Afghanistan Post-2014 Open discussion.

[pakistani342]

I must protest a bit - I was hoping for a more rigorous debate where you use references and structured arguments - I feel you have made assertions without really backing them up and you have not responded point by point to the arguments that I have presented.

Never the less I think I'll respond to this post in two or three posts because there is simply a lot to cover.

Although I can acknowledge some of your points but I don’t share your gloomy picture of the current state and the future of Afghanistan.

I think we're jumping ahead here - we should look at the trends, facts, compare them to similar situations in other regions/countries/times.

To be frank Afghans are more concerned with corruption in the state apparatus than the Taliban, Afghans ask is why are we giving so much attention to a proxy group, make institutions stronger, focus on the economy and the Taliban will be irrelevant. Have you seen the reaction of the Afghan of the government and the civil society to the opening of the Taliban office, they think that peace talk is worth a shot but not at the expense of what we have achieved over the last 10 years.

I feel we are going in circles - but I guess I'll give it one more go at least.

I think your logic is flawed, at least how you are presenting your arguments. They don't seem to build on a -> b, b->c and hence a -> c; let me illustrate:

1. I find it hard how you make the inference that since the Afghans are not concerned about the Taliban they face a promising future -- this is akin to saying that an overweight man who does not care about his high calorie intake will fare well health wise? or am I missing something here.

2. Now onto this: "Afghans ask is why are we giving so much attention to a proxy group, make institutions stronger, focus on the economy and the Taliban will be irrelevant." - of course the part about *institutions stronger* would be nirvana but the open questions (and I'll venture some answers) are:

a. can Afghans pay for these institutions: not really not in the next ten years (see below)?

b. is the World going to continue to pay for a kleptocratic Afghan regime - unlikely - the world has no strong affinity or apathy towards the Afghan people - everyone wishes you well, but everyone has their own problems which I hope you understand take precedence over yours. I think it was Stephen Cohen who once quipped that Pakistan would be treated at par with Congo had it not had nuclear weapons - I would encourage you to see how the Congo is faring in terms of international support - that is a realistic baseline if you want to see how Afghanistan will fare past 2014 - and by the way Congo's human development index is 0.534, Afghanistan's is 0.374 and Pakistan's is 0.515

c. Do Afghans have the capacity to build their institutions - no - again see my earlier comments on the available talent pool - as a yard stick the skills shortage is so acute that even the hated semi skilled Pakistani workers have to be brought in to work on construction gigs - now extrapolate this to experienced, schooled technocrats - another example, the ANA is the most trusted institution in Afghanistan yet roughly 90% of recruits do not have a 3rd grade schooling, 9/10 (need a reference) are drug addicts and 30% of the force deserts every year.

d. Can the Afghans leverage their mineral resources given the outlined challenges - no - I would encourage your to read up on two phenomenon: "stranded gas" and "the resource curse" - further you can see how the investors at Aynak, Haji Gak, Amu-Darya Basin are all scaling back - again we're talking about the Afghans tapping these resource over the next 10 years not 20-50 years. Oh and did I forget you are a landlocked nation with poor relations with the neighbors that really matter: Pakistan and Iran.

3. Now onto: "Have you seen the reaction of the Afghan of the government and the civil society to the opening of the Taliban office" - the reading of the sharp reaction of the Afghan government and nascent Afghan civil society by journalistic publications was more of fear rather than indifference - not knowing more about this point I would tend to agree with the fear interpretation: if the prospect of the Taliban being accommodated in a Lebanon style formula was pure fantasy it would not have resulted in a full court press by the Afghan elite (no ?)

4. On: "hey think that peace talk is worth a shot but not at the expense of what we have achieved over the last 10 years" - I think the point of "not at the expense of ..." is really moot - it's more a matter of what you can afford and what you cannot afford - do the current stake holders in the current Afghan dispensation have the wherewithal to keep the Taliban at bay no not - that is simply the questions [for example you can see that even Pakistan with it's much better trained and lead military and much bigger economy is having a hard time effectively dealing with the Taliban]

More on your other points later.

 

[Abu Zolfiqar]

Although I can acknowledge some of your points but I don’t share your gloomy picture of the current state and the future of Afghanistan. To be frank Afghans are more concerned with corruption in the state apparatus than the Taliban, Afghans ask is why are we giving so much attention to a proxy group, make institutions stronger, focus on the economy and the Taliban will be irrelevant. Have you seen the reaction of the Afghan of the government and the civil society to the opening of the Taliban office, they think that peace talk is worth a shot but not at the expense of what we have achieved over the last 10 years.

I also don’t share your opinion that since Pakistan has more educational institutions and a better educated class and thus by default Afghanistan will fare worse, I say that the main problem that Pakistan is facing is actually self created, the psyche of Pakistani establishment is domination through proxies and that is back firing. I would also like to add that Afghans may have disagreements but at the core we are very united as a nation. We are a dirt poor country but even 30 years of war has not made Afghanistan divided, but can u say the same about Pakistan? Do u really think Pakistan will stand as one piece should a similar threat face it ?

Pakistani establishment knows very well that Afghanistan will not able to pose a conventional threat to Pakistan but they must realize the amount of hatred they are creating in the minds of the normal Afghans is just phenomenal and anyone if cornered will fight back.

In short the region will fare well if Pakistan starts working with the Afghan state and not proxies and thus a strong Afghan state will be able to negotiate and sell the idea of Durand Line (in addition to others) much better to the Afghan nation.

there is no room for negotiation. Our side is content with the Durand line as is the international community....

if Afghanistan accepts the borders and stops supporting proxies of its own against Pakistan (or allowing third countries to use Afghan soil against Pakistan) then all will automatically be well

both countries have the means and basis for great cooperation - because of the ethnic crossover as well as linguistics

a lot of Pakistan's problems are indeed self created ones -- whether it be corruption or inept leadership; but our concerns vis a vis Afghanistan (especially post 2014) are valid and legitimate ones. And these concerns are much more important than how Afghans perceive us.

Afghans should first learn to accept eachother and stop fighting based on war-lordism and ethnicity. Afghanistan has itself to blame for all the civil wars it has faced. Our side also made mistakes but most of the blame goes on Afghan leadership (or lack thereof)

Pakistan isn't a rich country either and despite that we've been very welcoming to Afghans -- whether they be in the country as skilled or unskilled workers, or refugees.

 

[Sher Malang]

Bigger powers have now bigger stake in this region unfortunately nothing will go as smooth as being discussed here - none of us Afghans or Pakistanis have 100% control of these issues which is popping up everyday! certain elite members of Afghan and Pakistani authorized community are now their slaves; the only thing I can propose is people to people engagements that could be via anything education, tourism, jobs etc.. that will sure take some time to give results but it will surely do! in case the issue is left for the same people who are running these countries for decades will have no result because most of them put theirs and their order-givers interests in between rather thinking of the public in general.

 

[Tacticool]

How many American servicemen really died in afghanistan or wounded? Post true numbers only.

 

[truthlover]

Afghanistan post-2014

Here is an Afghan perspective. Let’s keep the discussion open and civilized.

1. 350K strong ANSF keeping order in the country and the Taliban at bay
2. The center of gravity shifts from the Taliban into economy and creating jobs, Taliban have been given too much attention. Give people jobs and they wont pick up an AK.
3. Afghanistan accepts the Durand line, and in return wants Pakistan to once and for all end supporting the elements that threaten Afghan security.
4. India, Iran, US are clearly told that they will not use Afghanistan as launching pad to destabilize other countries.
5. War based economy slowly transitioning into a sustainable market based economy
6. Investment in mineral mines across the country, creating thousands of local jobs and making sure that the locals secure it.
7. Afghanistan signs strategic agreement with various countries including a BSA with the United Statues, which will allow the US to have both military and political footprint in Afghanistan.
8. Afghanistan clearly stating to the neighbors, that it wants peaceful co-existence with all and wont allow its soil being used against them, in return it wants all regional neighbors to stop acting as spoilers.
9. In case neighbors wont stop acting as spoilers, Afghanistan uses item #7 to hurt neighbors in ways that will compel them to stop interfering in our affairs, as Afghanistan did successfully in the tenure of Dr. Najibullahs period.

This all is more than enough to prove that 9/11 was all drama and USA intended to stay in Afghanistan for achieving their own dirty political goals.
Well here is my analysis:
As long as there is a NATO and Indian presence in Afghanistan this war is a never ending story because first they are foreign invaders which have nothing in common with the Afghan people .They have different religion,different customs,traditions and the history.And top of that they are killing civilians including women and children in Afghanistan in the name of their so called war on terror.Also they are using Afghanistan as a platform for launching terrorist attacks inside Pakistan with the help of their own created terrorist groups like TTP(tehreek e Taliban Pakistan ) and BLA (Baluchistan liberation army ) which is a threat to our national security.The current ISAF/NATO strength in Afghanistan is 112,579 troops from 46 countries but after 2014 the strength will be just 15,000 -16,000 troops (mostly from USA).In the time period of over one decade 112,579 troops from 46 countries were unable to defeat Taliban what really makes those idiots think the 15,000 american troops after 2014 will defeat Taliban? Well we need a strategy to utilise our huge fighting force of Afghan Taliban in an effective way.
Less foreign troops in Afghanistan means less pressure on Afghan Taliban,so less Taliban will be be required to counter those american and Indian scums over there.The free or surplus Taliban force should be used for liberating Kashmir and slaughtering Hindus over there as well as for crushing TTP presence in Afghanistan.The upcoming situation is favourable is a night mare for hindu bhartis who will be butchered in Afghanistan as well in Indian occupied Kashmir.
From the valleys of Kashmir to the hills and deserts of Afghanistan we will rule and no matter how long it takes we will drive out or kill every single invader in our region.Go to hell with your BSA #7 no one can stop us .ALLAH HU AKBAR

 

[Varunastra]

This all is more than enough to prove that 9/11 was all drama and USA intended to stay in Afghanistan for achieving their own dirty political goals.
Well here is my analysis:
As long as there is a NATO and Indian presence in Afghanistan this war is a never ending story because first they are foreign invaders which have nothing in common with the Afghan people .They have different religion,different customs,traditions and the history.And top of that they are killing civilians including women and children in Afghanistan in the name of their so called war on terror.Also they are using Afghanistan as a platform for launching terrorist attacks inside Pakistan with the help of their own created terrorist groups like TTP(tehreek e Taliban Pakistan ) and BLA (Baluchistan liberation army ) which is a threat to our national security.The current ISAF/NATO strength in Afghanistan is 112,579 troops from 46 countries but after 2014 the strength will be just 15,000 -16,000 troops (mostly from USA).In the time period of over one decade 112,579 troops from 46 countries were unable to defeat Taliban what really makes those idiots think the 15,000 american troops after 2014 will defeat Taliban? Well we need a strategy to utilise our huge fighting force of Afghan Taliban in an effective way.
Less foreign troops in Afghanistan means less pressure on Afghan Taliban,so less Taliban will be be required to counter those american and Indian scums over there.The free or surplus Taliban force should be used for liberating Kashmir and slaughtering Hindus over there as well as for crushing TTP presence in Afghanistan.The upcoming situation is favourable is a night mare for hindu bhartis who will be butchered in Afghanistan as well in Indian occupied Kashmir.
From the valleys of Kashmir to the hills and deserts of Afghanistan we will rule and no matter how long it takes we will drive out or kill every single invader in our region.Go to hell with your BSA #7 no one can stop us .ALLAH HU AKBAR

So much hate ...anyways ALLAH has been favouring Hindustan till now,where unlike Pakistan muslims don't get bombed everyday.....So STFU

 

[truthlover]

So much hate ...anyways ALLAH has been favouring Hindustan till now,where unlike Pakistan muslims don't get bombed everyday.....So STFU

It is obvious Allah is punishing them for not joining Pakistan,they don,t get bombed but raped, burnt live in their homes for instance Gujarat riots.Now they curse themselves they did not join Pakistan and instead chosen a Hindu extremist state for living .

 

[pakistani342]

@Admin, I think this thread should be un-stickied -- it is pretty much dead