Agni III Test Tomorrow.

[HariPrasad]

In the war it is not wise to guess that other country always make a correct decision. Not worth a risk.

Actually our Military may take the decision in this regards but what is important from my point of view is that we have got a very potent weapon in our hand to which we can use way beyond the traditional area of nuclear strike to a precision weapon to neutralize enemy high value assets with non nuclear high explosives strike. The precision of weapon allow us uo use the same for non traditional role.

 

[trident2010]

Actually our Military may take the decision in this regards but what is important from my point of view is that we have got a very potent weapon in our hand to which we can use way beyond the traditional area of nuclear strike to a precision weapon to neutralize enemy high value assets with non nuclear high explosives strike. The precision of weapon allow us uo use the same for non traditional role.

Yes, on paper it is a good idea but imagine if our enemy does the same and fire few 3000km range BMs to say Delhi, Agra and few other places. Our BM defence radar would lit up and we may think few nukes are disguised among the conventional ones. This much is enough to cause panic.

I think it is better to use long range cruise missiles with high strength explosives.

 

[HariPrasad]

Yes, on paper it is a good idea but imagine if our enemy does the same and fire few 3000km range BMs to say Delhi, Agra and few other places. Our BM defence radar would lit up and we may think few nukes are disguised among the conventional ones. This much is enough to cause panic.

I think it is better to use long range cruise missiles with high strength explosives.

In war, Military targets are hit and not civilians generally. We already have that apprehension and that is why we are building up BMD. You see all these are possible scenarios. The people discretely involved may take decision considering in mind the prevailing circumstances . The most important thing from strategic point of view is to have the ability to hit the enemy either in retaliation or in preemptive strike. We are moving in a direction to have it. Span of our nuclear weapon delivery system is expanding in the non nuclear ares. For example, Normally our enemy will about nuclear strike from our long range missiles but now they will have to worry about conventional strike using same weapon like US has equipped her long range missile with traditional warhead.

 

[The Deterrent]

Fine,

I am not here to change your opinion. You simply said that you are refuting and do not argue why.So I do not have any point in arguing further.

I did say "why". I was clarifying that the claim was a wrong one, whoever said it.

The guys who questioned are not the authority and do not hold the same authenticity as the guys who claimed it a success. No doubt that Dr. Iyenger is a prominent scientist but has retired a long back. He is not supposed to have the full detail on the subject as Mr. Kakodkar and Mr. Chidambaram have. Mr. Kakodkar has very explicitly stated that the TN explosion was confirmed by more than 1 method Such as radio active study of sample obtained from test site etc. Each and every study has confirmed the occurrence of fusion test with planned yield.

Is there any other logical explanation of Dr. Santhanam's and Dr.Iyenger's claims then? I hope you know how much of a risk it is to come before the public and make a claim like that.
I really don't think that this guy pictured below (Dr. Santhanam, white haired), who is transferring the firing keys to the range safety officer an hour before Pokhran-II tests, is making baseless claims.

Even the international assesments put Shakti-I at around 30kt.
What Are the Real Yields of India's Tests?

Ofcourse, Why not?

After all I am not comparing a WW II missile with any 2010 missile. I am comparing 2 missile of same country with contemporary time period of development. Answer me a question. If a 17 ton missile can do batter than a much heavy missile, what is the point in keeping Agni 3? Why not use A4 in plce of A3? Do you have any answer?

Agni-III has more payload capacity and has a greater diameter which could help in developing MIRV bus in the future. More importantly, it served as a base for developing Agni-V.

On the other hand Agni-IV could be taken as a technology demonstrator (for systems used in Agni-V), and a relatively low-cost (Agni-II-infrastructure friendly) missile with rudimentary payload (1000kg).

No. Only second stage of A4 used composite motor against Margin steel motor used by A3. A3's RV is longer and than A4. Why? Simply because it is developed to carry huge load. It can either be a huge conventional load which A4 can not carry or MIRV in a large No which A4 can not carry. Else why would they build large RV? This in itself is an indicator that A3 is a potent missile compare to A4. If A4 can hit 4000 KM with X payload, A3 can hit 4000 KM with (X+y) load or hit 4000+A KM with same load as A4.
And,

Who told you that technologies developed for A4 shall not flow down in A3? Tassy thomas has stated that his team reduced the weight of missile to 22 tons. Now compare a 17 tons of missile with 1.3 dia motor and 22 tons of missile with 2.0 dia motor with same technology. You will get an answer whether A3 can hit 5500 Km with a huge load or not?

Yes but still that makes a huge difference, specially when the missile is already relatively lighter.
I agree with what you have stated here about Agni-III's RV, but, in my opinion, you are making personal assumptions about potential capabilities of Agni-III's payload and range. It is not simple algebra.
ReV payloads are standard, unless a new variant is designed and its performance is validated through flight tests.

I didn't say anywhere that the technology wouldn't be passed down. It just hasn't been passed down YET. The process of changing the physical characteristics such as motor's body, takes time to develop and can only be brought into service by further flight testing.

Had there been No video of Brahms striking the target 0 CEP, you would have denied the same also like many of your country man denies today. We are claiming because our prominent scientist categorically states that we achieved that which nobody else is believed to have achieved. It is the same way as we believe the claim of other country such as US or Russia which has history of making reliable claims only. Where as your hypothesis is based on the thinking that India is not such an advanced country which can have such sophistication in missile technology. It seems that you and people like you will take some time to accept the reality that we have taken a giant leap in missile technology where we can make batter than the best. I only do not say that. It is the word of Dr. Avinash Chander.

Why would I doubt the accuracy of an anti-ship missile? How is this related to CEP of ballistic missiles?

I find it really hard to believe that single-digit CEP is achievable by ReVs darting through the atmosphere at ~Mach 4. True that the course of the ReV can be corrected in space to meters, but the vibrations and shocks received by it during re-entry throw it off course by around ~100 meters (average ICBM). I would really appreciate some reference or explanation regarding that except the claim of Dr. Chander.

 

[HariPrasad]

I did say "why". I was clarifying that the claim was a wrong one, whoever said it.

I would say your are entitled to your opinion.

Is there any other logical explanation of Dr. Santhanam's and Dr.Iyenger's claims then? I hope you know how much of a risk it is to come before the public and make a claim like that.
I really don't think that this guy pictured below (Dr. Santhanam, white haired), who is transferring the firing keys to the range safety officer an hour before Pokhran-II tests, is making baseless claims.
Even the international assesments put Shakti-I at around 30kt.
What Are the Real Yields of India's Tests?

Posting the picture is not going to help you prove your point. The Guy watching the key hand over is the highest authority of this exercise and he has categorically endorsed the test and given a comprehensive clarification of each and every point raised. Same is in public forum. Not only that, he and chidambaram has shown their willingness to discussed the issue if counter claim is made by any scientific community. I do not want to go in details of the seismic result obtained and how multiple explosion made the seismic signals so complex to analyze. And so far as baseless claim is concern, if I belive that Mr. Samantha's claim is right, obviously Mr. Kakodkar can not be right same time. I believe that Mr. Kakodkar and Mr. Chidambaram is the highest authority and hence the most believable.

Agni-III has more payload capacity and has a greater diameter which could help in developing MIRV bus in the future. More importantly, it served as a base for developing Agni-V.
On the other hand Agni-IV could be taken as a technology demonstrator (for systems used in Agni-V), and a relatively low-cost (Agni-II-infrastructure friendly) missile with rudimentary payload (1000kg).

Agreed. But it does not prove that A3 has a laser range than A4.

Yes but still that makes a huge difference, specially when the missile is already relatively lighter.
I agree with what you have stated here about Agni-III's RV, but, in my opinion, you are making personal assumptions about potential capabilities of Agni-III's payload and range. It is not simple algebra.
ReV payloads are standard, unless a new variant is designed and its performance is validated through flight tests.
I didn't say anywhere that the technology wouldn't be passed down. It just hasn't been passed down YET. The process of changing the physical characteristics such as motor's body, takes time to develop and can only be brought into service by further flight testing.

You are right and I never said that A3 currently carries MIRV.

Right from the beginning, A3 was designed as a missile which can carry a huge load i.e Much more than standard 1 ton. So MIRV was the focus area. I do not say that it is equipped with MIRV, but certainly MIRV was focus. Looking the capability of A4, the claim of A3 carrying huge payload to a distance of 5500 KM is a very acceptable preposition.

If you look at A3 in light of Tassy thomas' statement that A3's weight was reduced to 22 tons, you will realize that A4 technology has flown down to A3.

Why would I doubt the accuracy of an anti-ship missile? How is this related to CEP of ballistic missiles?

No it is not related as you rightly said. I only said that we said that we have 0 cep in cruise missile and we have that (vIDEO). When our scientist said that we have it in ballistic missile, it must be there in place else they won't claim. You simply can not build a hypothesis that since some advance country do not have that so India will not it.

I find it really hard to believe that single-digit CEP is achievable by ReVs darting through the atmosphere at ~Mach 4. True that the course of the ReV can be corrected in space to meters, but the vibrations and shocks received by it during re-entry throw it off course by around ~100 meters (average ICBM). I would really appreciate some reference or explanation regarding that except the claim of Dr. Chander.

Dr. chander's said that about Prahar and tassy claimed that at 2nd test of A5. Her statement itself is more than any reference. Still I post one reference but I doubt that you will once again question the reliability of that reference too. We are currently at a stage where we will not at all happy to achieve 100 m CEP as you said is standard for these kind of Missile. We shall consider anything less than single digit accuracy not a success.


The ASL retrieved this intolerable deterrence situation somewhat with the accurate, lightweight, Agni-V missile. This Agni will eventually be all-composite, including the casing and rocket motors made of Kevlar-carbon-carbon, Guidance on Chip for terminal accuracy, and distributed communications nodes through the length of the missile to minimise wiring. As the two tests of this missile have proved, using the Russian Glonass GPS and the on-board inertial guidance system and ring laser gyroscope, 15-20 meter CEP (circular error probable — a measure of accuracy) at 5,500km range has been achieved. Moreover, armed with 4-8 MIRV (Multiple Independently-targetable Re-entry Vehicles) warheads — a technology permitting a single missile to carry multiple bombs for dispersed targeting that has been a “screwdriver’s turn away” from being test-ready but whose testing has not been approved by Manmohan Singh, the Agni-V range can be extended to intercontinental distances.

Nuclear effects of Agni-V -The New Indian Express

 

[gslv mk3]

The very fact that a couple of high-ranking, officially involved persons refuted Indian Government's official claims of thermonuclear testing suggests that that test was not a successful one. Nobody goes out in the public to make such claims just because he has "doubts". As for the explanations given by Mr. Kakodkar, well of course he will try to cover it up.

And I guess you didnt see the statement of the government as well as his colleagues.

P.S. You need to dial down that nationalistic overconfidence of yours, because making statements about Agni-III having more than 5500km range and MIRVs, and Ballistic missiles having 2m CEP (not even achieved by the much slower, GPS-guided Excalibur Artillery Round) and capable of cruise flight profile at the terminal stage isn't going to prove anything.

Well,let me express my view-Agni III range is said to be 3500 km with a 2.3 tonne payload,and the heaviest warhead India has is 200 kT FBF weighing around 1 tonne used in earlier Agni s.The range is said to be 5000 km with a 1.5 tonne payload.

And now we are hearing about RVs that are designed for TNWs,any guesses about the range?

Re-Entry Vehicle: RV-Mk.4
Agni-III RV supports a wide range of weapons, with total payload mass ranging from 600 to 3,490 Kg. The missile range is a function of payload (see graph below).

This is the first Re-Entry Vehicle (RV) that is designed & optimised for the new lighter 200Kt thermonuclear payload weapon and corresponding to a very long range. The 200Kt yield weapon reportedly weights less than 450 Kg, however some sources indicate a mass of between 300 to 200 Kg4. The sharp high‘²’ (Ballistic coefficient5) RV design employs 17 cm diameter blunt nose with a nose cone section 2 meter long and half angle of 11°, followed by a 0.65 meter long cylindrical section that is terminated by with a 0.5 meter long, 1.5 meter diameter interface to the missile adapter.

Compared to Agni-II this RV is shorter, more voluminous and just 3.3 meter long. The high ‘²’ RV in combination with an all carbon composite body enables higher re-entry speed even with a lighter weight payload

Instead of conventional bus architecture, the RV Mk-4 is self-contained with high altitude thrusters, navigation and re-entry control systems, making it very accurate. It is world’s first all composite RV and uses no metal backup7. The all carbon composite re-entry heat shields with multi-directional ablative carbon-carbon re-entry nose tip make it very light and tough8. The new lightweight composite case can withstand temperatures of up to 5,000º centigrade9 thus its conic half angle choice is more aggressive, yet capable of all re-entry velocities. This very light RV mass uniquely enables disproportionate large increase in missile’s range. The RV has been flight tested before its use in Agni-III10.

There is lot more info on the web,but thats from a forum 'that shouldn't even be named here' ( or else I'd get banned ),So I cant post the link

 

[gslv mk3]

P.S. You need to dial down that nationalistic overconfidence of yours, because making statements about Agni-III having more than 5500km range and MIRVs, and Ballistic missiles having 2m CEP (not even achieved by the much slower, GPS-guided Excalibur Artillery Round) and capable of cruise flight profile at the terminal stage isn't going to prove anything.

MIRVs are already under development.
And Agni III range is 3500 km with a 2.5 tonne payload.With a 1.5 tonne payload,the range is 5000 km.

And of course,there is no Indian RV weighing 2.5 tonnes,heaviest one is 200kT FBFs weighing around a tonne,used on earlier Agni s

And the Agni III RV is optimised for a TNW,

Agni [Strategic Ballistic Missile]

Manoeuvring Re-Entry Vehicle: Agni RV-Mk.3

Agni-III RV supports a wide range of weapons, with total payload mass ranging from 600 kg to 3,490 kg including decoys and other ABM countermeasures. The missile range is a function of payload.

Unlike Agni-I & Agni-II RV that is sub-optimal & force-fitted solution[107] to carry the lighter Thermonuclear payload that were tested in 1998, the RV-Mk3 is the first RV that is designed & optimized for the new lighter 200Kt thermonuclear payload weapon and corresponding long range[108]. The 200Kt yield weapon reportedly weighs less than 450 Kg, however other sources indicate a mass of between 300 to 200 Kg[109].

Agni-III with single new warhead requires a bigger RV body that can adapt with the large diameter motor. Compared to Agni-II this RV is shorter, more voluminous and 3.3 meter long. The large base diameter makes it unviable for high speed reentry, thus this could be a payload adapter section that jettisons the real RV located in the front part. The high ‘β’(Ballistic coefficient[110]) RV in combination with an all carbon composite body enables higher re-entry speed even with a light weight payload. The sharp high ‘β’ RV-Mk.3 design employs distinctly smaller 17 cm diameter blunt nose about 1.7 meter long and half angle of 10°.The high ‘β’ RV in combination with an all carbon composite body enables higher re-entry speed even with a light weight payload[111]. Like the RV Mk-2 it is also carries velocity correction package. It is perhas world’s first all composite RV and uses no metal backup[112]. The all carbon composite re-entry heat shields with multi-directional ablative carbon-carbon re-entry nose tip[113] make it very light and tough. The new lightweight composite case can withstand temperatures of up to 5,000º C[114]thus its conic half angle choice is more aggressive, yet capable of all possible re-entry velocities. This very light RV mass uniquely enables large increase in missile’s range. The new RV has been flight tested on another platform before its use on Agni-III[115].

 

[indiatester]

I would like India to test the thermo nuclear weapon again. May be coincide it with Deepavali or something and say... its just one more cracker.
I don't understand the need for self imposed moratorium. Remember when France tested in 1996 1995-1996 French nuclear tests - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
We should do it too.

 

[Srinivas]

I would like India to test the thermo nuclear weapon again. May be coincide it with Deepavali or something and say... its just one more cracker.
I don't understand the need for self imposed moratorium. Remember when France tested in 1996 1995-1996 French nuclear tests - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
We should do it too.

Send a space mission to sun and explode a thermo nuclear device close to sun. MIRV and thermo nuclear weapon along with guidance technology tested in single test . Simple

 

[Alpha1]

Send a space mission to sun and explode a thermo nuclear device close to sun. MIRV and thermo nuclear weapon along with guidance technology tested in single test . Simple

Are you plannig a HEMP on the Sun?

 

[KAL-EL]

it was a fission device which is way less powerful than a fusion one

I thought of you when I saw this

 

[Srinivas]

Are you plannig a HEMP on the Sun?

Sun itself is a huge nuclear fusion device, not much difference, Since every time sun experiences nuclear reactions of large scale.

 

[Broccoli]

Well,let me express my view-Agni III range is said to be 3500 km with a 2.3 tonne payload,and the heaviest warhead India has is 200 kT FBF weighing around 1 tonne used in earlier Agni s.The range is said to be 5000 km with a 1.5 tonne payload.

India should be able to do better than 200kt/1000kg weapon, but of course main problem is lack of testing.

MR-41 Warhead
The MR-41 was France's first boosted fission warhead, and its highest yield non-thermonuclear warhead. The MR-41 was in the stockpile from 1971 to 1979 and armed the MSBS M1 and M2 SLBMs. The initial development of the warhead began in 1963, and a second development stage ran from 1966 to 1971. This design was based on highly enriched uranium boosted with deuterium and tritium. It was tested 15 July 1968 and 3 August 1968. The final design was tested 12 June 1971. It had a surprisingly light weight for a high yield fission bomb, about 700 kg, and had a yield of 500 kt. Fabrication of warhead components began in 1969. The MR-41 went into operational service with the first patrol of Le Redoubtable on 28 January 1972. About 35 warheads were built to support two sets of strategic submarine missiles loads (16 MSBS M1/M2 missiles each for two subs). The MR-41 was replaced by the TN-60, which armed the MSBS M20, between 1977 and 1979.

France's Nuclear Weapons - Development of the French Arsenal

 

[gslv mk3]

India should be able to do better than 200kt/1000kg weapon, but of course main problem is lack of testing.

France's Nuclear Weapons - Development of the French Arsenal

TNs have been tested already,and new RVs are made for 200kT TNs (400 kg ).

 

[kurup]

I would like India to test the thermo nuclear weapon again. May be coincide it with Deepavali or something and say... its just one more cracker.
I don't understand the need for self imposed moratorium. Remember when France tested in 1996 1995-1996 French nuclear tests - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
We should do it too.

France being a nuclear power according to NPT will face no problem testing nuclear weapons.

That will not be the case with India . We will have to face sanctions .