Afghanistan losing interest in trade links with Pakistan

[HAIDER]

- I actually don't mind creating fences to disrupt militant movement.
- But I dont think you need fences when Mullah Mansoor openly select his lieutenants in Quetta, you just need police to go there and arrest him.
- Pakistan and Afghanistan must join hands to disrupt TTP

Petro dollars are working against the will of Afghan people.

 

[fitpOsitive]

Someone's been smoking the big dooby .. !!

Its not about being jealous. Overall these type of things do not add value to environment. India is doing things to undermine Pakistan, Pakistan is doing things to strengthen China and undermine India. So, over all, where South east asia heading to? That's the issue.
We all are buying weapons and killing our own children.

 

[Kaniska]

That will an agressive strategy. One needs to undertand that if we does that pushtoons must be in our side.


Well i aceept what you said about PDF but if you visit D*F*I then hatred about Pakistan, Islam, Prophet and Muslims are truly above all. Such pathetic Languages they are using is un belivable.

Bad people are there in every country...You will find any Pakistan people who says so many bad things abuot Hindus...If i can differentiate between them, why can not i expect the same from Pakistan people too....So friend...i love the rivalry bewteen India and Pakistan...I hope let us use our rivalry in our progress than just fighting and killing each other...That is my objective...

 

[Hamza913]

that would be the least of your problems .annexing Afghanistan means war with multiple countries or getting sanctioned crippling your economy to irrelevance .

I doubt anyone would really care. We might get slammed by the UN, but eventually people would stop caring.

 

[Spring Onion]

I think if you look at my post I have been advocating this as a lose-lose situation because I want Afghans to do commerce using Pakistan, Iran and all other routes that's a win-win situation.

But the knee-jerk reaction as you see from most of the PDF members is, NO we don't care about Afghan business, lets build fences

We cannot Include INDIA that is NOT in our interests while including India is in interests of Afghanistan so tell us what you will and are offering us to take this risk for you?

As far as our trader is concerned the illegal trade volume is much higher than legal one. I say Pakistan should take stern action against Pakistani traders for smuggling or selling good so Afghanistan illegally. if we can halt flour smuggling

 

[Salik]

The Iraqis caved in and acquiesced to the americans wayyyy more than the Pakistanis did yet they were still destroyed and annihilated. Extreme diplomacy did not stop them from destruction nor was it the REAL reason the americans were not able to invade or attack Pakistan but were limited to drone strikes. The rulers of america have an agenda that they will stick to till death. That agenda includes the destruction of Pakistan as well as other certain nations. Whoever they can destroy they will. Their actions in Iraq and Afghanistan are evidence of this. They don't care about world opinion and world pressure.

America went for non existant WMD in Iraq but presence of OBL in Pakistan was 100% sure. So they could destroy Pakistan and disarm her from nuclear weapons and nip it in the bud lest Pakistan develop ICBM and become bigger threat. But dealing with Musharraf was turning point that saved Pakistan and her nukes. However little bit more confidence and Pakistan could've remain neutral. So again better diplomacy can save you from any bad situation.

 

[BattleWolf]

I doubt anyone would really care. We might get slammed by the UN, but eventually people would stop caring.

U.S. ,Iran India who have direct investment in Afghanistan won't stay idle .

Getting sanctioned by the U.N. screws your economy to the stone ages . Pakistan can't support itself for 20-40+ years during that crisis.

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

that would be the least of your problems .annexing Afghanistan means war with multiple countries or getting sanctioned crippling your economy to irrelevance .

indians also said that Pakistan's would cripple itself out of existenceif it ever tried to become a nuclear weapons state. indians also said that Pakistan would not exist after December 1947.

Pakistan doesn't need to annex Afghanistan. They'll pretty much greatfully hand it over to us. That's why there are millions of them in Pakistan with millions more wanting to come in every year.

 

[Abingdonboy]

EXACTLY........ Pakistan has an economic gem and catalyst called CPEC that no other nation on earth has and that could potentially propel the whole of Pakistan to world class economic standards of GCC nations and Singapore and some here on PDF are worried about meningless tokenism with improving ties with Afghanistan and/or india. Since the day Pakistan was created we have survived and prospered without these nations why change that now. The logic of some is highly disturbing.

Don't make a fool of yourself brother, saying things like "Pakistan has an economic gem and catalyst called CPEC that no other nation on earth has and that could potentially propel the whole of Pakistan to world class economic standards of GCC nations and Singapore " is just setting yourself up for epic failure. You think transforming a nation as vast and complicated as Pakistan into Singapore for as little as $46BN (a relatively minimal amount compared to most mega infrastructure projects) is doable? There are no "silver bullets"- if there were everyone would be Singapore by now. Not even a $460bn investment would make that kind of difference.

@Syed.Ali.Haider @Nilgiri @MilSpec

 

[Nilgiri]

Don't make a fool of yourself brother, saying things like "Pakistan has an economic gem and catalyst called CPEC that no other nation on earth has and that could potentially propel the whole of Pakistan to world class economic standards of GCC nations and Singapore " is just setting yourself up for epic failure. You think transforming a nation as vast and complicated as Pakistan into Singapore for as little as $46BN (a relatively minimal amount compared to most mega infrastructure projects) is doable? There are no "silver bullets"- if there were everyone would be Singapore by now. Not even a $460bn investment would make that kind of difference.

@Syed.Ali.Haider @Nilgiri @MilSpec

@Syed.Ali.Haider is one of the few Pakistanis that seems to genuinely understand the problem with gaining investment via the loan route (instead of FDI which remains depressed in Pakistan). The interest costs themselves are going to be pretty phenomenal.

Its now becoming quite clear to me from the answer dodging in other threads (w.r.t FDI vs loan route for CPEC) the purpose of having this project focused on MOU style agreements. China is basically checking the return efficiency of greenfield projects in Pakistan. It does not want to create another white elephant for itself (it has plenty within its own economy), nor does it want a massive financial crisis for its strategic ally Pakistan.

Thats why CPEC will not be the golden egg goose.

Comparing with the Asian tigers like Singapore is just ridiculous. That requires a level of human capital quality and consistency coupled with efficienct long term administration that Pakistan has never had and wont have for a very very long time (definitely well past the CPEC timeframe).

You just need to go the UNESCO database and check how many pakistani primary school kids make it to the last grade, and the same figures for high school too. I thought India was pretty bad, but Pakistan is absolutely shocking.

Thats the sort of thing that will need to be fixed....otherwise overinvestment will just create a diabetic chain (the economy cannot tolerate the excess "sugar" since it has not fleshed out its human capital issues (body mass, insulin balance)). In the end thats a bubble that will need to be suppressed for a long time (creating massive economic rents and trade offs due to the opportunity cost of improving say education with the same amount of money)...or it will explode and that will be really bad too.

 

[Abingdonboy]

@Syed.Ali.Haider is one of the few Pakistanis that seems to genuinely understand the problem with gaining investment via the loan route (instead of FDI which remains depressed in Pakistan). The interest costs themselves are going to be pretty phenomenal.

Right. CPEC was already very ambitious but with the extra burden of being funded by ENOURMOUSLY high interest rates (7-30%) it seems like CPEC is doomed to fail or at the very least become a considerable source of long term pain for the next generation of Pakistani taxpayers.

+ @AugenBlick had told me in another thread that the Pakistani side had assured the Chinese banks of 18% ROI the Chinese are clearly out to make a quick buck, they have absurdly large reserves and could offer their strategic partner some very favourable "mate's" rates . Look at what JICA are offereing the IR for the HSR (0.1% interest rate with a payback period spread over 50 years and nothing to pay back for the first 15 years); I don't want to descend this into an Ind vs Pak thread but this is just the first example that comes to mind.

And then on top of that Pakistan has provided sovereign guarentees to the Chinese for the repayment of these loans? It seems to me Pakistan is assuming all of he risk for little of the reward- one way or another China is going to get a great deal (they have either bought an entire nation for the measly sum of $46bn or they get a very beneficial link to the CAR and Arabian Sea for their exports). The Chinese are unbelivebly crafty and leave me in awe frankly.

Its now becoming quite clear to me from the answer dodging in other threads (w.r.t FDI vs loan route for CPEC)

I don't think many Pakistanis on here understand this as the "record high FDI" thread highlighted. A lot still are saying that the $46BN will show up in the FDI at some point in the next few years (if that was te case it should already have inflated the $900mn FDI figure well beyond that level).

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

Don't make a fool of yourself brother, saying things like "Pakistan has an economic gem and catalyst called CPEC that no other nation on earth has and that could potentially propel the whole of Pakistan to world class economic standards of GCC nations and Singapore " is just setting yourself up for epic failure. You think transforming a nation as vast and complicated as Pakistan into Singapore for as little as $46BN (a relatively minimal amount compared to most mega infrastructure projects) is doable? There are no "silver bullets"- if there were everyone would be Singapore by now. Not even a $460bn investment would make that kind of difference.

@Syed.Ali.Haider @Nilgiri @MilSpec

Indians were calling us Pakistanis "fools" when we claimed that Pakistan had a nuclear weapons program. We all know the outcome of that one.

The $46 billion input is the INITIAL investment for CPEC. That is the CATALYST that will give the Pakistan economy the kick start it so badly needs. CPEC is an indefinite project that will last many decades and have much more investment come in from China. It will pervade all aspects of the Pakistan economy for many years to come

Regardlesss of however succesful or not CPEC is, 2 things are definitely certain. The Pakistani economy and energy needs will be MUCH MUCH better off after the 1st phase of CPEC than it currently is. Weather Pakistan can reach the level of GCC countries or Singapore will take decades to find out.

indian doubts and criticisms of CPEC are null and void. Meaningless and irrelevent. They are just as ridiculous and absurd as vehement indian claims pre May 1998 that Pakistan could never ever become a nuclear weapons state with or without Chinese assistance. That it was absolutely impossible for Pakistan to do so no matter what. Pakistan had a 0 nuke capability. That many other fairly advanced nations with massive assistance from america and russia could not manage it so how could Pakistan? But we did. Just as then. So is now. Just as we did with our nuclear weapons program we shall do with CPEC. We will shine and overcome. Even if the whole world doubts us and may be against us.

 

[Abingdonboy]

We will shine and overcome.

Well good luck to you, I respect the optimism and spirit even if I doubt viability of CPEC.

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

indians are sissies who thinks that we also behave like them.

Lol......the indians can never ever understand Pakistani people. They are just too different to us in every way.

Well good luck to you, I respect the optimism and spirit even if I doubt viability of CPEC.

Just like all you indians doubted that Pakistan would ever become a nuclear weapons state.

 

[Nilgiri]

Right. CPEC was already very ambitious but with the extra burden of being funded by ENOURMOUSLY high interest rates (7-30%) it seems like CPEC is doomed to fail or at the very least become a considerable source of long term pain for the next generation of Pakistani taxpayers.

Its a pretty dicey situation. Pakistan needs something to believe in. China needs to keep the long term strategy alive and hedge on all the options (there are chances the CPEC will be financially viable... who knows for sure). China has gambled a lot more (100's of billions of dollars) on parts of its own internal economy...so 46 billion (mostly loan) with a nonzero annuity return rate and more importantly the positive propaganda (its how the Chinese really succeed in large parts of the developing world) is really a piece of cake for them since externalisation of their buffer margins actually is more profitable for them (theoretically speaking) given the overinvestment climate in China right now.

I don't envy the pakistani taxpayer at all, given that he/she is a rare breed to begin with.

@AugenBlick had told me in another thread that the Pakistani side had assured the Chinese banks of 18% ROI the Chinese are clearly out to make a quick buck, they have absurdly large reserves and could offer their strategic partner some very favourable "mate's" rates . Look at what JICA are offereing the IR for the HSR (0.1% interest rate with a payback period spread over 50 years and nothing to pay back for the first 15 years); I don't want to descend this into an Ind vs Pak thread but this is just the first example that comes to mind.

Im sure China will be open to renegotiating the interest rates...most probably by extending the timeframe and mitigating the yearly rates. A lot depends on what China's own financial situation is at that point. I don't think its easy to project that at this point in time.

JICA can do what it does because of a few fundamental reasons which I will cover in that thread (of the analysis someone did) I'll tag you there.

But what matters more than paying back the loan is the actual transfer efficiency to the Pakistani economy (since that in itself will be the main conduit to paying back the loan...i.e how much of the loan "catches" efficiently". Building a capacity is one thing, utilising and exploiting it efficiently is another thing.

I mean one can effectively put a bench/squat machine in the basement and load it with massive weights. Being able to bench and squat those weights and grow long term muscle is another thing all together. Was that investment worth it, or was your body better served at this point in time by sticking to lighter dumbells and doing more cardio/diet planning first. Thats the basic crux of the issue in my opinion.

And then on top of that Pakistan has provided sovereign guarentees to the Chinese for the repayment of these loans? It seems to me Pakistan is assuming all of he risk for little of the reward- one way or another China is going to get a great deal (they have either bought an entire nation for the measly sum of $46bn or they get a very beneficial link to the CAR and Arabian Sea for their exports). The Chinese are unbelivebly crafty and leave me in awe frankly.

What exactly has Pakistan guaranteed? If its set in stone and the Chinese mean to enforce it long term, that definitely does spell doom like you say.

If its more pliable (or ends up having to be for both sides sake), then there may be more respite for its long term viability (and it will have to be really long term).

As it stands and assuming 100% enforcement of such terms, it does not bode well for Pakistan.

I don't think many Pakistanis on here understand this as the "record high FDI" thread highlighted. A lot still are saying that the $46BN will show up in the FDI at some point in the next few years (if that was te case it should already have inflated the $900mn FDI figure well beyond that level).

Well such projects should ramp up organically (if FDI). I have not seen that happen (its pretty flat). But people have been posting pictures of the work going on, so that means it must be through a loan instrument of some kind thus far (and thats what will probably continue). I was talking about it with @Sky lord on a thread. FDI is much more preferable because the source internalises the risk (and is thus incentivised to make the long term returns/financials work).

 

[Abingdonboy]

Just like all you indians doubted that Pakistan would ever become a nuclear weapons state.

Well the challenge that presents Pakistan today is far greater than developing "the bomb".