May be true time will tell. I know our borders get more secure everyday. The frustrated Jihad-e-Kashmir 2.0 agitators may again come home to roost. Like I said time will tell.
I don't know how much you're aware of internal Pakistani politics but today the 2 of the 3 frontline parties to win the May 2013 General Elections are
Pakistan Muslim League (N) and
Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf. Both are Fiscal Conservative parties or I should say rather just Conservative parties.
Both parties are heavily nationalistic enjoying wide public support, while Pakistan Muslim League (N) in addition also enjoys wide backing of various religious parties and a huge number of Islamic movements throughout the country. They're more like the soft version of Islamic Brotherhood of North Africa.
Now, it was the Pakistan Muslim League (N)'s leader Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in the 1990s who
recognised the Taliban Government in Afghanistan, heavily backed the Kashmir Freedom Struggle against India, conducted nuclear tests and also unde his tenure the Kargil Conflict occurred.
What I am trying to say is that as Afghanistan is most likely to be taken over the Taliban, Pakistan for obvious reasons is going to be lead by a political party who can also talk and recognise the Taliban, therefore, Pakistan Muslim League (N) is most likely to win more seats than any other party.
Separately, I'm not sure if many people understand why America is most likely to support the Taliban. It's mainly because the Taliban respect and listen to Saudi Arabia and absolutely hate Iran. Any anti-Iranian government in Afghanistan is in West's interest according to their perverted worldview. Therefore in order to give some legitimacy to Taliban, Pakistani support for them is very crucial. You can probably sense where this is heading to.
Today, West is slowly removing India from the Afghan picture as they no longer need them while Pakistan is being allowed a free hand in Afghanistan. Once the likes of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) see these two countries as being ruled by Muslim governments, their policy will automatically change. On one hand, they'll be too busy trying to overthrow the Afghan government along with the Taliban in their newfound Jihad and at the same time they'll be catapulted into Indian Occupied kashmir to keep the Indian Army checked there while Afghanistan goes through a cleansing.
Here's what you already know and what you're going to see more of.
During 2013, you're going to hear of isolated incidents in the Indian Occupied Kashmir where on average, one Indian soldier is killed each month - blamed on Pakistan backed fighters or Pakistan soldiers. This way, the Kashmiri Struggle will slowly be re-introduced to the Indians (this is already happening). Of course, Pakistan don't want to cause panic in India as 80,000 Pakistani soldiers are currently manning the Afghan border when should be in Kashmir so the war machine will take couple of years to warm up.
Then during 2014, the pace of soldier being killed in the Indian Occupied Kashmir is going to pick up with an average of at least one Indian soldier getting killed each week instead of the current rate of one per month. Finally, come 2015 and beyond the Kashmir Uprising will most probably be in full swing.
This is what the retired Pakistani military men and analysts have been predicting for the last couple of years and unbelievably this is how things appear to be unfolding.
I could be wrong. Allahu Alam.