Afghan Government Could Collapse 6 Months After U.S. Withdrawal: US Intelligence

[Dalit]

5 days is enough. Ghani and his cronies don't stand a chance. ANAL force of Afghanistan would join Taliban ranks without a fight.

 

[Rafi]

If Pakistan can for the talibs to sit down with the US, then they can do so again with Ghani.

Again, we do not control the taliba.

 

[That Guy]

Again, we do not control the taliba.

When did I say control? It's pressure, and influence, those are very different things. If Pakistan can pressure the talibs to sit down with the US, then they can do the same now with the Afghan government.

 

[Rafi]

When did I say control? It's pressure, and influence, those are very different things. If Pakistan can pressure the talibs to sit down with the US, then they can do the same now with the Afghan government.

Now that they control vast areas in a stan our influence is wanning, the stupid afghan govt should have hammered out a deal before the US pullout, now it is too late, the situation on the battlefield has changed drastically

 

[Globenim]

Taliban can not produce weapons. Is it too difficult to cut their arm smuggle lines? Who are selling weapons to Taliban?

Funny anecdote. A lot of Chinese arms sent to Palestine and later on seized by Israelis and Americans where shipped to Afghanistan by Americans to arm locals to fight against Soviets/Russia in the old days.

 

[Adecypher]

Due to impending human crises … a plan is to bring “peace keeping” force of UN …

Start watching from 4:40 mins (related to Afghanistan):

Hi to ALL the guests on this thread …

 

[ziaulislam]

Taliban can not produce weapons. Is it too difficult to cut their arm smuggle lines? Who are selling weapons to Taliban?

taliban and pushtoon have built weapons in the past but thats not needed, market is flooded with russians and chinese weapons..flooded i mean

 

[That Guy]

Now that they control vast areas in a stan our influence is wanning, the stupid afghan govt should have hammered out a deal before the US pullout, now it is too late, the situation on the battlefield has changed drastically

It's not too late yet. The problem is, if the taliban do end up taking Kabul, and the rest of the cities, they themselves will end up facing an insurgency from anti-taliban groups. The taliban know this, they faced this prospect in the past, before 9/11. There is a reason why Mullah Omar offered Ahmed Shah Massood the post of Prime Minister, and a general pardon for the rest of his group, if they surrendered.

If the Taliban take the country by force, war will continue, and the situation will actually get worse for everyone involved. Pakistan should force the issue if it has to.

 

[Rafi]

It's not too late yet. The problem is, if the taliban do end up taking Kabul, and the rest of the countries, they themselves will end up facing an insurgency from anti-taliban groups. The taliban know this, they faced this prospect in the past, before 9/11. There is a reason why Mullah Omar offered Ahmed Shah Massood the post of Prime Minister, and a general pardon for the rest of his group, if they surrendered.

If the Taliban take the country by force, war will continue, and the situation will actually get worse for everyone involved. Pakistan should force the issue if it has to.

I understand what you are saying, but what can we do when a superpower has given up.

 

[Prince Kassad]

if terrorists like ISIS AND TALIBAN took over afghan do not think it will be nice and peaceful for pakistan .

then allow US Airbases in Pakistan, win win for all

 

[jk007]

And it wasn't even that the US didn't have multiple chances to turn this into a success. Their own infighting and incompetence led to this. Biden is doing the right thing by withdrawing, decades of stupid decisions cannot be fixed, unless the US wants to spend another 20 years in Afghanistan.

As for the taliban returning to power, anyone who knows about history knows that the taliban are fixed on taking Pakistani territory. This is why they have never recognized the Durand line, and still actively support the ttp.

Mark my words, the taliban will one day turn their guns towards Pakistan.

@PanzerKiel + other experts

Actually, if Taliban agressively pursues the idea of Pakhtunistan, what will be the response of Pakistan? Go to war with afghanistan (that is headed by taliban)? If taliban does not face pressure from northern alliance (does it still exist?), then they will be more inclined to pursue pakhtunistan?? do you agree??

If it comes to that, then what did pak achieve by double dealing for the past 20 years? They end-up with 2 hot borders which they desperately want to avoid?

But I have to give it to Pak Army for playing such large games (that are very difficult to predict the way they turn).

Does Pak Army has capacity (& money) to face large scale insurgency? Already, I read somewhere that there is some unhappiness among pashtuns.

Not trolling.

 

[PakFactor]

Even Lindsey Graham made this most exact assessment on National television years ago. He says 12 months, but 6 months seems more likely. it’s not so much the Talibs will take over but the government will breakdown and only exist in name only. The six ANA corps were all based on different ethnicities. The government never really got over the ethnic difference and integrated. Nation building never really succeeded and hence the facade was bound to fail when pressed hard enough.

This Potemkin village wasn’t built to last

3:03

The American psyche is not built for long term rational thinking outside the use of force. The Europeans and Americans have always relied on brute force to drive their point, they faced a wall and all they could do was bomb away. They faced a dilemma:

How you fight someone who loves death, more than you love live? You can kill them all but morally you’ve not won the war as honorable men. That is the dilemma they’ve been trying to solve and can’t figure out.

So their own stupidity left them in a state they are in at the moment.

 

[jk007]

then allow US Airbases in Pakistan, win win for all

If US really is so desperate for a base in Pak, why not keep running an existing base in afghanistan instead?
It is not a good proposition to give air support for ANA without knowing the true allegiance of each ANA soldier calling air support.

Basically, I am questioning what interest does USA have in maintaining a large base? Just to give air support to ANA, that may / may not fight and just prefer surrendering.

 

[PakFactor]

@PanzerKiel + other experts

Actually, if Taliban agressively pursues the idea of Pakhtunistan, what will be the response of Pakistan? Go to war with afghanistan (that is headed by taliban)? If taliban does not face pressure from northern alliance (does it still exist?), then they will be more inclined to pursue pakhtunistan?? do you agree??

If it comes to that, then what did pak achieve by double dealing for the past 20 years? They end-up with 2 hot borders which they desperately want to avoid?

But I have to give it to Pak Army for playing such large games (that are very difficult to predict the way they turn).

Does Pak Army has capacity (& money) to face large scale insurgency? Already, I read somewhere that there is some unhappiness among pashtuns.

Not trolling.

To put it simply Pakistani Pashtun are very loyal to Pakistan the insurgency we faced was from a fringe group TTP and we’ve resolved that issue. When we did our operation the locals were armed and fought along side Pak Forces. The area is now more integrated with Pak Economy than before which was one of the main grievances we resolved. So what you read is wrong, as even in India there are groups who aren’t happy, but it doesn’t mean the whole tribe is like that.

Pak will play its game — we don’t fear a hot border, as it’s an overreaction by even some Pakistanis here.

The issue is finding those sleeper cells due to Musharraf beghart and other begharts after him for issuing visas and letting Western individuals roam free who need to be found ASAP and assassinated without any due process and clean up the mess.

If US really is so desperate for a base in Pak, why not keep running an existing base in afghanistan instead?
It is not a good proposition to give air support for ANA without knowing the true allegiance of each ANA soldier calling air support.

Basically, I am questioning what interest does USA have in maintaining a large base? Just to give air support to ANA, that may / may not fight and just prefer surrendering.

Read my post above about American Psyche, right now they are playing catch up to China, Russia & Co., they want a base like they had in Pak during Cold War which was a mistake and made it’s a nuclear target from Russia and to think the US would somehow respond in defense. However it’s not feasible as we are allied to China.

Even for India it’ll be a stupid move to offer a base why make your homeland be under Chinese scope — those who have a real issue the US let them fight it out on there own and take the brunt on land, sea and air.

The problem I have with Asians in general living there and all, you all are willing to open your legs without realizing the danger you put yourselves into for a fight that doesn’t strategically concern you and that to on behalf of a country 12,000 miles away.

 

[PanzerKiel]

@PanzerKiel + other experts

Does Pak Army has capacity (& money) to face large scale insurgency?

We've been dealing with such things since early 60s till early 90s... And then for the last two decades as well... Even having a superpower as a neighbor for a decade.... Capacity is not an issue.... And it's not just the capacity of the army, it's the capacity of our whole nation which has been built up over decades, which no power had been able to break yet.