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China’s AIIB and the US Reputation Risk | The Diplomat

China’s AIIB and the US Reputation Risk
What are the implications of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank for the next U.S. president?

By Mercy A. Kuo and Angelica O. Tang
April 16, 2015


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India, Iran and Israel joined. Europe’s leading economies – France, Germany, Italy, Switzerland, and United Kingdom – are approved members. Russia is in. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are on board. Australia and South Korea are confirmed. Japan has allocated $1.5 billion for AIIB membership, though Tokyo is assessing AIIB’s governance framework and will decide in June. Canada is considering. North Korea’s application was rejected. Currently, 57 countries are confirmed founding members. The United States stands alone.

Critics of the U.S. decision not to join see Washington sidelined as allies jump on the AIIB bandwagon. Proponents of Washington’s position, mainly Obama administration officials, decry the absence of transparent governance standards and competition with the World Bank and Asian Development Bank, even though both banks have endorsed the AIIB. The White House’s concerns over AIIB’s environmental and social responsibility framework, though valid, miss the bigger picture. What is the strategic significance of the AIIB for the next US president and US rebalance to Asia?

Geopolitics. A U.S. president with a clear vision of U.S. leadership in Asia would see the geopolitical context of the AIIB. In tandem with the New Silk Road, Maritime Silk Road, and Air Defense Identification Zone, the AIIB reflects the symbiosis of Chinese soft power prowess and hard power calculations. Both serve to fortify China’s growing stature and leverage in recasting the region’s strategic landscape with China at the epicenter. The decision of 57 countries to join the AIIB suggests that a tectonic shift toward a new world economic order is underway. China has surpassed the United States as the world’s largest economy in purchasing-power parity terms and will eventually bridge the GDP gap with the U.S., according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data. It is, therefore, increasingly incumbent on Washington and the next administration to ascertain how the United States will shape this emerging Asia-centric global economic system. To this end, moving the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) – the crux of the U.S. rebalance to Asia – forward requires the White House and Congress to prevent local politics from trumping national economic interests, and constraining long-term geopolitical leverage in the region.

Governance. The next U.S. administration would see that the rebalance could be advanced if AIIB fosters a culture of transparent governance and social responsibility throughout Asia. The real proof of AIIB’s efficacy is for China to ensure that the level of AIIB governance standards is commensurate with those of the World Bank, International Monetary Fund and Asian Development Bank. Whether it is forging the Pakistan-China economic corridor to connect gas and oil pipelines to Middle East, building agriculture, telecommunications and transportation infrastructure in Africa or constructing ports in the Indian Ocean, funding and implementation oversight of China’s investments in global megaprojects have and will continue to warrant investor, stakeholder and policy scrutiny. Perceptions of corruption continue to taint China’s international image despite President Xi Jinping’s ongoing anti-corruption campaign. China ranked 100th among 175 countries in Transparency International’s 2014 Corruption Perceptions Index – a significant drop from its 80th in the 2013 index. With the establishment of the AIIB, China will need to demonstrate credible accountability in upholding international rules and norms.

Currency. One main function of the AIIB will be to facilitate the internationalization of China’s currency – renminbi (RMB). While the next White House may understand the impact of RMB internationalization on global capital markets, it will face the challenge of managing the domestic politics of Chinese currency with Congress and constituents. Congressional review over current TPP legislation, which includes an amendment against Chinese currency manipulation, is just as much a political contest as it is a “greenback vs redback” currency debate. By joining AIIB, Singapore and London – both global financial leaders – will strengthen their market positions as centers for RMB-denominated offshore transactions. London intends to be the first RMB clearing house outside Asia, according to the U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne. The AIIB founding and RMB internationalization are interlinked vectors driving economic integration between Asia and the rest of the world. US allies are capitalizing on this trend. U.S. presidential candidates would benefit from grasping its long-term impact on the U.S. rebalance to Asia.
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BRICS Development Bank won’t rival China-led AIIB, but complement – CBR head — RT Business

BRICS Development Bank won’t rival China-led AIIB, but complement – CBR head
Published time: April 17, 2015 16:34

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The BRICS New Development Bank and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), both seen as alternatives to US – led institutions, will not compete, but rather complement each other, said the head of the Central Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina.

Nabiullina made the statement Thursday in Washington where she is attending the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank.

"I don't think there's less energy (around the BRICS bank). We didn't feel that. To the contrary, all the representatives of all the countries ... were very motivated to reach speedy practical results," she said.

Both development institutions have been gaining popularity and are seen as a counterbalance to the IMF and World Bank. President Obama has reacted insisting the US should make the rules for the global economy, and not China. The US and Japan have not applied for the membership in either of the new development banks.

Also in Washington Russia’s Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said that the BRICS New Development Bank will be launched before the BRICS summit in Ufa scheduled for July 9-10.

“We discussed a legal framework for this bank, agreed that by that time [July BRICS summit – Ed.] all of the countries should ratify agreements to set up the Bank,” Siluanov said.

The BRICS development bank will start with Russia, Brazil, India, China and South Africa, and was first proposed in 2012. The Bank will be open to other members of the United Nations, the Russian Finance Ministry said in March.

Each of the five-member countries is expected to allocate an equal share of the $50 billion startup capital, which will be expanded to $100 billion. Russia has agreed to provide $2 billion from the federal budget for the bank over the next seven years. The money will be used to finance development projects in emerging economies. India will serve as the first five-year rotating president, and the first Chairman of the Board will be Brazilian.

The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), established in 2014 by China, will finance infrastructure projects like the construction of roads, railways, airports in the Asia-Pacific Region. Its headquarters will be in Beijing. The initial subscribed capital of AIIB will be $50 billion and is planned to be increased to $100 billion.
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China’s AIIB: The Final Tally | The Diplomat

China’s AIIB: The Final Tally
Interesting facts about the members of China’s AIIB — with even more interesting implications.
By Shannon Tiezzi
April 17, 2015

The deadline for prospective founding members to submit their applications to China’s new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) came on March 31, leading a flurry of final applications from countries all over the world. When the dust settled, China moved on to selecting who would actually made the cut. Yesterday, the AIIB released its final, approved list of founding members (excluding Taiwan). With 57 countries signed up, the AIIB includes well over a quarter of the world’s nations. Even more interestingly, 16 of the world’s 20 largest economies are on board (with the U.S., Japan, Mexico, and Canada as the holdouts).

So which countries will be joining the AIIB? Here’s a map based on the list of prospective founding members found on AIIB’s official website:

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A few key points stand out here.

For one thing, Japan is nearly alone in Asia in not joining the AIIB. It’s the only major economy in all of Asia not to seek membership (Taiwan, as noted above, applied and was turned down, but will still seek to join later as an ordinary member). Looking at the other non-AIIB members in Asia – three are currently dealing with major uprisings (Iraq, Syria, and Yemen), one (Afghanistan) is undergoing its own fragile rebuilding process, one (Turkmenistan) avoids multilateral entanglements on principle, and one (North Korea) is extremely isolated internationally. Three of the other Asian non-applicants rank 116th (Papua New Guinea), 168th (Bhutan), and 174th (Timor-Leste) in terms of GDP, according to the World Bank. That’s not exactly great company for Japan. Even North Korea reportedly sought membership but was told it would need far more economic transparency to join.

The AIIB also has great representation in Europe. Nearly all of Western Europe (save Belgium and Ireland) officially signed up for the new bank. It’s a different story in Eastern Europe, where countries generally don’t have the excess capital to invest in an extra-regional bank (and thus Eastern European countries are not involved with the Asian Development Bank either). Meanwhile, the interest in AIIB from Western Europe marks a stark contrast between that region and North America. The U.S., Canada, and Mexico all declined to sign on, with Washington being particularly critical of the new project (including pressuring its friends and allies not to join).

However, the glut of Western European countries involved in AIIB doesn’t mean Europe will be able to play a major role in the bank’s governance. The AIIB’s chief, Jin Liqun, previously said that non-Asian countries will be limited to holding a total of 25 percent of AIIB shares. That means China can claim all of the prestige of having Western Europe join its new pet project without actually have to share control.

It also means that Asian countries with governance concerns (including Australia and South Korea) will have to be more vocal about these issues to ensure AIIB actually lives up to international standards. China has announced that negotiations over the AIIB charter will take place in April and May, with the signing of the charter scheduled for the end of June.

One other intriguing point: All of the BRICS nations – Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa – are on board. That means double duty for these countries, as they are also in the midst of getting the new BRICS Development Bank (formally launched last July) up and running.
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China says AIIB not a bid to overthrow system

China says AIIB not a bid to overthrow system
Published: 2:50 pm, Saturday, 18 April 2015

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Vice Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao

China's proposed infrastructure bank for Asia is intended to complement, not replace, existing lenders dominated by the US and Japan, a senior Chinese official says.

Vice Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao said after a meeting of the Group of 20 leading world economies that China has proposed the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, or AIIB, to help fill an estimated $US8 trillion ($A10.25 trillion) gap in infrastructure funding for the region over the next decade.

Fifty-seven countries have signed up, including 16 of the world's 20 largest economies.

Notable exceptions are the US and Japan, which are the leading shareholders of the World Bank and Asian Development Bank and have expressed concerns over the new bank's governance standards.

But China's proposal has been a diplomatic coup, as Australia, Britain, France and Germany have broken with the US and joined Asian governments in seeking membership.

The US also faces growing criticism over the refusal by congress to approve reforms to the International Monetary Fund that would increase the voting power of fast-emerging economies such as China, Brazil and India, and boost the Fund's resources to help countries facing financial troubles.

Zhu said China supports and contributes to the IMF and World Bank and plays a constructive role in the current international financial system.

'We want to improve that and enhance that capacity rather than overthrow the current system,' he told the Atlantic Council think tank.

US officials opposed the creation of the AIIB, saying it might undercut institutions like the World Bank by extending credit without adequate environmental, labour and social safeguards.

Zhu said the AIIB's founding members would meet later this month to discuss the bank's mandate and he hoped those negotiations could be concluded within two to three months.

- AP
 
I don't understand Japan, who gave up "preferential treatment" to side with US and got nothing in return.
Japan is now increasingly isolated and marginalized in Asia.

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Japan declines China's offer of a top position in AIIB|WantChinaTimes.com

Japan declines China's offer of a top position in AIIB
Staff Reporter 2015-04-19 09:25 (GMT+8)

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German chancellor Angela Merkel and Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe shake hands at a press conference held at the prime minister's official residence, Tokyo, Mar. 9. (File photo/ Xinhua)

Beijing had offered Japan a position as top-ranking vice-president at the China-backed Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) but Japan declined the offer and chose to align with the US instead, Japan's Nikkei reported on Apr. 15.

Sources also reveal that Germany has asked Japan to join the AIIB, but Japan's government spokesman has refuted the statement.

Jin Liqun, China's former deputy finance minister and the interim head of AIIB, reportedly spoke with Takehiko Nakao, president of Asian Development Bank (ADB), at the Diaoyutai State Guest House in Beijing.

Jin expressed China wish for Japan to join the AIIB and that he was willing to explain this in person to the Japanese government if necessary, according to informed sources.

Jin, a former vice president of the ADB, is deemed the most probable candidate for the position of AIIB's first president. His meeting with Nakao was on Mar. 22, nine days before the deadline for applications to become one of the organization's founder members.

In addition to offering Japan the post of vice president, Jin also proposed the creation of a post of director which would represent Japan only.

Despite the preferential deal, Japan has stood with the US and chose to stay away from the AIIB.

In a telephone call on Apr. 1 between German chancellor Angela Merkel and Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe, the Japanese leader asked Germany to collaborate in an effort to ensure transparency in the operation of the AIIB, while Merkel urged Japan to join the AIIB, Japan's Kyodo News reports informed sources as saying.

Yoshihide Suga, Japan's chief cabinet secretary, denied the Kyodo News report. He said in a press conference on Apr. 16 that Japan is cooperating with the Group of Seven (G7) in regard to the AIIB.

Among the G7 nations, the UK, Germany, France and Italy plan to join the AIIB as founding members. The total numbers of founding members stands at 57.

The US has recently stated that they welcome the establishment of the AIIB. Yang Tao, assistant to the director of Institute of Finance and Banking at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, has said that the US had not expected to see so many developed nations in the west join the AIIB. The AIIB will become more influential as more countries join, and the US would be marginalized in the new financial institution if it does not take part.

There are scholars and former politicians in Japan calling for it to join the regional financial institution. Abe is to meet with US President Barack Obama on Apr. 28 and the AIIB is expected to be on their agenda.
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Now, countries are positioning their candidates for senior AIIB positions.
Regardless, it's China who is calling the shots
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Singapore Mulls Need for Nation’s Presence in Management of AIIB - Bloomberg Business

Singapore Mulls Need for Nation’s Presence in Management of AIIB
by Andrew Mayeda & Sharon Chen
April 19, 2015 6:31 AM AEST

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Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Singapore's Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister. Singapore joined 20 countries in being first to sign up for the AIIB in October. Photographer: Munshi Ahmed/Bloomberg

Singapore, one of the earliest nations to back a China-led development lender, is among countries considering the need for a presence in the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank’s management.

“We were one of the early prospective founding members. We’ve moved early, and we’ve encouraged others to move as well,” Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam said in an interview in Washington on Friday. “Several countries including ourselves are looking at whether we should have our own candidates represented within the management of the institution, but it’s too early to say anything on that.”

Singapore joined 20 countries in being first to sign up for the AIIB in October. Since then, U.S. allies from Australia to the U.K. have opted to back the bank, confounding efforts by the administration of President Barack Obama to campaign against the institution.

“There’s now a recognition that the AIIB will be a win-win, not just for China or those who joined early, but for the global system,” Shanmugaratnam said. “There’s no lack of infrastructural needs out there. There’s a need for more capacity. If it does at the same time mean a little bit of competition, I would say that’s not a bad thing. Not a bad thing as long as it’s not a race to the bottom in terms of standards, but a race to the top.”

The AIIB has made clear its intention to be an institution with high standards in governance and in selecting the type of projects, said Shanmugaratnam, 58. Extensive discussion is taking place on the articles of agreement and governance roles, he said.
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