All Central Asian roads lead to Muscovy

[SpArK]

All Central Asian roads lead to Muscovy
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Central Asia stretches from the Caspian Sea in the west to China in the east and from Afghanistan in the south to Russia in the north and includes the republics of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan with a total population of 64.7 million as of 2012. In September 2012 these countries completed 21 years of independence. During these two decades their political and economic strategies have undergone fundamental changes. Yet one feeling that runs deep in all Central Asian Republics is that “all roads still lead to Muscovy”.

Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Mongolia, Xinjiang and Tibet in western China and southern Siberia in eastern Russia are other areas which fall within the periphery and influence of Central Asia.

Central Asia has long been a strategically important region due to its geographical proximity to several great powers of Eurasia. Russia’s expansion and influence in the region dates back to the 18th century when Peter the Great sent an armed trade expedition of 4000 men in 1717-18 to the Khanate of Khiva (much of present day Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan). Under the pretense of hospitality, the Khivans split the Russian mission in camps and later ambushed and slaughtered them brutally leaving ten men alive to be sent back.

Severely indebted after Russia’s costly westward expansion into Europe, Peter the Great could do nothing. However, this mass slaughter of Russians was never forgotten. Similar missions were undertaken and sent by Tsar Paul I, Tsar Nicholas I and Tsar Alexander II to wrest control of Central Asia and bring it under the Russian dominion. By 1873 the mission was finally successful and the Russian empire was in complete control of the region with the successful conquest of Khanate of Khiva, Bukhara and Kokand.

The Russian conquest had a tremendous advantage of creating a central location between four historical seats of power viz. China, India, Persia and the Ottoman Empire. From its central location, Russia had access to trade routes to and from all the regional powers. The region which falls on the ancient silk route is rich in minerals and fossil fuel resources. Russia continues to view the region as a strategic buffer against outside challenges. As a result, geopolitical compulsions have guided Russia to retain Central Asia within its sphere of influence.

But all of that is slowly and quietly changing. As more world powers converge on Central Asia, the region has once again become a hotbed of diplomatic, strategic, economic and geo-political rivalry. Apparently, all roads from Central Asia to Muscovy are crumbling with member states seeking lucrative partnerships with outside powers including United States while ignoring Russian concerns. Russia, mindful of its inability to do much, is instead trying to offset its waning influence in Central Asia by pursuing new partnerships in the peripheral areas of the region to retain its influence and relevance.

However Russia’s anxiety to forge new partnerships around the region with non-traditional partners will leave a vacuum in Central Asia which will benefit one country immensely more than any other. All roads that once led to Muscovy now lead to Beijing.

Emerging new frontiers

The capital of Pakistan, Islamabad is buzzing with diplomatic activity on its new engagement with Russia. Russia’s sudden interest in Pakistan is quite perplexing. In the past, Russia had almost no substantial political relations with Pakistan. Pakistan has cleverly changed that by engaging Russia to offset its tense relationship with the United States post 9/11. Pakistan’s close ally and all weather friend China seems to have played the mediating role of getting the countries together.

China has successfully been able to convince Russia into re-adjusting its foreign policy in view of the emerging security situation in Central and South Asia to propagate and forge a trilateral; China-Pakistan Russia axis which will have strategic gains for all three nations. Pakistan is hopeful that it will be able to exert more influence and pressure on Afghanistan by directly engaging with the Russians. Traditionally Russia which was the main force behind the Northern Alliance against the Taliban yields a considerable influence on elements in the Hamid Karzai Government which has major leaders from the Northern Alliance now in power in Afghanistan.

Pakistan's direct engagement with Russia was pro-actively facilitated by China and subsequently achieved a breakthrough under the auspices of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). The SCO led by China and Russia formally granted Pakistan observer States status in July 2005 along with Iran, Mongolia and India. Russia's relationship with Pakistan has evolved so quickly and can be gauged by the fact that six years later in 2011 President Vladimir Putin openly not only supported Pakistan's full membership of the SCO but termed Pakistan as "a very reliable and important partner of Russia".

Not surprisingly, Pakistan has been busy hosting back-to back-visits by the Russian President's Special Envoy and the Chinese Foreign Minister in May 2012. The recent visit of the Russian Foreign Minister to Islamabad and Pakistan Army Chief's in October 2012 signals the dawn of a new era in their relationships. Coincidentally, in June 2012 Afghanistan was also granted Observer State status at the SCO. Hence, the strategic significance of the Russian new found engagement Pakistan is not lost on all countries in Central Asia and South Asia, particularly India and the other great world powers.

The origins

With the disintegration of the Soviet Union, China suspected trouble on its vast western border of Xinjiang due to a similar secessionist movement. It immediately recognized the Central Asian republics in 1991 and set about engaging the newly independent member states. Another most promising prospect of expanding and consolidating these relationships was for gaining access to the landlocked region's vast energy resources including oil, metals, minerals and natural gas.

The Soviet Union's sudden demise provided China with a huge opportunity to spread its influence in its immediate yet non-familiar neighborhood. The Russians, baffled at their decline and high vulnerability, decided to tag along in hope of retaining a part of their lost glory and legacy. Hence the Shanghai Five was created on April 26, 1996 with the signing of the joint treaty on Deepening Military Trust in Border Regions in Shanghai by the heads of States of China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. In April 1997 the same countries signed the joint treaty on Reduction of Military Forces in Border Regions in a meeting in Moscow.

Subsequently with the inclusion of Uzbekistan in 2001, the members renamed the Shanghai Five as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. The SCO declared itself as an intergovernmental mutual-security organization having focus on security, economic, cultural and military cooperation amongst member states.

By 2007, the SCO had initiated over 20 large-scale projects in sectors such as energy, transportation and telecommunications with officials from member states holding regular meetings focusing on areas as diverse as economic affairs, banking, defense, security, military, foreign affairs and cultural linkages.

Additionally SCO also created the position of dialogue partner in 2008 and granted the dialogue partner status to Belarus and Sri Lanka in 2009 which was extended to Turkey in June 2012 at its annual summit in Beijing. Since then the SCO has established relations with the United Nations as an observer in the General Assembly, the European Union, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, the Commonwealth of Independent States and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation.

Over time, the SCO has become a Chinese-Russian led bloc which the Chinese analysts argue represents "an embodiment of the new security concept and a new type of multilateral institution in the post-cold war environment" however the truth seems somewhere else.

The new Great Game

The Kremlin has taken upon itself to safeguard its economic interests as one of the most important objectives of its Central Asia policy. And in order to do so, Russia has tried to keep a tight leash on countries it considers most critical and important, such as Kazakhstan which it considers important both politically and economically. Not only is Kazakhstan the second largest oil producer after Russia in the former Soviet Union, it is also home to significant former Soviet industrial and defense facilities.

Control over Kazakhstan's energy resources and their means of transportation gives Russia significant economic and strategic leverage. Due to enormous oil and gas reserves in Kazakhstan, Russia has a vital interest in Central Asia. Russian enterprises are also dependent on cotton imports from Uzbekistan. However many member states in the region despite strong affinity with Russia, have gradually been moving away from its orbit due to divergent economic and national interests.

An increasingly assertive and economically powerful China has made strident inroads in the Central Asian republics. China has been aggressively promoting bilateral relations with nations in the region quite often surpassing the self created SCO and has become Central Asia's principal trading partner and its main source of foreign investment. China is increasingly using investment and aid packages as tools to leverage and consolidate its clout and influence in the region.

Both Russia and the United States have conflicting interests in Central Asia at the moment and are in direct competition over gas pipelines and military bases in the region. China has successfully overplayed Moscow's fears of Washington's Central Asia policy, hedging the two against each other while making significant gains in its outreach in the region through its soft power.

China's current involvement with Central Asia republics is limited to energy resources and raw materials. However China is actively working to broad base its investments in infrastructure, telecommunications, transport and electricity. The Chinese government is increasingly giving loans to its public sector enterprises that are investing in Central Asia. China has invested close to US$10 billion in Central Asia and many investment projects have either been agreed or are being negotiated.

The volume of trade between China and Central Asia increased from $1.52 billion in 2001 to $3.01 billion in 2010 according to United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. As China's trade with the region rapidly grows increasing its dependence on the region's energy supplies, maintaining influence in Central Asia has become a matter of critical strategic and geo-political importance for China. China also views closer cooperation with Central Asia as an important tool to boost economic development in the west of China.

The construction of Turkmenistan-Xinjiang gas pipeline, which started operations in December 2009 is the best example of how China plans to develop its Western frontier. This gas pipeline runs for 188 km in Turkmenistan, 530 km in Uzbekistan, and 1,300 km in Kazakhstan before connecting to the Chinese grid, stretching 8,000 km all the way to the east of the country.

Russia has been watching China's economic engagement with the region with suspicion and skepticism. Russia has instead been working hard on the development of a Eurasian Union and trying to expand its Customs Union in Central Asia with limited success. Russia has also been working behind the scenes to block China's US$10 billion loan for the development of regional infrastructure in Central Asia.

While Russia has been trying hard to contain China's growing influence in the region, the absence of an alternative, is likely to lead the Central Asian republics succumbing to the Chinese economic might. Similarly Russia's development of a Eurasian Union will directly clash with the future strengthening of the SCO.

United States policy towards the Central Asian states has primarily been focused on mutual cooperation and NATO's efforts in stabilizing Afghanistan. The United States has been promoting free markets, energy development, human rights and democracy while forging East-West and Central Asia-South Asia trade links. United States has signed trade agreements with all the Central Asian countries however investment treaties are in force only with Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.

The aid and investment by United States in the region is viewed as strengthening the independence of the Central Asian states and forestalling Chinese, Russian influence or other efforts to subvert them. United States has also been trying to limit Chinese and Russian influence by exploiting the division between the member States to expand its own influence. And it has achieved at least partial success. Uzbekistan recently snubbed both Russia and China by boycotting the SCO's joint anti-terrorist military exercises in Tajikistan.

Despite the current divergence of interests between the United States and Russia, the fear of political repercussions of Beijing's growing economic weight will pull them in the same direction sooner than later. The Central Asian countries also harbor suspicions while extracting maximum economic benefit from the big brother on their western border.

The economic opportunity and strategic advantage of Central Asia is not lost on India, another regional power. India has traditionally maintained good relations with the member countries region due to cultural and historical linkages. However despite the bonhomie in bilateral relations between India and Central Asia major constraints in terms of the region being landlocked and non-availability of direct transit routes for trade has blocked the development of trade.

India lags significantly behind all the major players in the region in trading volumes with the Central Asian countries and has failed to exploit the vibrant consumer market. While recent trade figures over the last 10 years are encouraging, the volume of trade still remains abysmally low. India maintains its only foreign military base in Tajikistan at the Farkhor Air Base in Ayni.

Similarly India is extending its soft power in the region by setting up a Central Asian University in Kyrgyzstan to focus on information technology, management, philosophy and languages.

Conclusion

That the region is so fiercely contested for influence and resources by the current super powers and the emerging powers signifies its strategic importance and value on the global stage. However in this great game it is imperative for all countries in Central Asia not to hedge their bets on any one power. The economic and political success of the Central Asian republics will depend on their ability to strike a balance between the rising influences of world powers and avoiding transnational oligarchy.

India can play a very significant role in helping the Central Asian republics maintain, leverage and strike a balance between the rising influences of other powers which often try to pull the region in their orbit. The onus of cultivating this relationship falls as much as on India as on the countries in Central Asia for maintaining peace and achieving economic growth in the region.


Asia Times Online :: All Central Asian roads lead to Muscovy