pakdefender
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india will provide HAL Dhurv to bring the other 43% back in the control of kabuli government
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It's great news for Pakistan. If the government in Kabul collapses then either good Taliban will take over or there will be fragmentation and Pakistan will control one faction or another. Either way you will get the "strategic depth" that Pakistan craves for.I don't think thats good news.
Latest on the halat of Afghani govindia will provide HAL Dhurv to bring the other 43% back in the control of kabuli government
It's great news for Pakistan. If the government in Kabul collapses then either good Taliban will take over or there will be fragmentation and Pakistan will control one faction or another. Either way you will get the "strategic depth" that Pakistan craves for.
However, Western aid and cooperation will also stop and I don't see how it will improve internal security in Pakistan.
No in either case its not a good news for Pakistan. Its not 90s anymore. Pakistan hardly has any control on Afghan Talibans like it used to had once. Best way is to remain neutral with both Afghan Govt and the Afghan Talibans. Unfortunately the situation also depicts that Afghanistan is such a heaven for militants group like TTP, ISIS where they can easily operate at both sides of the border since as Afghan Talibans and Afghan Govt are keeping their concentration against each other only thus providing them space to operate at will.
I seriously wish decision-makers were as wise and considerate as you are. And I say this in all sincerity. Unfortunately, the internal situation of Afghanistan has been used as leverage and means of playing strategic games. No one bothered to think for a second about what you have written.
If you have been around on PDF for long, I am sure you have noticed the cognitive dissonance wherein so many members cheer on the difficulties and demise of the government in Kabul, all because they see them as agents of US/India and therefore inconvenient to Pakistan. No one thinks about supporting them as in their absence, the entire militant apparatus in Afghanistan will spin out of control. Pakistan has suffered already due to this and still, every time these terror attacks happen, there is more blame for the same government that Pakistanis have worked so hard to undermine for so long.
Best way for everyone is to negotiate and reconcile with Talibans but the million dollar question is, what does Afghan Talibans really wants
Yes, that question still remains doesn't it? What will they negotiate for? It is really one of those situations where pragmatism will have to prevail and idealism will take a back seat. If it was possible, then eradicating the Taliban would be in everyone's best interest and also the right thing to do. Who wants a barbaric bunch who oppress people in the name of Sharia staking claim to territory?
Unfortunately, the only country close enough with the capability is Pakistan, and as you rightly said you have your own priorities. So as repulsive as the concept of negotiating with the Taliban is, I think it is unavoidable.
You cannot eradicate Talibans completely but can contain them. Afghanis are living like this since ever. That's their way of life. We like it or not.
Bringing Talibans to table is in interest of everyone. Pakistan should make sure that we keep pushing them for talks and let them know that we wont be backing you even if you govern Kabul after US with drawl. Same signal was provided to them in the form of Operation Zarb-e-Azb. Meantime, US and others should provide some space to the talibans as well and some sort of agreement regarding power sharing is the way moving forward. India on the other hand, shouldn't corrupt Kabul regime minds regarding 'no' talks. If you observe carefully that's what India is doing actually. Else I don't think there is a solution to Afghan peace other than this.
If India wants to save her investment in Afghanistan, only solution is deployment of Indian army in Afghanistan.It's great news for Pakistan. If the government in Kabul collapses then either good Taliban will take over or there will be fragmentation and Pakistan will control one faction or another. Either way you will get the "strategic depth" that Pakistan craves for.
However, Western aid and cooperation will also stop and I don't see how it will improve internal security in Pakistan.
57% territory controlled by Afghan govt with 50% margin of error in this assessment.
Agreed. Talks are the only way forward as military solution is out of reach. However, the way I see it, engagement with Taliban can be in the form of:
Option A: Accommodation into a coalition government with certain ministries and maybe autonomous control of some territory/province.
Option B: total control over religious issues only.
Option C: de-facto division of the country with Taliban retaining control over their own territory.
Then there is the issue of the opium/heroine trade. Whether they want to actually shut it down or not. It is a huge issue there.
I think Option C would be the most preferable. Option A also sounds okay but I don't think it will work.