America will not defend Ukraine, for fear of China

[MH.Yang]

I work with both Chinese and Taiwanese engineers. Both like the status quo. I have been to Taiwan and China. The Taiwanese do not consider themselves Chinese outside of their ethnic origin. They know where their ancestors came from. But this is the present and they consider themselves Taiwanese.

Right now, the uncertainty is the willingness of the Taiwanese citizenry to fight. They are looking at the Ukrainians for inspiration. And if sentiments are that Taiwan be independent, the PLA will have a bloody and miserable occupation.

The fact is that Hong Kong has not shed a drop of blood, but all the judges, lawyers, media and so on left by Britain have been cleaned up.

You don't understand the pursuit of reunification in Chinese traditional culture, so you believe that the Taiwanese will engage in guerrilla warfare. PRC and Taiwan compete for "法统"and"道统". Once the competition is over, all Chinese will accept the result of the competition.

法統 - 维基百科，自由的百科全书

zh.m.wikipedia.org

道統 - 维基百科，自由的百科全书

zh.m.wikipedia.org

 

[Beast]

All the pro independence Taiwanese are cowards. And some idiot think they will engage in guerilla warfare with PLA in Taiwan. Lol...

 

[gambit]

think we are witnessing the revival of the Soviet Union? the good old days are coming back gambit you must be thrilled in the past few days!!

Thrill? Not really. I was active duty when the Berlin Wall fell and later the the Soviet Union collapsed. When the Soviet Union collapsed and on the news, everyone in the squadron breakroom said the Cold War ended. I was the only one who disagreed. As long as there are contestant ideologies, there will always be a Cold War in some form. Vlad the Invader simply proved me correct.

 

[gambit]

All the pro independence Taiwanese are cowards. And some idiot think they will engage in guerilla warfare with PLA in Taiwan. Lol...

What if I tell you that Russia promised IN WRITING that Russia will not attack Ukraine?

 

[MH.Yang]

Thrill? Not really. I was active duty when the Berlin Wall fell and later the the Soviet Union collapsed. When the Soviet Union collapsed and on the news, everyone in the squadron breakroom said the Cold War ended. I was the only one who disagreed. As long as there are contestant ideologies, there will always be a Cold War in some form. Vlad the Invader simply proved me correct.

Have you ever considered that if the USSR did not perish, it might be more in the interests of USA.
Because USA will be easier to unite China and the EU.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Equally important is how China feel.

Your China is observing this Russia-Ukraine war very carefully with regards to Taiwan. Not on how to invade Taiwan, but how to deal with the Taiwanese under Chinese occupation. The next stage of the Russia-Ukraine war will be guerrilla warfare and if the PLA succeed in landing on Taiwan, guerrilla warfare will be on the PLA's plate.

Recent news has it that over 10,000 small arms were given to the Ukrainians. In urban setting, that is deadly for any occupation force. See Iraq and Afghanistan for examples. Gun rights in Ukraine are not the same as the US Second Amendment but they are nearly permissive. Taiwanese may not have any experience with small arms as Ukrainians, but Taiwanese soldiers will be among the citizenry in a guerrilla warfare scenario, effectively arming the Taiwanese citizenry.

If the Russian army easily overrun the Ukrainians in guerrilla warfare, then the PLA will be confident. But if the Ukrainians make the occupation bloody and miserable for the Russian army, then the PLA will have that 'chilling message' that its time on Taiwan may not be so easy as propaganda make it out to be. Already signs are there for the Russian army that they will have another Chechnya on its hands. Both China and Taiwan are watching this war closely to hopefully apply the successes and avoid the failures by the Russian army. The US will NOT leave Taiwan defenseless. Over the next few months, the US and allies will turn Ukraine and Taiwan into porcupines. The WILL be plenty of Russian blood for China to see.

Mao literally wrote the book on guerilla warfare.

Historically, PLA neutralized KMT, Tibetan and Uighur guerillas back in the 50's with few losses.

 

[gambit]

Mao literally wrote the book on guerilla warfare.

Historically, PLA neutralized KMT, Tibetan and Uighur guerillas back in the 50's with few losses.

No, Mao did not. He wrote a failed military doctrine based on guerrilla warfare that have always existed. The People's War was an utter failure that the PLA had to abandon it.

 

[Beast]

What if I tell you that Russia promised IN WRITING that Russia will not attack Ukraine?

Russia promise will not attack Ukraine IF not provoke further.

Back to you to answer your US empty promise.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

No, Mao did not. He wrote a failed military doctrine based on guerrilla warfare that have always existed. The People's War was an utter failure that the PLA had to abandon it.

uh not sure how it failed considering it defeated the KMT and killed more UN forces in Korea than China lost even by US estimates.

you also failed to address the historical fact that all insurgencies against the PLA have been crushed.

 

[gambit]

Russia promise will not attack Ukraine IF not provoke further.

Wrong. You really do not know what you are talking about. But hey...I expect no more from the 50 cent army.

This thread is about broken promises. YOU made an unsubstantiated claim that the US 'promised' to protect Ukraine without providing evidence other than some verbiage from the US president. Whereas, there is a WRITTEN promise from Russia, witnessed by countries and not individuals, where Russia promised not to attack Ukraine. So this will blow up spectacularly in your face.

 

[Beast]

Wrong. You really do not know what you are talking about. But hey...I expect no more from the 50 cent army.

This thread is about broken promises. YOU made an unsubstantiated claim that the US 'promised' to protect Ukraine without providing evidence other than some verbiage from the US president. Whereas, there is a WRITTEN promise from Russia, witnessed by countries and not individuals, where Russia promised not to attack Ukraine. So this will blow up spectacularly in your face.

Western provoke Russia and Russia not bound by any legal terms to be gentleman since western disregard the agreement. There is no broken agreement from Russia.

Back to you for your empty promise.

 

[gambit]

Western provoke Russia and Russia not bound by any legal terms to be gentleman since western disregard the agreement. There is no broken agreement from Russia.

Where is that agreement?

 

[Paul2]

What if I tell you that Russia promised IN WRITING that Russia will not attack Ukraine?

I will tell you that I predicted ~1 year ago on PDF that NATO posturing in Black Sea will go poof once Russia will come back to attack Ukraine.

As predicted, NATO folded. Military instructors out, specops out, fleets out of the Black Sea, intel cooperation shut down upon first intel of coming confrontation coming.

Remember the UK destroyer which was chased out by a single patrol boat.

 

[QWECXZ]

No nation thinks about attacking the US since World War 2 or even has a military base near it?

What about the Cuban missile crisis in 1960s?

 

[Han Patriot]

The fact is that Hong Kong has not shed a drop of blood, but all the judges, lawyers, media and so on left by Britain have been cleaned up.

You don't understand the pursuit of reunification in Chinese traditional culture, so you believe that the Taiwanese will engage in guerrilla warfare. PRC and Taiwan compete for "法统"and"道统". Once the competition is over, all Chinese will accept the result of the competition.

法統 - 维基百科，自由的百科全书

zh.m.wikipedia.org

道統 - 维基百科，自由的百科全书

zh.m.wikipedia.org

This numb nuts don't understand Chinese psychology. They will not take up arms unless someone is gonna kill their families. Those HK kids are now very quiet after getting spanked. Just need to jail a few rats, all will be quiet.