PakBrother mine,
Accurate sketch of the
unfolding in Pajshir.. it was a farce by the
Spoilers through their
Frontmen Masood Jr. and the
old RAW operative Saleh who was recruited by RAW in Tajikstan in the 90s. The rest we know.
To think that the EIA didn't know what form of government they wanted would be lack of understanding or rather being naive... Orientalism blinds the WesternThought.
The day Americans wanted to talk to them... till this annoucement of today the Talibs knew very well what they needed to do.
Frankly, the brilliant strategy of dragging the 'Negotiations' suited both the Americans and the Talibs... for their own agendas.
In a way the
AmericanConfusion gave the Talibs ample time to lay the groundwork of the
Reconquest of Aghanistan.... in a way if you look closely...
Durranis come to mind...
Abdali... tactics.
@PanzerKiel @Blacklight @RescueRanger @Signalian @HRK @Arsalan
We can see the proof of the above in the '
blitzkrieg' of
'conquering' Afghanistan in 9 Plus 2 Days...
The Fall of Kabul and the
Escape of that vulgar Ghani validates this hypothesis.
One seneses that the Talibs somehow had in their
Wargaming that
Panjshir would become a problem... hence,
instead of Forcing Conquest into the famed valley... the Talibs let the 'Resistence' to play its hand first...
Appointing a
Tajik to lead the
Crushing the Rebellion Campaign was a masterstroke... now the same person is head of the-to-be Afghan Army.
It can be argued that the letting Saleh's escape to Tajikstan was a mistake same as with Ghani.... because it will be permanent nusance for the new government... imagine all those interviews and tweets...
Besides Saleh was/is a goldmine of Indian and her Masters Operations within Aghanistan, Iran, China, Russia and Pakistan. Therefore, a Strategic Mistake.
True that one is not at the ground or privy to the deals that the Talibs have done... but it still appears to be a mistake.
The SCO needs Afghanistan to be completely plugged i.e. no leakage towards any of the Stans, Iran, China and of course, Pakistan.
Therefore, the Talibs know that they have a Leverage, perhaps, The Leverage.
This is reflected in their choices of the interim cabinet. The EIA will expoilt it further. Since, a CivilWar in Afghanistan doesn't suit its neighbours unlike last time.
This brings us to the
Spoilers and their on-the-ground-assets. This is something that can and will create headlines in the Western press and AsocialMedia.
What can the West concretely do:
Statements?
Sanctions?
Travel bans?
By not Killing their opponents the Talibs have created a Strategic Space for themselves for the Future!
Example is Panjshir.
Even after conquering it... still the same
Message/Style/Operation ... of Pardon for those who lay down their arms.
If seen closely the
World and
Neighbours have an
AfghanistanProblem...
Talibans Do Not have the World as Problem. This plays to their advantage.
Indeed, today's
AuratMarch was quite interesting.. a few fashionably clad ladies with designer glasses and bags... got the needed 'Headlines/Soundbites' and Tweets...
One can say with some certainty that the ladies were from the 'upper-class' or from those who benefited from
20yrs long Bonanza of FreeDollars...
Will it turn int to '
ColourRevolution' or
KabuliSpring:
It depends.. what do the neighbours want... because running such an operation from Twitter is not gonna fly.
That said we do have
ready-for-rent KhooniLibers,
PTM and
for-hire-MarassiMedia with foreign-paid 'jouranlists' in Pakistan to make some noises...
It is in
China's Critical National Interests that Xinjiang, CPEC/BRI and $400bln-25yrs Deal with Iran comes to fruition.
Hence, Afghanistan.
The Talibs have been making the right noises about CPEC/BRI... Frankly, they have no other choice than be a good neighbour... now that the
BazariKabulis have left the building. But they can play-hard-to-get as well.
By the looks of things EIA will adopt the
Abdali-Model of Inclusive Government after further consalidation of power or better-said further solidifying their state-apparatus like the Intelligence, Law, Police and Revenue...
One tends to believe that the
studied tolerance of the
AuratMarches will be allowed for a few more weeks... after the Offficialisation of EIA Interim Gov things will change.
Let us not forget the Talibs know who the
wanna-be-colour-revolutionaries are ...
ditto for the beautifully dressed ladies.
Now that does it means for us, Pakistan?
Of course, we need a friendly AfghanGov at most or neutral at least. The
SinoFactor favours the earlier.
To be honest I am rather ammazed at the
potatoz-for-brains ministers and their statements....
How difficult could it be to be
Quiet? Just work silently...
But then TeeVee and Pressers... the
Khottacracy can't live without it.
The Current policy of PakGov regarding Afghanistan is
stupid... to say the least.
Or is everyone Woke in PakGov or NationalSecurityEstablishment theses days?
OurPolicy should be:
We are closely monitoring the situation and urge all Afghans to find a Peaceful solution... for the Betterment of the AfghanPeople.
Pakistan stands with OurAfghanBrothers as they seek to Rebuild their Goverment and State...which has seen Nothing but Violence for past 40+yrs.
And repeat this statement ... but no... Rainbouw and Unicorns...
What is done is done... lamentation are useless in mortal affairs... only must be done infront of the Divine!
So, in short.. the
Stans want to use
our ports because its
faster and
cheaper for them. We can buy cheap cotton and gas from them... and also, we can capture the market space that is still not covered by China.
Of course, there remains a danger of
Panjshir 2.0 or such in other provinces... but EIA is now better equipped
Courtesy Da Americanz!
In all this process Pakistan got
NOTHING concrete in return from the
Great Escape from Kabulistan.
NOTHING.
A SoftState is shy of its own shadow... appologetic that it even exists... desperate for
pat-on-the-back and a few
Woke BrowniePoints.
But then
The Momentum of History is marching and
Pakistan cannot Escape the Acceleration!
Mangus
P.S. For now these countries want this from Afghanistan:
Russia:
- CTO Security and no export of terrorism to Russia's underbelly
- No-more drugs or heroin to Russia from Aghanistan
- Be the PipelineMonopoly from Stans to Pakistan/SouthAsia
- Create GasOPEC to counter OPEC
- With The Escape from Kabul of the Empire... Russian Influence and security... thus giving Russia more leverage in EU via gas
- If Ukraine becomes more anti-Russia.. Russia now can create the pretext for annexation of the Russian part of Ukraine ala Crimea
- Secure ME with the Exit of the Americans thus requiring ZERO problems in Stans... making it more free to act in Pacific against the Quad... please, remember those Islands which the Japanese lost in 2nd GreatWar
Iran:
- No refugees and return of those already in Iran
- No danger of inflitration of terror/spy agents from Afghanistan
- Protection of Shia
- Safety for its historic influence in Stans
- Trade (PakDollars are/were smuggled via QuettaCurrencyExchanges through Afghanistan to Iran at the cost of Dollar shortages in Pakistan)
- Culutral Influence and SCO membership
- With Aghanistan secured Iran's Influence in ME will explode after the US withdrawl from Iraq.. please, recall the ThirdActorDynamcis
China:
- ZeroSupport or refuge for the EmpireSponsored separatists from Afghanistan
- MegaDeals ala Iran i.e. monopoly on minning concessions
- Integeration of Afghanistan into SCO/SionEconomicSphere ...
- Shortest access to CaspianSea along with direct landroute to Turkiye through Iran, also, Syria and Iraq.
- More circulation in trade of Yuan in AfghanDeals
- With any danger to Xinjiang nullified China can be in more freedom-of-operation mode in the South/EastChinaSea... counter the Quad by applying more pressure on India on the LAC
- Move more agressively in the AfroAsianOcean and accelerate the CMEC along with those two Burmese ports
- Have the freedom to exert pressure on Indian in SevenSisters region and Bhutan/Sikkim
Pakistan:
- NO TTP or BLA/BLF or any terror-export/training/refuge for such elements from/in Afghanistan
- Acceptance of DuranLine as International Border
- Integeration of AfghanEconomy in Sino-PakEconomy
- Direct access to CentralAsia
- Expelling GangeticState/RAW from Afghan Chessboard and denying any direct land access through land... any/all trade must go through Pakistan
- Gradual return of AfghanRefugees from Pak
- In the long term creating a defacto confederation with Aghanistan... it is a long process
Turkiye:
- Going forward with its TurkicWorld Strategy in Stans and protecting Turkic people of Afghanistan to enhance its influence
- Using BRI as counter the growing Anti-Turkish policy regime in the MedSea and Mughrab/NorthAfrica
- Train/Land links to the Pakistani and ChineseMarket
- Raise its profile as the leader of the non-existent/so-called IslamicWorld
- Create more diplomatic leverage with Russia in TurkicWorld.. 2023 is around the corner
- Avoid the MassExodus of AghanRefugees and use it as leverage against EU
Now as long as these countries form a
StrategicAgreement of their
CoreInterests in Aghanistan there shall
NOT be any CivilWar in Aghanistan.
@SIPRA @Ace of Spades @StormBreaker