Wow, it's like walking into a kindergarten playground.
Instead of acting like 5 year olds, maybe the Elite forum member should do some research into the points that Jhungary is making.
My International Trade training and experience tells me that he is right on the money wrt the need for a trade balance.
One of the main immediate impacts would be the loss of one of many trade intelligence resources for the US. Trust me, large international USD transactions are closely monitored. (Anything of 10K if memory serves me)
That being said, it seems to become clear that more and more countries are considering alternatives to the USD.
Yet we must not forget that the USA knows very well how to ensure people do not lose faith in the USD, even though history does tell us that "super powers" and "world orders" come and go.
Nothing in this world is static, it may just seem that way when the corrections are frequent and small.
Trade balance is not going to be affecting currency strength very much, because you don't have enough trade balance to affect the currency settlement volume. You are talking about hundred of billion a year (Again, we are talking about TRADE BALANCE not trade volume) to Quadrillion of year of settlement using USD in a single year, in fact 305 days a year.
As a matter of fact, if you look at Settlement report from CIPS, SWIFT, and SFMS, the more diversify the payment being used, the more it actually benefit the USD, because you would have to transfer the volume of trade from your local currency into Yuan, which you would need to route thru USD. Especially CIPS, which til now still have a great share in settlement with USD and RMB is not even half the volume of settlement for their own inter-bank company...
On the other hand, it's very easy to look at how country switch to Yuan payment impact US dollar strength. That is by looking at the conversion rate between USD to RMB.
It was largely unchanged and unaffected by the news of country switching to Yuan for payment, in fact, the only event that significantly shifted the dynamic is the 2020-2022 COVID lock down in China which strengthen the USD, and RMB is actually weaker against the green bag since 2023 when they announce all those switch, that's mostly because people speculated that would put pressure on RMB.
And finally, US has a negative trade balance since 1980s, and is not a manufacturer powerhouse since probably late 70s, did anyone able to replace the USD in the last 50 years or so?