

In 1960s US attempted to play what it called, a strategy of pivotal statecraft. It entailed enticing both India and Pakistan to reconcile their differences through pivotal statecraft. However, India found Soviets and Pakistan allied with China. The pimp thus lost the leverage over her prostitutes. This time around however, a similar pivotal statecraft had a chance of some success as there was only one bashful lover left to fight for. The event of 9/11 momentarily shifted the bashful lover’s gratitude to other pressing needs. Taking this advantage, a second procurer emerged on the scene known by the name of China.

Both providers of lust for gratitude are still fighting for the same bashful lover. However, India has only USA while Pakistan has USA and China both. India therefore does not have the option of changing the bashful lover, while Pakistan can opt for China if USA misbehaves.

India, in her effort to seek an alternative to bashful US of A, is attempting to find a solution in the old wine and is naming it, NAM-2. Though the cover may remain NAM-2, India would still provide the lust for gratitude to bashful US of A.

This is real-politik and your emotions and those of many others will only remain emotions which have no value within the ambiance of real-politik.

 

[VCheng]

Thank you for that detailed post. Please allow me to present a point by point response for discussion:

Advantage 1

"US has two big advantages over China"


1: China is world's largest producer of goods.
2: US is its biggest buyer = According to the laws of economics , buyer is stronger than the supplier and therefore has political leverage over the supplier.

China is the largest producer of only certain types of goods, not all of them. Further, it relies on a global supply chain for many of the components that go into its products too, so it is not isolated. China is the largest trading partner of more than 30 countries, not just USA.

Thus, the above two points are naive. China particpates in the global economy and neither China nor USA can hold each other to any forcible position by virtue of a buyer-supplier relationship alone.

Chinese industrial machine is focused on lower and middle class products. American economy is collapsing and has been for quite a while considering their borrowing mechanism from the Fed which is a private bank and has the right to print the money. Every single US dollar is printed by FRB and then "lent" to the US govt one 1% interest/dollar. The govt makes it a legal tender and the note flows in the economy. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand that its a never ending cycle of debt because the money US pays back to FRB is also printed by FRB and is lent through the same process.

Chinese industrial capacity is rapidly progressing towards more complex products as it improves facilites and expertise, as it is right. However, as said above, increasgin complexity of products also means more integration into the global supply and commerce chain, which is advanatageous for all parties, not just China.

A detailed discussion of the Fed is not for this topic I feel, but suffice to say here that the US economy is not collapsing. It would be a mistake to assume that it is. The Euro was touted as a rival to the US dollar, and we can see that it is on its last legs. Once the Euro is dispatched as a serious challenger to the dollar, the US economy will rebound quite predictably.

It will take another few decades of growth and liberalization, including free convertibility, for the yuan to be taken as the next challenger, at the earliest.

Chinese are too dependent on the US for sales of their goods which is a bad thing in the future and also it allows the US and EU to exercise power projection over China. Now China wanted to counter that by creating the Shanghai Cooperation Organization SCO in 1996 to counter the US hold over trade. What Chinese planned to do is to enter into free market/currency swap agreements with the govts in Asia which would have benefited everyone in the region through the creation of an "alternative market".

As I said above, China trades the world over as an important producer and consumer, and will always continue to do so. The SCO cannot and will not replace that global participation.

SCO countries have a huge growing middle class and can therefore offer China the opportunity to cut its dependence over America and EU for doing trade by becoming the future alternative market.

Please keep in mind that all the SCO countries will trade globally as well, not just with China.

By looking at the map (Edit: Map removed for brevity, please refer to original post), of the SCO member states it doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand that we are talking about more than 50% of global population,70% or so of global youth population

---

, all of them have enormous amounts of mineral,gas,oil,water resources as well as a mammoth agricultural potential to deal with the food security which according to UN is the next big challenge. All of these countries are geographically linked to each other, which means highways, railways for logistics instead of ships which means cheaper transport,which means cheaper products,which means more consumption and more production. All in all a win win situation for all member states, and for China as they would cut their dependency on the US for trade to a great extent hence lowering the level of leverage US holds over China.

---

This massive new and growing market is not just for the member states, but for all major producers of goods and services, since all the SCO countries will trade globally, as I have said before.

Advantage II

What runs Chinese economy? Factories- what runs factories ? - energy which comes from oil which comes from the middle east, Africa and S.America. That may sound casual, but Chinese economy will start consuming 1.5 billion barrels of crude per year from 2015. 70% of Chinese oil comes from the middle east, which sounds casual but how does that oil get to China?- Through ships, how do the ships get to China? -sea route.

70% from the Middle East? China buys oil globally, and the Middle East does NOT supply 70% of its imports:

The straight of hormoez is a bottleneck, so is Persian/Arabian gulf, Chinese oil gets laid on ships and sails across the shore lines of all middle eastern states, Pakistan, Indian ocean, Malaka straights, S.China sea, then it reaches Shanghai gets off loaded, processed and distributed uninterrupted in a country as big as China. It is a highly inefficient way of getting oil as you pay for ships,their fuel, labor,insurance,security,ecological disasters and yes it takes about 20-25 days to reach China.

Chinese net oil purchases are about 5.5 million barrels per day, and oil tankers are one of the most efficient and lowest cost bulk transportation options available for such huge quantities needed by the rapidly growing Chinese economy.

It all sounds casual until you find out that US Navy has a Naval base in Bahrain, Army bases in Qatar, Kwait , Iraq USAF has an air base in UAE, then you have around 2500kms long Indian Coastline around which this oil sails and yes not to forget the USAF has an air base in Deiago Garcia islands, then you have Vietnam, Philippines, Taiwan, countries that are all hostile to China, lastly US is now seeking naval bases in Bangladesh, Australia, Philippines and Vietnam for what?If you didn't ride my drift yet, the advantage two is that the US completely dominates China's "energy security" by systematic trans national partnerships with countries who have subscribed to the US strategy of Chinese containment.

Please keep in mind that Russia is one of the world's largest reserves of energy, and right next to China, with no options for USA to realistically contain those supplies. Further, crippling the Chinese economy would have a devastating effect on the global economy, including the USA's. Particpation in growth is the key thing to remember.

Chinese want to have an alternative, keeping this situation in mind. That alternative is called the Eurasian logistic and energy corridor project. They want pipes through land routes because the USN dominates the seas.

1: TAPI pipeline
2: Iran Pakistan India China oil pipeline
3: Tajikistan Afghanistan China gas pipeline
4: Russia , CAR , Afghanistan , Pakistan , India logistical transit route which will link Karakoram highway which links China too.
5: China, Pakistan , Iran , Turkey Railway and highway project [Operational from Turkey to Pakistan already]
6: Gawadar deep sea port, for oil transit from Saudi Arabia, Kwait , Iraq into Pakistan and China.

Like I said before, Russia is next door, directly, as well as a large number of Central Asian countries. Why would China want to take a detour through Pakistan for its energy supplies?

Further, consider the logistics of an oil pipeline through the northern areas of Pakistan. As an exercise, please consider a pipeline project supplying 1 million barrels of oil per day over the 16,000 ft high Khunjerab Pass, through all months of the year, complete with pumping stations and servicing and security issues through an active earthquake zone (remember Attabad Lake?). Let's start with design, financing and construction, let alone reliable operation for years and years afterwards.

(If you consider road transport via KKH as an option, it will take about 5,500 18-wheeler tanker trucks to transport a million barrels of crude, roughly - per day, every day throughout the year. Try that as a logistics exercise too, please.)

Conclusion: It doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand that the war in Afghanistan has bigger goals for America and if the above project comes true the US will lose its leverage over China which means big things. They control the seas, Chinese moved to the ground, they want to hold the ground in Afghanistan because all of the above projects either directly go through Afghanistan or are geographically located as such that the US can still try and project power through its proxies be it the Afghan govt or Terrorist groups in Pakistan.

If China has "moved to the ground", Afghanistan is certainly not it, but rather directly westwards through Russia and CAS to the EU and onwards. However, trading across the Pacific to USA and Australia will be ever more important too.

US wants to use Afghanistan's geographical important to stop the Asian century project or delaying it until they can recover their economy. US loves its superpower status which was achieved after bombing millions of innocent human beings to death either overtly or covertly. The US neocons have an agenda of an "American century" which will not come true until they contain the SCO economies in the next 25 years. For that they need physical presence in the region, ie permanent bases in Afghanistan to fight a long lasting covert economic battle against the SCO.

As I have explained above, Afghanistan's location is nowhere as important as you are assuming it to be, for either China or USA.

Chinese economy in 2040 would be 123 trillion dollars, which is more than the global GDP put together in 1999. Not to forget the other SCO economies like Russia, CAR , India , Iran , Pakistan, Mongolia have huge potential and would be bigger than the economies of many US allies.

The Chinese economy is growing rapidly, yes, but it will find maintaining that rate of growth increasing difficult in the years ahead due to a complex combination of several factors.

Now that is what i call a threat and this is where i see the 4 trillion USD war investment is going. The return on investment is definitely much bigger than, dislodging a regime US helped put into place, trained and armed itself , or useful idiots like Al-Qaeda members. They are no threat to the US or its allies, Taliban can barely become an efficient deterrent or an insurgent group as per their military capabilities plus they don't pose any economic threat to the US. Therefore they are not worth such a big investment, as the US can bomb the crap out them anytime they desire. The SCO project is worth such a huge investment, containment of the SCO is worth such an investment.

You will find that USA will not even try to contain SCO, but will participate in the growth of its markets to mutual advantages. That is the way the global economy works.

Pakistan: Keeping the rest in mind, you should be able to see why BLA has started terrorism campaign in Pakistan, why it was debated in the US congress and why Chinese support Pakistan so much. Its because we are central to everything happening around us.

BLA and the troubles in Baluchistan are another matter, and certainly NOT because Paksitan is central to anything discussed above.

Although, in my noob humble view much is left to be played out, we are at the interval, the last scene of the movie is yet to be played. The end in my view is not going to look nice for the US and its hegemonic agenda nor for its naive,redneck neocon think tanks and policy makers.

My two cents.

Regards:

Here, I will agree with you, finally, that the end result is still to be played out, with the observation that if it is not going to be "nice" for USA, it is far more likely to be catastrophically worse for Pakistan by comparison, unless its policies change soon, effectively, and in the right direction.

 

[Xeric]

Afghan forces will get about $4.1 billion direct aid annually from ISAF/NATO, plus another $4 billion annually for civil support, well beyond 2014.

And that is going to solve the problem, right?

Seems legit

 

[VCheng]

And that is going to solve the problem, right?

Seems legit

Well, Sir, it all depends on how one defines said "problem".

 

[Riteon]

Well it means Pakistan rules and the game start and end with Pakistan so bharti STFU and get lost. If u bhartis can do better than US and Pakistan then u r welcome to come onboard otherwise go back to ur hole we all know what u r capable of.

Yes i assume you know what we are capable of sitting in out hole......the last few wars for a piece of our hole was just that

 

[VCheng]

No responses to #55 above?

 

[Armstrong]

No responses to #55 above?

Sir Jee itna baraa novel aap hi parein !