American sponsored Taliban and implications for Pakistan

[CriticalThought]

The Afghan Taliban, call it their strength or weakness are not very flexible. Indeed had they been pragmatic they would still have been in power in 2018 because in 2001 they would have very sensibly hauled over Bin Laden to USA and even 'exported' rest of his Arabs of AQ for few $ billions. But as you know at point of gun they refused. Rest is history. Even today their core demand is "USA out" and that will not change come what may. So I struggle to see how Taliban are going to become vanguards of US interests after having blown the original jackpot 18 years ago and handing it to Northern Alliance.

To be sure Taliban were never subserviant to anyone even at the height of their rule in Kabul when Pakistan and UAE were only countries that recognized them. Their position on Durand and other issues with Pakistan remained and could often be crude. They for instance had the Pakistani football team lashed [despite Pakistan doing everything to stop them] in Kabul for wearing shorts.

However compared to Northern Alliance and NUG of today [which are actually the same thing] Taliban were very pro Pakistan. It's like Spain and Ireland with UK. Both countries have issues [Gibralter/Ulster] but that does not stop them from having functioning relationship with UK. From Pakistan's perspective the best thing is USA leaves, Taliban gain more influence and China/Russia play a greater role. This would reduce Indian influence in Afghanistan and would the best Pakistan can expect.

You are mistaken if you think the Americans will directly buy the Taliban. On issues like Xinjiang, they need only exploit their natural Islamic sensibility. With Pakistan, the debacle can be manufactured. What if a top Taliban leader is found dead with evidence pointing at Pakistan?

Everybody is for sale, but you think they control 70% of Afghanistan because aliens from mars are helping them.

Americans have themselves acknowledge that Taliban are getting arms from Russia and Iran.

 

[Indus Pakistan]

Nuclear weapons safeguard is a vital interest for them. In contrast, stability in Afghanistan is not considered vital.

I did. At no point in the book or the link you posted was there suggestion about "de-nuclearize" Pakistan. It simply is impossible. The nuclear infra is too widespread and consolidated over 40 years for it to be rolled back. The only possibility is a cap.

As regards concerns about security I think they are valid. When we have idiots like TLP who can bring the country to a stand still over a woman it does worry people. But again the assessement of "Quetta" is Pakistan Army officer cadre is disciplined, loyal to the army that supercedes sectarian or religious impulses. In other words the danger of a rogue Islamists officer is over blown. Furthermore they note the senior cadre are more biased to the west and hold very negative opinions of Arabs.

Everybody is for sale, but you think they control 70% of Afghanistan because aliens from mars are helping them.

Nah. But a certain lady does ...

 

[RoadRunner401]

Americans have themselves acknowledge that Taliban are getting arms from Russia and Iran.

Sorry, but sounds like you really don't have a clue!

 

[Indus Pakistan]

What if a top Taliban leader is found dead with evidence pointing at Pakistan?

What if a top Taliban leader is found dead stabbed with Trump's fingerprint on it?Why can't the same music be played in other direction? This CIA/Mossad thing is not one way street. ISI can also drive on the same highway.

 

[CriticalThought]

I did. At no point in the book or the link you posted was there suggestion about "de-nuclearize" Pakistan. It simply is impossible. The nuclear infra is too widespread and consolidated over 40 years for it to be rolled back. The only possibility is a cap.

It is disingenuous to search for the word 'de-nuclearize'. 'Nuclear weapons safeguard' is the more diplomatic term. The only safeguarded nuclear weapons are the ones no in Pakistan's hands.

As regards concerns about security I think they are valid. When we have idiots like TLP who can bring the country to a stand still over a woman it does worry people. But again the assessement of "Quetta" is Pakistan Army officer cadre is disciplined, loyal to the army that supercedes sectarian or religious impulses. In other words the danger of a rogue Islamists officer is over blown. Furthermore they note the senior cadre are more biased to the west and hold very negative opinions of Arabs.

Nah. But a certain lady does ...

The fact they take a keen interest in, and monitor the Islamization of army reveals their desire for secularism.

Anyway, the security threat being discussed on this thread is an American manufactured Afghan attack on Pakistan.

Sorry, but sounds like you really don't have a clue!

It is based on news reports in mainstream media. If you have know better, then present facts.

What if a top Taliban leader is found dead stabbed with Trump's fingerprint on it?Why can't the same music be played in other direction? This CIA/Mossad thing is not one way street. ISI can also drive on the same highway.

The OP is pointing at a possible danger. Proactive intervention by the security apparatus is most welcome.

 

[Indus Pakistan]

t is disingenuous to search for the word 'de-nuclearize'. 'Nuclear weapons safeguard' is the more diplomatic term. The only safeguarded nuclear weapons are the ones no in Pakistan's hands.

Words don't matter. The size, scale of Pakistan's nuclear footprint spread on a 200 million people country is beyond the power of any country - even USA and China combined to roll back. As you know every year the footprint is getting larger with Pakistan forecasted to exceed UK in number of nukes. This flies against th whole idea of 'Nuclear weapons safeguard' or any other term you want to use. The USA has even failed to prevent ISI to continue support of Afghan Taliban but you expect us to take seriously some Marvel Comic heroes are gonna land in Pakistan and whisk away the nukes. *chuckles*

Stan Lee is dead ...

 

[CriticalThought]

Words don't matter. The size, scale of Pakistan's nuclear footprint spread on a 200 million people country is beyond the power of any country - even USA and China combined to roll back. As you know every year the footprint is getting larger with Pakistan forecasted to exceed UK in number of nukes. This flies against th whole idea of 'Nuclear weapons safeguard' or any other term you want to use. The USA has even failed to prevent ISI to continue support of Afghan Taliban but you expect us to take seriously some Marvel Comic heroes are gonna land in Pakistan and whisk away the nukes. *chuckles*

Stan Lee is dead ...

Really, you need to be spoon-fed. Again, 'nuclear weapons safeguard' isn't about coming over and flying away with nukes. It is about pressurizing Pakistan to an extent where we give them up ourselves. In the context of current discussion, if Afghanistan attacks Pakistan, it is very easy for America to hint of a simultaneous attack by India unless we accept denuclearization.

 

[Indus Pakistan]

It is about pressurizing Pakistan to an extent where we give them up ourselves.

Well, this is all about the fuy we have in PM seat. If he is a cuckold like Musharaf then yeh, I can see nukes being sold. But if we have decent PM and a COAS with nuts all he has to do is place his fingers on the green button and watch how fast they all run away, including Americans. Ultimately it's all about having a strong, secular government that has nurtured strong alligience with athiest Chinese and where mullahs are muzzled or better exported to Chinese internment camps. Under such scenario no amount of US pressure would buckle Pakistan.

Moral of story. Let us unite under a secular, progressive, pro China Pakistan.

 

[VCheng]

Moral of story. Let us unite under a secular, progressive, pro China Pakistan.

A story or a fairy tale?

 

[CriticalThought]

Well, this is all about the fuy we have in PM seat. If he is a cuckold like Musharaf then yeh, I can see nukes being sold. But if we have decent PM and a COAS with nuts all he has to do is place his fingers on the green button and watch how fast they all run away, including Americans. Ultimately it's all about having a strong, secular government that has nurtured strong alligience with athiest Chinese and where mullahs are muzzled or better exported to Chinese internment camps. Under such scenario no amount of US pressure would buckle Pakistan.

Moral of story. Let us unite under a secular, progressive, pro China Pakistan.

Moral of the story, you fantasize too much. If you think anyone in our leadership has the balls to press the button, you are burying your head in the sand. The fact of the matter is that liberals want to live as servants of Western interests. Their cards are all laid bare. In Musharraf's time, there was actually talk of getting Pakistan declared the 51st state. There are absolutely no lows to which they are willing to descend. A materialistic, worldly leadership WILL hand over the nukes if enough pressure is applied.

 

[Abdussamad]

Wait then a leadership more interested in the next life will do what? Commit nuclear hara kiri taking 10s of millions of ordinary Pakistanis with it?

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

Good food for thought from the author!!! The US policy makers aren't fools!!! Taliban with them >> Taliban with Pak >>> Taliban with Russia/Iran!!!!! The Pak policy makers need to leverage the ground realities....

 

[Handshake]

Simple answer.
15 ghori missiles and we are done.

 

[Pan-Islamic-Pakistan]

In my opinion, I don’t think any amount of posturing to Taliban is going to get them on the US side. Neither can the US sell this at home or abroad, having demonized them into villainous caricatures who can only be taught by violence and destruction.

US will have to withdraw from Afg, and they will do their best to prop up their failed Kabul city state. However, the writing is on the wall.

China, Russia, CARs will have to accept a Taliban Afghanistan again, regardless of how much they may dislike it.

Actually in this scenario, Pakistan has the most to gain as Afghanistan will become solidly anti-Indian again and support the Kashmir cause. This would turn Pakistan solely eastward and transform us into a regional power as we are only defensive now.

Maybe this time we can finally resolve our outstanding issue of the Durand Line and begin pipelines through Afghanistan to tap CAR, independent of relying on only China.

 

[CriticalThought]

In my opinion, I don’t think any amount of posturing to Taliban is going to get them on the US side. Neither can the US sell this at home or abroad, having demonized them into villainous caricatures who can only be taught by violence and destruction.

US will have to withdraw from Afg, and they will do their best to prop up their failed Kabul city state. However, the writing is on the wall.

China, Russia, CARs will have to accept a Taliban Afghanistan again, regardless of how much they may dislike it.

Actually in this scenario, Pakistan has the most to gain as Afghanistan will become solidly anti-Indian again and support the Kashmir cause. This would turn Pakistan solely eastward and transform us into a regional power as we are only defensive now.

Maybe this time we can finally resolve our outstanding issue of the Durand Line and begin pipelines through Afghanistan to tap CAR, independent of relying on only China.

It can go either way. It all depends on what carrot is dangled in front of the Taliban, and whether they bite or not. Our security apparatus needs to be alert to this risk, and work tirelessly to mitigate it. If played correctly, Afghanistan should provide a natural strategic depth to us.