A readworthy article about America's rebalance to Asia and the reasons why it may backfire

[Spectre]

Whether we side with US, China or stay neutral, we will still suffer because of our location in this side of the world. We know where we are jumping to if we side with the US or Japan, but we would rather take chances with that (being on the US or Japan side) rather than simply "kowtowing" to China.

In your opinion, what China is doing right now in SCS is not an invasion or expansion but as a benign proposal to protect your country's borders, but for us Filipinos, it is an invasion and you cannot change that mentality that we feel threatened by your government's plan to control the SCS by building islands that could host military installations. Not everyone will agree with what the PH government, US government or your government thinks and wants, but judging is happening at present times, it shows that your government wants everyone to agree with what they want regardless of consequences.

This is why we (or at least many of the Filipinos) support what America recently did.



Then I don't deny that I am being paranoid.

The bigger nation should take of sensitivities of a smaller lesson to avoid misconceptions calm their anxieties acting like a bully and unilateral changing the status quo would only make them more insecure and push them towards other big powers like US and Japan to secure their interests.

China made a mistake by not paying heed to concerns of Vietnam and Philippines and now they can find it very difficult to earn the trust back.

The whole world has it's eyes on what China does next and any brash action would be countered heavily by all parties concerned.

 

[Cossack25A1]

The bigger nation should take of sensitivities of a smaller lesson to avoid misconceptions calm their anxieties acting like a bully and unilateral changing the status quo would only make them more insecure and push them towards other big powers like US and Japan to secure their interests.

China made a mistake by not paying heed to concerns of Vietnam and Philippines and now they can find it very difficult to earn the trust back.

The whole world has it's eyes on what China does next and any brash action would be countered heavily by all parties concerned.

In paper yes, unfortunately, if history is to be looked at, this is not the case - bigger nations end up pushing smaller countries, even if their intentions are for the betterment of their own people.

Well it would really depend if the US would really help because I am pretty sure that there are Americans who prefers not to get entangled here because they will not send their sons and daughters to fight other countries' wars, and the Chinese knows this. Also, in the case of the PH, because we have an upcoming presidential election in 2016, with one candidate's proposal to "normalize" relations with China (essentially reversing the current diplomatic stance in regards to the territorial dispute), thus China regaining trust of the PH (well the government only as I doubt that many Filipinos would trust China) would surface if that presidential candidate wins.

 

[Spectre]

In paper yes, unfortunately, if history is to be looked at, this is not the case - bigger nations end up pushing smaller countries, even if their intentions are for the betterment of their own people.

Well it would really depend if the US would really help because I am pretty sure that there are Americans who prefers not to get entangled here because they will not send their sons and daughters to fight other countries' wars, and the Chinese knows this. Also, in the case of the PH, because we have an upcoming presidential election in 2016, with one candidate's proposal to "normalize" relations with China (essentially reversing the current diplomatic stance in regards to the territorial dispute), thus China regaining trust of the PH (well the government only as I doubt that many Filipinos would trust China) would surface if that presidential candidate wins.

Well one thing to keep in mind is never negotiate from a position of weakness. If China finds you isolated and your govt is pro-chinese then they will fleece you for all they can without Philipine benefiting anything because to them you have lost this scenario politically if not militarily.

It would be better if Philipines makes alliances with Japan, Vietnam and US so that with backing of US and Japan - Philipines can get a better deal along with Vietnam. What China wants to do is to isolate you guys and then use force full tactics to extract tough terms from you during bilateral talks. Don't fall for this basic ruse.

Strength is in unity.

 

[jhungary]

Then I don't deny that I am being paranoid.

lol, I was not talking about you....

I was referring to the Chinese member here, when he start talking about paranoid

 

[Cossack25A1]

Well one thing to keep in mind is never negotiate from a position of weakness. If China finds you isolated and your govt is pro-chinese then they will fleece you for all they can without Philipine benefiting anything because to them you have lost this scenario politically if not militarily.

It would be better if Philipines makes alliances with Japan, Vietnam and US so that with backing of US and Japan - Philipines can get a better deal along with Vietnam. What China wants to do is to isolate you guys and then use force full tactics to extract tough terms from you during bilateral talks. Don't fall for this basic ruse.

Strength is in unity.

The Chinese government always say that they prefer bilateral talks since they now they are in good position in regards to territorial disputes - having a modern (and still modernizing economy), second largest economy and political influence that is slowly expanding outside of Asia. The worst thing that could happen is if the current vice-president of the Philippines, Jejomar Binay wins the 2016 presidential elections because he already states that he will "normalize" relations with China because "China has the money", essentially reversing our stance and could even revoke any possible alliance with Japan and prevent US military from stationing any military units here, just as how our short-sightered politicians voted to kick-out US military back in 1991.

We already have a mutual defense treaty with the US but I don't expect much from them, an alliance with Japan is possible but there are elements here in the PH that distrust whatever the Japanese government is planning due to WW2 while a strategic relations with Vietnam is still in the works.

As for China's attempt to isolate us, it was "visible" in some of the previous ASEAN summits. I just wonder how things will go in the upcoming APEC 2015 summit as it will be held here in the Philippines.

 

[Spectre]

The Chinese government always say that they prefer bilateral talks since they now they are in good position in regards to territorial disputes - having a modern (and still modernizing economy), second largest economy and political influence that is slowly expanding outside of Asia. The worst thing that could happen is if the current vice-president of the Philippines, Jejomar Binay wins the 2016 presidential elections because he already states that he will "normalize" relations with China because "China has the money", essentially reversing our stance and could even revoke any possible alliance with Japan and prevent US military from stationing any military units here, just as how our short-sightered politicians voted to kick-out US military back in 1991.

We already have a mutual defense treaty with the US but I don't expect much from them, an alliance with Japan is possible but there are elements here in the PH that distrust whatever the Japanese government is planning due to WW2 while a strategic relations with Vietnam is still in the works.

As for China's attempt to isolate us, it was "visible" in some of the previous ASEAN summits. I just wonder how things will go in the upcoming APEC 2015 summit as it will be held here in the Philippines.

This could be very bad for future of Philippines - I hope you other leaders can communicate to the public about the risk of capitulation to China and convince them to chart an independent course with support of friends.

 

[Cossack25A1]

This could be very bad for future of Philippines - I hope you other leaders can communicate to the public about the risk of capitulation to China and convince them to chart an independent course with support of friends.

Well I could talk about certain issues about Philippine elections, but this thread is not the right place. Anyways, I just hope that my countrymen will vote right.

 

[Spectre]

Well I could talk about certain issues about Philippine elections, but this thread is not the right place. Anyways, I just hope that my countrymen will vote right.

Make a thread about it, I am sure many of us would be fascinated to know how elections are held and what are the key issues. In India we are having a major state level elections which has got all of us exited. The important thing my friend is to have a elections and get your voice heard.

 

[Place Of Space]

lol, I was not talking about you....

I was referring to the Chinese member here, when he start talking about paranoid

The America is here, I wonder where his paranoid come from.

They should has calm and remain security under America protection, but, expanding extra territory with American support is too hazardous.

 

[21stCentury]

So Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines fear that China will do what USA is already doing right now? USA still has free reign of ECS and SCS, forward operating bases in two of these countries and overtly dictates foreign policies of Philippines and Japan. Vietnam seem to be eager to become US lapdog too. The same US that bombed Vietnam to near oblivion and committed countless war atrocities during the Vietnam war. Seems that Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines have a problem accepting an East Asian Master and can only look up to a White Master.

It's like some odd Stockholm syndrome and racial inferiority complex these countries have.

Someone finally said it.

 

[Zsari]

Be it NATO or SEATO, everyone is just free-loading off the US security umbrella. While US foot only 1/4 of the bill in NATO, it'll probably be upholding at least half in a SEATO. China should welcome such a commitment.

 

[jhungary]

The America is here, I wonder where his paranoid come from.

They should has calm and remain security under America protection, but, expanding extra territory with American support is too hazardous.

I don't understand what were you saying.

 

[Place Of Space]

I don't understand what were you saying.

Which part you don't understand? I'd try to make it understandable.

 

[jhungary]

Which part you don't understand? I'd try to make it understandable.

The whole post, and you can post in Chinese if you want, I think it would be better that way

 

[Place Of Space]

The whole post, and you can post in Chinese if you want, I think it would be better that way

I meant, 1. why she is paranoid or fearsome when the America promise to protect them (my mighty SCS neighboring posters )? 2. It's free the ally use America to protect itself, but it's extraordinary and dangerous they use America to occupy other's territory.
1. 美国在保护菲日，这些人的不安从何而来？
2. 南海国家利用美同盟保护自身安全，无可厚非；用美国力量夺取中国领土，既过分又危险。