22 Apr, 2012, 07.16AM IST,
Is Agni V the silver bullet that India was looking for?
By: Josy Joseph
In April 19, from a nondescript island off India's east coast, a 50-tonne monster made of assorted metals and classified chemicals blasted off, pierced the Earth's atmosphere, turned around, re-entered it, and plunged into the southern Indian Ocean with a thunderous thud.
Arguably, it was a small, yet, significant step for missile technology, but if you go by 24X7 TV and social media networks, the launch of Agni V from Wheeler Island off the Odisha coast was a giant leap for India. The prime minister congratulated the scientists of Defence Research & Development Organisation (DRDO) - an outfit often pulled up for perceived slowness in cutting-edge research - its scientists were paraded as national heroes; even China took note, making noises about cooperation, not competition.
So, now that the dust has settled well in Wheeler Island, it's time for a reality check. Is Agni V the silver bullet that India was looking for?
A 500-km Restraint
Well, the fundamental strategic reality is that no means of conventional catching-up will give India an edge in the world it exists in. For one, we just don't have the kind of money that a US or China has to pump into our defence lines. Then of course, there's the simple fact that we have an awful lot of catching up to do in the conventional space.
As for Agni V, let's begin with the range, its most celebrated aspect: all of China, most of Europe. That the range of Agni V was said to be 5,000 km, just 500 km short of the conventional minimum range for an inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM), was a deliberate strategic restraint imposed by the Manmohan Singh government. It is among the many aspects of UPA government's strategy that is defining India's military projection, or the lack of it.
Continuing over-dependence on military imports, lack of major efforts to leapfrog technologies, over-zealous celebrations over achievements like Agni V and failure to achieve fresh goals in military research are defining India's military ideology that is woefully inadequate given the challenges.
But yes, the intermediate range ballistic missile (IRBM), is a game changer in many ways. It is the most modern variation of the Agni family, providing a quicker response under India's no-first-strike policy, in case an adversary was to launch a nuclear attack.
Two More Tests
Agni V is a three-stage missile, each stage powered by solid propellants and with a canister-launch system, capabilities that make it a more agile system. It can be launched quicker than older missiles. It definitely is a very valuable land-based second-strike capability, a crucial component of the triad (on ground, air and sea) of nuclear capability towards which India is making definite strides.
The DRDO would carry out two more tests in about a year-and-half before the production of the missile would commence. It will then be handed over to the Strategic Command.
DRDO would now be working on equipping Agni V with multiple independent re-entry vehicles (MIRVs), which would allow launching several warheads on different targets from a single missile. MIRV would further firm up India's second-strike capability with a limited number of missiles.
It's chief VK Saraswat says there is no plan to cap India's missile programmes, although political sources have clearly indicated that for now the country wouldn't be looking at longer-range missile, which would officially usher India into the select ICBM club.
Real Reality Check
The euphoria over the success of Agni V, when put to a realistic assessment, shows a desperate effort to cover up for the bigger failures of India's indigenous military research, and its political inability to workout a definite roadmap for its peaceful rise next to China, in the post-Cold War era, where strategic focus has shifted to Asia with foreign powers from the US to UK manoeuvring in the nearby waters.
As a scientific achievement, the missile technology developed isn't any breakthrough on the global stage, given the fact that China, US and many European powers have much more advanced, longer-range and more sophisticated missiles in their armoury. While it is developing an anti-ballistic missile shield, India has failed to really address the immediate threat of a missile strike from Pakistan, or by rogue elements, where the response time would be just a few minutes.
Few Good Solutions
India's military research has failed to come up with unique solutions. In conventional military spend, India would never be able to match up to China and other global powers. While US spent 45.7% of the global military expenditure last year, China was second at 5.5%. India is way below at just 2.3%. China is galloping ahead, and is estimated to overtake the US by 2035.
A military strategy, to protect its autonomy and economic growth, cannot be mere development of longer-range missiles or other conventional weapons. It has to be unconventional technological leap, of achieving capabilities within the limited resources available.
That would call for determined efforts to bring in domestic industries and revamping of military research. That means a really radical change. This would require a firm political leadership, something the UPA government has failed to exhibit so far. Agni V isn't fiery enough for India.
(The writer is Senior Editor, Times of India)
