Reply to some of the concerns:
1. Relations are not done just for the sake of relations.
2. We are already exposed to Russia with JF-17's engine & other deals.
3. China is risk free, at tech frontier, 2 times US & EU.
4. Do we prefer 1 Su-35 sqdn over 3-4 JF-17 sqdns? (Conservative estimate, Su-35 may cost us more)
5. Expensive planes are a distraction, haunting West & everyone. See Pierre Sprey
6. Numbers matter: Giving flexibility in strategy - with Su-35 not possible.
7. Let JF-17s roll in huge numbers to create panic. Germany WWII: Total 95k, Fighters 53k (BF109 29k)
8. We can get Su-35 any time. It's not, now or never.
9. Things like JF-17 don't happen everyday. We don't need confusion.
10. Today, it's all about cost, and we are lucky to have JF-17.
You should learn from the Chinese in this regards. They buy small batches of advanced jets, play with them, get their people trained and learn from the best ones, and then build those internally. There is a strategy peace that you are missing. Today's purchases of SU-35 jets, will help tomorrow's twin engine JFT block 4 or a medium role variant of the JFT which would be bigger in size and would have both Russian and Chinese weapons packages, larger radars and all. Russia at this point is ahead in Radar tech than China. Chinese fighter radars don't go out to 400 miles just yet. But till they mature up, the Russians options are not bad at all with their HOBS BVR missiles.
The JFT scenario with large numbers you mentioned, it was initially built to replace Mirages and F-7's (which are 1960's tech). Now the basis of the JFT's tech and comparisons "baseline" was the F-16 (pre-mlu, block 15), which is 1970's technology. Some avoinics were upgraded to provide SD-10, ARM and AShM's. Which gave it a serious boost in terms of capability and its able to form a seriously capable backbone for the PAF without ever having to worry about sanctions. This means, in numbers, JFT's can give Pakistan enough conventional boost against India, to sustain a fight for a few weeks, even during sanctions. That's actually very impressive capability.
But, what do you do with alarming number of advanced tech on the Indian side? If every Indian jet focused on Pakistan is able to lock onto 4-8 JFT's and fire missile from 60-70 miles away.....how much resistance would be left when these SU's cross the border? or the ocean into Karachi? So strategy wise, now you need some capability that's considered a force-multiplier and can form the top tier.
Imagine, an interception package of 2 SU-35's and 4 JFT's sent from two directions, to intercept 8 SU-30's incoming from India. Guess what the game would look like? It's almost even field in BVR. While jets come closer, you'll have losses on each side. But the SU-35 will share data with the JFT, it'll multiply the JFT's capability three fold through sharing its resources.
8 SU-30's will have 8 incoming missiles fired by two SU-35's on them, plus 8 more from the JFT's. Chances of escaping two BVR's are pretty slim, in this case you are ALSO using Russian BVR's (advance ones). So by inducting limited top tier capability, you've successfully neutralized your enemy's much larger and similar capability. At the end of this one situation, say 2 SU-30's survived and 1 JFT and 1 SU-35 also survived.....what are the odds? 1:1 and that's real force multiplication which has neutralized the massive size the adversary has.
Similarly, in Naval role, your main threat isn't IAF coming from Mumbai or elsewhere as those are distant basis, its the AC's and Rajisthan based FOB's. Now 60 upgraded Migs and Harriers with some support from Rajisthan, say, about a total of 160, mixed fighters will deal with 40 Su-35's / J11D's, and 40 JFT's. So its 160 vs. 80. The seriously capable SU-35 provides, really helps negate the difference here, 40 SU-35 alone can tackle IAF's top tier from the Ocean and Rajisthan (40-60 Mig-29 SMT's and SU-30's). Mirages and Harriers can easily be tackled by the JFT's. So you played a 160 vs. 80 scenario on almost equal basis, due to the superior capability, it was never 2:1, it was like 1.25:1. Where .25 represents marginal increase because your force multipliers are much more advanced then majority of enemy's jets (Mig-29's, Mirages, Harriers, Tornados, Mig-27, 23's, etc, etc).
In a Naval attack role, they might allow you to fire 3 AShM's each. 20 SU-35 on attack mean a salvo of 60 missiles inbound towards a few high value ships. I don't think there is much defense in this situation.
Now, the JFT block IV can be a twin engine plane, may be smaller than SU-35 but still, and can carry 6-8 ton of weapons, and can be built with Russian input and weapons systems like Radars and Missiles. Why care for the French or the Swedes when you have sanction proof technology you can built internally and countries like Russia and China allowing you to have it? Think long term, not just what's happening tomorrow!
- IRBIS radar should be replaced by the AESA developed for J-20 by 611 institute. It reportedly has >2000 TRMs & its going to introduce a whole new capability to the Su-35.
- It should be datalinked with our other jets through tactical datalink.
- SD-10B and other advanced Chinese BVRAAMs should be a priority.
- Should integrate YJ-12 AShM & CM-400AKG.
- For ground roles, integrate RAAD and other Pakistani armament.
1) The Chinese won't sell the J-20's AESA radar to anyone, including Pakistan. That's their national security secret and its being treated at the level similar to how the US keeps everything confidential about the -22.
2) Data links will be available with the JFT's. Even through the ZDK's and GC's loop out to -16's too (the PAF has built an encoding and decoding solution to translate from the Chinese systems and relay to the link 16 through a device of some sort).
3) With SU-35, you'll get Archers and all, in addition to just SD-10. And the mix of multiple BVR weapons will be applied onto JFT's too at some point. JFT block IV would be heavier and who knows it might be a twin engine jet using Russian and Chinese weapons. This is very long term thinking (and good thinking). Raad and all will be integrated, along with H series standoff munitions.