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All that remains for Pakistan now is to hope Gen. Bajwa doesn’t turn out to be Gen. Ayub Khan

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I'm just attaching the article for those of you, who might be interested...

Honestly, I didn't know that S.o.B traitor Husain Haqqani was writing for The Print. The man is joke...

Spoiler: Is turning out to be like Gen. Atub Khan such a bad thing.

https://theprint.in/opinion/all-tha...a-doesnt-turn-out-to-be-gen-ayub-khan/347967/


All that remains for Pakistan now is to hope Gen. Bajwa doesn’t turn out to be Gen. Ayub Khan

Pakistani politicians who once pushed for control over policy-making have accepted that they can’t have that control. So they chose to hand it over to the military.

HUSAIN HAQQANI 11 January, 2020

38115746574_c75633e8c0_k-e1550756441910-696x392.jpg

Pakistan Army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa


Only a few brave politicians and intellectuals objected to the overwhelming vote by Pakistan’s parliament to extend the tenure of Army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa for another three years. Little debate or discussion preceded the vote, as if parliament was rubber-stamping a decision rather than making one.

General Qamar Bajwa now has a free hand to run Pakistan, with a minimal civilian façade, backed by apparent parliamentary consensus and little opposition.

General Bajwa’s confidantes say he will concentrate on enacting reforms that Pakistan’s divided elite has failed to enact. He would like to use his position to create circumstances to end future military interventions.

Given Pakistan’s history, there remains a lot of scepticism. But the army’s de facto primacy in Pakistan has long been recognised and one wonders what difference, if any, would be made by providing it de jure sanction through nearly unanimous legislation.


Opposition’s surrender
For the few supporters of civilian supremacy in Pakistan’s public square, the conduct of mainstream opposition parties – the Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N) led by former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, and Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) headed by former president Asif Zardari – was disappointing.

Both parties have spoken in the past against the Pakistani military’s political role. But they conceded consolidation of power by the current military chief, ostensibly in return for having criminal proceedings that had kept their leaders in prison. Some politicians argued rather incredulously that by bringing the matter to parliament, the Pakistani military was conceding civilian supremacy.

A total of 315 legislators from various political parties in both houses of parliament effectively voted in favour of General Bajwa’s extension. This marks the end of the assumption that the military is content with ‘being on one page’ with the weak and ineffective prime minister, Imran Khan, and his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI). The two major parties, PML-N and PPP, are expecting fresh elections and would probably be happy to be General Bajwa’s new political partners.


Failure of political class
The military has been the anchor for the ship of state in Pakistan since 1951. But after the collapse of the military regime headed by General Pervez Musharraf in 2008, people thought the generals had understood that soldiers alone cannot ensure a country’s progress. Instead of assuming power directly, they seemed willing to share responsibility with the elected politicians in running Pakistan.

Relations between Pakistan’s generals and politicians have never been smooth under dyarchy, or dual control. There was always deference to the military’s concerns in foreign policy and matters pertaining to national security. But the politicians’ performance was far from exemplary even in their own domain.

The politicians who pushed for greater control over policy-making in the last decade now seem to have accepted that they cannot have that control. Mainstream politics in Pakistan has become an arrangement for distribution of patronage, in which opposition to the military is voiced primarily when a leader or a political party faces allegations of corruption and bad governance.

Had Pakistan’s politicians been able to keep their hands relatively clean and abided by constitutional norms and democratic traditions, the gradual democratisation of Pakistan might have been easier.

Pakistan’s generals are rightly blamed for their part in the country’s difficulties. But the political class, too, has obstructed Pakistan’s transition along the lines of Indonesia or Chile, where sustained civilian rule has successfully followed military dictatorship.


Military’s image makeover
When General Qamar Bajwa became army chief in November 2016, he apparently decided that Pakistan could not afford to be pulled in different directions by the military and the civilians. There is considerable potential in stable civil-military relations and Gen Bajwa expressed a desire to make Pakistan a ‘normal country.

Unlike General Raheel Sharif, Bajwa did not want a personality cult for himself, nor did he focus solely on getting an extension in his three-year tenure, as General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani had preferred. After getting the three-year extension in tenure, Bajwa’s interest is now said to be in correcting the country’s course from General Headquarters (GHQ) through parliament and civilian institutions.

As is often the case with well laid out plans of absolute control, Pakistan’s current dispensation has had its share of setbacks. The Supreme Court’s outgoing Chief Justice, Asif Saeed Khosa, waited until the last few weeks of his tenure to deliver a series of judgments that challenged Bajwa’s plans. The extension of Bajwa’s tenure as army chief by three years was determined by the Court as not possible under existing laws.

The Supreme Court allowed a six-month extension to enable a legal fix, which has come in the form of the latest amendment in the Pakistan Army Act. Consensus among disparate parties in parliament to enable Bajwa’s extension was worked out to help recover the military’s image. That image had been somewhat dented by the Supreme Court’s challenge to Bajwa’s extension as well as another court sentencing former army chief General Musharraf to death for treason over his suspension of the Constitution in 2007.


Gen Bajwa vs Gen Ayub Khan
Having secured his extension with parliament’s blessing, General Bajwa would now like to focus on straightening out Pakistan’s economy, suppressing Jihadi terrorism, working out a peace deal in Afghanistan, finding a balance in ties with China and the US as well as between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and normalising relations with India without giving up on Pakistan’s claims on Kashmir.

That daunting agenda ahead might need more than a general’s sincerity and patriotism. Bajwa stands now at a point similar to where General Ayub Khan stood soon after taking over the reins of power in October 1958. Hardly anyone opposed Ayub Khan’s authority in his first few months as Pakistan’s absolute ruler.

As he progressed towards becoming Field Marshal, he found that his solutions to some problems generated new issues. Some of his decisions turned allies into critics and critics into virulent opponents.

Ayub Khan made the mistake of assuming that diverse opinions and policy prescriptions were damaging for Pakistan; that politicians and independent-thinking civilians were untrustworthy and lacking in national spirit; and that learning from the past meant determining whom to blame rather than figuring out what those mistakes might have been.

Can General Bajwa move past those assumptions?
 
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Compared to most Hussain Haqqani pieces, this one almost (and I reiterate 'almost') seems balanced.

For once, an anti-Army commentator has actually placed shared blame (if not a large degree of it) on the political parties.

"Had Pakistan’s politicians been able to keep their hands relatively clean and abided by constitutional norms and democratic traditions, the gradual democratisation of Pakistan might have been easier."

Let's hope the PTI doesn't squander this opportunity of having such a good relationship with the military and enacts the reforms necessary to put Pakistan on the path to prosperity.
 
Compared to most Hussain Haqqani pieces, this one almost (and I reiterate 'almost') seems balanced.
I was amazed that he wrote this. Anyways looking it holistically, I can understand. US recognizing that Pakistan is the main player in Afghanistan. And seeing how useless India+US strategy was for Afghanistan, forcing India to look East and forcing US to put Pakistan back on the table. Following this new strategy the mouth-pieces will all be forced to correct their line.

Unlike General Raheel Sharif, Bajwa did not want a personality cult for himself

Couldn't find any bad thing then he goes for the most generic one. Personality cult? now who doesn't have it.
 
I was amazed that he wrote this. Anyways looking it holistically, I can understand. US recognizing that Pakistan is the main player in Afghanistan. And seeing how useless India+US strategy was for Afghanistan, forcing India to look East and forcing US to put Pakistan back on the table. Following this new strategy the mouth-pieces will all be forced to correct their line.
Agreed - the US in its desire to woo India failed to de-hyphenate India & Pakistan in Afghanistan and ended up driving Pakistan further away needlessly.

The US’s Afghanistan policy should have given Pakistan the attention and role necessary instead of trying to create another front against Pakistan to strengthen India and free India up to counter China. Of course expecting India to militarily take on China at the US’s behest was a foolish pipe dream in any case - India isn’t going to enter a conflict with China unless China directly threatens India.
 
Agreed - the US in its desire to woo India failed to de-hyphenate India & Pakistan in Afghanistan and ended up driving Pakistan further away needlessly.

the turning point was during that "library comment" made by Trump. It was during that time US started leaning towards Pakistan again. US wanted more out of India in Afghanistan which they couldn't provide, in the end Indians started to realize that too. Hence, "the look East moto" by India, they know now completely its in vain to invest west-wards. They just don't have the capability. Now even you see Shekar Gupta(the takla raw mouth-piece) talking about Pakistan geographic power, and comments liberally on it from time to time. Before he was like Pakistan ka kiya, yeh tou kuch bhi nahi...
 
The US wants for Indian relations with all Muslim countries to suffer. The priority of the US establishment is the supremacy of Israel in the Middle East. It was hoped that an anti-Muslim India that celebrates Israel will grow distant from Arab states, thereby depriving the Arabs of further political support and investment and making Israel more ascendant. It didn't work as planned because the UAE and Saudi and even Iran saw through US plans and have not broken with the Modi government in any significant way. This has accelerated the isolation of Pakistan because the Arabs had no choice but to side with the much bigger customer and political global player in India over Pakistan. Indian Muslims are suffering as a result because Modi knows that the Arabs will not wreck their relations with India over South-Asian region matters such Kashmir and CAA/NRC.

Pakistan's only real way out of this mess is to focus inward and strengthen our economy by rooting out corruption and building reserves. Then international political support and investment will follow.
 
Agreed - the US in its desire to woo India failed to de-hyphenate India & Pakistan in Afghanistan and ended up driving Pakistan further away needlessly.

The US’s Afghanistan policy should have given Pakistan the attention and role necessary instead of trying to create another front against Pakistan to strengthen India and free India up to counter China. Of course expecting India to militarily take on China at the US’s behest was a foolish pipe dream in any case - India isn’t going to enter a conflict with China unless China directly threatens India.

It would be naive of them to think that India will carry their water against China, they may be in the barrel but they are not in a lock step.
Folks we have been down that road before; during the bush presidency the tide was turned in India's favor,the west on the heels of consultant class's diagnosis found their silver bullet. scale was tipped totally against Pakistan and the entire system gamed in favor of India. US and its allies were lining up in droves, offering India all kind of goodies, their nuclear reactors, the elite membership to the exclusive nuclear club, they were being handed over the leadership of the entire region on a silver platter, but guess what the saangis failed to rise to the tide, they dropped the ball;;.
One must differentiate the fundamental point, it's one thing the Safradors may habor visceral hatred for Pakistan but it's totally another to translate this animus into them taking on China.
The Bakhts talk a big game but they really don't have the balls to look China in the eye much less taking on the mighty Dragon.

Sir @MastanKhan always talks of us dropping the ball in yemen; guess what its whole God damned train wreck for India.
 
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The Bakhts talk a big game but they really don't have the balls to look China in the eye much less taking on the mighty Dragon.
Yep. The only thing the Bakhta are going to do with the goodies the US gives them is attack Pakistan.

As much as they say Pakistan is India obsessed, the Bakhts are many magnitudes more Pakistan obsessed.
 
Yep. The only thing the Bakhta are going to do with the goodies the US gives them is attack Pakistan.

As much as they say Pakistan is India obsessed, the Bakhts are many magnitudes more Pakistan obsessed.
But don't you think India has a pretty good thing going on?
The US is in a bit of a dilemma, because it does not want to take on China directly in the Indo-Pacific, Hence, it is hoping to surround China with allies that mostly have disputes with China in the SCS. The problem is, most countries in ASEAN simply aren't willing to take on China, nor do they have any comparable military power(vietnam is the exception). Meanwhile, Japan and Korea remain more fixated on South Korea.

This means that aside from Australia, india is the only viable option in the region. Obviously, the US knows India has different geopolitical goals from the US. However, India knows that for now, there aren't any other options of the US's Indo-Pacific strategy, which means it will get away with more. The fact that india got a waiver for chabahar despite the Iran crisis is a good example. Maybe that won't be the case ten years from now, but currently that is the dynamic.

Personally, i think the turning point was Doklam. Although the outcome is still debatable, it showed both the US and China that India is willing to directly confront China under certain situations. That drastically changed the situation for all three countries, with the US increasing india's role and China acting less provacatively towards India and more conciliatory(The recent border talks are an example).

BTW, look East is a long-standing policy that far predates Modi. India is still engaging with Western and Central Asia. In many CARs, India is actually the biggest investor after China and Russia. Currently, India is developing ports in Iran's chabahar and Sitwe in Myanmar as well as Sabang in indonesia. These ports are on opposite ends of the IOR, which is actually part of india's geopolitical vision.

As for Afganistan, india never had any goals aside from increasing economic investments(which it has done). If the US thought India would take sides in the conflict with the Taliban, then that was a major miscalculation.
 
it showed both the US and China that India is willing to directly confront China under certain situations.
Only when India is directly threatened. Outside of that India is not going to antagonize China, especially because an Indian conflict (an actual military conflict, not just a stand-off) with China will divert military resources away from India’s western front and while China may not step into an India-Pakistan war, there is no guarantee Pakistan will not step into a China-India war.
 
Only when India is directly threatened. Outside of that India is not going to antagonize China, especially because an Indian conflict (an actual military conflict, not just a stand-off) with China will divert military resources away from India’s western front and while China may not step into an India-Pakistan war, there is no guarantee Pakistan will not step into a China-India war.
I agree with you, but my point is the incident taught China there will be consequences to more aggressive policies towards India. That is one reason why no such incidents have happened since, and why there have been minimal incursions by either side. In addition, Doklam also gave credibility to the idea of India having the capability to counter China in a limited conflict. Key word being capability. Obviously, India will never openly antagonize China, but that was the only time an Asian country stood down China in that fashion with some degree of success. Like you said, India will likely not face China like that, but it can. And obviously, the US would not want to give up on India knowing its capabilities relative to the region.
 
But don't you think India has a pretty good thing going on?
The US is in a bit of a dilemma, because it does not want to take on China directly in the Indo-Pacific, Hence, it is hoping to surround China with allies that mostly have disputes with China in the SCS. The problem is, most countries in ASEAN simply aren't willing to take on China, nor do they have any comparable military power(vietnam is the exception). Meanwhile, Japan and Korea remain more fixated on South Korea.

This means that aside from Australia, india is the only viable option in the region. Obviously, the US knows India has different geopolitical goals from the US. However, India knows that for now, there aren't any other options of the US's Indo-Pacific strategy, which means it will get away with more. The fact that india got a waiver for chabahar despite the Iran crisis is a good example. Maybe that won't be the case ten years from now, but currently that is the dynamic.

Personally, i think the turning point was Doklam. Although the outcome is still debatable, it showed both the US and China that India is willing to directly confront China under certain situations. That drastically changed the situation for all three countries, with the US increasing india's role and China acting less provacatively towards India and more conciliatory(The recent border talks are an example).

BTW, look East is a long-standing policy that far predates Modi. India is still engaging with Western and Central Asia. In many CARs, India is actually the biggest investor after China and Russia. Currently, India is developing ports in Iran's chabahar and Sitwe in Myanmar as well as Sabang in indonesia. These ports are on opposite ends of the IOR, which is actually part of india's geopolitical vision.

As for Afganistan, india never had any goals aside from increasing economic investments(which it has done). If the US thought India would take sides in the conflict with the Taliban, then that was a major miscalculation.
India is actually a FOX, not a WOLF.

Remember Obama administration's Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) proposal? It was this proposal which could truly box China in but Trump administration dropped this proposal in favor of seeking a deal with China in which American companies will retain complete ownership of their assets and intellectual properties in China while investing there, and this initiative might bear fruit. Therefore, American plans to contain China are shelved for now.

It is also possible that Pakistan will use CPEC to bring US and China closer again. American companies are interested in investing in Pakistan, thanks in part to opportunities afforded by CPEC in the region.

Trump administration was also critical of Obama administration's pivot to India policy in Afghanistan. Therefore, Trump administration reached out to Pakistan and General Bajwa is in the good books... :-)
 
India is actually a FOX, not a WOLF.

Remember Obama administration's Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) proposal? It was this proposal which could truly box China in but Trump administration dropped this proposal in favor of seeking a deal with China in which American companies will retain complete ownership of their assets and intellectual properties in China while investing there, and this initiative might bear fruit. Therefore, American plans to contain China are shelved for now.

It is also possible that Pakistan will use CPEC to bring US and China closer again. American companies are interested in investing in Pakistan, thanks in part to opportunities afforded by CPEC in the region.

Trump administration was also critical of Obama administration's pivot to India policy in Afghanistan.
In many cases, foxes last longer than wolves.

Also keep in mind that it was Trump who changed "Asia-Pacific" to "Indo-Pacific," which clearly shows a more India-centered Asia policy.

And do you really think a trade deal will stop US-China tensions? Trade is only one issue, the US and China still many differences. Hong Kong and increased tension in the SCS are just a few example. containing China's rise in Asia will always be a long term strategic goal of the US, regardless of who's in the White House.
 

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