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Icecold:

On Kashmir, how could India secure its position? I would suggest that it would do so in two ways:

1. Militarily, by crushing the militancy, cracking down on separatism and "forcing local cooperation", by convincing the local population that there was no possibility of a militant or political campaign for freedom being successful.

In this situation I would argue that India would only secure its position temporarily, since resentment in the local population would continue to simmer, and in the long run would be detrimental to the region being integrated into India. But the population could also decide that generations of conflict were not worthwhile - in either case it is the Kashmiris who are making the decision to accept or reject (overtly or covertly) India's sovereignty over them.

Already such a thing is in place. The Ballot over the Bullet! And it is working.

It may not be palatable or acceptable to Pakistanis, but then more than half my life I have been in Kashmir and I can say that the Kashmiris per se are the most non violent people of India or Pakistan. They are basically Sufis and actually they couldn't care less what is happening so long as they are left alone to their ways. And their ways is accepting the think with the thin. At the same time, I will state that with this pan Islamic wave that has seized the world, they are also changing, more so with the influx of the Afghan terrorists coming within their midst. Yet, the Kashmiryat still rules supreme!

There are personalities jockeying for power amongst themselves and the issue of ambition amongst homo sapiens overpower them in the same way it does in Balochistan and elsewhere. They fan the embers and helped by the new awakening of pan Islamic world, it seizes the popular imagination and the TV helps!

Nothing will change. The status quo will reign supreme.


2. By employing both military, political and economic measures, India attempts to both crush the militancy militarily, and try and "win hearts and minds" by offering the Kashmiris the possibility of a prosperous life as part of India.

I would argue that the latter approach is the one being attempted by India, and here too the Kashmiris are free to accept or reject the "proposal" being advanced.

Again a popular misconception. If the military was indeed released, then there would be carnage and things would have been different. In fact, the it is the military which is organising the development of the villages, the govt officials being the most corrupt! For village development, the Kashmiris come to the Army and not the bureaucracy!

It is only during the Governorship of Mr Jagmohan that Kashmir bureaucracy was shaken up to deliver, but then the bureaucracy won and Jagmohan had to go!

There are about 15 families of Kashmir who actually decide the fate of Kashmir!

The only thing Pakistan can do, in either of the two cases, even in the absence of the Baluchistan insurgency and the violence in FATA, is to militarily wrest control of the territory from India. That would result in a stalemate as history has shown.

You are a civilian and so you won't understand that it is impossible for India or Pakistan to "wrest" anything. The terrain is formidable and impossible for such day dreams.

I would argue that the best option available to Pakistan is to take advantage of the fact that we do not have to deal with militancy in Azad Kashmir, and invest in the economy and development of the region as much as possible, while also encouraging exchanges between the IK and AK.

A better idea.

I have seen Olthingthang in Pakistan's Norther Territories. They don't even have electricity! They are opposite Kargil and Kargil has all the facilities! I agree that on either side they are Shias, but unless Pakistan gets its act together, it will be difficult to convince!


The ROZ's will provide a much needed boost to the AK economy, as will the investments being made in infrastructure and development of Hydel resources. Last year there was a article on the enthusiasm of the traders from IK being able to utilize the potential of ROZ's in PK - I think that in the long run, economic prosperity and development in AK, observable first hand by Kashmiris from IK, is how we retain a "solid grip" on the hearts and minds of Kashmiris - at the very least the Kashmiris in PK
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What is ROZ?
 
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Hi agno

I would like to ask you one thing, now that itsbeen nearly 50 years since both AK and Ik were seperated from each other, dont you think there is bound to be huge difference in their identity and way of life as similar to the difference between Indian Tamils and Srilankan Tamil, frankly we consider them to be different. In light of your post dont you think that moment we both nations giveup kashmir issue the freedom struggle in by itsef die down and slowly Ak will be assimilated into mainstream pakistan and Ik will be slowly assimilated into india, just my 2 cents

cheers

I am not certain about ancient history, but in recent history at least the Kashmir and Tamil issues are not necessarily comparable because Kashmir is in the forefront of Pakistan and India's animosity - Kashmiris did not just "populate" two different countries, they were torn apart in a territorial dispute between India and Pakistan.

The argument could be made that given enough time the people on both sides would settle into acceptance, but the process could be much faster if the territorial dispute is resolved by India and Pakistan - otherwise, unlike Srilanka and Tamil Nadu, Kashmir will forever be referred to as disputed territory, and be shown as disputed territory by the majority of the world.
 
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Salim, I am not certain whether you misunderstood my post or simply critiqued for he sake of critiquing, since the majority of the points you made are reinstating what I said, and the rest is taken out of context.

I'll attempt to clarify.

Already such a thing is in place. The Ballot over the Bullet! And it is working.

It may not be palatable or acceptable to Pakistanis, but then more than half my life I have been in Kashmir and I can say that the Kashmiris per se are the most non violent people of India or Pakistan. They are basically Sufis and actually they couldn't care less what is happening so long as they are left alone to their ways. And their ways is accepting the think with the thin. At the same time, I will state that with this pan Islamic wave that has seized the world, they are also changing, more so with the influx of the Afghan terrorists coming within their midst. Yet, the Kashmiryat still rules supreme!

There are personalities jockeying for power amongst themselves and the issue of ambition amongst homo sapiens overpower them in the same way it does in Balochistan and elsewhere. They fan the embers and helped by the new awakening of pan Islamic world, it seizes the popular imagination and the TV helps!

Nothing will change. The status quo will reign supreme.

Your first line seems to be agreeing with this particular approach of India, of essentially beating the Kashmiris into submission militarily. I on the other hand suggested that India's approach was more akin to the second one I mentioned, which you seem to disagree with, calling it a "misconception". So perhaps you should clear this muddle up...
Again a popular misconception. If the military was indeed released, then there would be carnage and things would have been different. In fact, the it is the military which is organising the development of the villages, the govt officials being the most corrupt! For village development, the Kashmiris come to the Army and not the bureaucracy!

It is only during the Governorship of Mr Jagmohan that Kashmir bureaucracy was shaken up to deliver, but then the bureaucracy won and Jagmohan had to go!

There are about 15 families of Kashmir who actually decide the fate of Kashmir!

A misconception? You are disagreeing with the presence of 500,000 Indian Security Forces in IK? What does that represent to you, if not a "military measure". Whether the military itself is undertaking the "development measures" or the Central Government through the Kashmiri administration, my point was that military, political and economic measures are being undertaken by India to deal with the situation. Why you consider this a "misconception", I am not sure.
You are a civilian and so you won't understand that it is impossible for India or Pakistan to "wrest" anything. The terrain is formidable and impossible for such day dreams.

What are you on about here Salim? Did you miss this extremely pertinent line in my post?
"That would result in a stalemate as history has shown."

What does that indicate to you, of my views? I would say that it indicates quite clearly that I do not see a military "wresting of control" as being feasible.
A better idea.

Of course, I shot down the earlier one myself, which you apparently missed.
I have seen Olthingthang in Pakistan's Norther Territories. They don't even have electricity! They are opposite Kargil and Kargil has all the facilities! I agree that on either side they are Shias, but unless Pakistan gets its act together, it will be difficult to convince!
Many developing nations have regions that are left behind. Unfortunately Zia's legacy has meant that particular region has lagged much farther behind than it should. But Musharraf started making amends by passing the NA bill last year, that allowed for greater autonomy in utilizing funds and Judicial Access.

Much work remains to be done, however the precedent set by Musharraf, and the majority won by the PPP (a party that understands the grievances of the NA, and won overwhelmingly there) should bode well for continued development - political and economic.
What is ROZ?

The Reconstruction Opportunity Zones currently in front of Congress that would allow for Duty Free Access to the US market for a large number of products manufactured in Pakistan. The idea was originally floated as a way to allow the area to recover from the Earthquake, now it is apparently being extended to the FATA, as well.

Allow me to put the earlier post in context further. It was a response to Icecold suggesting that India was "securing its position in Kashmir", while we struggled with violence allegedly sponsored by India.

My argument was that regardless of which approach India used in Kashmir, beating them into submission or using a mix of military, political and economic measures, the Kashmiris were themselves the final arbiters of whether they would accept Indian sovereignty or not, and in such a situation, the existence, or lack of, "sponsored violence" in Baluchistan and FATA made very little difference to what Pakistan could do to prevent this "securing of position", bar military intervention, which I then pointed out had failed in the past.

Therefore, the only option left for Pakistan was to continue development in AK, and link it with the rest of the country, even while maintaining the "cover" of Azad Kashmir, so that we can ensure we have the hearts and minds of Kashmiris.
 
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Am,

I never criticise your for the sake of criticism.

Your and Mastan's views are very important for me as is of Neo and Asif.

I would be the last one to believe that a people can be cowed down by force. Hearts and mind is what is the answer and I have always followed that. It may surprise you but I am on a first name basis with many 'dreaded militants'.

Love wins!

Spread Love!
 
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Am,

I never criticise your for the sake of criticism.

Your and Mastan's views are very important for me as is of Neo and Asif.

I would be the last one to believe that a people can be cowed down by force. Hearts and mind is what is the answer and I have always followed that. It may surprise you but I am on a first name basis with many 'dreaded militants'.

Love wins!

Spread Love!

Thank you Salim, and the feeling is mutual.

Since you brought up the Status quo, I'll mention that I do think that India and Pakistan should formalize it in some way and move on. Whether it is as two quasi autonomous regions within each nation that have special privileges when it comes to travel and trade between them, or any other solution.

The point being that the issue has to be resolved somehow, for the sake of the Kashmiris especially, so they can get out of this limbo, and for the other peoples of both nations.
 
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Leave Kashmir to resolve itself. Low key.

If not, then nothing will progress.
 
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