A readworthy article about America's rebalance to Asia and the reasons why it may backfire

[Aepsilons]

China can never have enough man.

Strategically tho, like in any game of Chess, you never want to divert your forces from the center pieces. You know? Mobilizing the pawns too far? China shares a vast border with Russia to the north, and another border with India to the south. To the east she is facing Japan and the United States, plus Taiwan. To the southeast -- under her belly she has Vietnam as well.

 

[Spectre]

I suppose nothing making things worse is a strange way of trying to say you want to make them better. Like a young boy harming a young girl he likes because he's afraid to tell her. China knows its actions are damaging its international reputation, creating the very containment trap its trying to avoid and telegraphed or not, and they certainly were with this discussion going on for a few months, China took the right steps in dealing with the US. It shows to the US at least that China can be responsible... for now anyway.

As for the rest of the SCS, I suppose @Nihonjin1051 has it right as it stands today. China can't unless it changes its stance on the SCS and acts in accordance with international law. Their military build up is fine if they don't use it, their economic hegemony is good if they help their neighbors develop, having another policical voice to rationalize with the US is a boon too. Wielding these powers as weapons, that's what has got China in trouble.

I don't have an answer, odd because that's my job as a risk analyst (no answer on short notice anyway), no definitive or concrete steps taken by China today could undo all the damage and distrust that has been sown into its neighbors.



I concur. While their economic interests align, considering Russia problems with Europe right now, and their political dealings help diversify the region away from US interests and influence, Russia still competes with China for resources, economic interests, military concerns and political power in Eurasia. Friends today don't make friends forever.

Very well said from one risk analyst to another - though I concern myself solely with financial risk management

 

[mike jones]

You have to consider India in this situation too as IN and IAF retains some capability to harass China and PLAN fleet to be on the lookout for this. If it is just US then probably India will not interfere but if it is US, Japan and Vietnam then India too has to step in either politically or militarily to cover it's interest,

Just an armchair borne opinion

Another Germany in the making. I feel bad for the Chinese people who have no idea what their government is causing.

 

[jhungary]

You have to consider India in this situation too as IN and IAF retains some capability to harass China and PLAN fleet to be on the lookout for this. If it is just US then probably India will not interfere but if it is US, Japan and Vietnam then India too has to step in either politically or militarily to cover it's interest,

Just an armchair borne opinion

Quite depend on the mood and stance India took that day. as I said, a VPN and PN would be more than enough to harass the PLAN and the hammer blow is as Nihonjin said, would be coming from the north.

Since I only works on how Japan-Vietnam-Philippine can stand against PLAN, so I did not factor in India. The thing is, India and Japan alone have the power to contain China, basically force the Chinese to break up the 3 fleet and engage the IN and JMSDF piecemeal. So yes, if IN is involve, that would the a close ball game even before the American were involved. And if IN+JMSDF+USN, that just round the ball game for China if this is the case.

 

[mike jones]

Quite depend on the mood and stance India took that day. as I said, a VPN and PN would be more than enough to harass the PLAN and the hammer blow is as Nihonjin said, would be coming from the north.

Since I only works on how Japan-Vietnam-Philippine can stand against PLAN, so I did not factor in India. The thing is, India and Japan alone have the power to contain China, basically force the Chinese to break up the 3 fleet and engage the IN and JMSDF piecemeal. So yes, if IN is involve, that would the a close ball game even before the American were involved. And if IN+JMSDF+USN, that just round the ball game for China if this is the case.

Xi Jinping would need 10 clones of himself to deal with this mess. Another Hitler.

 

[Aepsilons]

Quite depend on the mood and stance India took that day. as I said, a VPN and PN would be more than enough to harass the PLAN and the hammer blow is as Nihonjin said, would be coming from the north.

Since I only works on how Japan-Vietnam-Philippine can stand against PLAN, so I did not factor in India. The thing is, India and Japan alone have the power to contain China, basically force the Chinese to break up the 3 fleet and engage the IN and JMSDF piecemeal. So yes, if IN is involve, that would the a close ball game even before the American were involved. And if IN+JMSDF+USN, that just round the ball game for China if this is the case.

Precisely. Dead on. The Indian Navy, US Navy, JMSDF (i won't include ROKN, ROCN just yet ) are strong enough to contain any naval threat in this region. And let's be direct here without trying to be too politically correct on feelings of readers. Its just the truth.

As for Russia? No, the Russians would not engage anything; just like they stayed out of the Korean War in 55'. What doesnt involve them directly they wont intervene.

 

[jhungary]

Xi Jinping would need 10 clones of himself to deal with this mess. Another Hitler.

The problem for PLAN is that they lack the space to expand. The best they can do is to form 4 to 5 fleet. With 4 Forward fleet and 1 Reserve Fleet. and that is it, the coast line of China is not as big as you think, they are about half of what US had, and not being an international fleet, the Chinese do not own any overseas territories. Plus limited their naval deployment.

This problem will persist until China start scoring international bases from expanding its overseas territories (Not talking about lease bases or something like that), but until that day, PLAN would always be outnumber by USN alone, set aside all the allies.

 

[xunzi]

I see a bunch of butthurt over the articles and try to make themselves feel better by cheerleading our defeat in this imagination game. First, how about grow some ball and come stop our islands buildup first? Then at least you know, you get a chance to prove your worth and be the first country to claim "defeating the PLA of PRC" in history? LOL

 

[Cossack25A1]

I may be wrong, but if I remember a bit of history, China had mostly been a land power in ancient times, even though they had a strong navy, with its peak during Ming Dynasty.

 

[jhungary]

Precisely. Dead on. The Indian Navy, US Navy, JMSDF (i won't include ROKN, ROCN just yet ) are strong enough to contain any naval threat in this region. And let's be direct here without trying to be too politically correct on feelings of readers. Its just the truth.

As for Russia? No, the Russians would not engage anything; just like they stayed out of the Korean War in 55'. What doesnt involve them directly they wont intervene.

To be fair.

US 7th and 3rd Fleet alone can contain China if they want to. You are talking about 8 Cruiser, 5 Fleet carriers, 36 destroyers and 4 LHD plus support ship and subs.......That is roughly the number of the whole PLAN fleet....

IN and JMSDF alone can stand against PLAN, both pull about 50 Destroyer and 30+ frigate with 2 Aircraft Carriers and 4 LHDs plus subs and support ships.

Well, if you put US 7th Fleet and 3rd Fleet + Indian Navy + Japan Maritime Self Defence Force, they cannot withstand the onslaught......You are talking about 100+ destroyer squadron + 7 aircraft carrier + 8 guided cruiser and 30+ frigate and 7 LHD and subs + support ship.

That a massive fleet. The only fleet on earth that can stand this alone would probably the rest of USN + USCG....

 

[Aepsilons]

The problem for PLAN is that they lack the space to expand. The best they can do is to form 4 to 5 fleet. With 4 Forward fleet and 1 Reserve Fleet. and that is it, the coast line of China is not as big as you think, they are about half of what US had, and not being an international fleet, the Chinese do not own any overseas territories. Plus limited their naval deployment.

This problem will persist until China start scoring international bases from expanding its overseas territories (Not talking about lease bases or something like that), but until that day, PLAN would always be outnumber by USN alone, set aside all the allies.

I should say that as a Navy man myself, numbers alone don't mean jack squat, as my American boys would say in the usn. LOL.

Having the numbers in paper doesn't mean victory in operation. Because quite frankly the USN is battle tested, time tested, and have the legacy in breaking great naval powers. In fact the USN (as well as the IJN) practically wrote the book on carrier warfare (which was studied by modern navies to this day). Comparing PLAN with the USN is just ridiculous, if you ask me, since the latter is just a legacy unto its own. The level of professionalism, power, and shear expectation in USN is unrivaled. I'm very protective and very biased for JMSDF as an officer. However, I have worked with USN counterparts on various levels and on varies capacities that i can say without a doubt of their (USN personnel) level of professionalism, and expectations that they place on themselves.

The PLAN is largely untested. Period.

 

[Spectre]

I see a bunch of butthurt over the articles and try to make themselves feel better by cheerleading our defeat in this imagination game. First, how about grow some ball and come stop our islands buildup first? Then at least you know, you get a chance to prove your worth and be the first country to claim "defeating the PLA of PRC" in history? LOL

The thing is - Pacifist China is a stabilizing force in this world as evidenced by Chinese contributions in solving contentious Iran Deal lockjam. China can utilize it's economic muscle to deal with countries and bring them in line who otherwise would start frothing in the name of USA.

So No, no one wants to "DEFEAT" China, all the neighboring well wishers want to guide China back to it's peaceful and conciliatory stand. No wants a game of chicken when nuclear armed forces are involved.

 

[xunzi]

I may be wrong, but if I remember a bit of history, China had mostly been a land power in ancient times, even though they had a strong navy, with its peak during Ming Dynasty.

Not really, shipbuilding and sea navigation was practically invented by us until we close ourselves off from the world which Britain industrial revolution to expand and influence all of EU and you know, the rest is history. We fall behind. But make no mistake, we are back with a bang to regain our rights as the protector of Asia!

 

[mike jones]

The problem for PLAN is that they lack the space to expand. The best they can do is to form 4 to 5 fleet. With 4 Forward fleet and 1 Reserve Fleet. and that is it, the coast line of China is not as big as you think, they are about half of what US had, and not being an international fleet, the Chinese do not own any overseas territories. Plus limited their naval deployment.

This problem will persist until China start scoring international bases from expanding its overseas territories (Not talking about lease bases or something like that), but until that day, PLAN would always be outnumber by USN alone, set aside all the allies.

I don't understand why China has to go so far to be recognized as someone important? China is important in an economic way. How about use that towards expansion to mars or other solar systems in our galaxy. JMHO

I see a bunch of butthurt over the articles and try to make themselves feel better by cheerleading our defeat in this imagination game. First, how about grow some ball and come stop our islands buildup first? Then at least you know, you get a chance to prove your worth and be the first country to claim "defeating the PLA of PRC" in history? LOL

Yes, you are powerful. I get it.

 

[Aepsilons]

I may be wrong, but if I remember a bit of history, China had mostly been a land power in ancient times, even though they had a strong navy, with its peak during Ming Dynasty.

They were a naval power but then they self-imposed a ban on themselves. After Zheng He's initiative was over. The Ming were poor tactical planners. And during that time, their administration was bereft with corruption; hence their ultimate defeat by the Manchus (Qing).

But that's a totally different subject matter.