ADB revises growth rate for Pakistan to 5.2%

[farhan_9909]

I don't think there's gonna be 5% growth this time around as well. Brace for something around 4.2-4.5%

Raiwand march

 

[LA se Karachi]

I don't think there's gonna be 5% growth this time around as well. Brace for something around 4.2-4.5%

Interesting. That's the growth rate for this year as well. You don't think it will accelerate at all next year?

 

[SBD-3]

Interesting. That's the growth rate for this year as well. You don't think it will accelerate at all next year?

Headwinds are just too many, LSM has been constrained by the Textiles. Agriculture is already depressed amid low commodity prices. I am giving a very conservative estimate, growth can be somewhere 4.8% but 5% is optimistic for now.

 

[Green Ranger]

Sorry to say the only growth i see is in Punjab , all the Jobs advertisement being posted also are of Punjab , and its so sad to see that even govt jobs with min post requires experience of 2-3 years , the biggest problem in this country where can fresh get experience

 

[LA se Karachi]

Headwinds are just too many, LSM has been constrained by the Textiles. Agriculture is already depressed amid low commodity prices. I am giving a very conservative estimate, growth can be somewhere 4.8% but 5% is optimistic for now.

I see, 4.8% growth is more like what I was expecting. The growth rate stagnating at 4.2-4.5% next year would be a bit surprising to me, given the upward trend these past few years.

It's always good to get your opinion. But ya, I understand that agriculture in particular is holding economic growth back.

 

[That Guy]

Wow, if Pakistan's GDP growth rate hits 5% as early as next year, that would be amazing.

Everything seems to be moving in the right direction for Pakistan economically. It successfully completed the IMF's program. Tax revenue has significantly increased. The budget deficit continues to decrease and the inflation rate is holding steady.

With CPEC coming online, I expect the energy situation to substantially improve as well. CPEC should propel Pakistan to a high growth rate in the coming decade.

This was expected, and in fact, I'm inclined to believe Harvard's report that indicates Pakistan's growth for the next 10ish years will likely average a little over 5%.

While this is a decent rate of growth, as compared to the last decade, it is still far below where Pakistan needs to be; its aim should be 6.5-7% annual growth, anything less will only cause more problems for Pakistan in the long run.

Sorry to say the only growth i see is in Punjab , all the Jobs advertisement being posted also are of Punjab , and its so sad to see that even govt jobs with min post requires experience of 2-3 years , the biggest problem in this country where can fresh get experience

I've heard from my family in Pakistan, there has been a recent jobs boom in KPK and Baluchistan, don't know how true that is.

Having said that, Punjab is the largest populated province in Pakistan, so it shouldn't come as too much of a surprise that it has the highest level of investment poured into it.

 

[Green Ranger]

This was expected, and in fact, I'm inclined to believe Harvard's report that indicates Pakistan's growth for the next 10ish years will likely average a little over 5%.

While this is a decent rate of growth, as compared to the last decade, it is still far below where Pakistan needs to be; its aim should be 6.5-7% annual growth, anything less will only cause more problems for Pakistan in the long run.


I've heard from my family in Pakistan, there has been a recent jobs boom in KPK and Baluchistan, don't know how true that is.

Having said that, Punjab is the largest populated province in Pakistan, so it shouldn't come as too much of a surprise that it has the highest level of investment poured into it.

Well Sir in such case Karachi generates most revenue , so Sindh should get more jobs , or sindh govt should generate more jobs

 

[That Guy]

Well Sir in such case Karachi generates most revenue , so Sindh should get more jobs , or sindh govt should generate more jobs

That's for the Sindh government to actively work on. If jobs aren't created in Sindh, it is the fault of the Sindhi government, aka PPP and its thug ally, MQM.

 

[LA se Karachi]

This was expected, and in fact, I'm inclined to believe Harvard's report that indicates Pakistan's growth for the next 10ish years will likely average a little over 5%.

While this is a decent rate of growth, as compared to the last decade, it is still far below where Pakistan needs to be; its aim should be 6.5-7% annual growth, anything less will only cause more problems for Pakistan in the long run.


I've heard from my family in Pakistan, there has been a recent jobs boom in KPK and Baluchistan, don't know how true that is.

Having said that, Punjab is the largest populated province in Pakistan, so it shouldn't come as too much of a surprise that it has the highest level of investment poured into it.

Getting to a 5% annual growth rate was definitely expected. But I just didn't expect it as early as next year, that's all. And I agree that it should eventually get to around 7%. But give it time. It's been increasing every year, if slowly, for the past few years.

But SBD-3 says that 5% growth is optimistic for next year, and I can see why for the reasons that he mentioned. So maybe Pakistan won't hit 5% next year, after all. I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

 

[That Guy]

Getting to a 5% annual growth rate was definitely expected. But I just didn't expect it as early as next year, that's all. And I agree that it should eventually get to around 7%. But give it time. It's been increasing every year, if slowly, for the past few years.

But SBD-3 says that 5% growth is optimistic for next year, and I can see why for the reasons that he mentioned. So maybe Pakistan won't hit 5% next year, after all. I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

It will definitely hit 5%, but I don't buy when the government says it will hit 6% in 2018-19 and 7% by 2019-20, those are too ambitions numbers, as Pakistan is still in recovery mode. Perhaps Pakistan should learn from Brazil's economic policies, during Brazil's boom years.

 

[LA se Karachi]

It will definitely hit 5%, but I don't buy when the government says it will hit 6% in 2018-19 and 7% by 2019-20, those are too ambitions numbers, as Pakistan is still in recovery mode. Perhaps Pakistan should learn from Brazil's economic policies, during Brazil's boom years.

I'm skeptical that they will get to 7% growth by 2019/2020 as well. The actual growth rate consistently misses their targets by a bit. So unless they do hit their 5.7% target for next year (unlikely, I think), they won't be on pace to get to 7% annual growth by the end of the decade. But if they can get to 6%+, I will be satisfied.

Brazil would indeed by an interesting case study for Pakistan, given their similarities. I've often thought about that myself. Although, Brazil's economy has been doing rather poorly as of late. But it's still more developed than Pakistan, of course.

 

[That Guy]

I'm skeptical that they will get to 7% growth by 2019/2020 as well. The actual growth rate consistently misses their targets by a bit. So unless they do hit their 5.7% target for next year (unlikely, I think), they won't be on pace to get to 7% annual growth by the end of the decade. But if they can get to 6%+, I will be satisfied.

Brazil would indeed by an interesting case study for Pakistan, given their similarities. I've often thought about that myself. Although, Brazil's economy has been doing rather poorly as of late. But it's still more developed than Pakistan, of course.

Agreed, though the recent down turn in Brazil seems to be due to corruption and a slow down in economic reforms.