Air Chief Marshal Raha to visit Sweden - LCA MK2 aka Gripen IN

[randomradio]

The Gripen in IAF service will kill off the LCA MK.2 GURANTEED. It isn't a price worth paying.

The Gripen will be chosen after the LCA Mk2 is confirmed to be late. But it won't affect the LCA program due to two reasons. One, the MK2 will be exported sooner. Two, the navy will buy the N-LCA and IAF Mk2 is necessary for the quicker development of the N-LCA.

2024 is too long. And that is now an older date. And these are ADA's dates, you have seen how they get pushed.

Except Boeing have explictily stated they are't willing to tie up with any Indian partner and would only manufacture F-18s in India under a 100% owned subsidary.

You think we will listen? They also want IAF to order 200 SHs for the project to be viable. Not happening. So they've reduced that to 150. But they are gonna get 90 jets and that can be expanded by 45 in the future.

The Gripen and F-18 propositions are far too heavily weighed in favour of operational benefits for the IAF but do not acknowledge that India's priority is now about creating a credible manufacturing base and the aerospace industry is a key part of that. The Gripen and F-18 offer very little in the way of long term industrial benefits to India.

There isn't a choice. The EFT sucks. Only Rafale is available and Reliance needs a decent competitor. In fact, from what I hear, the SH will win the second contract, but it will be based on our terms and decent ToT, that's 50% ToT.

When did the IAF's needs get so important? The GoI has been consistently ignoring them so I'm sure that they would feel that the LCA and Rafale (with FGFA a bit later) is more than enough to keep them content.

The govt figured out IAF is important when they realized that's the only advantage we have over China. Our topmost priority among conventional weapons right now is ballistic missiles. We are looking at some sort of parity over China's PLARF. Basically, the US and India had underestimated the Chinese by 5 years, so they are both working doubly hard to contain that 'error'. India is increasing ballistic missiles stock at a fast pace while the US is doing their Asia pivot by basing 60% of their navy in the Pacific. The US has realized their pivot won't work in time. PLAN will have 450 capital ships in 10 years. India wants to have 200 and the US will have only about 170 ships in the Pacific by then. Of course the US has better ships and subs.

The US is now in such a sticky position that they need our help, that's why they have elevated our status to a NATO member and are pushing DTTI forward as much as possible. The LEMOA deal will also be signed soon. They have been pushing for joint patrols, but have obviously failed.

The second highest priority is FGFA and Rafale, obviously. The CCS has realized they need to control the air or we are f***ed.

@MilSpec @Abingdonboy

These are turn rates of various aircraft that were submitted in the Australian Parliament. The Gripen-E is leagues ahead of the F-16.

And a simulation:

 

[MilSpec]

According to French Senate documents, the LCC cost of Rafale is very low. Spares and maintenance throughout a Rafale's life comes to less than $100M per jet. And that's for 40 years at 240 hours a year.

According to the French senate, the CPFH of a M-2000 is $8000 and that of a Rafale is $10000.
According to HAL, the CPFH of a M-2000 is $3000. So this will give you an idea about how much the Rafale will cost in India. In comparison, according to HAL, the CPFH of a MKI is $12000.

How much does a rivet cutter costs in north-central France compared to Bangalore? I have been part of enough ToT's to tell you that estimated PLM costs for different geographical regions with different set of suppliers, tax regimes, and labor productivity are never consistent from the evaluation done on any other set.

The F-16IN failed IAF's MRCA performance standards. Gripen Demo cleared it.

What did it fail? what metrics, what were the criterions, let IAF make all of those transparent and we can discuss.

 

[Abingdonboy]

The Gripen will be chosen after the LCA Mk2 is confirmed to be late. But it won't affect the LCA program due to two reasons. One, the MK2 will be exported sooner.

This is where the LCA Mk.1A comes in, it is more than sufficent to meet the IAF's point-defence/air policing role until the MK.2 comes in. If required HAL can even expand production beyond 16 MK.1A/year.

There isn't a choice. The EFT sucks. Only Rafale is available and Reliance needs a decent competitor. In fact, from what I hear, the SH will win the second contract, but it will be based on our terms and decent ToT, that's 50% ToT.

The benefiting organistion needs a competitor, since when has this been a consideration when making defence deals in India? Since when has the MoD/GoI sought to balance out the defence industry by giving mulitple contracts for the same role? Did the MoD do this with the C-295 deal? The SPG (K9) deal? This is very bizarre logic here sir. And IF this is the consideration then no Indian competitor will be formed by going for the F-18, Boeing will set up a 100% owned subsidary in India that will close down once the F-18 SH orders are complete. This is all rather long winded and clearly contradictory.

The LEMOA deal will also be signed soon.

LEMOA will ikely be signed this year but CISMOA and BECA won't and these agreements along with many others need to be signed for India to get US fighters but with elections in the US their govt will effectively stop functioning for the next 18-24 months. India isn't going to wait, the MII deal with Dassualt will be signed this fiscal (before March 2017) and then it is game over, no more foriegn MMRCA will be considered.


The 36 Rafale deal will be signed this month, then the 90 unit deal will be given to Rafale that can be expanded at anytime. In addtion to this the LCA will be churned out at a respectable rate and by 2018/19 there will be 3 fighter production lines in India churning out a combined 50 jets a year. At this rate the IAF will have its needs met within 5-6 years ie by 2025.

It's the simplest scenerio, I don't see where there is scope for a 4th or 5th production line, it doesn't make any kind of sense to me. If the MoD is really this concernedabout India's airpower they aren't acting like it, they are still messing around with the finer details of the Rafale deal instead of focusing on ordering it, the Super upgrade is still pending for the MKI and even the re-engining of the Jaguar DARIN IIIs hasn't been given the go ahead.

These are turn rates of various aircraft that were submitted in the Australian Parliament. The Gripen-E is leagues ahead of the F-16.

It's a good thing the IAF is getting the Rafale then

 

[MilSpec]

@Abingdonboy A section of IAF is btw was trying it's level best to kill off the Mk2. same NGARM story.

 

[Abingdonboy]

@Abingdonboy A section of IAF is btw was trying it's level best to kill off the Mk2. same NGARM story.

Just like they tried to kill off the LCA (MK.1), it's to be expected- they are in love with foreign toys and who can blame them? They are from a generation who were brought up to beleive India was a second rate nation and everything foreign was good and anythig Indian was pi$$ poor. The world/India is a different place today but it is no surprise that these mindsets persist.

Like I have said, let the LCA (Mk.1/A) enter service and those guys get a chance to see the value of the bird, once it is "their baby" you won't find any greater LCA supporters than the IAF. The MK.2 can't be killed now, it is fully funded and most importantly the IN is 100% commited to it, the IAF will grow to love it in time.

 

[Blue Marlin]

so does this mean the gripen is going to replace the lca mk2?

 

[Abingdonboy]

so does this mean the gripen is going to replace the lca mk2?

Nope, not at all.

 

[Blue Marlin]

Nope, not at all.

so its a good will visit then and saab would be doing everything it can to persuade the acm for the gripen.
any word on the private line for the lca?

 

[Abingdonboy]

so its a good will visit then and saab would be doing everything it can to persuade the acm for the gripen.

Exaclty right. The host nations organises the tour details and clearly the Swedes are still keen to push the Gripen but it doesn't mean anything.

any word on the private line for the lca?

Currently HAL is working on expending their production capacity to 16 LCA/year and ADA itself is working on relying on HAL purely as a lead intergrator with most of the work outsourced to the privatr sector:

The private production line will only come up beyond 2020 once the demand for the LCA Mk.1A grows.

 

[Blue Marlin]

Exaclty right. The host nations organises the tour details and clearly the Swedes are still keen to push the Gripen but it doesn't mean anything.


Currently HAL is working on expending their production capacity to 16 LCA/year and ADA itself is working on relying on HAL purely as a lead intergrator with most of the work outsourced to the privatr sector:

The private production line will only come up beyond 2020 once the demand for the LCA Mk.1A grows.

any idea on who gonna build them? or is that still to early

 

[Abingdonboy]

any idea on who gonna build them? or is that still to early

Let the dust settle on this MMRCA issue, see who gets the Rafale Indian production line order, then the decsion will be made on the LCA partners. It could be TATA or maybe L&T (would be my preference).

 

[Blue Marlin]

Let the dust settle on this MMRCA issue, see who gets the Rafale Indian production line order, then the decsion will be made on the LCA partners. It could be TATA or maybe L&T (would be my preference).

isn't the signing due this month for the rafale?
i dont think its a good idea asking about the 90 rafales being built in india, that will be another 3 years.

who's L&T?

 

[Abingdonboy]

isn't the signing due this month for the rafale?

It is, that is for the 36 off the shelf units, an entirely seperate deal in its own right.

i dont think its a good idea asking about the 90 rafales being built in india, that will be another 3 years.

The talks are already in advanced stages, the deal will be signed by the end of this financial year (March 2017). More than 90 will be built in the long term considering the IAF's force requirements post 2020 and the IN's requirement for at least 100+ Rafale-Ms by 2025-7.

who's L&T?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larsen_&_Toubro

 

[hussain0216]

Just like they tried to kill off the LCA (MK.1), it's to be expected- they are in love with foreign toys and who can blame them? They are from a generation who were brought up to beleive India was a second rate nation and everything foreign was good and anythig Indian was pi$$ poor. The world/India is a different place today but it is no surprise that these mindsets persist.

Like I have said, let the LCA (Mk.1/A) enter service and those guys get a chance to see the value of the bird, once it is "their baby" you won't find any greater LCA supporters than the IAF. The MK.2 can't be killed now, it is fully funded and most importantly the IN is 100% commited to it, the IAF will grow to love it in time.

Alternative thought!

They are right, something is fundamentally wrong with the LCA and as they are putting their lives on the line flying it and are aware of its faults they dont want it.

However due to the decades spent and money wasted, a ego based political decision has been made to push on with the LCA and force it upon the military come what may

Aware of the shortcomings and aware they will be forced to utilise the LCA the next plan is to rope in a outside manufacturer/consultant and either purchase something like the Grippen to do the job that the LCA is meant to do but cant or request the outside consultants utilise their abilities and technology to fix the LCA and end its shortcomings

The LCA will be a white elephant tucked away somewhere to protect india from mermaid attack

 

[Abingdonboy]

Alternative thought!

They are right, something is fundamentally wrong with the LCA and as they are putting their lives on the line flying it and are aware of its faults they dont want it.

Unless you can point out what floor the LCA has then please do keep your unsolicited opinions to yourself. The LCA has met every requirement the IAF has put in front of it and has not suffered a single airframe loss to date, what more can it do?

You wouldn't be doing this with a fundamentally flawed aircraft:

^Night time launch of the N-LCA from the ramp at the SBTF


In the day:

The LCA will be a white elephant tucked away somewhere to protect india from mermaid attack

Maybe the PAF's experience with the JF-17 has inspired this entire post where, despite having their "own" fighter the JF-17, they are still desperatley trying to get the ancient F-16?